How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Blazing 88's]

1 hour ago, General Jack Ripper said:

I think that's ridiculous. He was kidnapped because he refused to sell his user's data to the government apparatus as Meta and Twitter have already done, and because he refuses to provide a backdoor into his app so the security services can spy on people.

 

So anyway, Ukraine's latest offensive is being blocked in Kursk:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-kursk-fighting-sudzha-a49c55fc367bcbaed2e95e515bf99b80

The rest of the eastern front is collapsing, with Russia having numerical superiority in many areas, and the latest Russian advances putting them behind the Ukrainian defensive positions in some areas. Russia even recently secured an entire town in one day because the defensive positions were completely abandoned. Reports of Russian advances are a daily occurrence:
https://www.wsj.com/world/as-ukraine-invades-russia-kyivs-troops-are-in-trouble-on-the-eastern-front-8a7b1686

And, Ukraine cannot field competent replacements due to shortened training time and the poor quality of conscripts they're scraping off of street corners:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-new-recruits-pokrovsk-ed2d06ad529e3b7e47ecd32f79911b83

But hey, I'm sure the latest wonder weapon will turn the tide any day now. Just two more weeks until Russia runs out of ammo, fractures apart, and collapses, right? Right?

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-artillery/

You see, what has happened is Russia has finally learned the art of the 'inchworm offensive'. Anyone who has played Combat Mission against me will be familiar with this to one extent or another. It's a strategy of attrition. The idea is simple, if you just keep killing the enemy they eventually stop coming. They easily have enough shell production to meet their operational needs, so they simply throw shells at UKR positions until they are abandoned. Then, they move forward with small elements like Platoon or Company size, occupy the position, and then repeat on the next UKR position in line. While you were snickering at the video of Russian soldiers using golf carts to advance, you forgot to note the fact they advanced and successfully seized the position.

This has been a continuous process since the start of the year. Almost daily you hear of Russian platoon and company size elements taking one small position after another, even if it's just a single field, or a street. This happens EVERY DAY. They're not successful everywhere, but with enough pressure being applied in enough places, they've figured out the UKR are not strong enough to hold them back everywhere. In some areas long quiet sections of front have suddenly seen new activity and advances. In some places even the Ukrainians outright admit the Russians have a significant local superiority in manpower.

They've also figured out that no amount of money is going to replace a military industrial complex that has been allowed to decay and rot because 'civilized people ain't a gonna study war no more' and our recent military engagements against Afghan farmers with rusty AK's haven't exactly prepared us for a high intensity war against a near-peer adversary. The leaked intelligence information (thank you War Thunder Community!) has pointed out this fact, and it is known to the higher ups in NATO and the U.S. It will take YEARS of production to replace the ammunition that has already been sent to Ukraine, and current rates of supply are only a fraction of what is needed to maintain the front line.

This is right in line with everything I explained to all of you years ago. Same stuff, different schedule. Ukraine is still going to lose. You will cheer loudly from the sideline, post memes, salivate over drone strike vids, and dream of the grand wonder weapon that will turn the tide if only they can produce enough of them... Meanwhile Russia will keep turning Ukrainians into hamburger with a bottomless supply of 122mm shells, and an apparent ability to conjure fresh tanks out of nothing but scrap iron. Oh wait, those are called FACTORIES.

Anyway, before I get yelled at because the tone of my typing is OFFENSIVE (or Steve starts posting 1945 Luftwaffe fighter numbers as if that means anything to the argument about air superiority, what a trip that was... ), I'm going to take my leave.

See y'all on the Matrix Games forum, or not. I don't care.

- General Jack Ripper

P.S. When pic-related is the absolute state of discussion on this issue, you can see how frustrating it has been trying to have an actual productive conversation on this issue. Military analysis relies on maintaining a disinterested perspective so one can clearly analyze and interpret the facts, and also to sort the facts from propaganda. Something I think the majority of members engaged with this topic are lacking.

P.P.S. Oh, and by the way, I still haven't made a 'pro-Russia' statement. Last time I came here some forum members tried to paint me as some 'Putin Apologist' or 'Pro Russia Troll' and I think that's sad. Y'all really need to grow up.

 

 

Edited August 29 by Blazing 88's

[alison]

41 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

I think that's ridiculous. He was kidnapped because he refused to sell his user's data to the government apparatus as Meta and Twitter have already done, and because he refuses to provide a backdoor into his app so the security services can spy on people.

There are some things in your post and I somewhat agree with and others that I do not, but I am not qualified to comment on. This, however, is related to my day job, so I can more confidently say that it is not an accurate reading of the situation.

Firstly, this is not a kidnapping, it is an arrest. The man was detained by law enforcement and charged with a crime. You might disagree with the laws that led to the criminal charges, but that doesn't make it an illegal kidnapping. If you are worried that people people are accusing you of being a pro Putin troll, it is likely because of takes like this that ignore the rule of law in a western, democratic country and imagine instead that its "government apparatus" is nothing more than a bunch of thugs.

Secondly, the internet isn't a magical libertarian wonderland where people get to ignore the laws of the countries they visit in real life. I know that's what we hackers all once hoped or dreamed it could be, but that fantasy died 30+ years ago when it turned out the biggest problem wasn't just a bunch of nerds sharing pirated software and movies, it was organized crime rings and violent extremists and distributors of CSAM using this new tech to aid the kind of villainy that most people in the world find unacceptable. As such, there is little appetite amongst the general public for laws that would protect those who enable it.

In general, platform operators don't get to say that they believe in freedom of speech and thus absolve themselves of responsibility for any and all crimes that are committed on their platforms. The law does not care about people's abstract principles. If there is an open criminal investigation involving users of a platform and the owner of that platform chooses not to comply with law enforcement, they can be held liable. If Telegram was a legitimate end-to-end encrypted service, they may have better luck responding to law enforcement with a "well, we'd like to help, but technically it's impossible for us to give you the data you're asked for, since we do not have it", but Telegram is largely not an end-to-end encrypted service. This means the company cannot claim plausible deniability when law enforcement inevitably makes requests.

That said, in democratic countries there is a presumption of innocence, so this guy will get his time in court and have the chance to defend himself. That's how the system works. Ideally, in a democratic country, if large numbers of innocent people keep getting arrested and charged and then not convicted, the populace will be outraged enough to demand a change to the laws or restrict the powers of law enforcement. In fact, exactly that has happened in some democratic countries in recent years, to varying degrees of success, and some might say the pendulum has already swung or is starting to swing back in the other direction. Again, that's the system working as intended.

It's very different when you're talking about actual authoritarian countries where people actually do get detained or disappeared - for years - on vague charges of picking quarrels and provoking trouble. The west is far from perfect, but we have to place some degree of trust in our systems, otherwise the authoritarians already won the battle for hearts and minds.

 

[FancyCat]

personal drone detectors. less than 100 euros, main issue is production capacity. 

https://militaeraktuell.at/schachtelweise-bonbons-ukrainische-soldaten/

 

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, General Jack Ripper said:

I think that's ridiculous. He was kidnapped because he refused to sell his user's data to the government apparatus as Meta and Twitter have already done, and because he refuses to provide a backdoor into his app so the security services can spy on people.

 

So anyway, Ukraine's latest offensive is being blocked in Kursk:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-kursk-fighting-sudzha-a49c55fc367bcbaed2e95e515bf99b80

The rest of the eastern front is collapsing, with Russia having numerical superiority in many areas, and the latest Russian advances putting them behind the Ukrainian defensive positions in some areas. Russia even recently secured an entire town in one day because the defensive positions were completely abandoned. Reports of Russian advances are a daily occurrence:
https://www.wsj.com/world/as-ukraine-invades-russia-kyivs-troops-are-in-trouble-on-the-eastern-front-8a7b1686

And, Ukraine cannot field competent replacements due to shortened training time and the poor quality of conscripts they're scraping off of street corners:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-new-recruits-pokrovsk-ed2d06ad529e3b7e47ecd32f79911b83

But hey, I'm sure the latest wonder weapon will turn the tide any day now. Just two more weeks until Russia runs out of ammo, fractures apart, and collapses, right? Right?

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-artillery/

You see, what has happened is Russia has finally learned the art of the 'inchworm offensive'. Anyone who has played Combat Mission against me will be familiar with this to one extent or another. It's a strategy of attrition. The idea is simple, if you just keep killing the enemy they eventually stop coming. They easily have enough shell production to meet their operational needs, so they simply throw shells at UKR positions until they are abandoned. Then, they move forward with small elements like Platoon or Company size, occupy the position, and then repeat on the next UKR position in line. While you were snickering at the video of Russian soldiers using golf carts to advance, you forgot to note the fact they advanced and successfully seized the position.

This has been a continuous process since the start of the year. Almost daily you hear of Russian platoon and company size elements taking one small position after another, even if it's just a single field, or a street. This happens EVERY DAY. They're not successful everywhere, but with enough pressure being applied in enough places, they've figured out the UKR are not strong enough to hold them back everywhere. In some areas long quiet sections of front have suddenly seen new activity and advances. In some places even the Ukrainians outright admit the Russians have a significant local superiority in manpower.

They've also figured out that no amount of money is going to replace a military industrial complex that has been allowed to decay and rot because 'civilized people ain't a gonna study war no more' and our recent military engagements against Afghan farmers with rusty AK's haven't exactly prepared us for a high intensity war against a near-peer adversary. The leaked intelligence information (thank you War Thunder Community!) has pointed out this fact, and it is known to the higher ups in NATO and the U.S. It will take YEARS of production to replace the ammunition that has already been sent to Ukraine, and current rates of supply are only a fraction of what is needed to maintain the front line.

This is right in line with everything I explained to all of you years ago. Same stuff, different schedule. Ukraine is still going to lose. You will cheer loudly from the sideline, post memes, salivate over drone strike vids, and dream of the grand wonder weapon that will turn the tide if only they can produce enough of them... Meanwhile Russia will keep turning Ukrainians into hamburger with a bottomless supply of 122mm shells, and an apparent ability to conjure fresh tanks out of nothing but scrap iron. Oh wait, those are called FACTORIES.

Anyway, before I get yelled at because the tone of my typing is OFFENSIVE (or Steve starts posting 1945 Luftwaffe fighter numbers as if that means anything to the argument about air superiority, what a trip that was... ), I'm going to take my leave.

See y'all on the Matrix Games forum, or not. I don't care.

- General Jack Ripper

P.S. When pic-related is the absolute state of discussion on this issue, you can see how frustrating it has been trying to have an actual productive conversation on this issue. Military analysis relies on maintaining a disinterested perspective so one can clearly analyze and interpret the facts, and also to sort the facts from propaganda. Something I think the majority of members engaged with this topic are lacking.

P.P.S. Oh, and by the way, I still haven't made a 'pro-Russia' statement. Last time I came here some forum members tried to paint me as some 'Putin Apologist' or 'Pro Russia Troll' and I think that's sad. Y'all really need to grow up.

These are really just more opinions, mate, even with links under AP or WSJ bylines. There isn't really 'analysis' here.

And even if your opinions about Ukraine bayonet strength and Western stockpiles redlining are closer to what you claim than most of us here believe (I have always worried about these things myself)...

...it seems you and your sources have totally disregarded Russian losses. These now amount to the majority of its professional trained military, which is much of why they can't organise any kind of large scale attacks or exploitations or 'cauldrons', just a succession of clumsy trench raids (the other reasons for this are the ones folks here keep commenting on; massing is lethal for either side).

Yes, it seems they keep gnawing through ruined towns in Donetsk, with the Ukes often forced to cede those permanently to conserve their own men, but at the ridiculous blood price they are still clearly paying for each one, they're going to run out of (badly trained, badly supplied) levies long before Ukraine runs out of those towns, or its own defenders. This just isn't the old Russia, with bottomless hordes. It plain isn't.

But hey, that's all just my own opinion.

TL DR  'If you keep killing them eventually they stop coming' runs both ways.

[ArmouredTopHat]

4 hours ago, General Jack Ripper said:

You see, what has happened is Russia has finally learned the art of the 'inchworm offensive'. Anyone who has played Combat Mission against me will be familiar with this to one extent or another. It's a strategy of attrition. The idea is simple, if you just keep killing the enemy they eventually stop coming. They easily have enough shell production to meet their operational needs, so they simply throw shells at UKR positions until they are abandoned. Then, they move forward with small elements like Platoon or Company size, occupy the position, and then repeat on the next UKR position in line. While you were snickering at the video of Russian soldiers using golf carts to advance, you forgot to note the fact they advanced and successfully seized the position.

This has been a continuous process since the start of the year. Almost daily you hear of Russian platoon and company size elements taking one small position after another, even if it's just a single field, or a street. This happens EVERY DAY. They're not successful everywhere, but with enough pressure being applied in enough places, they've figured out the UKR are not strong enough to hold them back everywhere. In some areas long quiet sections of front have suddenly seen new activity and advances. In some places even the Ukrainians outright admit the Russians have a significant local superiority in manpower.

They've also figured out that no amount of money is going to replace a military industrial complex that has been allowed to decay and rot because 'civilized people ain't a gonna study war no more' and our recent military engagements against Afghan farmers with rusty AK's haven't exactly prepared us for a high intensity war against a near-peer adversary. The leaked intelligence information (thank you War Thunder Community!) has pointed out this fact, and it is known to the higher ups in NATO and the U.S. It will take YEARS of production to replace the ammunition that has already been sent to Ukraine, and current rates of supply are only a fraction of what is needed to maintain the front line.

This is right in line with everything I explained to all of you years ago. Same stuff, different schedule. Ukraine is still going to lose. You will cheer loudly from the sideline, post memes, salivate over drone strike vids, and dream of the grand wonder weapon that will turn the tide if only they can produce enough of them... Meanwhile Russia will keep turning Ukrainians into hamburger with a bottomless supply of 122mm shells, and an apparent ability to conjure fresh tanks out of nothing but scrap iron. Oh wait, those are called FACTORIES.

Anyway, before I get yelled at because the tone of my typing is OFFENSIVE (or Steve starts posting 1945 Luftwaffe fighter numbers as if that means anything to the argument about air superiority, what a trip that was... ), I'm going to take my leave.

See y'all on the Matrix Games forum, or not. I don't care.

- General Jack Ripper

P.S. When pic-related is the absolute state of discussion on this issue, you can see how frustrating it has been trying to have an actual productive conversation on this issue. Military analysis relies on maintaining a disinterested perspective so one can clearly analyze and interpret the facts, and also to sort the facts from propaganda. Something I think the majority of members engaged with this topic are lacking.

P.P.S. Oh, and by the way, I still haven't made a 'pro-Russia' statement. Last time I came here some forum members tried to paint me as some 'Putin Apologist' or 'Pro Russia Troll' and I think that's sad. Y'all really need to grow up.

Good lord, this was something to witness. Its not often someone makes a clown of themselves as much as you do on a forum such as this. 

What you said was really just a lot of yapping while entirely ignoring the unsustainable costs Russia is paying for these gains. The rates of advance (That show no sign of actually really significantly speeding up no matter how many times you lot call them 'breakthroughs') remain sluggish. You do realise that attritional fights are rarely won by the attacking side right? Have you not seen the increasingly desperate equipment situation in the Russian inventories as they run out of their soviet inheritance?

I think the reason you are called Pro Russian is because you are literally taking Russian talking points that say crap like: 'Russian victory is inevitable' Whilst ignoring the constant blunders, heavy losses and growing problems on the Russian side that continued to make it clear that Russia are in a hopeless situation with little to show for it. Not to mention they just casually got themselves invaded and lost more ground to the supposedly 'losing' side than what they took in offensive actions in a -year-.

You people keep saying Ukraine has no reserves left, yet stuff like Kursk happens and you just bury your heads in the sand.
 

4 hours ago, General Jack Ripper said:

The rest of the eastern front is collapsing

Its amusing how often you people say this yet the front doesn't actually collapse. Do you know what the term actually means?
 

4 hours ago, General Jack Ripper said:

While you were snickering at the video of Russian soldiers using golf carts to advance, you forgot to note the fact they advanced and successfully seized the position.

You do realise that the majority of these attacks fail right? That they are losing said platoons or companies constantly in these relentless attacks? That this loss rate (which has been consistently higher than previous years) is horribly unsustainable in both manpower and vehicles? You are literally praising what should be really viewed as a horribly wasteful method of waging war that is going to cost the Russians in the long run while yielding indecisive results. 

 

4 hours ago, General Jack Ripper said:

This has been a continuous process since the start of the year. Almost daily you hear of Russian platoon and company size elements taking one small position after another, even if it's just a single field, or a street. This happens EVERY DAY. They're not successful everywhere, but with enough pressure being applied in enough places, they've figured out the UKR are not strong enough to hold them back everywhere. In some areas long quiet sections of front have suddenly seen new activity and advances. In some places even the Ukrainians outright admit the Russians have a significant local superiority in manpower.

Yet despite this, Russian gains on the operational level have been pretty much zero. Its only now that they are even threatening a supply hub...after spending the better part of a year losing manpower and equipment. What have the Russians actually achieved in the last year?
 

4 hours ago, General Jack Ripper said:

They've also figured out that no amount of money is going to replace a military industrial complex that has been allowed to decay and rot because 'civilized people ain't a gonna study war no more' and our recent military engagements against Afghan farmers with rusty AK's haven't exactly prepared us for a high intensity war against a near-peer adversary. The leaked intelligence information (thank you War Thunder Community!) has pointed out this fact, and it is known to the higher ups in NATO and the U.S. It will take YEARS of production to replace the ammunition that has already been sent to Ukraine, and current rates of supply are only a fraction of what is needed to maintain the front line.

Another amusing take that reeks of some particular conservative opinions. Yeah NATO and the US just entirely forgot how to fight conventional war because they collectively have the memory of a goldfish or something. So why is Russia so deathly afraid of said conventional war with NATO for some reason? Do you casually forget that NATO performs numerous exercises to simulate peer to peer engagements? (generous to assume the Russians at this point have peer to peer capability to NATO in most respects)

Also, its amusing how you focus on artillery ammunition so much when its not a particular priority of NATO fighting power compared to the elephant in the room that is air power. NATO production of artillery could certainly be better, but lets not pretend that the Russian army would survive for very long against a dedicated NATO air campaign, especially against 5th generation platforms that can happily slaughter RU AD with little fear of effective retaliation, or the literally avalange of cruise missile and air delivered munitions. Ukraine have shown that just a handful of these platforms have caused the Russians numerous headaches. To think that NATO is far better equipped in comparison. 

But sure, keep on peddling the nonsense that NATO has no equipment reserves at all and is quaking in its boots. Lets just ignore the fact that the Russians are desperately stripping units on NATO borders to make up for losses in Ukraine shall we?

 

4 hours ago, General Jack Ripper said:

and an apparent ability to conjure fresh tanks out of nothing but scrap iron. Oh wait, those are called FACTORIES.

You are mistaking conversions of old chassis as new production. Russia is not making new vehicles at anything close to replace current attrition rates. Even with refurbs factored in its still not enough, and said suitable platforms for refurbishment are running dry fast. You laugh at NATO countries not having production capability, yet Russia cant even produce artillery barrels at scale. Did you think Russia was using MTLBs instead of BMPs and BTRs to make things fairer instead of it being a reflection of growing shortages or something?

Russian production has peaked (they are not really building factories and current factories are on constant shifts) and their supply of refurb candidates is drying up fast. Any analysis worth its salt points out that 2025 is going to be very painful for Russia as their soviet inheritance begins to dry up properly. Its not going to stop the AFU from destroying more and more vehicles over time either. 
 

4 hours ago, General Jack Ripper said:

Meanwhile Russia will keep turning Ukrainians into hamburger with a bottomless supply of 122mm shells,

Ah yes, its such a bottomless supply that they had to get shells from North Korea and Iran to sustain themselves. This also totally fixes the barrel wear issue that the Russians continue to complain about too! Do you even pay attention to Russian telegrams?
 

4 hours ago, General Jack Ripper said:

You see, what has happened is Russia has finally learned the art of the 'inchworm offensive'.

Ah yes, Russia is really redefining the art of war and showing us all how its done...by bashing their heads into defensive positions again and again. And you call it a 'masterstroke' because the odd attack gains a trench system. You seem to be the kind of guy would of watched Verdun and cheered it as a viable means of bleeding the french to death while ignoring what was happening to the Germans. You need to get it out of your head that this is the Soviet Red army that can afford to lose hundreds of thousands of people a year, its not.

Overall, your words are only offensive because of how brain dead they are and devoid of analysis. The fact you are gloating and patting yourself over the back with such cocksure 'analysis' is the perfect finishing touch. Worthy of the average Russian propagandist. 

I dont think you belong here to be entirely honest. 

Edited August 29 by ArmouredTopHat

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

I dont think you belong here to be entirely honest. 

Ripper has been an active and valuable member of this gaming community for decades. How much CM do you play?

He has as much right to his opinion here as you do; if you disagree, refute him.

But YOU definitely don't get to decide who 'belongs' here.

[ArmouredTopHat]

39 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Ripper has been an active and valuable member of this gaming community for decades. How much CM do you play?

He has as much right to his opinion here as you do; if you disagree, refute him.

But YOU definitely don't get to decide who 'belongs' here.

Ripper being a long term member does not grant him immunity from having his horrible views called out for what they are in this particular space. I was referring to this forum post in particular when I said he did not belong here with his takes. I honestly dont care about anything else he does, he's free to do as he pleases. His takes are pretty insulting to the Ukrainians dying to protect their country so forgive me for being pretty blunt. 

As for how much combat mission I have played? Well while it has nothing to do with this discussion really, I'll bite:




Just because I have not been active on this forum for long doesn't mean I am exactly new to the franchise, so please dont assume if you dont mind?

Edited August 29 by ArmouredTopHat

[amadeupname]

4 hours ago, General Jack Ripper said:

(or Steve starts posting 1945 Luftwaffe fighter numbers

I'm curious what he means by this

[Rinaldi]

4 hours ago, General Jack Ripper said:

You see, what has happened is Russia has finally learned the art of the 'inchworm offensive'. Anyone who has played Combat Mission against me....

 

Bahahahahaha

 

Quote

 

- General Jack Ripper

Filing this under the growing list of "user handles named after characters they don't realise are a caricature"

 

Quote

 

He has as much right to his opinion here as you do; if you disagree, refute him.

 

Fair play. Here's my opinion: he's a clown.

Edited August 29 by Rinaldi

[Jiggathebauce]

20 minutes ago, Rinaldi said:

 

 

Filing this under the growing list of "user handles named after characters they don't realise are a caricature"

Surprised his name isn't General Haig

[Carolus]

Magyar's birds are heading into the Pokrovsk direction to help.

But on his channel, he mentioned new restrictions from China on the export of quadcopter parts. This is a big concern for Ukrainian drone units and their assembly teams.

Automatic translation is not brilliant but you get the gist:

Quote

The aftertaste of this "ni hao" - restrictions from September 1 will come gradually, like the stages of cancer, sorry. 

Get ready for a new test for everything related to the use of drones.

And it will be disproportionate to temporary shortages of ammunition. They (ammunition, not drones) are sometimes dropped by the Partners. 

This will not be the case with drones. It will be expensive and scarce. Well, a couple dozen new millionaires will appear. Different "suits".

I believe that the restriction described below will become one of the components of our "shrinkage" at the negotiating table. 

And not at all on parity terms. 

About the next wave of export restrictions from the Celestial language. 

A month ago, the Chinese government announced restrictions from September 1 on the export of a number of UAV-related goods from the country. 

The announcement of those restrictions went unnoticed, because "ringing the bell" in our country often borders on "rejoicing", and there are no authoritative China-analyst experts in Ukraine. 

That's why the asshole was chased and driven through profile chats. Probably, local manufacturers (and our assemblers are also called that, although the developments are not the best in the world, but all are assembled on imported Chinese components into ready-made products) all working capital went into those purchases of spare parts, because they have obligations and/or a feeling of a solid premium on scarce, because prohibited, goods.

Stocks are not limitless, but the smuggling routes of delivery of prohibited goods are different between us and the enemy, to put it mildly. 

Thus, already yesterday and today, all tangents received the following announcements for the largest carriers:

"Dear customers .... ....

We draw your attention to important changes in the list of goods that are prohibited to be transported weighing up to 30 kg.

From September 1, 2024, exports from China will be subject to even stricter inspections. Prohibited items will not be available for air and sea shipping.

From September 1, 2024, we will no longer be able to accept the following goods for transportation:

Carbon frame for a quadcopter

Carbon beam for a quadcopter

Quadcopter

Quadcopter motor

A set of components for a quadcopter

A set of frames for quadcopters

Navigation camera for a quadcopter

Flight controller for a quadcopter

Landing gear for a quadcopter

Propeller for a quadcopter

Quadcopter frame

Signal amplifier for the quadcopter remote control

Digital data transmission system for quadcopter

Digital radio communication detector

Radio system

Radio station

The walkie-talkie is portable

Video signal transmission system via radio channel

EB system..."

Situational guilt - ****. 

Let's **** how much strength is enough. 

https://t.me/robert_magyar/918

[FancyCat]

Mind you, China has been pressured to do more to restrict supplies of drone parts being exported to Russia. These export restrictions are side effects of the pressure. Sadly, as I mentioned before, everyone relies on Chinese underlying exports to help fuel essential aspects of their war material. Hopefully, with the ample money the West has will be enough to ensure supply lines for drone parts get underway for Ukraine and Russia will be squeezed by their worsening economic position. 

[omae2]

22 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Mind you, China has been pressured to do more to restrict supplies of drone parts being exported to Russia. These export restrictions are side effects of the pressure. Sadly, as I mentioned before, everyone relies on Chinese underlying exports to help fuel essential aspects of their war material. Hopefully, with the ample money the West has will be enough to ensure supply lines for drone parts get underway for Ukraine and Russia will be squeezed by their worsening economic position. 

I wonder why Europe still rely on chinese exports on these items. We should manufacture them with our ample money, not wasting on overpriced and unreliable sources. Not to mention that smuggling from china into russia is of no problem if both government gives the nod to it. Its pretty obvious where china stands on this conflict.

[Carolus]

3 minutes ago, omae2 said:

I wonder why Europe still rely on chinese exports on these items. We should manufacture them with our ample money, not wasting on overpriced and unreliable sources. Not to mention that smuggling from china into russia is of no problem if both government gives the nod to it. Its pretty obvious where china stands on this conflict.

Exactly what the Ukrainian channels are concerned about and Magyar mentions in his post.

The smuggling to Russia from China is a given. 

The smuggling from China to Ukraine...

[Tux]

9 hours ago, billbindc said:

I remember it so well I used the urinal he climbed over to escape in the Au Pied du Cochon bathroom in his honor many times. 

 

9 hours ago, sburke said:

I hear it is a Five guys now.  Yikes.

 

9 hours ago, billbindc said:

Indeed, it is. Le Diplomate has excellent escargot though.

If you two weren't wearing fake moustaches and checking for tails while typing this exchange I will be very disappointed.

[Tux]

5 hours ago, amadeupname said:

I'm curious what he means by this

I didn't see the original post but Germany's late-war fighter production hit record highs.  I imagine Steve's point was something to do with the fact that that had zero impact on the Jagdwaffe's ability to challenge Allied air superiority.

[Carolus]

38 minutes ago, Tux said:

I didn't see the original post but Germany's late-war fighter production hit record highs.  I imagine Steve's point was something to do with the fact that that had zero impact on the Jagdwaffe's ability to challenge Allied air superiority.

Yeah. No one today would think that Germany was on the way to win in 1944 or 1945 and turn it all around.

But in pure numbers, despite sanctions, blockades, strategic bombing and Allied overmatch in every conceivable way, German weapon production increased almost up March or April 1945. 

[Degsy]

 

Tweets quoted on the War Translated X page today, from a couple of Russians who are stressing about whether the Ukrainian "collapse" in the Donbas is actually a trap.  The first tweet comes from Evgeny Norin, who is a journalist with RT; the second is from Ilya Yansen, an activist, a pro Kremlin blogger and general all round funster who's previously written,     “We need the kind of terror the world has never seen before...We need [a situation where] any pro-Ukrainian person in Russia would be afraid to leave their room.Meanwhile, Ukraine must go up in flames with hundreds and thousands of widows in the hinterland weeping and wailing.”

 

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1829073131744456873/photo/1

[Carolus]

As a small aside: Basically overnight I have seen Western manufacturers of electronic and electric components (specifically those who manufacture as per MIL standards) add a page to their websites which is about drones.

"We are specialists in drone parts! Do you want drone parts? Did you know we know about drones too? Have a look at our parts which happen to be really good for drones as well, by the way!" 

Each one reads like they sat down the same marketing kid and had them punch out that website page over the weekend, adding some computer generated pictures of quadcopters and octocopters (I was there, I recognise the writing style).

But anyway, the coordination with which one company after another has put them put them out is nothing short of amusing.

Godamn I love capitalism.

 

Edited August 29 by Carolus
typos

[LongLeftFlank]

My impressions of the overall state of the Donetsk 'direction' are as follows. Please do chime in and correct:

1.  With the fall of Niu York, the Russians have, after 2.5 years of extremely costly infantry assaults and bombardments, finally captured the entirety of the pre-2022 Ukrainian deeply fortified line, which was heavily embedded in industrial townships.

2. With its own infantry being depleted and exhausted, UA isn't able to retake these bastions, so is now fighting a Normandy bocage style defence in the countryside behind, using 'denuded fronts' and relying heavily on indirect fires and drones to keep the Ivans bleeding hard for every yard. 

3. A RU tweet posted a little while back noted that beyond this 'countryside' there's yet another belt of heavy industrial towns that the Ukes are busily fortifying using their learnings from the last couple of years to create Russia's latest Verdun. If I had time and access to Xitter, I'd do some mapwork but I'm sure Africk the Finnish guys or someone else out there has pinned out that line.

4. The aforementioned Russian offensives first bled out the LPDR/DPDR separ militias, then Wagner's convicts, and by this spring forced the withdrawal of the VDV and Marines for refit and replenishment. The summer assaults have been kept going by a grab bag of rear area 'contract' troops repurposed (unwillingly) as infantry, and foreign mercs.

5.  I believe some 30 refitted and drone-savvy VDV battalions, plus a new wave of expendable 'meat' and sapper units (Norks?) will return to action in a winter offensive (Putin's Wacht am Rein?) aimed at:

(a) piercing this defensive belt (possibly resorting to chemical weapons to do so?)

(b) killing about as many hohols as they lose katsaps (good luck with that) to ensure there's no meaningful counteroffensive;

(c) if possible securing Kramatorsk/Liman;

(d) declaring victory and forcing a settlement, especially with a Trump presidency.

6.  This winter offensive could be disrupted if Putin faces a major internal uprising, revolts in Belarus, Caucasia, etc.

[Sgt Joch]

On Durov, I would take the charges with a grain of salt at this point, as with any other court case, the devil is in the detail.

The child pornography charges sound bad and of course the prosecutors will trumpet that, but the question will inevitably be what exactly did he do? If he is only being charged because child porn was being transmitted on his platform without his knowledge, exactly what should his liability be? On the same basis you could charge the CEO of Facebook, Google, etc. OTOH, if he is somewhat complicit, that is a different set of facts.

You also have to be careful to assume that just because he is being charged in France, that the normal rules apply. The Continent’s criminal system is generally based on Civil Law and the investigating magistrates have a lot of power and leeway in how they conduct their investigations. Defendants have a lot less legal safeguards than in Common Law jurisdictions like the good old USA or Canada.

In a larger sense, this also points to an increasing regulation of the internet. The internet/social media is brand new in historical term, barely 25 years and so far has been the Wild West. The law is still grappling with how to deal with it and pretty much just playing catch-up.  In the UK, we are seeing people being sent to jail for 2-3 years for what they posted on the internet:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm23y7l01v8o

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c703e03w243o

obviously extreme cases, but one of the basic tenets of English Criminal Law is that you should only be held liable for your actions and not your thoughts. We could argue what side of the fence, i.e. “thoughts” vs “actions”, these fellas were on, but things on the internet are changing fast.

Personally, I now advise all my clients to minimize all their social media exposure as much as possible and to think twice or thrice before posting anything. You never know what will come back to bite you.

Edited August 29 by Sgt Joch

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

My impressions of the overall state of the Donetsk 'direction' are as follows. Please do chime in and correct:

1.  With the fall of Niu York, the Russians have, after 2.5 years of extremely costly infantry assaults and bombardments, finally captured the entirety of the pre-2022 Ukrainian deeply fortified line, which was heavily embedded in industrial townships.

2. With its own infantry being depleted and exhausted, UA isn't able to retake these bastions, so is now fighting a Normandy bocage style defence in the countryside behind, using 'denuded fronts' and relying heavily on indirect fires and drones to keep the Ivans bleeding hard for every yard. 

3. A RU tweet posted a little while back noted that beyond this 'countryside' there's yet another belt of heavy industrial towns that the Ukes are busily fortifying using their learnings from the last couple of years to create Russia's latest Verdun. If I had time and access to Xitter, I'd do some mapwork but I'm sure Africk the Finnish guys or someone else out there has pinned out that line.

4. The aforementioned Russian offensives first bled out the LPDR/DPDR separ militias, then Wagner's convicts, and by this spring forced the withdrawal of the VDV and Marines for refit and replenishment. The summer assaults have been kept going by a grab bag of rear area 'contract' troops repurposed (unwillingly) as infantry, and foreign mercs.

5.  I believe some 30 refitted and drone-savvy VDV battalions, plus a new wave of expendable 'meat' and sapper units (Norks?) will return to action in a winter offensive (Putin's Wacht am Rein?) aimed at:

(a) piercing this defensive belt (possibly resorting to chemical weapons to do so?)

(b) killing about as many hohols as they lose katsaps (good luck with that) to ensure there's no meaningful counteroffensive;

(c) if possible securing Kramatorsk/Liman;

(d) declaring victory and forcing a settlement, especially with a Trump presidency.

6.  This winter offensive could be disrupted if Putin faces a major internal uprising, revolts in Belarus, Caucasia, etc.

My sense on this main front is that one side or the other will likely need a full on operational-to-strategic collapse for any real gains to be made. Russia has been attacking by inches but Ukraine has a lot of inches. Politically we know Putin has been avoiding another mobilization and will run out of manoeuvre room as he continues to chew up forces. Ukraine has noted manning shortfalls and is not immune to severe buckling under pressures. As attrition warfare goes, this is a race to the bottom. The UA does seem to have qualitative advantages in their ability to strike high value low density RA targets - US ISR support is very likely the edge here. But the RA has adopted such a low quality energy state that it does not need high end assets to simply keep pushing down roads.

What we have not seen are major shifts in two main areas - deep strike and air power (related but not the same thing). We have seen no evidence of a coherent operational deep strike campaign by either side in some time. Logistics is the key vulnerability and both sides have appeared to have adapted.  As to air power - no one has solved for superiority.  And here we are talking from drones to conventional. No side has been able to translate that superiority into either manoeuvre or corrosive warfare.

So what? Well I am skeptical of headlines. We have a 21st century entertainment-driven news media that is trying to get clicks etc, in a slow grinding attritional war. So flashy headlines pushing either sides narratives need to be really taken with a lot of seasoning. Until we see clear evidence of systemic collapse, the lines on the ground to not matter as much as people are making out. This applies for Kursk or Donetsk. This is not Risk - Russia does not get extra armies because it takes “tiny Ukraine town X” or vice versa. Terrain advantages do not mean what they used to either. A transparent illuminated battlefield does not need “high ground.” Roads and LOCs still matter but even there I am not sure former models apply. Urban areas mean almost nothing as they 1) offer no military advantage, 2) very few strategic ones. They only offer political spin advantages as we are all told the names of whatever burg gets got. Political spin only matters if one buys into it - it is the land of power and theatre.

So here we are in a slow burn war with spurts and sparks. But until one side really buckles, likely at high levels - it will remain this way. Both sides are looking at few viable military strategic options by this point. Beyond hold on and keep going for “reasons”. Here Russia has a significant disadvantage. A Russian official was quoted before this war as telling the West “we will win in Ukraine because we care more than you do.”  There is truth to this, but there are a bunch of people who care more about Ukraine than the Russians….the Ukrainians. And Russia has failed to subdue them before they could link up and form a coherent resistance. That resistance turned into a conventional military defence that has essentially broken the Russian military as we knew it. It may break the entire freaking country. 

For me, watching this war feels like spending the night in an old house. A lot of strange noises: creaks, groans, mice in the walls. But not every sigh from the old girl means collapse. When we see plaster falling from the ceiling and skeletons in the walls, then we will have something to worry about.

[ArmouredTopHat]

You know its bad the moment they start to classify and hide the actual details of the economy. 

[alison]

27 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

The child pornography charges sound bad and of course the prosecutors will trumpet that, but the question will inevitably be what exactly did he do? If he is only being charged because child porn was being transmitted on his platform without his knowledge [emphasis added], exactly what should his liability be? On the same basis you could charge the CEO of Facebook, Google, etc. OTOH, if he is somewhat complicit, that is a different set of facts.

There is no plausible deniability when you run a digital platform that stores or transmits unencrypted user content. Even if you don't implement the bare minimum of automated malware and hash-based CSAM checks, there's still end user reporting to inform you of illegal and questionable content. And even if your customer support team has been advised to ignore user reports (who's responsible for that decision, anyway?) then law enforcement can and will make formal requests that your company's legal team can ignore at their own risk.

Pichai and Zuckerberg have not been arrested because - presumably - their companies cooperate with law enforcement requests, at least to the extent they are required to do in the countries where they operate. Either that, or they pulled out of countries where they felt they could not cooperate.

I don't know enough about the Durov case to know the angle that the French government are going to take it, and no doubt there is some geopolitical chicanery going along as an added bonus, but I think they would have had a much harder time charging this guy if his employees were doing what was required to comply with law.

Of course, Durov is a billionaire and people with access to that kind of money have a habit of wriggling out from any charges filed against them, so I won't be surprised if he walks free. But regardless of the outcome I think it's misleading to try to position this case as part of a broader debate over internet freedoms. I can assure you, there are a lot of legitimate, real-world criminals doing real crime on the internet, and fortunately they are getting busted all the time thanks to the efforts of law enforcement and platform operators who respect the rule of law.

[Lieutenant Ash]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/us-ammunition-plant-boosts-artillery-shell-production-for-ukraine-by-50/ar-AA1pCw6S?ocid=socialshare&pc=NMTS&cvid=6a5aab144fd14fc29cfd17f538f15404&ei=66

U.S. increases artillery shell production further.