How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

The one thing we haven't seen mucH of on Kursk is killed or captured Russian officers, not yet at least. How much of that is them simply running away like they mean it? And how much of it is the Russian's learning at least a few lessons about communications security and so on.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1esrdv3/ua_national_guards_peaky_blinders_uav_team/

UA National Guard's "Peaky Blinders" UAV team spotted a Russian machine gunner hiding under a tree in the Kharkiv region, dropping a munition that causes apparently lethal injury. Published August 14, 2024

 

I think this guy gets spotted because he doesn't have gloves or camo paint on his hands. War under the gaze of the all seeing eye is harsh.

Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1esrnlz/ua_national_guards_peaky_blinders_drone_team/

UA National Guard's "Peaky Blinders" drone team dropped a pair of munitions (from two drones) on a Russian soldier attempting to place an EW device. Published August 15, 2024

 

Also, being the EW guys entitles you to special attention.

[Battlefront.com]

Argh.  I am getting dragged into the rabbit hole of trying to make square pegs fit into round holes

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

So not having a flag might look suspicious. And since those people probably spoke Ukrainian it might have looked more suspicious to have a different flag.

Seriously?  Even if flying a national flag on a small private boat was a law (which I am sure it is not), why wouldn't they fly a RUSSIAN flag?  Or how about a British Union Jack?  I mean, really, do you think there are Wasserpolizei boating around checking on people's flags?  C'mon, seriously?

The flag was something done deliberately and with forethought (i.e. had to bring it with them).  If you think ultra secrete and successful Ukrainian special forces types with bring a flag with them and, for no good reason, fly it on the boat in which they are conducting a massive international scandal attack... but don't think Russian FSB/GRU would say to everybody that was within earshot "we're Ukrainian and here's our flag to prove it... well... let's just say I wouldn't want you managing my financial portfolio in the stock market

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Additional footage that verifies that AFU special forces are infiltrating with Russian uniforms to sow chaos. This is truly the devils playground and the AFU seem to want exactly that. No wonder conscripts are surrendering in droves. 

Where are teh Russian uniforms?  I didn't see any.  Plus, if you want to infiltrate looking like a Russian it would probably be a good idea to not do it with a M4 rifle.

Steve

[Gpig]

He might have been referring to the Red-tape armband(s)

 

Edited August 15 by Gpig
add pic

[ArmouredTopHat]

15 minutes ago, Gpig said:

He might have been referring to the Red-tape armband(s)

 

 

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Where are teh Russian uniforms?  I didn't see any.  Plus, if you want to infiltrate looking like a Russian it would probably be a good idea to not do it with a M4 rifle.

Steve

Yeah sorry, to be specific I am talking about the armbands that a few of the squad are using. Probably to sow confusion and allow them to move right up to Russian units. I'm not sure how dubious that is legally if they dont actually wear the uniform itself but just the armbands. 

[sburke]

1 minute ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

 

Yeah sorry, to be specific I am talking about the armbands that a few of the squad are using. Probably to sow confusion and allow them to move right up to Russian units. I'm not sure how dubious that is legally if they dont actually wear the uniform itself but just the armbands. 

The only thing wearing the uniform would do is possibly allow them to say you are a spy and execute you.  Considering that earlier post that said the RA wasn't taking prisoners, I doubt it matters much.

 

From wiki

Lawful conduct of belligerent actors
Modern laws of war regarding conduct during war (jus in bello), such as the 1949 Geneva Conventions, provide that it is unlawful for belligerents to engage in combat without meeting certain requirements. Article 4(a)(2) of the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War recognizes Lawful Combatants by the following characteristics:

(a) That of being commanded by a person responsible for his subordinates;
(b) That of having a fixed distinctive sign recognizable at a distance;
(c) That of carrying arms openly; and
(d) That of conducting their operations in accordance with the laws and customs of war.[24]
Impersonating enemy combatants by wearing the enemy's uniform is possibly allowed, however the issue is unsettled. Fighting in that uniform is unlawful perfidy[25], as is the taking of hostages[citation needed].

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

The only thing wearing the uniform would do is possibly allow them to say you are a spy and execute you.  Considering that earlier post that said the RA wasn't taking prisoners, I doubt it matters much.

 

From wiki

Lawful conduct of belligerent actors
Modern laws of war regarding conduct during war (jus in bello), such as the 1949 Geneva Conventions, provide that it is unlawful for belligerents to engage in combat without meeting certain requirements. Article 4(a)(2) of the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War recognizes Lawful Combatants by the following characteristics:

(a) That of being commanded by a person responsible for his subordinates;
(b) That of having a fixed distinctive sign recognizable at a distance;
(c) That of carrying arms openly; and
(d) That of conducting their operations in accordance with the laws and customs of war.[24]
Impersonating enemy combatants by wearing the enemy's uniform is possibly allowed, however the issue is unsettled. Fighting in that uniform is unlawful perfidy[25], as is the taking of hostages[citation needed].

Let’s not go by Hollywood legal definitions from WW2.  

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule107

Upshot - spies do not get PoW status but are still protected under international law.  They have a right to a fair legal trial after capture, no summary or kangaroo trials allowed.  The definitely cannot be shot on the spot, that would constitute an unlawful action under LOAC.

Of course Russia isn’t giving fair trials to its own people. So there is that.

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Let’s not go by Hollywood legal definitions from WW2.  

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule107

Upshot - spies do not get PoW status but are still protected under international law.  They have a right to a fair legal trial after capture, no summary or kangaroo trials allowed.  The definitely cannot be shot on the spot, that would constitute an unlawful action under LOAC.

Of course Russia isn’t giving fair trials to its own people. So there is that.

wait... you mean everything I see in the movies isn't true?  What???!!

[Butschi]

Steve, before answering, may I humbly ask you how I managed to trigger you so much? Here I am giving my take on the latest development because I thought that as a German, my perspective might be interesting to some. And before I know what happens you come and accuse me of making false assumptions, spreading conspiracy theories and believing all sorts of nonsense.

I did agree with you that there isn't that much more new stuff and would have left it at that. I answered @billbindccomment on my post briefly but said that I deem it speculative and that you are not happy about the topic, meaning that I wouldn't give any further answers.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Argh.  I am getting dragged into the rabbit hole of trying to make square pegs fit into round holes

Seriously?  Even if flying a national flag on a small private boat was a law (which I am sure it is not), why wouldn't they fly a RUSSIAN flag?  Or how about a British Union Jack?  I mean, really, do you think there are Wasserpolizei boating around checking on people's flags?  C'mon, seriously?

So... err... yes, seriously. If, so far, you weren't aware that we Germans are obsessed with laws, burocracy and regulating that kind of stuff... well, welcome to Germany! I didn't dig deep into this but let's have an excerpt from the first page I found on the topic:

Quote

Flag management is still an important issue for skippers. Disregarding the rules is not only evidence of unseamanly and unsportsmanlike behavior, but can also lead to real resentment and even fines or imprisonment - especially abroad. The legal basis for flag management is the “Law on the flag law of seagoing vessels and the flag management of inland waterway vessels”, i.e. the Flag Law Act (FlaggRG).

[...]

This means that skippers who only occasionally or exceptionally navigate coastal waters or the sea are not subject to the obligation to fly the federal flag, as their vessel is not considered a “vessel intended for seafaring”.This also applies to vessels that are objectively unsuitable for seafaring (unsuitable from a safety point of view to cross the seaward boundary) (generally less than 7 m in length).

However, it is advisable to fly the federal flag. It is proof of the national affiliation of a vessel. According to §8(3) FlaggRG, it does not have to be displayed at all times, but “when entering and leaving a port.”

That applies to German ships hence my speculative answer. Generally, if you think the German Wasserpolizei isn't interested in such things - oh well, read this:

Quote

“I received a complaint for flying the wrong flag on my sailing boat off Rügen. In addition to the German flag, I had put a European flag - with the German flag in the top corner - on the backstay. The fine for the offense is supposed to be 55 euros."

Fining people for small violations is, unfortunately, one of the major tasks our police has, so much so that they are sometimes expected to fulfill a quota. Fun fact: The Andromeda sailed from Rügen, too. And the last thing you want in such a case is to be stopped for such a simple thing when you have explosives on board, right?

As for the second part:

Quote

The flag was something done deliberately and with forethought (i.e. had to bring it with them).  If you think ultra secrete and successful Ukrainian special forces types with bring a flag with them and, for no good reason, fly it on the boat in which they are conducting a massive international scandal attack... but don't think Russian FSB/GRU would say to everybody that was within earshot "we're Ukrainian and here's our flag to prove it... well... let's just say I wouldn't want you managing my financial portfolio in the stock market

Let me simply say that

a) I have no clue why you tink I am conviced it was "ultra secrete and successful Ukrainian special forces types", when what I actually wrote was "Those people weren't necessarily SOF types or really connected to the military." That is kind of the opposite... ? And non-pros do non-pro things, right? Also, I didn't even think about the police but of other sailors raising an eyebrow or two when seeing and hearing these guys in the harbour. You don't need an overzealous police when you have suspicious neighbors. Which is what we Germans are in general...

b) I am absolutely ok with not having to manage your financial portfolio. In fact, I'd strictly advise against it.

Shall we leave it at that? I have zero interest in either getting banned or being marked as a nutcase.

Edited August 15 by Butschi

[IllegalLettuce]

48 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

 

Yeah sorry, to be specific I am talking about the armbands that a few of the squad are using. Probably to sow confusion and allow them to move right up to Russian units. I'm not sure how dubious that is legally if they don't actually wear the uniform itself but just the armbands. 

Also the interesting use of leaf suits. Russian special forces are prolific users of these, but I cannot recall seeing Ukrainians employing them before

[ArmouredTopHat]

Good lord, did they really just try to fire a damn ballistic missile at a tank?

[MikeyD]

If y'all want to follow the Nordstream discussion in realtime the first post I could locate on it is on page 1,451 of this thread. I believe if you follow that discussion you'll eventually hit a map tracking the location of Russian 'fishing vessels' in the area on that day.

Edited August 15 by MikeyD

[Vanir Ausf B]

The Kursk operation does not appear to have relieved pressure on the Donetsk front... yet.
 

Quote

Since Ukraine launched the Kursk offensive, "I would say things have become worse in our part of the front," said Ivan Sekach, spokesperson of Ukraine's 110th Mechanized Brigade, which is currently deployed in the Pokrovsk district in the Donetsk region. "We have been getting even less ammo than before and Russians are pushing,” he told POLITICO.

Over the past 24 hours, Russia occupied the villages of Zhelanne and Orlivka and made advances in New York, Krasnohorivka, Mykolaivka and Zhuravka in Donetsk, according to an update posted by DeepState, a war mapping project close to Ukraine's defense ministry.

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not confirm or deny the report, saying only that intense fighting was under way in those areas

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-offensive-prisoners-of-war-invasion-kursk-zelenskyy-putin/

Edited August 15 by Vanir Ausf B

[Mattias]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Seriously?  Even if flying a national flag on a small private boat was a law (which I am sure it is not)…

Have we excluded the possibility of it being a courtesy flag, while in Sweden? Like this one:

 

[sburke]

Tabloid paper but interesting if true as to the forces the RA is deploying.

 

Putin to send unwilling Russian pensioners into battle to stop Ukraine invasion (msn.com)

[Centurian52]

9 hours ago, zinz said:

The amount of Russian prisoners makes this operation feel different to the ones before. Well might have knock on effects in other areas as well with more Russians willing to surrender 

That was a thought I had. I read a book a while back about battlefield psychology (War Games: The Psychology of Combat, by Leo Murray). It emphasized that the goal in war isn't really to kill the enemy, but to make them stop fighting. Killing them is one way to make them stop fighting. But getting them to surrender is better*. This is because surrendering is a contagious behavior (as are fleeing and desertion). If you see or hear about other soldiers surrendering you are more likely to think that surrendering isn't such a bad idea.

*Killing is still necessary even if you're primarily thinking in terms of getting the enemy to surrender. Getting them to surrender requires a 'carrot and stick' approach. Killing is the stick, while the safety afforded by surrendering is the carrot. The stronger both the carrot and the stick are the better. The more certain the enemy is that he will die if he doesn't surrender, and that he will be safe if he does surrender, the more likely he is to surrender.

[kimbosbread]

40 minutes ago, IllegalLettuce said:

Also the interesting use of leaf suits. Russian special forces are prolific users of these, but I cannot recall seeing Ukrainians employing them before

IIRC Russian leaf suits are actually based on British hunting outfits, though I forget the brand. Same as their uniforms based on a US commercial-offered uniform.

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Steve, before answering, may I humbly ask you how I managed to trigger you so much?

I just think this is a dumb conversation that I thought was going to be left alone, but even I couldn't resist picking at what you said because I thought it was ridiculous.  No warnings of banning or being called a nutjob, just pointing out the painful argument you made for why a Ukrainian operative (not a Russian Ukrainian operative) would have flown it. 

Thanks for digging into the flag regulations, but what I am sure you left off is the flag is dependent upon where it is registered, not by who is at the helm.  I mean, what happens if you have a German and a Ukrainian on the ship.  Which flag to fly depends on who is at the wheel?  Not logical.

As for German Wasserpolizei busting people for the wrong or no flag, I do not doubt that at all.  But are they checking every boat to see if their flags are correct?  No.  There isn't enough police in Germany to do that.  What they do is what all law enforcement does... spot check and write up the poor bastard for everything and anything that can be found.  Improper flag, wrong life preserver count, no emergency air horn, etc.  Same thing if they have a legitimate reason to board another vessel.  Happens where I live too, but because there are thousands of boats on the water at any given time and only a few hundred law enforcement employed for such duties, the chances of getting "pulled over" aren't very high.  So if the saboteurs were obsessed with getting a EUR 55 fine, they would have flown a German flag and that would be that.

Anyway, let's leave it.  This is a rabbit hole none of us should be going down.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, kimbosbread said:

IIRC Russian leaf suits are actually based on British hunting outfits, though I forget the brand. Same as their uniforms based on a US commercial-offered uniform.

Ukrainians use various forms of "Ghille Suits" of different forms.  I did a quick search and it's not hard to find pictures.  This one is a winter type, but it's no different conceptually from what we saw in the vids.

 

Yes, the red armbands are no doubt intended to confuse.  Legally fine, not even in a gray area as there is no international recognition that Russia has ownership of that color any more than Ukraine has ownership of yellow, green, or blue ones.

Steve

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

There is literally a cut before the strike, and you see a HIMARS booking it on the right side after the strike.

Honestly hard to verify thanks to Russian potato cam as usual. 

UKR TG "Divizion Tivaz" has recognized destroyinhg of HIMARS, but say the crew survived

It's no matter, all will be right. Upper your noses. The main thing is the people are alive.

Other UKR TG Drone bomber:

Do you know a fate of the crew?

Alive.

Edited August 15 by Haiduk

[Hapless]

Apparently, Lukashenko thinks it time to put his "calm down guys, let's talk this out" hat on. That's an interesting turn.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-lukashenko-urges-russia-ukraine-end-war-kursk-incursion-continues-2024-08-15/

Edited August 15 by Hapless

[hcrof]

Vlad vexler is pessimistic about the political impact of the incursion, and no let up in pressure from the East so far.

Not saying the Ukrainians made a mistake but it is looking like more of a gamble than it did a week ago. Prisoner numbers aside, I hope we get some good news in the east to justify the reduced resources being sent there. 

 

[Carolus]

3 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Vlad vexler is pessimistic about the political impact of the incursion, and no let up in pressure from the East so far.

Not saying the Ukrainians made a mistake but it is looking like more of a gamble than it did a week ago. Prisoner numbers aside, I hope we get some good news in the east to justify the reduced resources being sent there. 

 

Tbh, Vlad Vexler's position is that the entire war is a regime stabilizing operation. 

Aka Putin decided to go ham in 2022 because he thought that Russia with a war in makes his regime in 2026 more stable, not less. 

He is a really great commentator and philosopher and I watch him regularly though, but I am not sure about that part.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Let’s not go by Hollywood legal definitions from WW2.  

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule107

Upshot - spies do not get PoW status but are still protected under international law.  They have a right to a fair legal trial after capture, no summary or kangaroo trials allowed.  The definitely cannot be shot on the spot, that would constitute an unlawful action under LOAC.

Of course Russia isn’t giving fair trials to its own people. So there is that.

Has there EVER been a fair trial in Russia? Once in the last thousand years?

Edited August 15 by dan/california