How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Kraft said:

PsyOp or actual DRG range

I'm taking this at face value based on the fact I can think of hundreds of pictures like this throughout this war, yet I can't remember even one of them being faked.  At worst they were a couple of guys going into a place, taking a picture, and then running back to friendly lines.

This is good!

Steve

[Kraft]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm taking this at face value based on the fact I can think of hundreds of pictures like this throughout this war, yet I can't remember even one of them being faked.  At worst they were a couple of guys going into a place, taking a picture, and then running back to friendly lines.

This is good!

Steve

Then this is the first, geolocators found the sign it says 108 in reality. I apologise for spreading a fake

Edited August 9 by Kraft

[ArmouredTopHat]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Argh.  We're back to your habit of posting a conclusion without any evidence, then when pressed for evidence, posting something that isn't.  That video you posted is absolutely hilariously irrelevant.

To be clear, my beef is with this:

"This is certainly the sort of environment where suddenly having things like tanks / IFVs / direct fire become very useful!"

I agree that this is the sort of environment where having things that make booms is useful.  There is also some evidence that Ukraine is employing tanks and IFVs in this environment in a way that is refreshingly old fashioned (i.e. possible to do without getting immediately killed).  But I see no evidence to suggest that the reason Ukraine is advancing is because of the direct fire capabilities of tanks/IFVs.  I asked you for evidence, you produced none.  It might turn out that you're correct, but at the present moment you are making an unsupported declarative statement based on nothing more than blind faith and/or wishful thinking.

Steve

 

I'm not posting any conclusions, just merely what is being talked about. There is still a lot we dont know, but we know tanks have been spotted operating in the area. To what extent their usage has been will remain unknown for a while yet.

However, I feel a certain sense of satisfaction seeing mobile mechanised warfare suddenly becoming very relevant again, which traditionally empowers these platforms. We will see how things go!

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Kraft said:

Then this is the first, geolocators found the sign it says 108 in reality

Well that explains why I couldn't find it on google maps 10k from the city, now doesn't it. Hopefully it fooled some Russians too.

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Then this is the first, geolocators found the sign it says 108 in reality. I apologise for spreading a fake

Damn!  Well, I should have said "from a reliable source".  This definitely wasn't, so I guess the track record is still pretty strong

However, I think the picture is legitimate.  108km to Kursk is just over the border in the area we know Ukraine is operating in.  Some arseface PhotoShopped out the 8.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

I'm not posting any conclusions, just merely what is being talked about. There is still a lot we dont know, but we know tanks have been spotted operating in the area. To what extent their usage has been will remain unknown for a while yet.

Good, but that's not what you had posted.  We have no idea to what extent direct fire weapons are playing ANY role in this battle. 

15 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

However, I feel a certain sense of satisfaction seeing mobile mechanised warfare suddenly becoming very relevant again, which traditionally empowers these platforms. We will see how things go!

We are all happy to see Ukraine achieve mobility of any sort, granted.  However, the circumstances by which it came about are quite specific to this particular offensive, therefore mobility (generally) has *NOT* been shown relevant again.

This is akin to the 2022 Kharkiv offensive.  Many here cautioned that it was the result of circumstances more than anything else.  Kherson was more a predictor of the fighting to come.

So, there's a lot we don't know.  But what we should be very sure of right now is that Ukraine exploited conditions that made maneuver warfare possible again.  Those conditions do not exist anywhere on the main front.  Therefore, maneuver warfare is still a novelty.

Steve

[sburke]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

However, I think the picture is legitimate.  108km to Kursk is just over the border in the area we know Ukraine is operating in.  Some arseface PhotoShopped out the 8.

Steve

yeah!  If your gonna do this then make it 1 km for cryin out loud!  

[Battlefront.com]

Some random reports on the fighting from credible sources.  Starting with these from NOEL Reports:
Central thread covering the events as they unfold.

Highlights:

1.  The full extent of Ukrainian activity is unknown, but evidence suggests that the furthest "advances" are likely small groups of recon/sabotage units.  It could be that Ukraine intends to follow up with a proper force, or it could be that these are screening missions and there's no intention of enlargement:

 2.  More reinforcements shown on the way.  I can't make out enough details on the flag, but what I can see (red and white) isn't familiar to me.

 

 

3.  Electrical distribution infrastructure was targeted and apparently successfully so:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another view of the reinforcements seen in the Russian TV coverage noted a page or two ago:

Steve

[Pete Wenman]

Darth knocking it out of the park again

[Battlefront.com]

Some good stuff from MAKS 24:

1.  Ukrainians moving through the cleared minefield.  Looks like a destroyed Stryker EV with mine rollers at the beginning.

2.  More video of Russian PoWs:

3.  Russians claim to have liberated the village of Dmitryukov, which is close to Sudzha to the south west.

 

Steve

[Grigb]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

That is pretty big.  For him to say that, of all people, hints at very large things going on behind the scenes.  We have not seen someone this big and powerful, with a seat at the inner circle table, say something this strongly before.

Steve

The large thing is the impending financial crisis. The crash is the result of excessive defense spending. It is evident to almost everybody in Russia who is knowledgeable about the economy. That explains why he is so open about it. Expect the Western media to start reporting it next month.

[Battlefront.com]

Random stuff:

1.  Ukraine raking a training ground with cluster munitions:

2.  A reminder to be extremely cautious about any Russian sourced combat footage.  They love taking things out of context.  Only trust a Russia source if it can be geolocated:

 

Steve

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Kraft said:

Interestingly, the russians claimed they defeated a raid on the kinburn spit, showing low quality video that films a boat and a couple of corpses (not clearly ID-able) floating nearby.

 

However, today the HUR also released a video, with footage from this (or another?) raid.

 

Showing 4 boats (rus reported 12? Participated)

This is a second raid. First was two days ago

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russians claim to have liberated the village of Dmitryukov, which is close to Sudzha to the south west.

No, indeed writing on the screen says "Khokhol captured Dmitriukov"

[Grigb]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

Okay so enough of the cheerleading.  The data you are referencing is helpful, but considering the size of the incursion is in the scheme of things so far not enormously huge (far as we can tell we are talking a brigade or so size force right?), what is it you are suggesting?

I am not suggesting. I am telling you that RU economy has only few months left. Well, Milov expects Putin to announce increase in military spending early fall. It would start financial crisis in couple of months later. I believe in pressure cooker effect. So, I expect Putin to announce it late fall, and crisis to start late winter. Which is the date I said several month ago. 

The unknown variable is when Trump will call for the cease-fire, as a cease-fire combined with a rapid reduction in military spending and demobilization will prevent an impending financial crisis.

4 hours ago, sburke said:

For example your hint suggests you know something about the state of the Russian economy and it being the source cause for Russian action.  Can you supply some reference data as to what exactly you mean?  Granted I have been watching for and posting what I see on issues for the Russian economy and there are many signs of stress, however I haven't seen anything to indicate an imminent collapse or anything along those lines.

Start with the most recent Milov interview. The Economy Is Slowing Down, The Shortage Of Personnel Is Becoming Critical, And There Are Payment Problems With China. Milov

Then watch his previous interviews (he makes it every week). He talks extensively about RU economy. Everything you need is there. 

 

4 hours ago, sburke said:

From my own limited perspective, I see the actions of the UA as more political than strictly military.  At most they may achieve eliminating a bulge and shortening the lines in one area, but it was an area that was not seeing combat. 

Military sense was to grind RU reserves under conditions that favors UKR which is very important to stop further RU offensives and give chance to UKR offensive during late fall-early winter (the most difficult period for RU).  

You can call it limited. I wouldn't as Battle for reserves is the most critical battle now. 

[zinz]

https://www.politico.eu/article/berlin-allies-support-ukraines-surprise-offensive-at-least-so-far-kursk-zelenskyy-putin/

Well the Kursk operation wouldn't be possible without Russian Kharkiv adventure earlier this year and the change of red lines with the western allies. 

[Haiduk]

Ukrainian drones destroyed crucial power substation in Oktiabrskiy district of Kursk oblast

As a result Kurchatov city and and five districts aroud have severe problems with electricity, communication and water supply. On the photo Kurchatov in darkness

 

Edited August 9 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russians hit supermarket in Kostianntynivka city, Donetsk oblast. Reportadly 14 citizens were killed, 43 wounded. The strike was conducted by newest missile-bomb Kh-38

[Astrophel]

33 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The large thing is the impending financial crisis. The crash is the result of excessive defense spending. It is evident to almost everybody in Russia who is knowledgeable about the economy. That explains why he is so open about it. Expect the Western media to start reporting it next month.

The warning words of Governor Elvira Nabiullina reported earlier here carry a lot of weight in russia and globally.  I am a bit surprised she is allowed to be so explicit about the economic problems.  There must be a heated discussion in russian circles currently and combined with a successful Ukrainian foray into russian territory the pressure on Putin must be building.

Edited August 9 by Astrophel

[Grigb]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

I hope he he has nice window picked out, one a view and quality fittings. A man of his stature should depart in style.

Unlikely as he just said what every competent RU economist knows already. This is how opposition economist Milov described Elvira Nabiullina (current governor of the Central Bank of Russia) recent press conference: You know, what they said ... [she deserves ] not just a prison sentence for extremism, but direct transfer to the Penal Battalion and then to front line together with her deputy Zabotkin.

[Holien]

I keep pondering why you would push an elderly Russian female well respected economist out of a window...

https://www.newsweek.com/top-russian-economist-dies-after-falling-out-window-1929398

Edited August 9 by Holien

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No, indeed writing on the screen says "Khokhol captured Dmitriukov"

HAH!  I misread that.  English can be a tricky language sometimes, even for native speakers.  "Liberated" is not a word we would use to describe taking someone else's territory.  Though, technically, the Russians are under occupation by Moscow so...

Steve

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Astrophel said:

The warning words of Governor Elvira Nabiullina reported earlier here carry a lot of weight in russia and globally.  I am a bit surprised she is allowed to be so explicit about the economic problems.

She wasn't allowed to say it in February. But by July it became so obvious and problem became so big that she and other civilian servants became desperate and started talking about it. 

 

1 minute ago, Astrophel said:

 There must be a heated discussion in russian circles currently and combined with a successful Ukrainian foray into russian territory the pressure on Putin must be building.

Discussion was in spring because many economists disputed arrival of crisis.  By now, there is no discussion regardless of UKR operation. Everybody is waiting either crisis or announcement of cease fire. 

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, Grigb said:

She wasn't allowed to say it in February. But by July it became so obvious and problem became so big that she and other civilian servants became desperate and started talking about it. 

 

Discussion was in spring because many economists disputed arrival of crisis.  By now, there is no discussion regardless of UKR operation. Everybody is waiting either crisis or announcement of cease fire. 

If it is so obvious do you suspect the timing of the UAs move could be to provoke the situation further?

As to western media talking about it, i posted above on Bloomberg report.  I don't think you need to wait till next month.  Their warning is perhaps not so dire as your but is certainly pointing in that direction.