Beleg85 Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 hmm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 33 minutes ago, Astrophel said: They must keep moving, not dig in or try to hold towns, set up torture chambers (russian style) and waste time to issue permits for access to healthcare. They cannot move that fast - they have to move SAMs to protect the advance. To move SAMs they have to enlarge the foothold to keep SAMs safe from RU tactical weapons. Right now SAMs are relatively safe on UKR territory. They can significantly enlarge foothold by capturing Rylsk. Only then they can move deeper. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said: hmm I believe he is somewhat confused. There have been no reports of explosions in Kurchatov or at the power plant. There are videos and reports of RU AA actions and potentially missile/drone explosions. Kurchatov sits at the crossroads of two roads leading from Kursk to Lgov. RU reinforcements are coming along these two roads. It appears that the UKR are attacking these reinforcements, while the RU Kurchatov AA batteries are trying to defend columns. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 21 minutes ago, Grigb said: Amazing expert opinion, yes. Currently so called half of million army have severe shortage of assault meat, last uncommitted reserves, no way to enlist more meat except calling catastrophic mobilization and on top of it have to fight another battle under worst possible conditions. Do you really want to continue this conversation? There are two tired,miserable armies now participating in a slow, awful grinding war but there are no signs of end in sight. The best have already vanished. But yeah, lets hope for the buzzer beater from downtown. If UA hasn't reinforcment waves planned, this will be over in the weekend. Because of aviation and tactical helicopters alone against an overextended force with no forward AA umbrella possible. Later RU will have to clear/reinforce another sector of the border like they did in Kharkiv. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrophel Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 53 minutes ago, panzermartin said: You can infinetely play this cat and mouse game, but no you cant force an army of over half a million to lose hope or surrender because you have captured a settlement 25km from the vast and sparsely guarded borders, for 2 days. Would US surrender if a mexican light brigade captured a surfer settlement in California? Perhaps I was unclear. The last thing the Ukrainians should be doing is capturing places. They do not have the manpower to hold huge amounts of territory against inevitable reprisals. They need to attack russian morale, in the tv audiences, the places they surround, and in the rear of the russian army which is now pointing in the wrong direction. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 3 minutes ago, panzermartin said: There are two tired,miserable armies Only one. 3 minutes ago, panzermartin said: ...now participating in a slow, awful grinding war but there are no signs of end in sight. There is since this February. I already said approximate date and made wager right here like months ago. Hint - RU economy state. There is a reason why RU army is pushing this hard now despite horrible losses. 3 minutes ago, panzermartin said: The best have already vanished. In RU army definitely. UKR army losses are far smaller. 3 minutes ago, panzermartin said: But yeah, lets hope for the buzzer beater from downtown. I do not hope. I know. I know facts that you do not know. Plain and simple. 3 minutes ago, panzermartin said: If UA hasn't reinforcment waves planned, this will be over in the weekend. Because of aviation and tactical helicopters alone against an overextended force with no forward AA umbrella possible. Later RU will have to clear/reinforce another sector of the border like they did in Kharkiv. Have you looked at the map? No, really, have you looks at the map? Please just go and look at the map. 3 minutes ago, panzermartin said: Later RU will have to clear/reinforce another sector of the border like they did in Kharkiv. You mean that disastrous Kharkive incursion that continues only because RU do not know how to end it without ruining last bits of RU High Command reputation? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Me reading tea leaves Yandex Maps traffic 1 hour ago, Grigb said: Let talk looks at the map. I suspect that during the night UKR bypassed Korenevo and blocked the road to Korenevo as well as cut the road between Korenevo and Glushkovo. However, I suspect that together with Malya Loknya assault and pushes toward Novoivanovka and Leonidovo there was RU counter attack along the road to Korenevo. And RU managed to deblock road to Korenevo. RU reporter Quote I have now driven along the highway from Rylsk to Kursk through Lgov, the road is working, there is movement along it, although the enemy is trying to bypass Korenevo in order to cut this artery Not bad for tea leaves Yandex Maps traffic 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Regarding RU economy state - personal Putin friend Deripaska got very upset recently Quote One of Russia's richest billionaires has criticized the country's defense spending and called the fighting in Ukraine "madness." He ended his words by calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. There are two important phrases here - criticized the country's defense spending and called the fighting in Ukraine "madness.". It is all what you need to know about RU economy state and why RU desperately needs cease fire. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Assuming the Russians aren't shooting at ghosts, I'm impressed by the fact that the UKR forces have great initiative and morale, units conducting themselves in small long range groupings, with focus on bypassing strong points, correct me if I'm wrong, you need trained and properly motivated soldiers for this kind of maneuver no? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 We spot tanks! Well the Russians did. Quote Just like Kharkiv 2022, T-64A-based ARV. Even some of the same people in the DRGs ahead of the FLOT too. Ukrainian tanks continue to roll through minefields in Kursk (As seen by a Russian drone) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 RU claim Quote The enemy's armor stretches from the Alyoshnya farm in the direction of the Kazach'ya Loknya [few km to North West from Sudzha, marked on my map). They move in small groups. The enemy continues to pull up reserves. Contrary to many turbo patriots channels that assured this is just a "tick-tok operation of the AFU", the enemy is digging in, trying to expand and secure the bridgehead. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 21 minutes ago, Grigb said: I do not hope. I know. I know facts that you do not know. Plain and simple. Honestly, while I respect and often read your inside info and tactical analysis, you all have lost credibility here, especially since the UA summer offensive that fell so catastrophically short. The less enthusiastic estimate here was UA reaching Crimea and cutting the "soon to break apart" RU army in half. We were so far into this that we were discussing what will happen to the Russian civilians there. Since then I log in sporadically here, but I still find the same people passionately claiming they know the whole truth and we are no expert enough to object that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hcrof Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 I suspect this party is coming to a close since Ukraine did not capture Rylsk and it is now getting reinforced by Russia. I suspect that more Ukrainian reserves will not get thrown in so we will see either a consolidation or withdrawal. As long as casualties were low I would call this a successful Ukrainian raid but I don't expect this to get any worse for the Russians in the short term. In the long term we will have to see: if they are forced to reinforce the whole border that will tie down valuable combat power that they need in the Donbass if they want to keep moving forward. I also am interested in the lessons learned here. Ukraine just pulled off some limited mobile warfare, which is good to see, but I wonder if they can apply it in more fortified areas. Russia may learn lessons but they question is if they can apply them at all given the current low quality of most of their forces. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 1 hour ago, Lethaface said: I heard NATO will give free washing machine to everyone who vote to join Ukraine. Other Oblast feel left out. BRILLIANT! If Ukraine can get memes like this bouncing around the Russian info sphere it will do real damage to Putin's regime. As we just saw in Bangladesh, autocratic regimes have a tipping point. Once the center of political gravity gets pushed to far over, the whole thing comes down. I am being excessive, but can we get one or two trucks of washing machines shipped to the biggest population area the Ukrainians have seized? Preferably in blue and yellow paint colors with Zelensky's picture on them? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Even if UKR mostly withdraws, they've accomplished a lot: lowered RU morale, both militarily and with the public. They've raised UKR morale similarly. They have opportunities to ambush reinforcements being rushed to the scene, and we known they done some of that. THey've forced RU to pull high quality assets (AD, arty, armor) from other sectors. RU is now bombing and shelling its own territory! -- that's a nice win! UKR has learned some good lessons on what is required to actually advance, multiple units and lots of officers have gained some great experience. Any territory kept by UKR will be available for trade later, along with the prisoners. Putin looks like a damn fool and everyone in RU knows that UKR just drove over the border unimpeded and that multiple towns are wrecked. Most, I suppose, will just want more UKR blood. But more & more hopefully will start to ask whether maybe they are the 'baddies'? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 I'm hoping by posting this they already loaded all that stuff into trucks and drove it right on home. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 37 minutes ago, Grigb said: Regarding RU economy state - personal Putin friend Deripaska got very upset recently There are two important phrases here - criticized the country's defense spending and called the fighting in Ukraine "madness.". It is all what you need to know about RU economy state and why RU desperately needs cease fire. I hope he he has nice window picked out, one a view and quality fittings. A man of his stature should depart in style. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 59 minutes ago, Grigb said: Only one. There is since this February. I already said approximate date and made wager right here like months ago. Hint - RU economy state. There is a reason why RU army is pushing this hard now despite horrible losses. In RU army definitely. UKR army losses are far smaller. I do not hope. I know. I know facts that you do not know. Plain and simple. Have you looked at the map? No, really, have you looks at the map? Please just go and look at the map. You mean that disastrous Kharkive incursion that continues only because RU do not know how to end it without ruining last bits of RU High Command reputation? Okay so enough of the cheerleading. The data you are referencing is helpful, but considering the size of the incursion is in the scheme of things so far not enormously huge (far as we can tell we are talking a brigade or so size force right?), what is it you are suggesting? For example your hint suggests you know something about the state of the Russian economy and it being the source cause for Russian action. Can you supply some reference data as to what exactly you mean? Granted I have been watching for and posting what I see on issues for the Russian economy and there are many signs of stress, however I haven't seen anything to indicate an imminent collapse or anything along those lines. From my own limited perspective, I see the actions of the UA as more political than strictly military. At most they may achieve eliminating a bulge and shortening the lines in one area, but it was an area that was not seeing combat. On the other hand Ukraine's ability to run roughshod over the Russian border and batter the heck out of those Russian units in the area and some of those being sent in reaction is humiliating for Russian commanders. Being humiliated is NOT a good option when your boss is Putin. There is also a message to the west in that Ukraine is showing it can perform an offensive action that has pretty much surprised everyone. Even if relatively limited in scope it does present a positive for western backers who might be getting impatient. I do tend to agree with @panzermartin that the goals are limited and the UA will not leave some of its best units to strive to hold territory here. What I'd rather see is the UA withdrawal and use these forces to stage an attack elsewhere on the front to keep Russia responding to UA moves. Russian forces are not unlimited, and those reinforcements have to have been drawn from somewhere. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 7 hours ago, dan/california said: The Russians may not be doing much fighting, but dying and surrendering both seem to be happening in some quantity. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Quote https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1enwtrn/ua_58th_motorized_brigades_uav_witnessed_a/ UA 58th Motorized Brigade's UAV witnessed a Russian training ground in the Zaporizhzhia region being targeted with conventional and cluster munitions, covering a large number of targets with a thick concentration of fire. Published August 9, 2024 This is obviously at the far end of the line of contact from the recent excitement, but somebody thought this target was worth the full treatment. They had the ordinance, too. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 7 hours ago, Kraft said: The russian column from yesterday met Himars cluster dungsten balls The infantry died in their vehicles. These were among those instructed not to take prisoners. Likely sent to Rylsk, they died before reaching it. Well to give them credit for following orders- they definitely won't be taking any prisoners. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Quote https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1enwtx6/ukraine_hit_another_russian_military_helicopter/ Ukraine hit another russian military helicopter with an FPV drone. Hope the OG7 radius still got some shrapnell into the tail. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Quote https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1enqy5r/report_russias_lipetsk_air_base_has_been_struck/ Report: Russia's Lipetsk Air Base has been struck by Ukrainian UAVs in a night strike, seen filmed here at some distance by a civilian bystander. August 9, 2024 Do we have any more information on this strike? This video implies a fair bit of stuff went boom. And it didn't look like successful intercepts. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 (edited) Quote https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1entdp0/ua_national_guards_peaky_blinders_drone_team/ UA National Guard's "Peaky Blinders" drone team continues to target Russian assets in the Kharkiv region, aiming FPV strike drones at 5 enemy trucks/supply vans on the move. Published August 9, 2024 Five Russian supply trucks that didn't make it. Edited August 9 by dan/california 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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