How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We know Russian SAMs work otherwise Ukraine would have air superiority.

UKR air force is incapable of ANY SEAD without Western airplanes and weapons.

 

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Air mutual denial has been noted as part of this war for nearly two years.

RU Air Force is incapable of any competent SEAD due to VKS de facto not being independent force (VKS de facto is subordinated to Army commanders who do not give a F about SEAD) + issues related to their Nazi superiority attitude.

 

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So something is keeping the Ukrainian Air Force back...must be those Russian drones.

We know what has been holding back both Air Forces for like three years. I am surprised that you still do not know it. 

 

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You "claim" a 25km raid.  I will wait until a more credible source comes along to confirm it.

The source that told you that it is impossible to operate tank regiment on the front line without being hit by wonder OTH? Good Luck!

 

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Look, clearly you are fully convinced based on your "RU Nats."  Fine, go with it.  But it may surprise you to learn that there is a whole lot more going on than what those "RU Nats" are saying.

I literally putting quotes of RU soldiers, officers and even general. And you are like - these are RU Nats, they know nothing. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Another propagandist down. Supposedly died from an FPV strike on his way to cover Kursk. 

Edited August 7 by ArmouredTopHat

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

UKR air force is incapable of ANY SEAD without Western airplanes and weapons.

Why does the UKR AF need to do SEAD if none of the Russian SAMs work (your words)?

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU Air Force is incapable of any competent SEAD due to VKS de facto not being independent force (VKS de facto is subordinated to Army commanders who do not give a F about SEAD) + issues related to their Nazi superiority attitude.

So the RUAF is not doing SEAD because Army commanders don’t want to bother…I suppose your RU Nats told you this as well.

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

We know what has been holding back both Air Forces for like three years. I am surprised that you still do not know it. 

Well so far you have “lack of western equipment for SEAD” against a Russian AD that “doesn’t work.”  And “RA officer who run the Russian Air Force don’t want to”…rock solid.

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The source that told you that it is impossible to operate tank regiment on the front line without being hit by wonder OTH? Good Luck!

Show me a credible source outside of Telegram where 100 armored vehicles were 1) not detected and 2) were successfully employed in anything but a road move.  We have not seen that concentration of armor in this war since March of ‘22.  We do have a lot of burning tanks and their support vehicles.

And what is it with your whole “OTH” allergy? Those drones are operating OTH, 20+kms deep is OTH FFS.  We have seen FPV fly into tank parking barns at that range, let alone 100 of them formed up for an attack.  This was has been all sorts of long range strike OTH all over the place but I guess your RU Nats failed to mention it so it hasn’t happened.

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I literally putting quotes of RU soldiers, officers and even general. And you are like - these are RU Nats, they know nothing. 

No, my point is that your RU Nats don’t know everything.  Hell given the fact they are RU and RU military on a social media platform…in Russia, my bet is most of them know pretty much f#ck all.  But that does not mean we can’t get some good details out of them.  What they are not, are experts on every aspect of this war that all other reporting and data needs to align with or it must be wrong.  Given the performance of the Russian military I would put the least amount of stock in what any Russian general has to say, and zero stock in their knowledge of what western capabilities are or are not.

Quote them all you like.  We may get some good stuff, but like everything else it will be taken with salt. I have worked in a 5 EYES military for a long time and can tell you that RU Nats have zero idea what they are talking about if they think 1) western C4ISR is not pretty much everywhere in this war, and 2) OTH strikes are re-shaping what can and cannot be done on these battlefields.  In fact point #1 leads to point #2.

Your RU Nats are hardly the last word on this war.  In fact I barely cred them the first word.

[ArmouredTopHat]

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1821270639908679828

Plot thickens 

[Blazing 88's]

I like this guy. He has some very good takes on the Kursk front:

 

Edited August 7 by Blazing 88's

[Letter from Prague]

Gentleman, you can't fight in here, this is the war room!

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.threads.net/@ghostoflviv_/post/C-YCbMlPrWC?xmt=AQGzVxVev3c5LfGMP9h9slC6TjBSglToz11nIMJTfzXRrr4

Ukrainian forces are likely pushing to the main railroad that runs through Kursk near the border with Ukraine.

The dotted black line is the railroad, the orange is Ukrainian held territory, and the yellow is Ukrainian claimed territory.

 

Ukrainian forces are approaching this rail line on a broad front. If the goal is to break stuff and leave, utterly trashing a few kilometers of this line would be a rational goal. 

If they are trying to be insanely ambitious it is about the same distance to Kursk, and Belgorod. Belgorod would seem to have more short term military utility given how important it is as a logistics hub. Faking towardsKkursk before swinging southwest towards Belgorod would certainly be artistic.

Of course it is only insanely ambitious if they don't have the forces...

Edited August 7 by dan/california

[Vanir Ausf B]

52 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Another propagandist down. Supposedly died from an FPV strike on his way to cover Kursk. 

I'm seeing reports he was wounded, not killed. We'll see..

[FancyCat]

lets not get ahead of ourselves, at most we know UKR forces are fighting for Sudzha, thats about it, whether they move deeper or not, we know nothing. 

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Why does the UKR AF need to do SEAD if none of the Russian SAMs work (your words)?

Never said they do not work completely. Go and read it. They do not work against modern airplanes with modern weapons and modern EW suites. Full stop.

 

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So the RUAF is not doing SEAD because Army commanders don’t want to bother…I suppose your RU Nats told you this as well.

Actually, RU Nats in infantry (a lot of them, including Wagnerites) started asking why they did not see VKS airplanes in battles. RU Nats from VKS got pissed of at some point and explained it. That I rate credible because it the same as per my personal experience. I was going to be AAW officer. 

 

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well so far you have “lack of western equipment for SEAD” against a Russian AD that “doesn’t work.”  And “RA officer who run the Russian Air Force don’t want to”…rock solid.

• We have crappy RU SAMs
• We have very crappy UKR airplanes
• We have less crappy RU airplanes under command of incompetent RU army commanders piloted by moderately intelligent arrogant Nazis

That's it. End of Story.

 

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Show me a credible source outside of Telegram where 100 armored vehicles were 1) not detected and 2) were successfully employed in anything but a road move.  We have not seen that concentration of armor in this war since March of ‘22.  We do have a lot of burning tanks and their support vehicles.

I showed to you statement of RU officer from internal RU Lessons Learned document that your imaginary magic eyes, wonder OTOH strikes are not the reason why RU armored started to disperse. Artillery is. I showed to you statement of RU general from his farewell public recording stating the same thing.

You yourselves presented NO evidence of magic eyes and wonder OTH strikes. NOTHING. Give me dates, give me locations. I will check them.

I gave you Avdiivka, october assault, RU tanks regiment freely maneuvered at Avdiivka industrial zone sufferingly only from FPVs. That alone completely disprove your fantasy. 

 

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

No, my point is that your RU Nats don’t know everything.  

No, your point is to deny everything and claim you opponent is not knowledgeable enough.

I told you multiple times - NO ONE ON RU SIDE (RU NAT OR OTHERWISE, SOLDER, OFFICER, GENERAL OR CIVILIAN SUPPLIER) SAYS ANYTHING ABOUT WARFARE DEFINING EFFECTS OF MAGIC EYES AND WONDER OTOH STRIKES. 

NO ONE.

I am reading your claims about HUGE effects of the eyes and OTH strikes. Then I read day after day, after week, after month, after year, everywhere, including RU internal documents that they suffer critically from UKR arty and FPVs.

End of Story.

 

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

No, my point is that your RU Nats don’t know everything.  Hell given the fact they are RU and RU military on a social media platform…in Russia, my bet is most of them know pretty much f#ck all.

As usual you are very ignorant. Social media is the only way for RU military to communicated among themselves reliably. They just do not have anything else that works. 

Your western military brain is incapable of handling the true level of RU military equipment crappines. Quote

Quote

This is what the command post of the UAV operators of the group leading the attack on the Chasov Yar looks like. All communication is based, among other things, on the use of purely civilian gadgets, online broadcasts of the situation from drones and voice chats over the Internet in Discord.

 

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Quote them all you like.  We may get some good stuff, but like everything else it will be taken with salt. I have worked in a 5 EYES military for a long time and can tell you that RU Nats have zero idea what they are talking about if they think 1) western C4ISR is not pretty much everywhere in this war, and 2) OTH strikes are re-shaping what can and cannot be done on these battlefields.  In fact point #1 leads to point #2.

magic eye so magic and OTH strikes are so wonder that RU freely maneuvered tank regiment directly on front line.

I do not care about your claims.

• I have fact that RU Army can operate tank regiment without suffering serious losses but from tactical FPVs.
• I know that NOBODY on RU side make serios complains about magic eyes and OTH strikes. 
• I know the RU routinely drive armored columns to front line 

Reality is very different from your claims. Not the first time when weapon effect was wildly exaggerated. 

 

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Your RU Nats are hardly the last word on this war.  In fact I barely cred them the first word.

If you strongly hit somebody in the leg he should say something about his leg. If the man instead talk about his stomack and shoulder somebody exaggerated effect of leg strike. And the competence of the man is simply irrelevant.

[ArmouredTopHat]

Drone superiority and EWAR seems at least partially responsible for ability to wage mobile war in this sector. 

[Letter from Prague]

I think EW is here to stay. Especially as a "surprise generator", enabler and force multiplier.

I know we talked about how jammers are useless because you can easily target them because they broadcast ... but the same thing is true of Air Defense radars and those haven't gone away.

edit: waaaaaaait. The strikes on airports, electricity and comm equipment inside Russia in the last few months were actually shaping for this?

Edited August 7 by Letter from Prague

[Sgt Joch]

On the Kursk raid, people tend to forget how huge Russia is. In WW2, the Russian front was notoriously porous and large portions of the front were thinly held even though both sides had millions of men at the front.

Raids, limited offensives on lightly held portions were common. Both sides tried to keep mobile forces in reserve to deal with them. 

The real question is not whether the UKR can carry out such raids, but whether they will still be there in days-weeks from now. 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Both sides tried to keep mobile forces in reserve to deal with them. 

And if the Russians have any reserves...?

[chuckdyke]

Raid or kicking the ant mount? 

[Baneman]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

...
As to this latest UA offensive...good to see, but unless the RA is prime for a collapse it will have a hard time of making any real hay for the same reasons the RA couldn't make a go of it: increasingly long exposed lines of support with no air superiority.

Raid to make a point and get a reaction from Russia = good idea.  Sending troops to take and hold Russia soil just to die later = bad idea.  Make the point and pull back, rinse and repeat.  That could drive the RA to distraction and erode them over time.

 

A question about this - why does the UKR force have to pull out ?

According to that diagram from about 10 pages back, Russia is advancing in most areas at 2-300m per week.
Why couldn't UKR dig in and force them to take this area back at the same pace with the same meat waves ? After all, surely all of the front has no air superiority and the lines of support would be more or less the same - it's not all a straight line ?

With all the WWI parallels ( I do like to think that drone development 2022-24 mirrors aircraft development 1914-16 ), why shouldn't "bite and hold" work ?

[Letter from Prague]

I think holding it might be logistically difficult. Which makes me think is why photos I've seen (can't claim representative sample of course) were more MRAPs and Strikers than Ambramses. How big of a difference does that makes who knows.

[Bearstronaut]

5 minutes ago, Baneman said:

A question about this - why does the UKR force have to pull out ?

According to that diagram from about 10 pages back, Russia is advancing in most areas at 2-300m per week.
Why couldn't UKR dig in and force them to take this area back at the same pace with the same meat waves ? After all, surely all of the front has no air superiority and the lines of support would be more or less the same - it's not all a straight line ?

With all the WWI parallels ( I do like to think that drone development 2022-24 mirrors aircraft development 1914-16 ), why shouldn't "bite and hold" work ?

It increases their frontage and therefore the number of soldiers required to hold that front. Why throw away troops to hold on to a piece of Russia when their goal is to prevent more seizure of their own territory?

[Probus]

6 hours ago, LuckyDog said:

A ballbearing shortage for the Russian railways will make troop movements harder, drive up prices due to trucking, and wear out trucks faster.

Its always about the ball bearings.  I don't know how many Hogan's Heroes I've watched where the ball bearing factories get put out of business. 

https://hogansheroes.fandom.com/wiki/The_Ultimate_Weapon

[Probus]

 

[chuckdyke]

Frequently Asked Questions: Everything You Need to Know about DER SPIEGEL - DER SPIEGEL 

He is using Der Spiegel as his reference could have done worse. 

[Probus]

31 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Frequently Asked Questions: Everything You Need to Know about DER SPIEGEL - DER SPIEGEL 

He is using Der Spiegel as his reference could have done worse. 

Can't read it.  Pay walled.  What does it say about Der Spiegel?

I can read it after all.

Edited August 8 by Probus

[chuckdyke]

8 minutes ago, Probus said:

Can't read it.  Pay walled.  What does it say about Der Spiegel?

I can read it after all.

it has a decent reputation in Germany similar to Newsweek in the US. 

[FancyCat]

3 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

It increases their frontage and therefore the number of soldiers required to hold that front. Why throw away troops to hold on to a piece of Russia when their goal is to prevent more seizure of their own territory?

If Ukraine can actually hold Russian territory, they can do land swaps in any peace agreement.

[dan/california]

Well at a minimum they are faking this guy.