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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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Meanwhile situation on Toretsk direction getting worse - Russians set flag on the school building in north-western part of New-York settlemnt. Under UKR control remained north-east part of this T-shape settlement

TG sources have been reported during last days on this direction Ruissian almost didn't use armor - just hordes of small assault groups and of course glide bombs and artillery. 

 

 

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Yesterday close to the midnight there were too loud in our district. Russians lauched four ballistic missiles and  explosions were in 15-20 km from my home near Brovary town (esatern suburb of Kyiv). Two missiles were shot down by AD, two other reportedly just failed - one exploded in the air, other fell down to forestry area beyond Brovary (on the video). Remains of missiles showed these were N.Korean KN-23. On 31st of July Russians launched KN-23 on Bila Tserkva city in Kyiv oblast, but that missie also failed and hit the field. 

Reserches of remained part showed intersting thing - when in Russian Iskander the bearings of special steel are used for stabilizing systems, that in N.Korea analog KN-23 usual car bearings of Toyota company. Likely it poorly adapted to overloads and this can cause failures.

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A fire on small refinery in Usinsk, Komi Repuplic (1 mln tons year output). Reportedly there was an explosion. Likely UKR drone attack. If so, this is new record - 2000 km

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About 10 days ago there was explosion on largest refinery in Russia in Omsk (21 mln. tons of year output)- far in Syberia. It probably was a diveriosion. 

Edited by Haiduk
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15 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

This seems like it could be a big own goal for Ukraine, similar to the Russian Kharkov offensive. Then again, I have been wrong before.

Haven't we all been wrong before?  Yes, I'm sure we have.  But I could be wrong :)

This feels different because it is different.  Ukraine has, to the best of my recollection, conducted no significant incursions into Russian territory prior to this attack.  I'm not including the Russian liberation organizations, special forces, and other small scale attacks.

The most obvious purpose of this incursion is to do (as you suggest) the same thing Russia did when it launched the Kharkov attack.  And that is to hit in a weak spot that Russia has to respond to at a time when it is deeply invested elsewhere and (apparently) lacks significant mobile reserves.

This is definitely good, whatever it is.

Steve

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Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Another example of drones being real PITA for rear area movement?  My guess is yes.

Steve

Yes, location. The road from the border to Sudzha near Goncharovka

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2 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Holding onto a chunk of russian territory will give Ukraine significant leverage in any peace negotiations, should they happen...

This ^^

I wonder if this operation is part of a wider plan to help a negotiated withdrawal of RU forces from UKR. You give us our land back, and we'll give you yours.

P  

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The point of drone bombing of UKR vehicle is located. It's far behind border village Nikolayevo-Daryino and Daryino, so Russian TG assumes these villages alrwady under UKR control. This is more west from Sverdlikovo - right flank of Sudzha direction. Looks like our forces, moving by dirt rural road through these villages really try to reach the road Rylsk-Sudzha, heading to Sudzha from NW. 

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o.O 

Strykers in Russia?! go back to March 2022 and tell the thread. question is, why the sudden deployment of western equipment? either with U.S approval or the risk of U.S disapproval is outweighed by the potential positives. hopefully, this will be a success. 

 

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Locals in Crimea report about fire and detonations on old Oktiabrskoye airfield near Simferopol, which now mostly uses lile ammunition storage, repair units locations and sometime as helicopter site. Several months ago there was a strike on this airfield. Now because of detonations railroad section is closed for trains. 

 

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Russian milblogger clarified the fate of allegedly shot down second helocopter (our sources told about Mi-8) - he claims it just damaged, but crew could bring it back and land successfully. Helicopter will be moved to repair

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Edited by Haiduk
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Little bit of tank action from 3rd Assault brigade.

From that airfield hit the other day.  RU said no aircraft were lost so I'm assuming this will buff out.

 

So here it might be - first airborne helo lost to FPV drone

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Claimed as a still from a video where a Ukrainian FPV strikes a Russian Mi-28 helicopter. Waiting for the video.

 

Edited by Fenris
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On 8/5/2024 at 1:42 PM, Beleg85 said:

Further "reorganization" in Russian High command may be incoming...; usually good intelligence source but wait for confirmation...[btw. some of changes already known for some time].

https://x.com/Maciej_Korowaj/status/1820502434608730372

Changes in Russian MOD on day 5.08.2024:

1. Minister of Defense, Gen. Sergei Shoigu - removed from office;

2. First Deputy Minister of Defense Ruslan Tsalikov - removed from office;

3. Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov (infrastructure) - arrested;

4. Deputy Minister of Defense, Gen. Colonel Yuri Sadovenko (Administration of the Russian Defense Ministry) - removed from office;

5. Deputy Minister of Defense, Tatyana Shevtsova (financial support) - dismissed;

6. Deputy Minister of Defense, Gen. Reserve Nikolai Pankov (State Secretary) - dismissed;

7. Deputy Minister of Defense, Gen. Pavel Popov (Innovation Research) - dismissed;

8. Former Deputy Minister of Defense, General of the Army Dmitry Bulgakov (Logistics) - arrested;

9. Lt. Gen. Yuri Kuznetsov, head of the Main Personnel Department - arrested;

10. Lt. Gen. Vadim Shamarin - arrested;

11. Vladimir Verteletsky - arrested;

12. Press Secretary of the Ministry of Defense Rossiana Markovskaya - removed from office;

13. Lt. Gen. Aleksandr Burachenok, assistant to the Minister of Defense, was removed from office;

14. General Director of the Military Construction Enterprise Andrei Belkov - arrested;

15. Director of the Department of Property Relations Mikhail Sapunov - dismissed;

16. General Director of the Military Construction Enterprise Vladimir Pavlov - arrested;

17. Director of the Patriotic Park Vyacheslav Akhmedov - arrested;

18. Deputy Head of the Main Department of Innovative Development Maj. Gen. Vladimir Shestarov - arrested.

 

Sounds like Papa Putin didn’t get his cut of the graft!

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30 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

 how does the real estate taken in Kursk compare to what the Russians have been able to manage grabbing for the last couple months?

What metric are we using, square footage or impact on Putin's pride?

Realistically, do the Ukrainians have any chance of holding this territory? Obviously it shows that the Russian border is very porous but if Putin knows it will be regained at some point and doesn't care how many Russians are lost in the meantime, does it matter? Or is it just an attempt by Ukraine to temporarily divert Russian resources at a time when they are advancing on some fronts?

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