How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

Article from The War Zone on the attack on Morosovsk Airfield, they got to speak to Budanov. Pulled a few paragraphs below. Interestingly, the base was previously attacked in April, with Ukraine claiming 8 damaged and 6 destroyed aircraft, but no evidence via satellite imagery has backed this assessment. 

Quote

It's claimed that the operation was carried out via a mass drone attack. Ukrainian defense and intelligence units used at least 70 drones to strike the base Thursday, Ukrainian Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defense Intelligence Directorate, told us exclusively.

The Russian Two Majors Telegram channel claimed no jets were damaged. The Russian Kremlin Snuff Box Telegram channel claimed that while most of the drones were shot down before reaching the target, some made it through and six pilots were killed and another 10 troops were wounded as a result. Meanwhile, Budanov told us that a battle damage assessment is ongoing.

The operation was launched from inside Ukraine, Budanov said, adding that least 70, and maybe more Ukrainian Dragon and Splash drones struck the airfield. That tally is in line with what the Russian Two Majors Telegram channel said on Friday. Two Majors complained the attack showed major vulnerabilities in Russian air defenses against drones.

This was the second large-scale Ukrainian drone attack at Morozovsk in two months. It was also hit on April 5. Several videos and images emerged after that strike, which you can see below.

As we reported at the time, Ukrainian officials claimed that strike destroyed at least six military aircraft destroyed and badly damaged eight others. Kyiv also claimed that 20 Russian personnel on the base were killed or injured. The Kyiv Post Tweet of that claim can be seen below.

However, subsequent high-resolution Planet Lab images we obtained the following day showed no major damage at Morosovsk.

“The day before the attack, 29 jets were visible in parking areas across the facility. In the imagery obtained from Planet Labs, which was taken today, we can count the same number of aircraft, with no major damage being visible to them or to the base's infrastructure,” we noted at the time. 

https://www.twz.com/air/ukraine-strikes-blow-to-russian-su-34-fullback-base

 

[Joe982]

Ukraine has been hitting Russain air defence units. 

Does anybody know if they are hitting enough of them?

Does Russia have more to replace the damaged ones?

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, Joe982 said:

Ukraine has been hitting Russain air defence units. 

Does anybody know if they are hitting enough of them?

Does Russia have more to replace the damaged ones?

Something like 3000 S-300 units were produced from the 70's onwards. Obviously some were exported, some no longer in service or older ones virtuality obsolete. Not found any numbers yet on how many are likely to be in active service currently.

S-400 systems, western intelligence estimates are that 56 systems were in service at the start of the war. Since command, radars and launchers are separate vehicles within a single system that might be geographically dispersed it isn't clear what you'd count as a destroyed system.  Losses in Ukraine probably amount to 2-5 systems. Unclear how many 'spare' Russia has, since it depends on their willingness to take them away from  deployment in Syria, Moscow other border areas, or key infrastructure within Russia.

[Letter from Prague]

56 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

S-400 systems, western intelligence estimates are that 56 systems were in service at the start of the war. Since command, radars and launchers are separate vehicles within a single system that might be geographically dispersed it isn't clear what you'd count as a destroyed system.  Losses in Ukraine probably amount to 2-5 systems. Unclear how many 'spare' Russia has, since it depends on their willingness to take them away from  deployment in Syria, Moscow other border areas, or key infrastructure within Russia.

While launchers blow up nicely, I think to track actual capabilities it makes much more sense to track how many radars and command centers are destroyed. A battery without radar(s) or command center is out, no matter how many missiles it has remaining.

And it seems that's what Ukraine is mostly targeting as well, usually in videos you see a radar blown up and few launchers that explore because they're nearby.

[Carolus]

There seems to be a strange contradiction.

Ukrainian drone deep drone strikes seem to indicate that the Russian AD coverage has gaps and holes all over.

But Russia, on paper, should have enough AD batteries to draw a double cordon all around its border with Ukraine and still have enough to show a presence near the NATO border countries.

Yet there were also reports in 2022/2023 that Russia is pulling AD systems out of its northern garrisons.

At the same time the SEAD/DEAD attacks by Ukraine seem to be relatively sporadic. Some hits show radar vehicles being destroyed, but of the dozen attacks I remember seeing, it is often also launch vehicles which are going up in quite spectacular manner. Of which Russia really has tons of. 

Ukraine seems to intensify its attempts (as many hypothesize to provide F-16s with more wiggle room) but no one of the Russian depot OSINT bean-counters I saw indicated in any way that Russia is anywhere close to a shortage of AD systems.

I think it's good to see AD systems blow up, like any expensive Russian military asset, but a strategic shortage won't be happening, unless there is a big hidden surprise ala "Ivan, half the radar vehicles are filled with egg cartons!". Which might sound perfectly Russian, but I don't think we will be that lucky.

Edited Saturday at 12:35 PM by Carolus

[cesmonkey]

 

[hcrof]

More of this please! I don't know how they are doing it but the Russians are complaining that the Ukrainians are getting good at targeting fixed with drones to deny ISR

 

[Astrophel]

13 hours ago, ASL Veteran said:

 

 

Somethings should be done to persuade russians to surrender enthusiastically.  They seem brainwashed to continue resisting whatever.  My feeling a couple of years ago is that hiring a few Turkish holiday resorts might be a nice incentive.  Word would quickly spread ...

[Blazing 88's]

Bullets or Weapons: Rethinking Army’s Approach to SUAS Integration
by LTC Mitchell Payne
https://www.moore.army.mil/Armor/eARMOR/content/issues/2024/Winter Spring/12 Payne.pdf

[dan/california]

 

5 hours ago, hcrof said:

More of this please! I don't know how they are doing it but the Russians are complaining that the Ukrainians are getting good at targeting fixed with drones to deny ISR

 

Quote

7/ We urgently need to pay attention to this. There is nothing to protect our fixed-wing UAVs in the sky, so the only answer is to destroy the enemy’s fixed-wing drones in exactly the same way. Whoever is the first to clear the sky of the enemy's ISR UAVs will get amazing benefits (in combat)."

The above is the money quote. Russian ISR is HEAVILY reliant on these fixed wing UAVs, if the Ukrainians can do this at scale it will be at least as big a deal as Patriots being effective against ballistic missiles, maybe bigger. 

Edited Saturday at 07:02 PM by dan/california

[dan/california]

 

 

[dan/california]

How does the Russian army do crap like this, and not just dissolve?

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal.html

To the Ukrainians’ dismay, there was a crucial departure from what Ukrainian negotiators said was discussed in Istanbul. Russia inserted a clause saying that all guarantor states, including Russia, had to approve the response if Ukraine were attacked. In effect, Moscow could invade Ukraine again and then veto any military intervention on Ukraine’s behalf — a seemingly absurd condition that Kyiv quickly identified as a dealbreaker.

Russia tried to secure a veto on Ukraine’s security guarantees by inserting a clause requiring unanimous consent.

“The Guarantor States and Ukraine agree that in the event of an armed attack on Ukraine, each of the Guarantor States … on the basis of a decision agreed upon by all Guarantor States, will provide … assistance to Ukraine, as a permanently neutral state under attack…”

With that change, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team said, “we had no interest in continuing the talks.”

 

Ukraine would make a deal in day based on the current front lines. But Russia and The US, and Europe would all have to agree on something. Ukraine would join NATO and the EU at the same table, at the same time, signed by the same people. That is the ONLY guarantee that we don't do this again in a year or five, and the Ukrainians know it.

Edit: just to clarify, this is a long article about the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in the spring of 2022.

 

Edited Saturday at 07:28 PM by dan/california

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Ukraine would make a deal in day based on the current front lines. But Russia and The US, and Europe would all have to agree on something. Ukraine would join NATO and the EU at the same table, at the same time, signed by the same people. That is the ONLY guarantee that we don't do this again in a year or five, and the Ukrainians know it.

 

So I would love it if the West pulled a “Putin”.  Agree to everything, and then immediately violate the deal while denying it.  It sucks being the good guys sometimes.

[dan/california]

Last nights ISW lays out the nuttiness of Putin's current proposals in detail.

Quote

 

Key Takeaways:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-14-2024

• Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined his uncompromising demands for Ukraine’s capitulation as a prerequisite for "peace" negotiations in Ukraine, including the recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of occupied and Ukrainian-controlled territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, in an attempt to undermine the June 15-16 Global Peace Summit in Switzerland.
• Putin proposed to establish an alternative Eurasian and world security system with support from People's Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping, likely to undermine NATO.
• The Kremlin has frequently timed the intensification of its information operations, including negotiations, to coincide with major policy debates in the West in order to influence Western decision-making.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev continued to rail against Western colonialism while ignoring Russia's imperial history and contemporary Russian imperialist aspirations to dominate Russia’s neighbors in eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.
• Medvedev also promoted Kremlin information operations that aim to exploit Moldovan identity politics in order to disrupt Moldova's European Union (EU) accession by destabilizing Moldovan society.
• Medvedev also threatened Armenia on the eve of Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan's attendance at the June 15-16 Global Peace Summit in Switzerland.
• An unnamed senior US Department of Defense official reportedly said that the Biden Administration has no imminent plans to lift restrictions prohibiting Ukrainian forces from striking military targets in Russia’s operational and deep rear areas in Russian territory with US-provided weapons.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a large series of drone strikes against Russia on the night of June 13 to 14.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on June 14 that there are currently almost 700,000 Russian personnel in the "special military operation zone," which includes both occupied Ukraine and areas within Russia bordering Ukraine, during the meeting with participants of the "Time of Heroes" program.
•  

 

Edited Saturday at 07:48 PM by dan/california

[Carolus]

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/06/13/a_fiscal_crisis_the_west_is_on_the_wrong_side_of_cost_curve_1037896.html

 

Article mentioned basically everything that was discussed here in this thread as well:

Big expensive platforms that have all manners of high-tech add-ons piled onto them are not competitive in the kind of battlefield the war in Ukraine points towards.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

How does the Russian army do crap like this, and not just dissolve?

once again, ignorant fools appealing to authority, as if what has happened to them is some kind of mistake that will be rectified once known to the relevant folks higher up.  They seem to have no idea they are appealing to the same folks that sent them to die.  Kill the masters!  That is your only hope.  

[Offshoot]

9 hours ago, hcrof said:

More of this please! I don't know how they are doing it but the Russians are complaining that the Ukrainians are getting good at targeting fixed with drones to deny ISR

 

When the first video of a Ukrainian drone taking out a Russian fixed wing ISR drone came out a few of weeks ago there was comment about developing an integrated system for doing this. Now there have been 6, 7 or even  more videos, the latest today. Crews must be rarer than the drones themselves, though, so just how many drones would need to be taken out to make a difference? And how long do the Ukrainians have before another is airborne in a particular sector?

 

Edited Saturday at 11:06 PM by Offshoot

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Crews must be rarer than the drones themselves

But the "air to air" drones for lack of a better term are not doing any complicated flying until fairly late in the mission. They could climb to patrol height and fly their ready circuits either under computer control, or being flown by less experienced/trainee pilots. Just hand them over to the experienced guys for the attack run. 

The part I am far more interested in is the aforementioned infrastructure. How are they spotting drones, dispatching resources, and vectoring the kill vehicle close enough for not very good cameras to work.  I don't expect an answer to this question until after the war.

Also how long before the air to air drones don't have to do this the kamikaze way. This is the next step in the whole drone arms race. A big step, at that.

[photon]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They could climb to patrol height and fly their ready circuits either under computer control, or being flown by less experienced/trainee pilots. Just hand them over to the experienced guys for the attack run.

This is the sort of tactical (rather than technological) innovation that the revolution in sensors produces. You can specialize not just things like "pilot", but things like, "last 50 feet pilot" and "overwatch pilot". And the training loop on that will be fast, because you can run real missions several times per day, much less simulated ones.

[kimbosbread]

46 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The part I am far more interested in is the aforementioned infrastructure. How are they spotting drones, dispatching resources, and vectoring the kill vehicle close enough for not very good cameras to work.  I don't expect an answer to this question until after the war.

In several steps: You find the  Orlan-10 by looking at the radio spectrum, presumably, to say one of these things is in the air. Radio may be enough to get you a good heading, at which point your FPV interceptor can just head that way.

46 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Also how long before the air to air drones don't have to do this the kamikaze way. This is the next step in the whole drone arms race. A big step, at that.

China Lake has a $5k missile, 5lbs, 1lb warhead. But you need a biglier vehicle to carry that. Your small drone can just have some explosives and ball bearings on board.

[MikeyD]

The difference between combat drones and recon drones is the recon drones cost m-o-n-e-y. Because they have to be packed with 'stuff' to properly do their mission. The most extreme example is the US RQ-4A Global Hawk drone brought down by Iran some years back. That set the US back some $220 million dollars (max estimated dollar amount).

[ArmouredTopHat]

Really does show you that the Ukrainians have seemingly kept on top of things when it comes to the efficiency of drones, at least to the point where this particular individuals mind is set on some truly baffling explanations. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Seems Rheinmetall have some curious ideas with regards to what would otherwise be older / obsolete chassis. I certainly think such systems are going to be an immediate priority for many nations due to the conflict as at least a stopgap while considering long term solutions / force reorganisations. 

[sburke]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

How does the Russian army do crap like this, and not just dissolve?