How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Shocker... Russia is using all nasty means possible to keep prisoners signed up for military service, whether they want to or not.  Those with wounds aren't receiving documentation to get exemptions and payments.

I suspect similar, but slightly toned down, actions are being conducted with anybody that has a contract ending.  Best way to keep men at the frontline is to not let them leave.

 

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

A Russian war crime of a different sort... destruction of a German PzIV monument:

And speaking of Cope Cages, here's an example of why they're mostly like the Maginot Line for vehicles.  Sure, it has some utility if the attacker hits it, but if not it doesn't much matter if the drone hits the fuel cells:

Steve

[cesmonkey]

Russian telgrammers report an attack on the Berdyansk airfield:

https://t.me/fighter_bomber/14410

Quote

It's not a good morning.
At night, the crests attacked our airfield where the Army Aviation was based with ATACMS missiles.
One of the most serious blows of all time in the Northern Military District. If not the most serious.
There are losses in both people and technology.
It’s pointless to write about the fact that “we need to draw conclusions so that this doesn’t happen again.” This will happen again as long as the war continues. We must be prepared for this.

https://t.me/dva_majors/27536
 

Quote

The missile attack on the Berdyansk airfield was massive. Our comrades also report the possible use of this type of missile, and the use of cluster munitions is also mentioned. The number of missiles fired from the ground is estimated to be no less than 40, although this may be a subjective estimate.

The negative experience of developing and protecting our airfields was not taken into account.

Two majors
Telegram
Turned on the Z war
By all indications, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked Berdyansk at night using American ATACMS missiles.

 

[Carolus]

Of course they think that it was ATACMS. When the delivery of Leopards and Bradleys was announced they were suddenly spotted by Russians behind every bush and tree even weeks before they actually arrived.

It will be interesting to hear about losses in "technology" over the next days (though pilots and airframe specialists would be equally worthwhile targets in terms of "know how attrition" for Russia). It has been a while since Ukraine paid a visit to that airfield.

[Beleg85]

 

[Offshoot]

The Ukrainian SOF has posted info on the operation and named it, so it was a missile attack or...?

Full Google translate of the SFO Telegram post
 

Quote

 

Operation "DRAGONFLY". Successful operation of the SSO of Ukraine to attack airfields in Berdyansk and Luhansk

Special operations forces received information about the enemy's use of airfields in temporarily occupied Berdyansk and Luhansk, as well as the presence of a significant amount of aviation and special equipment and ammunition.

The specified information has been verified and confirmed. The coordinates and the necessary data have been transferred to the units of the Defense Forces. As a result of the fire strike on the night of October 16-17, the occupiers suffered significant losses.

According to the latest data, the following were destroyed in Berdyansk and Luhansk:

nine helicopters of various modifications
special equipment that was located at airfields
anti-aircraft missile launcher
ammunition warehouse
airfield runways were damaged

The ammunition depot in Berdyansk detonated before 4 am. The detonation in Luhansk lasted until 11 am.

Losses in the enemy's manpower amount to dozens of dead and wounded. Bodies are still being pulled from the rubble.

 

 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Offshoot

[Carolus]

Claims that these submunition fragments were found at Berdyansk airfield, which would mean ATACMS if true.

 

 

[Sekai]

50 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Claims that these submunition fragments were found at Berdyansk airfield, which would mean ATACMS if true.

 

That's how it's done, the enemy should only find out about weapon deliveries after they hit him.

[ZPB II]

Who could have thought attacking a NATO gas pipeline would lead to getting ATACMSed. 

Shocking turn of events.

[acrashb]

10 hours ago, acrashb said:

You could do this autonomously now, or very, very soon. 

Thinking for a few seconds more, going from what is possible to what it means, tactically:

• concealment is, as we've seen consistently, degraded dramatically.  More so with autonomy and increased range (better batteries, drone carriers fueled by gasoline or RTGs, etc.).
• cover is a completely changed concept.  It used to require as little as maybe 45 degrees ( e.g., a concrete pillar to crouch behind ).  Now it needs to be 720 degrees - 360 horizontally and 360 vertically.  But if your cover is 720, while you can't be attacked (short term, cover can be degraded), neither can you attack or move. So you pop open a door / hatch / pile of logs to attack or maneuver, and the waiting drone(s) swoop in.

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Offshoot said:

The Ukrainian SOF has posted info on the operation and named it, so it was a missile attack or...?

Full Google translate of the SFO Telegram post
 

 

Wow, ATACMS work just like we always said they would. I guess I should be happy they are finally there, and EDIT: NOT, bitter that they are fifteen months late.

 

Edited October 17, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

Read the whole thread. It is still fantastic that ATACMS is there and every Russian airfield in range will have to act like it.

[cesmonkey]

Video here of things burning at Berdyansk airfield:
https://t.me/operativnoZSU/119395

[cesmonkey]

Map of the distance involved:

 

[Bulletpoint]

14 hours ago, akd said:

Not sure what to say about this one. Tis the season for dark comedy I guess.

 

 

First thought: He could in theory have evaded it long enough for the battery to run out.

Second thought: He cold have shot it down if he had a rifle or a pistol.

Third thought: Why didn't he have one?

 

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

 

First thought: He could in theory have evaded it long enough for the battery to run out.

Second thought: He cold have shot it down if he had a rifle or a pistol.

Third thought: Why didn't he have one?

 

At 0:47 a writing "He shoots with a pistol"

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, ZPB II said:

Who could have thought attacking a NATO gas pipeline

Maybe Budanov will tell about this more detailed through 30 years %) 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/10/darkness-ukraine-israel-war/675662/

Two wars: one of conquest, one of terror, both aimed at national extermination. As the Atlantic contributor and Johns Hopkins professor Eliot Cohen has put it, these conflicts pit civilization against barbarians. If the barbarians win, they will inflict more devastation, expand their goals, and encourage other regimes to engage in similar barbarism. Over time, they will join hands and ally against us. They will have one another’s backs not because of any tripe about “honor among thieves” or Milton’s “firm concord” among devils damned but because they are not fools: They know that their survival depends on supporting one another in their crimes.

 

It is a better read by the light of burning Russian helicopters.

[Thomm]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

• ...Now it needs to be 720 degrees - 360 horizontally and 360 vertically.

Only 90 degrees vertically.

[akd]

Further confirmation (not really needed):

 

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

Second thought: He cold have shot it down if he had a rifle or a pistol.

Unlikely. I shoot competitively (locally), hang around good shooters, and I don't know anyone who could reliably get a smallish moving target with a rifle, let alone a handgun.  One could put shotshells in the handgun, but these have low range due to dispersion and ballistics (think maybe ten yards or so).
Volley fire from a platoon, maybe.  
So we've see a lot of EW guns taking down, or trying to, drones.  Next step is one or more soldiers in a platoon to also have physical means, like a net.

[Battlefront.com]

Well, well, well... this was a nice surprise to start off my day of info gathering

When I saw the first report of ATACMS I thought, as many of you did, that it was something like Storm Shadow.  But then I thought about the scale of the damage and figured that Ukraine didn't have that many to toss at one target.  Then half way down my scrolling we have confirmation it is ATACMS! (and perhaps GLSDB too).

Better late than never!

As we've discussed before, this will not be a "game changer" in the way some people think.  But it's pretty clear that if Russia wants to keep its rotary aviation active at the front they're going to have to figure out a very different way of operating. 

Fixed wing can still be based far enough away and still be in the fight, but even that is going to be stressed out as they will probably have to pull out of Crimea for good and that means extra time in the air just to get on station.  More fuel, more wear and tear on the equipment, more stress on the flight crews, etc.

Based on the reduction of Storm Shadow strikes I'm guessing Ukraine's plea for ATACMS had another angle which was if they didn't get them soon, their deep strike capability would be out of commission.

Now let's see if Germany starts sending Taurus as we have previously speculated (hoped) that they would come along with ATACMS.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Unlikely. I shoot competitively (locally), hang around good shooters, and I don't know anyone who could reliably get a smallish moving target with a rifle, let alone a handgun.  One could put shotshells in the handgun, but these have low range due to dispersion and ballistics (think maybe ten yards or so).
Volley fire from a platoon, maybe.  
So we've see a lot of EW guns taking down, or trying to, drones.  Next step is one or more soldiers in a platoon to also have physical means, like a net.

Yeah, we've talked about this before and reviewed reports from the front.  I think we've seen maybe 2 videos this whole war of small arms fire taking down a quad copter.  Shotguns work, but under such limited circumstances that it doesn't seem either side is investing in them.

Steve

[Hapless]

If every fire team has a grenade launcher... maybe it's time 40mm buckshot made a comeback for anti-drone use.

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, well, well... this was a nice surprise to start off my day of info gathering

When I saw the first report of ATACMS I thought, as many of you did, that it was something like Storm Shadow.  But then I thought about the scale of the damage and figured that Ukraine didn't have that many to toss at one target.  Then half way down my scrolling we have confirmation it is ATACMS! (and perhaps GLSDB too).

Better late than never!

As we've discussed before, this will not be a "game changer" in the way some people think.  But it's pretty clear that if Russia wants to keep its rotary aviation active at the front they're going to have to figure out a very different way of operating. 

Fixed wing can still be based far enough away and still be in the fight, but even that is going to be stressed out as they will probably have to pull out of Crimea for good and that means extra time in the air just to get on station.  More fuel, more wear and tear on the equipment, more stress on the flight crews, etc.

Based on the reduction of Storm Shadow strikes I'm guessing Ukraine's plea for ATACMS had another angle which was if they didn't get them soon, their deep strike capability would be out of commission.

Now let's see if Germany starts sending Taurus as we have previously speculated (hoped) that they would come along with ATACMS.

Steve

Yet another illustration of how Russia continues to be juked out of its shoes on the military intelligence front in this war. The Biden administration signaled strenuously that ATACMS were being delayed. It then sent them, the Ukrainians trained on them, set up a large scale attack and the Russians apparently missed it all completely. Now begins the scramble to pull Russian assets back out of range. All quite well executed.