How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

[Bufo]

 

[Bulletpoint]

Gen Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told an audience at the National Press Club in Washington on Friday that the counter-offensive was "advancing steadily, deliberately working its way through very difficult minefields... 500m a day, 1,000m a day, 2,000m a day, that kind of thing".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66075786

 

In which world is Ukraine advancing 500m a day? Not to mention 2000m a day?

[danfrodo]

Finally have something useful to contribute.  Below has info on swedish-trained brigade (21st mech) being deployed around Bakhmut.  Stridsvagen 122 (Leo2 ~A5-ish) + those very very very lovely CV90s w 40mm death dealing cannon.  Why Bakhmut?  Author believes it's because it's less well defended than some other areas and offers opportunity to threaten Donetsk area from the rear if that front breaks.  Seems to also be attracting RU reserves -- but UKR reinforcing also, so not sure how the math works out there.  Maybe good area to get the 21st Mech some battle experience? 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/1/2178584/-Ukraine-Update-Swedish-Brigade-deploys-to-Bakhmut-new-long-range-missiles-possible-for-Ukraine

 

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Gen Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told an audience at the National Press Club in Washington on Friday that the counter-offensive was "advancing steadily, deliberately working its way through very difficult minefields... 500m a day, 1,000m a day, 2,000m a day, that kind of thing".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66075786

 

In which world is Ukraine advancing 500m a day? Not to mention 2000m a day?

If you look at specific areas they are. Nothing really new in that statement. You are reading it too literally.  If you just read some of the posts above you can clearly see UA advances in different areas.  Granted it would be nice to see 500 & 1000 & 2000 all in one sector.  He didn’t however say that. 

[dan/california]

44 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Finally have something useful to contribute.  Below has info on swedish-trained brigade (21st mech) being deployed around Bakhmut.  Stridsvagen 122 (Leo2 ~A5-ish) + those very very very lovely CV90s w 40mm death dealing cannon.  Why Bakhmut?  Author believes it's because it's less well defended than some other areas and offers opportunity to threaten Donetsk area from the rear if that front breaks.  Seems to also be attracting RU reserves -- but UKR reinforcing also, so not sure how the math works out there.  Maybe good area to get the 21st Mech some battle experience? 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/1/2178584/-Ukraine-Update-Swedish-Brigade-deploys-to-Bakhmut-new-long-range-missiles-possible-for-Ukraine

 

At least a hard fake at the Donestk hook then, if the fake becomes the main effort, AND actually works, it is as close to war winner as the Ukrainians could hope for. Looking for excitement at the Kerch bridge very soon. It would cut the Russians off from both sides if the Ukrainians could get behind Donestk.

We have seen a coup in favor fighting the war better. The next guy might read his Lenin better and offer "peace , land, and bread" in return for installing him in the Kremlin.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

At least a hard fake at the Donestk hook then, if the fake becomes the main effort, AND actually works, it is as close to war winner as the Ukrainians could hope for. Looking for excitement at the Kerch bridge very soon. It would cut the Russians off from both sides if the Ukrainians could get behind Donestk.

We have seen a coup in favor fighting the war better. The next guy might read his Lenin better and offer "peace , land, and bread" in return for installing him in the Kremlin.

I suspect Bakhmut is an operation of opportunity that RU feels forced to respond to.  RU can't afford to have a breakthrough that threatens supply lines in the rear.  UKR will probably push as long as it makes sense from standpoint of attrition & fixing RU reserves.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

You did see I wrote AP mines? AT mines are of course a big factor in this war.

And you did see that I explicitly mentioned the video where I watched multiple Ukrainian soldiers of the 47th Mech Brigade get their limbs blown off while trying to rescue their comrades who also had AP mine injuries?  If you did, you will see that I also mentioned that an entire Mech Platoon is out of action.  Implied is that the Brads trying to rescue their comrades were vulnerable to AT mines and/or ATGM fire from the enemy and, at the very least, weren't being used for anything else for quite some time.

So again, what war are you watching that is showing that AP mines have no military value?  Because the war I'm watching shows the exact opposite.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Fenris said:

I think this is an as yet unseen example of precision counter battery

https://twitter.com/i/status/1675133004614696962

We saw some footage of this the other day, but it was from a different drone and it just showed the explosions of the SPGs, no real details.  This is a much better video.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

They are not "territorial" since beginning of 2022, when TD units were allowed to use out of their oblasts. All what left "territorial" is enlisting and deployment. Alas, training, motivation and equipment level VERY depends of battalions and brigade command. In hard spring and summer 2022, many TD were thrown in fire of positional warfare to compensate lack of infantry, because number of existing brigades (even together with National Guard, Foreign Legion, etc) didn't allow to cover all frontline. Commanders not always were competent, often higher commanders used TD units as "trench shell catchers" like and "rifle battalions" to save more regular troops

TD brigades from western Ukraine as far as at beginning of war already looked as "space troopers" in comparison with TD units of rest of Ukriane (except large cities lile Kyiv, Dnipro or Kharkiv) - local civil volunteers and oblast authorities equipped them enough (and, alas, there were many incidents, when TD troops frorced volunteer buses, passing to east with equipment, to "donate" them their stuff), but they didn't hurry to go to frontline. Enough number of people especially in Transcarpathia, Lviv oblast enlisted to TD with a hope they will serve in own region and will not be sent to front. So, when these TD units were getting an order to move east, there were many of refuses and protests of their wives. So, many TD battalions and brigades initially were going to front as combined forces from those who were ready to fight. 

Alas, pre-war conception of TD forces showed many mistakes during the war, so for this 1,5 years were made some steps to increase TD units capabilities, gradually TD units have been receiving more of heavy infantry weapon, DP-27 and Maxims have been substituting on modern MGs, but this process is still ongoing. With support of "Back-and-Alive" charity fund was fundrised big program "Long hand of TD brigades" - to equip each TD brigade with a full-equipped 120 mm mortar battery with mortars, jeeps, UAVs, fire control equipment, radio and network equipmnet etc. Now is continuing fundrising for program "The teeth of TD brigades" - to equip TD ALL battalions with modern AGL, MG, HMG etc. So, TD gradually becoming a "capable light infantry", approaching to pre-war motorized infantry brigades 

Thanks for the details!  IIRC a couple of TD units were upgraded to regular Army Brigades.  Didn't the 110th Mech come from that?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Gen Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told an audience at the National Press Club in Washington on Friday that the counter-offensive was "advancing steadily, deliberately working its way through very difficult minefields... 500m a day, 1,000m a day, 2,000m a day, that kind of thing".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66075786

 

In which world is Ukraine advancing 500m a day? Not to mention 2000m a day?

Sburke got to this first, but a reminder that he is talking about the offensive so far, in total, not what just happened recently.  2000m sized advances in one day occurred around Bakhmut, 2-3 times IIRC.  Nothing like that now, but again Millley is assessing the counter offensive since it started so it is valid to include them.

500m advances are actually not uncommon, even for areas not around Bakhmut.  Haiduk documented one from today, in fact:

So yes, Milley is correctly characterizing the advances relatively slow, yet steady.  Even 2000m in a day isn't exactly fast if it is in just one place.  What we all would like to see is multiple KMs advanced each day, every day, for weeks.  And we want them to be along the whole front, not just little pinpricks here and there.  But that is unrealistic for this phase of the counter offensive.  Ukraine has to get through those minefields you don't think have much military value before this can happen.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Slow and steady keeps Ukrainian units alive and improving while constantly attriting RUS forces. At some point in time and space, inevitably, the RUS line will be properly punctured -  and quickly fixed.  But the grind will continue and yet more local punctures will happen,  each time requiring patching, each time getting worse before being fixed until one can't be,  then another and another and finally the failure cascade will begin. 

The absolutely key thing is to keep that pressure on for months.

This seems to be the critical ZSU principal -  keep attriting while preserving. 

The math is inexorable.

But it could be August - September before we see actual Russian brigade level failures,  without being fixing. 

Edited July 2, 2023 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

But it could be August - September before we see actual Russian brigade level failures,  without being fixing.

We had all hoped that the Russian forces would crack early.  I'm sure Zaluzhny and his staff had hoped this as well, but it seems they pragmatically planned for this not being the case.  Smart, really smart even though it is pretty basic military doctrine... hope for the best, plan for the worst.

What we've seen evidence of is that Russia's forces are, in fact, as bad as we think they are.  The only reason they are holding is because it is so difficult to get through the minefields.  When Ukraine does get through them, Russian forces tend to fall apart quickly.  We're seeing this in Bakhmut for sure, bit also in isolated areas of the south where the defenses are thin.

All Ukraine has to do is keep poking around and pushing where it makes sense, all the while destroying as much of Russia's operational capacity as possible.  Ukraine is working from the right plan.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Newly uploaded video showing the details of a small unit action that happened on April 1st. I'm pretty sure we saw something of this when it happened, but maybe it was just a still or two.  This video is very detailed, but the gore is blurred out.  It shows how utterly stupid the Russians can be, how drones make all the difference, and in the end it still comes down to grunts getting in close to finish the job:

 

[billbindc]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Newly uploaded video showing the details of a small unit action that happened on April 1st. I'm pretty sure we saw something of this when it happened, but maybe it was just a still or two.  This video is very detailed, but the gore is blurred out.  It shows how utterly stupid the Russians can be, how drones make all the difference, and in the end it still comes down to grunts getting in close to finish the job:

 

Nasty. And really gets at the nature of the war for a lot of Russian mobiks. Out of position, out of their depth and essentially abandoned to their fate. I can't see how an army can lurch along for long if any significant portion of it is in that state.

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Nasty. And really gets at the nature of the war for a lot of Russian mobiks. Out of position, out of their depth and essentially abandoned to their fate. I can't see how an army can lurch along for long if any significant portion of it is in that state.

The Russian army has so little cohesion it can't figure out how bad off it actually is. In a very strange, unbelievably costly way, this sort of works.

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Author of video Valeriy Markus, he is not squad leader, he is in a rank of master-sergeant and he is chief sergeant of 47th brigade. Very ineteresting video, alas, only UKR subs.

Actually, with the Closed Caption (CC) option on the English subtitles are excellent, though they translate Russians as "suckers" even though we know what Ukrainians really call them

This is one of the best videos of the war.  Well worth watching every second of it.  The author (Markus) is someone I would want to be around in this situation.

As a reminder to people, this is the unit that got hit hard in the opening days of the offensive.  It seems they have opted to go on foot instead of using their Brads and other IFVs.  This is something Russians noted Ukraine doing far to the eastern side of the southern front.  It seems to be the best way to get through the minefields as the more brute force method of breaching didn't work out well in this sector.

Notice that AP mines play a significant role in this fight.  At first they are following a path laid out by sappers marked by blue tape.  At several points Marcus warns and advises about AP mines.  Towards the end he sends out a sapper to probe for mines along the path he wants his men to take.

As has been noted by other sources and our own observations, the Russian positions are very well made.  As observed, they are not like the crappy shallow trenches that Ukraine fought through in other sectors of front.  I just saw yet another video of the carnage Ukrainian artillery made out of mobiks in such positions.  Bodies everywhere.

The command post position they took over was LAVISHLY supplied with ammo and RPG rounds.  Markus even commented on the amount of stuff he was seeing there.  Of course anything other than a well planed withdrawal would result in such abandoned stuff.  Since the Russians don't seem interested in withdrawing except at the last minute, I'm guessing Ukraine will capture a LOT of stuff as it passes through similarly well equipped and hastily abandoned positions.

At the very end there is an abandoned or knocked out Russian tank.  Looks intact.  My guess is it was not functional at the time the unit had to withdraw in a hurry, otherwise it probably would have withdrawn.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Nasty. And really gets at the nature of the war for a lot of Russian mobiks. Out of position, out of their depth and essentially abandoned to their fate. I can't see how an army can lurch along for long if any significant portion of it is in that state.

These guys were probably some sort of outpost.  Why?  I doubt they had a radio and it was pretty obvious that the Ukrainians knew EXACTLY where they were.  They were providing Russia with absolutely no military function other than being grenade sponges. In any normal functioning military these guys probably wouldn't have been put there in the first place, but they would certainly have been withdrawn once it was clear they were identified.  But this is the Russian Army, and that means you go where ordered, no matter how stupid, and you stay there until you die or are captured.  Because withdrawing without being ordered to is not being exactly tolerated.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

16 hours ago, Haiduk said:

The map of southern flank of Kreminna sector, according to recent post of Mashovets. According to him, Russians intensified attacks here, likely having main objective to push off UKR troops to the line Serebrianka - Verkhniokamyans'ke in order to eliminate at last potentialy dangerous Bilohorivka salient, which UKR troops can use as bridgehead of advansing to Rubizhne, Lysychansk and Siverodonetsk. 

In recent weeks Russians have been conducting many probes and attack in this area, espesially from Dibrova - Kuzmyne line and they could push UKR behind main forestal cut-through, passing from west to east. It happened again during rotation, when 100th TD brigade substituted previous troops. But since this local success Russians couldn't advance anymore. Now is next attempt.

On the video 54th TD battalion of 100th TD brigade (of Volyn' oblast) repels Russian attack

 

 

 

Like Bahmut, this is yet another very strange, and costly, commitment of Russia's dwindling VDV elite infantry forces to eke out marginal territorial gains across woodlands and industrial estates that sharply favour (far fewer) defenders.  Fill yer jackboots there, Ivan....

My best guess as to the 'reasoning' is that the Kremlin is hedging against the probable collapse of the Kherson 'land bridge' by trying to regaing a ceasefire river line along (preferably) the Sivierski Donetz (Lyman), or at least the Oskil  (Torske).

So then they can claim that their 'real' objective all along was to 'liberate' and hold northern Luhansk, making the 2014 separatist republics more secure vs. Ukronazi terror bombardments blablabla.

Pretty pathetic logic, but those who are determined to swallow it will gulp it down, cuz Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia. Four legs goooood......

Anyone have any better theory?

Edited July 2, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Like Bahmut, this is yet another very strange, and costly, commitment of Russia's dwindling VDV elite infantry forces to eke out marginal territorial gains across woodlands and industrial estates that sharply favour (far fewer) defenders.  Fill yer jackboots there, Ivan....

My best guess as to the 'reasoning' is that the Kremlin is hedging against the probable collapse of the Kherson 'land bridge' by trying to regaing a ceasefire river line along (preferably) the Sivierski Donetz (Lyman), or at least the Oskil  (Torske).

So then they can claim that their 'real' objective all along was to 'liberate' and hold northern Luhansk, making the 2014 separatist republics more secure vs. Ukronazi terror bombardments blablabla.

Pretty pathetic logic, but those who are determined to swallow it will gulp it down, cuz Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia. Four legs goooood......

Anyone have any better theory?

You may be giving them too much credit. The Russian army in Ukraine is like a tire with a slow leak. In the end it will inevitably be very flat, in the mean time it just pushes back anywhere it can. If I may torture this analogy further, it gets very expensive very quickly to try and drive on the flat.

[sburke]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/wagner-revolt-could-leave-putin-023653169.html

Despite all of Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko’s chest thumping about his involvement in negotiating an end to Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s uprising in Russia, he might have set himself up for political instability, a top U.S. diplomat tells The Daily Beast.

With Lukashenko agreeing to have Prigozhin exiled to Belarus—and potentially having Wagner fighters move to Belarus—there are likely elite Belarusian politicians in Lukashenko’s circle who are eyeing the outcome of his negotiations with great distaste, U.S. Ambassador Michael Carpenter told The Daily Beast.

“I’m sure the top power in nomenklatura in Belarus is looking very carefully at what has occurred,” Carpenter, who has tracked the ins and outs of Lukashenko’s rule for years, told The Daily Beast. “Some of them are beholden to Russia and others very much want to chart a course for an independent, sovereign Belarus.”

Edited July 2, 2023 by sburke

[Offshoot]

CIA says wartime Russia is a rare spy-recruiting opportunity - https://www.reuters.com/world/cia-says-russia-is-recruiting-opportunity-disaffection-with-war-rises-2023-07-01/

"U.S. CIA Director William Burns said on Saturday that disaffection in Russia with the war in Ukraine was a once-in-a-generation opportunity to recruit spies - and that his agency was not letting it go to waste."

[Grossman]

8 hours ago, Bufo said:

 

It reinforces the fear that the Russians will blow part of the Zaporizhzhia plant. The sniffer would provide the evidence. If the Russians did so, goodness knows what the reaction would be. The sniffer would provide hard evidence so any military intervention would be based on factual data. We'd go into a crisis, but it might crystallise the conflict. 

[Letter from Prague]

6 minutes ago, Grossman said:

It reinforces the fear that the Russians will blow part of the Zaporizhzhia plant. The sniffer would provide the evidence. If the Russians did so, goodness knows what the reaction would be. The sniffer would provide hard evidence so any military intervention would be based on factual data. We'd go into a crisis, but it might crystallise the conflict. 

There will be no reaction, just like there was basically no reaction to all other Russian crimes against humanity.

[womble]

On 6/30/2023 at 11:48 PM, dan/california said:

Ukraine is already building kamikaze drones that can reach Moscow. It is simply necessary to explain to the Russians that they can start showing up by the several hundred per day, instead of a couple per week.

Because improving production of that sort of ordnance by three orders of magnitude is going to happen. Ukraine's ability to strike into Russia becomes magnified once they hold their entire border again, but they are already adjacent for quite a long stretch and it's not dissuading the Russians one iota. In fact, the Kremlin would welcome  an aerial drone assault campaign from Ukraine, since it would allow them to intensify the "defense of the Rodina" narrative for both internal and international consumption.