How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

If I understand that correctly that is the Territorial Army consisting out of ordinary men, farmers, clerks etc. Mean age aprox. above 40 years who did this feat. The russians are done for. No way they can turn this mess around anymore.

 

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by DesertFox

[Battlefront.com]

One thing I'll say about the Russo-China relationship.  In 2014 when the Evil West™ was conspiring against the freedom loving peoples of Russia, Putin made a big deal about becoming more tied to China to make up for frayed economic relations with the West.  At the time many argued it would not happen, but the Putinists were giddy about it.  Some very quick high profile deals were struck with China to prove that it was all going to happen.  Us doubters scoffed at these deals and predicted they wouldn't even happen, not to mention make a difference.  And guess who was proven wrong?  Yup, the Putinists did not break their losing streak on this one.

A 8 full years after Putin said Russia was going to look east instead of towards the west for its economic future.  It didn't happen.  Probably the opposite happened.  And yet Russia is trying to do the whole China-is-our-salvation song and dance again.  I'm not buying it.  China does not view Russia as a peer any more than anybody in the West does.  And the more toxic Russia becomes to the West, the less interested China will be in it.

Steve

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Whom would they be trying to fool with that? Anyone with even half a brain cell would realise Ukraine has zero interest in attacking Belarus while fighting to defend against Russia. Even Belarusian soldiers must realise that.

Aha but you forget, this entire war was conceived using a quarter of a brain cell, so theoretically....

Nope still dumb.

Perhaps the Belarus Glorifious and Only Partially Disheartened Militia can be a proving ground for that Foreign Legion the media keep churbling about.

 

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

But once there is coup you just get the next question. How many bits of non Russian ethnicity decide it is great time not be a small part of  big country. Decision influenced by the fact that the Russian military is currently getting the crap kicked out of it somewhere else. Lots of people get ideas when the Tsars mailed fist looks like it made out of tissue paper.

This is why Putin can't afford to move too many of his remaining standing forces into Ukraine.  Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ingushetia are the likely candidates for a quick departure.  Moldova will take back it's frozen territory pretty easily, I think.  Georgia will have another shot at taking back it's stolen territory, at least eventually.  Certain areas of the central and far eastern Oblasts will at least push for a new relationship with Moscow, if not outright independence.

Yup, it will be a mess for sure.

Steve

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

 

even MORE captured T72s?!?!?!  Those threads earlier about UKR having more tanks than they started with sure look like a good bet.  I gotta say, this warms my heart.  Every one of these destroyed/captured vehicles, often w a bunch of militia troops, old men, standing around admiring their own handiwork.  This is becoming an avalance.

[Machor]

How difficult would it be to import CMSF equipment and OOBs into CMBS?

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Aha but you forget, this entire war was conceived using a quarter of a brain cell, so theoretically....

Nope still dumb.

Perhaps the Belarus Glorifious and Only Partially Disheartened Militia can be a proving ground for that Foreign Legion the media keep churbling about.

This is a very big flaw in Putin's calculations.  Russians have spent centuries being told that Ukraine is just a bunch of Russians that don't always behave.  Belorussians, on the other hand, have not.  In fact, Belarus has more in common with Ukraine in terms of Russia than differences.  So Putin's ability to get Belorussians to put their hearts into attacking Ukraine is zero.

Steve

[Sequoia]

For anyone but Charles, impossible.

 

P.S. answering Machor.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Sequoia

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

even MORE captured T72s?!?!?!  Those threads earlier about UKR having more tanks than they started with sure look like a good bet.  I gotta say, this warms my heart.  Every one of these destroyed/captured vehicles, often w a bunch of militia troops, old men, standing around admiring their own handiwork.  This is becoming an avalance.

As I read it, it was the territory army consisting of old men which sprung that ambush. Impressive!

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a very big flaw in Putin's calculations.  Russians have spent centuries being told that Ukraine is just a bunch of Russians that don't always behave.  Belorussians, on the other hand, have not.  In fact, Belarus has more in common with Ukraine in terms of Russia than differences.  So Putin's ability to get Belorussians to put their hearts into attacking Ukraine is zero.

Steve

Many Belorussian soldiers will mostly be interested in surrendering as quickly as possible, and then escaping to take shot crossing the Polish border. The others are just making sure their ancient, badly maintained equipment clearly, really doesn't run. So they can just stay home.

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Machor said:

How difficult would it be to import CMSF equipment and OOBs into CMBS?

 

I think it's safe to say there will be very few prisoners taken of these fellas.  Do they have any idea what they are walking into?  and I am guessing they were 'volunteered' by Assad in thanks for all the murder and mayhem provided by Putin in Syria.  I hope they all die, and soon, and badly.

[Kinophile]

Don't underestimate 40 yr old farmer's. With motivation a d technical skills from maintaining their own machinery they can be a touch f*cking bunch. There's men back home in Ireland who I could totally see going about this in a calm, ruthless manner. 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Kinophile

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, db_zero said:

We may be approaching an inflection point where the main objectives are in play.

IMO the Russians are probably going to go the siege route. The gritty and costly nature of urban combat will be too risky. Putin has already authorized the payment of huge sums of rubles for families of soldiers killed or wounded and even tyrants have limits placed on the number of young men they can send to the meat grinder.

I would guess If the decision is made to assault urban centers it will be after a long siege and those foreign fighters from Syria and other places, however many their true number is, will be sent in first to wear down defenders and make the defenders use ammo and other supplies before Russian forces are used...

I was surprised when it was mentioned the US Army doesn't have any guide to urban warfare. That may have changed. A while back though I did see a write up about how the Pentagon was allocating money to train in subterranean warfare so that may be changing.

For those interested in the nuts and bolts of what may face the Russians should they decide to take urban areas by direct assault here are some interesting links.

https://mwi.usma.edu/the-eight-rules-of-urban-warfare-and-why-we-must-work-to-change-them/

https://mwi.usma.edu/urban-warfare-project/

https://www.marines.mil/Portals/1/MCWP 3-35.3.pdf

https://www.army.mod.uk/umbraco/Surface/Download/Get/11772

https://www.military.com/daily-news/opinions/2022/03/08/russia-doesnt-train-troops-urban-warfare-its-about-learn-consequences-ukraine.html

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/urban-warfare-ukraine-russia

A couple of good books on the subject:

Concrete Hell: Urban Warfare From Stalingrad to Iraq

Blood and Concrete: 21st Century Conflict in Urban Centers and Megacities

I've yet to find a good sim that models urban warfare in great detail. Its probably a very difficult thing to do anyway.

 

What a module called “Red Thunder; Fire and Rubble” by a company called “BattleFront?”

[DesertFox]

Just now, Kinophile said:

Don't underestimate 40 yr old farmer's. With motivation a d technical skills from.msintaoning their own machinery they can be a touch f*cking bunch. There's men back home in Ireland who I could totally see going about this in a calm, ruthless manner. 

Rest assured I have a hell of respect for this ukrainian territorial defense forces. It is just that in my head whenever I hear territorial defense forces I need to think of these guys:

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I think it's safe to say there will be very few prisoners taken of these fellas.  Do they have any idea what they are walking into?  and I am guessing they were 'volunteered' by Assad in thanks for all the murder and mayhem provided by Putin in Syria.  I hope they all die, and soon, and badly.

They literally are not worth the logistical cost of importing them. On the off chance this isn't pure hype though, I want tape of them experiencing their first cold, wet night in Ukraine That will probably take care of ten or twenty percent of them right there

[Kinophile]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Rest assured I have a hell of respect for this ukrainian territorial defense forces. It is just that in my head whenever I hear territorial defense forces I need to think of these guys:

Yah but they aint middle aged farmers, they's pensioners

[fireship4]

http://www.igorsushko.com/?m=1

A better place to read the 'FSB Letters' in case anyone missed them.

[Machor]

6 hours ago, Hister said:

Ha, they must have been playing Spintires/Mudrunner games where one can often get out of such muddy predicament and thought it will be all swell in the end.

Well, the catch is you winch your truck out of mud in Spintires / Mudrunner (which is obviously way more comfortable on your PC than irl), or get another truck to tow you out. As discussed by a US veteran in the thread below, the Russian military is simply abandoning vehicles in running condition once they get stuck, which is something they deal with all the time even in peacetime:

This thread also made me appreciate the importance of recovery AFVs, which get overlooked when playing with the 'glory boys' in CM.

[Kinophile]

I suspect a siege approach is probably the worst approach- it locks RUS forces in place, making them highly vulnerable to drone strikes, SOF f#ckery, TDF tractor strikes.

Massive mobile columns, thunder running across the country side, would be effective.

A Ruskie sitting in place in Ukraine is a Ruskie who'll be pushing up sunflowers in the summer.

 

[DesertFox]

Just now, Kinophile said:

Yah but they aint middle aged farmers, they's pensioners

Pensioners like him, or this guy? Tough men, no question.

[Vacillator]

9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Pensioners like him, or this guy? Tough men, no question.

I think @Kinophile meant that 'Dad's Army' was (mostly) pensioners?

In any case I have the utmost respect for anyone with the kahooners to go out and put their lives on the line to resist the invasion as those in the pictures are doing. 

[DavidFields]

14 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Pensioners like him, or this guy? Tough men, no question.

"The picture of that gentleman should be on the front page of the New York Times tomorrow. 

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Rankorian said:

"The picture of that gentleman should be on the front page of the New York Times tomorrow. 

Yes, impressive shot. You see the tragedy in his eyes.

Photos by documentary photographer Anatoly Stepanov, who is currently at the eastern front in #Ukraine.

Last photo: Wounded Ukrainian soldier Vasily just after a battle in the #Luhansk region. A few days ago he lost his son, also a soldier.

Tweet here: https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1502430893939564544?s=20&t=faHNwERQTUoKD0KrgBZlNg

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

I think @Kinophile meant that 'Dad's Army' was (mostly) pensioners?

In any case I have the utmost respect for anyone with the kahooners to go out and put their lives on the line to resist the invasion as those in the pictures are doing. 

Yes, I also have nothing but extreme respect for them.

Edited March 12, 2022 by DesertFox

[dan/california]

https://www.unilad.co.uk/news/putin-is-preparing-a-terrorist-attack-on-chernobyl-says-ukraine-defenc-20220311?source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2U06z4O83ZSeOPyXB671ScoPXbFHKO7LVkmZaK6eGHU1lT4KGJipvLwpI

 

So is this an excuse to leave? Or to launch a nuke? because his entire army is camped around it. I know he is peeved at their performance, but irradiating them seems unlikely to improve it. Though it would obviously suck for Kyiv, too.