How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BletchleyGeek]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Jesus, this stuff that keeps coming out from liberated lands is like from horror. But it is unfortunatelly very probable. There is a dog-tag of UA soldier in the video that seems fishy, but most of golden teeths were probably taken from older civilians, as golden dents were (and sometimes still are) popular in post-soviet countries. Russians could try to hide their trophies before leaving; they could also be common criminals- I wouldn't be surprised if organized crime would flourish in occupied territories.

 

Those images were indeed an example of the saying "an image is worth a thousand words" ... when the bandits are part of the armed forces then we are well into the Dirlewänger territory.

Also, thanks to @Haiduk for the comment about the green rays coming out of Russian cities. They looked really weird.

[chrisl]

5 hours ago, akd said:

Very interesting, but the rescue vehicle is a BRM-1K, not BMP-2.

The alleged range is up to 1500 km, but the claims of capability sound a little unrealistic.  And if they’re just on steady state they sound more like self illuminating targets than death rays.

edit- looks like I grabbed the wrong quote.  This was supposed to quote @Haiduk and the death rays.  I’m too inept with editing posts on the phone to fix it.

Edited October 5, 2022 by chrisl

[Blazing 88's]

4 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

 

 

I remember seeing that second video several weeks ago, imo definitely not new footage.

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, Huba said:

Snihurivka has fallen according to some RU telegrams.

 

 

Ride to the sound of the guns....

 

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Zeleban]

[Zeleban]

Ukraine has launched a state program to help unwilling Russians to surrender safely.

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

Ride to the sound of the guns....

 

 

 

Snihurivka probably hasn't fallen as of ten thirty pm west coast time. Apparently there was a joke on telegram that went viral with exaggerations. But as LLF pointed out earlier when things start to go this wrong for an army the usually don't stop. So by morning west coast time I wouldn't be surprised if it was a self fulfilling prophecy.

Ukrainian propaganda/info ops are simply flawless. I hope the U.S. has some prefab prison camps in containers in the desert somewhere. They are going to need them.

[Vergeltungswaffe]

8 hours ago, akd said:

OMG, dune buggy with MG3. Must have in CM.

I love that thing. WTB for BS.

Basically the modern version of Rat Patrol.

 

[Taranis]

9 hours ago, akd said:

OMG, dune buggy with MG3. Must have in CM.

I noticed too 

[Taranis]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

The worst part is that as a result these idiots share the video 

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers aboard a Kiev army armored vehicle, on a road between Izioum and Lyman in the east of the country, October 4, 2022. FRANCISCO SECO / AP"

* BMP-2


"A Russian army recruit carries ammunition during his military training in the Rostov-on-Don region in the Caucasus, October 4, 2022. AP"


"Russian army recruits during their military training in the Donetsk region, in pro-Russian controlled territory, October 4, 2022. ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO / REUTERS"
* Turkish flag patch ?

"Russian army recruits use assault rifles during their military training in the Donetsk region, in pro-Russian territory, on October 4, 2022. AP"


"Russian army recruits during their military training in the Donetsk region, in pro-Russian controlled territory, October 4, 2022. ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO / REUTERS"
* Note there is the same guy from the previous picture with the Flag/V patch


"Russian army recruits listen to their instructor during their military training in the Rostov-on-Don region in the Caucasus, October 4, 2022. AP"
* Two T-72(B3?) in the foreground and an interesting Ural-43206 in the background (a Ural-4320 variant with 4x4 instead of 6x6)

[Zeleban]

17 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Turkish flag patch ?

 

I think it's a patch with the flag of the USSR

[Hapless]

Bit of background on the Peresevet laser that might be responsbile for funny light columns in Russia:

https://www.thespacereview.com/article/3967/1

Raises some questions with interesting answers, such as:

• Does dazzling/blinding US satellites constitute a direct attack on NATO?
• These are supposedly systems designed to accompany road-mobile ICBMs in order to make it harder for the US to track them- so (aside from the way it looks like it can't function on the move) what are they doing in Belgorod?
• Is this just posturing to reinforce nuclear threats, intended to reassure the Russian people or part of scheduled nuclear exercises?
• It looks like Peresevet lives in very easily identifiable shelters at/near bases for Russian road mobile ICBMs that the US have got to be monitoring constantly, so what countermeasures has the US got up it's sleeve?
• Would it be cheaper to get a load of searchlights and point them at the sky on a cloudy night to pretend you have some new Wunderwaffe?

[Huba]

The RU propaganda is crazy (from Podubny channel with 900K subscribers). I don't believe RU has means to strike this dam with enough force to destroy it, but just the notion that somebody would do that is terrifying:

Quote

In the Zaporizhzhia region, Kyiv's provocations at the Dnieper hydroelectric power station are not ruled out. We are talking about a possible undermining of the APU of the hydroelectric dam.

According to the data, the Kyiv regime is ready to sabotage the DneproGES in order to disrupt the planned offensive of the Russian army.

In the event of a dam break and uncontrolled release of water, the consequences for the region will be catastrophic.

According to experts, in this case, a 20-meter wave will go down, which will cover all the cities located along the banks of the Dnieper.
The Zaporizhzhya NPP, located downstream, will also suffer.

 

[Zeleban]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

The RU propaganda is crazy (from Podubny channel with 900K subscribers). I don't believe RU has means to strike this dam with enough force to destroy it, but just the notion that somebody would do that is terrifying:

 

A typical Russian intimidation tactic.

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

Bit of background on the Peresevet laser that might be responsbile for funny light columns in Russia:

https://www.thespacereview.com/article/3967/1

Raises some questions with interesting answers, such as:

• Does dazzling/blinding US satellites constitute a direct attack on NATO?
• These are supposedly systems designed to accompany road-mobile ICBMs in order to make it harder for the US to track them- so (aside from the way it looks like it can't function on the move) what are they doing in Belgorod?
• Is this just posturing to reinforce nuclear threats, intended to reassure the Russian people or part of scheduled nuclear exercises?
• It looks like Peresevet lives in very easily identifiable shelters at/near bases for Russian road mobile ICBMs that the US have got to be monitoring constantly, so what countermeasures has the US got up it's sleeve?
• Would it be cheaper to get a load of searchlights and point them at the sky on a cloudy night to pretend you have some new Wunderwaffe?

Also as a little sanity check, military observation satellites go as low as possible to get the best view they can, so they operate in low earth orbit. For satellites in low earth orbit, the *maximum* time the satellite can be above the horizon is 20 minutes. So a system targeting a single spy satellite is going to go from pointing more of less due west, to straight overhead, to due east in the space of under 20 minutes. It is tracking a relatively fast moving target. If it is just pointing straight up all the time and not moving, then it certainly isn't directly targeting a satellite in low earth orbit.

 

However ifc it is just being a very bright light to cause atmospheric scattering, and act kind of like a fog over the area, then that might be plausible, but then talk about its range is irrelevant: is effect is purely locally on the lower atmosphere. And a wide array of normal search lights might just do a better job (won't swear to that: there may be some specific mechanism in atmospheric physics that the laser is meant to stimulate).

Edited October 5, 2022 by TheVulture

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers on an armored vehicle on a road near Lyman, in the Donetsk region, on October 4, 2022. ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP"

[Hapless]

3 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Also as a little sanity check, military observation satellites to as low as possible to get the best view they can, so they operate in low earth orbit. For satellites in low earth orbit, the *maximum* time the satellite can be above the horizon is 20 minutes. So a system targeting a single spy satellite is going to go from pointing more of less due west, to straight overhead, to due east in the space of under 20 minutes. It is tracking a relatively fast moving target. If it is just pointing straight up all the time and not moving, then it certainly isn't directly targeting a satellite in low earth orbit.

 

How if it is just being a very bright light to cause atmospheric scattering, and act kind of like a fog over the area, then that might be plausible, but then talk about its range is irrelevant: is effect is purely locally on the lower atmosphere.

Good point. The size of the beam in the pictures also seems ridiculous if it's supposed to be hitting a satellite at 1500km, so maybe they are trying to light up the cloud base a la Artificial Moonlight in order to mess with satellite surveillance.

I have no idea how well that would work and it definitely doesn't sound like you would need a fancy high tech laser for that.

[Huba]

6 hours ago, Butschi said:

If you are concerned about the unity of the western alliance, you should instead have a word with PiS who had the weird sense of humor to just now demand 1.3 trillion € as reparations for WW2. At the very least the timing sucks...

I don't have words to express how utterly stupid and embarrassing this is  They next parliamentary elections are a year from now, the levels of craziness will only be increasing during this time. Long time ago I promised to myself not to vote on the other team (the previously ruling PO/ Civic Platform) due to their arrogance and ineptness, but I'm reconsidering, PiS is slowly but surly destroying the country, especially in the international relations department. They won't rule forever in any case, Kaczynski is getting older and when he's gone they will surely rip each other apart.

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Good point. The size of the beam in the pictures also seems ridiculous if it's supposed to be hitting a satellite at 1500km, so maybe they are trying to light up the cloud base a la Artificial Moonlight in order to mess with satellite surveillance.

I have no idea how well that would work and it definitely doesn't sound like you would need a fancy high tech laser for that.

RU has a very limited number of Presvets that does not correspond to the number of light beams observed. There are two RU versions that are interesting for us

• Rare Natural phenomena (photo below from last year at Petersburg area)

• Searchlight against UAV - RU unofficially claim RU radars are unable to pick up UAV due to weak return. So, claim is they use searchlight to illuminate the skies for visual observation. 

 

[Kinophile]

19 hours ago, Grigb said:

If my skill of smelling RU tealeaves is still good RU is much worse shape than we think. They cannot send anybody even to Chernopopivka. And UKR are already at outskirts of Kreminna. It is one step to Stary Krasnyanka.

Plus digging in is not the way to fight this offensive.

UKR has simply brute-forced the nature of the war is this theater into medium-long range maneuver (instead of the previous attrition format) with forces deliberately trained, built and supplied with that in mind.

RUS by contrast is still in a static attritional configuration (and seems unable to adapt -  surprise) with the added insult that RUS command (ie Putin)  has thrown the whole theater to the wolves.Operational level forces do exist for RUS to attempt to stall or stop the offensive, but are clearly being held back.  RUS "reinforcements"  seem to be just local units shifted from tactical crisis to crisis, with consequential erosion and eventual destruction. 

The previous read we've noted here, that Putin seems to not care about Luhansk, seems to being borne out on the ground, to UKR s reward. 

I suspect North Luhansk will fall to a combination of perfectly opposite objectives and priorities:

-  UKR actually wants Luhansk & the border and has built a force to achieve that. 

- RUS (Putler) does not need Luhansk and has refused to waste operationally significant forces defending it. The MoD seems to be trying to support the defence but I suspect Putler is constantly interfering and corrupting their attempts. 

So UKR will hit the border, eventually and inevitably. 

Then turn south, to directly threaten something Putler has made clear he does care about -  the land corridor to Crimea.

That's when we'll see how much Putler cares,  and by inference how many Russian men he wil send to get slaughtered to defend that priority. 

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Kinophile

[chrisl]

3 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Good point. The size of the beam in the pictures also seems ridiculous if it's supposed to be hitting a satellite at 1500km, so maybe they are trying to light up the cloud base a la Artificial Moonlight in order to mess with satellite surveillance.

I have no idea how well that would work and it definitely doesn't sound like you would need a fancy high tech laser for that.

Which is kind of silly because if it's monochromatic all you have to do is ignore that wavelength or band that includes that wavelength.

If they're pointed statically and shining up, they're entirely for show and not doing anything besides send a message that says "blow me up next"

This seems to be the most likely answer:

Quote

Would it be cheaper to get a load of searchlights and point them at the sky on a cloudy night to pretend you have some new Wunderwaffe?

It's entirely plausible that the system never actually worked.  They may have built something that lased with a high output, and they may even have done a demo where they set something on fire at some moderate distance.  But there are some relevant technologies that I suspect RU doesn't do very well, if at all, that are necessary to keep the both keep from toasting your own optics and get the beam through the atmosphere without scattering all the energy away.

[CAZmaj]

Chechen volunteer explains to people why there are no massive uprisings in Russian occupied territories not only in Ukraine but in the Caucasus

 

 

 

[Huba]

Plot thickens. Turns out Czechia will use Kralovec (former Kaliningrad) as base for it's aircraft carrier! Or so say their American overlords! (more hilariousness in the comments, I spit my coffee more than once)

And the Pilsner 1 space rocket:

Edited October 5, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]