How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

In an amazing piece of RUMINT I just came across, RU is negotiating deployment of DPRK expeditionary corps in Ukraine. No way to treat this seriously, but the concept itself and it’s potential ramifications are just too hillarious not to mention it.

If this idiotic idea does materialize and North Korean soldiers are forced to fight in Europe I could already see them using this as an opportunity to go AWOL and defect. Especially after they get a taste of what the war in Ukraine is like for the invading forces.

[Calamine Waffles]

On 8/4/2022 at 7:29 AM, Taranis said:

French 120mm RTF-1 mortars use PR-14 shells (more commonly known as OE-120-F1 in the French army). They have the characteristic of having a detachable tubular tailboom at the rear when the shell leaves the mortar. I don't know though if the Russians can have the ability to shoot them. I still have a doubt because the shell is pre-rifled and the Russian mortar would therefore have to have exactly the same mortar rifling.

It's been claimed that the more modern Nona can fire Western 120 mm mortar ammunition, but obviously I've never tried it so I don't know for sure.

[dan/california]

 

28 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

If this idiotic idea does materialize and North Korean soldiers are forced to fight in Europe I could already see them using this as an opportunity to go AWOL and defect. Especially after they get a taste of what the war in Ukraine is like for the invading forces.

Wait until they are in a critical spot and offer all of them $10,000 and Ukrainian citizenship to change sides. Oh, and all the pork and cabbage they want. They would turn around and take Moscow for that, more or less literally.

Have south Korea send a plane load of spices and kim-chi, literally send the smell of it wafting across the front lines.

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Short material showing training on SPG-9, with some tactical information aabout organization of their units.

Instructor said about training unit organisation. There are no SPG-9 battalions (divizions for arty) in 3 bateries in 5 barrels in regular units. They have usually 3 SPG-9 in AT-platoon of battalion's fire support company.   

[cesmonkey]

I thought the below article was interesting:

I'll quote what I consider to be the most important paragraph:
 

Quote

In fact, when military gear is designed with usability in mind, the results are promising. For example, “The Ukrainian military has gotten its troops trained on using the HIMARS remarkably quickly; they were deployed on the battlefield within weeks of their arrival,” Grid reported. Why is this advanced precision artillery system so easy to use? Because Army acquisition professionals worked hard to make it so. “We updated the user interface from a human factor standpoint as the software intuitively guides the Soldier through the conducted mission,” Amber Marsh, HIMARS software sustainment division chief, told an Army magazine. “We strive to make the interaction with the software as easy and intuitive as possible for the end user.”

HIMARS shows it can be done. The rest of the acquisition community would do well to follow suit.

 

HIMARS’ Hidden Superpower and Other Acquisition Lessons from Ukraine
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/08/himars-hidden-superpower-and-other-acquisition-lessons-ukraine/375420/

[Grigb]

Got five minutes out of family life. Here is a small update - found today's video about RU "liberation" of Pervomaiske village that was previously in grey zone. Well, there is one Pervomaiske village that could be said to be situated in a grey zone. It is located behind Bridge Republic looking from Pisky. 

There was no any claims of fights. Just this story that RU "liberated" the village. That means UKR simply pulled back from both Bridge Republic and Pervomaiske. Well, Anthill alone will not hold RU thrust toward Vodyane and probably it is abandoned as well (no claims of fight there).

The battle of Pisky is finished.

Edited August 5, 2022 by Grigb

[Haiduk]

Commander of UKR 169th Training center (Desna, Chernihiv oblast), colonel Oleh Dehtiariov got lost in Maryinka area. His documents were showed on Russian propagandist TG channel. UKR media today also confirmed his death.

Since 2014, 169th training center has been participating in combat actions, esteblishing own forces from company to battalion tactical group.

 

Edited August 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

Reportedly US is readying another arms package for UA, bigger one this time, and very soon after the previous. Obviously PGMs are flowing with a stream. I wonder if ATACMS will be announced finally, it would hugely add to the „shock and awe” effect of starting UA offensive.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-us-readies-new-1-billion-ukraine-weapons-package-2022-08-05/

[danfrodo]

20 minutes ago, Huba said:

Reportedly US is readying another arms package for UA, bigger one this time, and very soon after the previous. Obviously PGMs are flowing with a stream. I wonder if ATACMS will be announced finally, it would hugely add to the „shock and awe” effect of starting UA offensive.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-us-readies-new-1-billion-ukraine-weapons-package-2022-08-05/

maybe don't announce ATACMS.  Just let it be a nice surprise on the kerch bridge.  Now that would a fun to see the RU nat posts after that. 

And pisky has fallen.  So either RU can still fight offensively or UKR decided to put it's forces elsewhere.  Or UKR actually tried to hold on but lost due to shortages of men & material -- that seems unlike but it's possible.

The plot thickens. 

[Haiduk]

32 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Got five minutes out of family life. Here is a small update - found today's video about RU "liberation" of Pervomaiske village that was previously in grey zone. Well, there is one Pervomaiske village that could be said to be situated in a grey zone. It is located behind Bridge Republic looking from Pisky. 

There was no any claims of fights. Just this story that RU "liberated" the village. That means UKR simply pulled back from both Bridge Republic and Pervomaiske. Well, Anthill alone will not hold RU thrust toward Vodyane and probably it is abandoned as well (no claims of fight there).

The battle of Pisky is finished.

Here another point of view

Initial message from Litator:

- In coming week many changes await us. Follow the broadcast. Everybody took a break for now. And we do our job

- Sir, excuse me, because theese Russian moth...rs have f...d me - does "Republic" still exist?

- YES

 His 'yes' has written two-three hours ago

[Haiduk]

Brylivka railroad station (Kherson oblast) before the war and after HIMARS strike at military train on 29th of July

[Haiduk]

503rd Marines battalion in Maryinka cought two squads of DPRs

 

[Grigb]

33 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Here another point of view

Initial message from Litator:

- In coming week many changes await us. Follow the broadcast. Everybody took a break for now. And we do our job

- Sir, excuse me, because theese Russian moth...rs have f...d me - does "Republic" still exist?

- YES

 His 'yes' has written two-three hours ago

Interesting, thank you. Do you know if there is any other Pervomaisk village?

Could they stage it with a different village?

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Reportedly US is readying another arms package for UA, bigger one this time, and very soon after the previous. Obviously PGMs are flowing with a stream. I wonder if ATACMS will be announced finally, it would hugely add to the „shock and awe” effect of starting UA offensive.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-us-readies-new-1-billion-ukraine-weapons-package-2022-08-05/

Pardon me for quoting myself, but the linked article also mentions NASAMS ammunition. If that is true, then the system is about to be delivered ( probably coming from NO stocks?), and it might be the last piece of puzzle needed for UA offensive to start.

BTW were there any news about UA use of excalibur or other guided 155mm ammo lately? I recall one vid of SMArt and that is all. IMO it is being saved for the offensive too…

Edited August 5, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

40 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Interesting, thank you. Do you know if there is any other Pervomaisk village?

Could they stage it with a different village?

Pervomaysk (emmm... PervomayskE) "was in grey zone even before SMO"? OMG. What the idiot.  

I can't state anything of course, but looks like this is the same "liberation", like "seizing" of Siversk. From other our twitter wrote Pervomayske is our. This was 6-7 hours ago. Unclear situation. 

I believe Safiulin meant exactly Pervomaiske behind Pisky

Edited August 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Daryivka bridge area reportedly under the strike about hour ago. 

Locals also write there are several srikes during last night and this day, allegedly also on AD positions. OC "South" for last day claimed four Russian S-300 launchers were hit as well as radar 9S19 Imbir' of S-300V complex, which capable to track ballistic missiles.

[DesertFox]

A rare beast in action. T-84 Oplot.

 

 

[Grigb]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Pervomaysk (emmm... PervomayskE) "was in grey zone even before SMO"? OMG. What the idiot.  

I can't state anything of course, but looks like this is the same "liberation", like "seizing" of Siversk. From other our twitter wrote Pervomayske is our. This was 6-7 hours ago. Unclear situation. 

I believe Safiulin meant exactly Pervomaiske behind Pisky

Very strange video. I searched for details, and some sites claim it is from Luhask region. Also there is second video  with woman from the settlement. She talks about Bakhmut as if it is near. Also, she said: "Aidar" *, the 72nd brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and "Azov" * were stationed in their village. Does not look like our Pervomaiske.

Anyway, there are reports that Pervomaiske is contested (no word about Republic) and some UKR soldiers are still in five-stories buildings. So, even Pisky is still contested. Finally, looks like at Pisky UKR command returned arty and tanks.

What is interesting is the talks about long static war (like Iran-Iraq war).

Edited August 5, 2022 by Grigb

[Calamine Waffles]

This is the tank commander who was filmed earlier in the war ambushing that Russian convoy near Nova Basan
 

 

[billbindc]

 

"munitions for long range" HIMARS and NASAMS. We'll see but don't be surprised if the UA's range suddenly increases. The US is all in and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. 

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

"munitions for long range" HIMARS and NASAMS. We'll see but don't be surprised if the UA's range suddenly increases. The US is all in and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. 

Last time these drawdowns were made so rapidly was at the height of „Second Phase” RU offensive. Indeed it looks like US is stepping up. More and more signs that UA offensive is imminent.

Edited August 5, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Beleg85]

38 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

This is the tank commander who was filmed earlier in the war ambushing that Russian convoy near Nova Basan

I saw interview with him some time ago, it was longer and richer in details (this skirmish at Nova Basan is one of better documented engagements so far in this war). Interesting thing is that he said "it was raining, so they didn't spot our tank in pixelated camouflage".

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Instructor said about training unit organisation. There are no SPG-9 battalions (divizions for arty) in 3 bateries in 5 barrels in regular units. They have usually 3 SPG-9 in AT-platoon of battalion's fire support company.   

Thanks for clarification. I suspected they may alternatively want to create central reserve in case of sudden Russian armour push.

 

https://wartranslated.com/ukrainian-brigadier-general-dmytro-krasylnykov-about-lysychansk-and-morale-of-ua-soldiers/

Part of translated interview with UAF explaining circumstances of Lysychansk retreat.

Edited August 5, 2022 by Beleg85

[Calamine Waffles]

  

25 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I saw interview with him some time ago, it was longer and richer in details (this skirmish at Nova Basan is one of better documented engagements so far in this war). Interesting thing is that he said "it was raining, so they didn't spot our tank in pixelated camouflage".

The most interesting part was he said he was using a T-72B. This suggest he was in one of the reserve tank units.

On a different note, I think Nielsen has the right assessment on how Russian gas tomfoolery will affect the war: it relies on way too many questionable assumptions, like Europeans being spoiled weak people unable accept any sort of privation.
 

 

Edited August 5, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Calamine Waffles said:

On a different note, I think Nielsen has the right assessment on how Russian gas tomfoolery will affect the war: it relies on way too many questionable assumptions, like Europeans being spoiled weak people unable accept any sort of privation.

Awesome analysis!  As he says towards the end... if even one of Russia's wild assumptions fails to happen, then their plan fails. And there are several there that are assured to not go Russia's way.

I really hope the Chinese leadership doesn't get as stupid as the Russians.  Because that is what it would take for them to invade Taiwan.  Abject stupidity. Just like Russia.

Steve