How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

My hope for the NK troops:  they will be used as backstop chain dogs to shoot RU soldiers that turn back or retreat.  Then we'll get drone vids of RU & NK troops fighting it out.  Just a little dream I am dreaming.  Would be hilarious if the NK troops could actually spark mutinies in this way.  Unlikely they'd be used this way, but we've seen dumber stuff.

[MSBoxer]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

What gives this more credibility is that it's coming from the Wall Street Journal.  Right leaning and, as far as I'm aware, not on an anti-Musk kick.  In other words, the timing of this info drop doesn't appear to be related to the elections per se.  Plus, it's entirely believable.  We even know, from Musk himself, that he's spoken to Putin directly and taken actions that Putin wanted.  Well documented.

Steve

Yes, but the Wall Street Journal also published the news about the 51 intel experts claiming that Hunter Bidens laptop was disinformation.  That is why I focus on the "sources" for the article.

I am not saying that this is false, I don't have enough info, the sources might help that.  I also have no idea what Musk did when asked to shut down starlink.  

To be clear, while I respect the hell out of what SpaceX is doing, I have no deep admiration for Mr. Musk.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

Houtis are only capable of this because Russia and Iran keep supplying them. If those two countries get enough of their own trouble (or if Trumps wins elections and Russia and Iran want to give him an easy win), things can stabilize pretty quickly.

This is of course true, but it is also true most of the worlds unpleasant non-state actors that rise above the level of an unpleasant criminal cartel. The Houthi's, Hezbollah, both sides of the Sudanese civil war, and many others exist, at least in anything like their current form, because their sponsors want them to. It is an unpleasant reality that a well funded intelligence service with some military hardware and money to "give" away can create absolute chaos across broad parts of the planet as long as it doesn't care one iota about how many people it kills and immiserates in the process. Furthermore  trends in technology are making this worse every day. And if there is anything we have established it is that Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran simply do not care.

Edited Friday at 09:36 PM by dan/california

[danfrodo]

25 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Yes, but the Wall Street Journal also published the news about the 51 intel experts claiming that Hunter Bidens laptop was disinformation.  That is why I focus on the "sources" for the article.

I am not saying that this is false, I don't have enough info, the sources might help that.  I also have no idea what Musk did when asked to shut down starlink.  

To be clear, while I respect the hell out of what SpaceX is doing, I have no deep admiration for Mr. Musk.

Good point, we need to wait for more information.  What we do know is that Musk is a megalomaniac white-supremacist fascist -- based on what he says and chooses to re-tweet and his disgusting love of America's Favorite Fascist.  We are seeing multiple reports that Musk chats with Putin, one-one.  Let's see if this can be verified.  If it's not verified, it doesn't change what Musk actually already is.  

[dan/california]

I would thik the NSA has records of this. That the calls happened, even if if the are to encrypted to read. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Could just be some propaganda but I suppose we will see. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Flak is back, and more lethal than ever. 

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I would thik the NSA has records of this. That the calls happened, even if if the are to encrypted to read. 

I doubt very highly that these calls are not fully intercepted.

[alison]

34 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Yes, but the Wall Street Journal also published the news about the 51 intel experts claiming that Hunter Bidens laptop was disinformation.  That is why I focus on the "sources" for the article.

This is a misrepresentation of the letter, which you can read here: https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175-4393-d7aa-af77-579f9b330000

Wikipedia source link: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_statement_on_the_Hunter_Biden_emails

Plenty of people used this statement to spread their own misinformation, but that was already true of the entire nothingburger from the moment the original story dropped in the New York Post. This was pretty clear to anyone outside the US partisan propaganda bubble both at the time and in the tedious years following, when the same rumors and allegations and debunkings were trotted out and mined over and over again by partisans trying to score points against each other.

I agree that caution is to be urged on this topic too. But in urging caution, I think it's important not to perpetuate misrepresentation of the source material, since it's that misrepresentation that forms a large part of the problem.

[MSBoxer]

30 minutes ago, alison said:

This is a misrepresentation of the letter, which you can read here: https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175-4393-d7aa-af77-579f9b330000

Wikipedia source link: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_statement_on_the_Hunter_Biden_emails

Plenty of people used this statement to spread their own misinformation, but that was already true of the entire nothingburger from the moment the original story dropped in the New York Post. This was pretty clear to anyone outside the US partisan propaganda bubble both at the time and in the tedious years following, when the same rumors and allegations and debunkings were trotted out and mined over and over again by partisans trying to score points against each other.

I agree that caution is to be urged on this topic too. But in urging caution, I think it's important not to perpetuate misrepresentation of the source material, since it's that misrepresentation that forms a large part of the problem.

You are correct, I should have paraphrased that 51 intel experts claimed that Hunter Bidens laptop had the earmarks of Russian disinformation

The result is the same as my intent, in fact it backs up my point that news organizations can intentionally or unintentionally skew public opinion with their reporting.  Your link to the actual letter shows that source material matters, which was my initial point.

[FancyCat]

props to BBC Russia reporter for asking the question. 

Quote

This here, from Putin, in response to @BBCSteveR's question about Russia's security and how it has worsened since the invasion of Ukraine, is very revealing.

Before presenting his usual case about NATO enlargement etc etc (summed up here: https://bbc.com/news/videos/c9vn8z2wwy9o) Putin says: "we were being constantly shown our place" by the West.

This basically excludes any peace settlement in UA without the West recognizing Ru as a co-equal with a Ru veto power over any Western security moves in Europe and beyond. Ru demands for “indivisible security” are about Ru veto power over the West

 

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

You are correct, I should have paraphrased that 51 intel experts claimed that Hunter Bidens laptop had the earmarks of Russian disinformation

The result is the same as my intent, in fact it backs up my point that news organizations can intentionally or unintentionally skew public opinion with their reporting.  Your link to the actual letter shows that source material matters, which was my initial point.

Sure, be careful with what you read.  Always good advice.  But knee jerk caution or rejection is not really a useful practice.  I also don't see any reason to tie it the current election (as you did).  That's sliding towards conspiratorial, not healthy skepticism.

What we know is that Musk has been espousing pro-Russian and anti-Ukraine stuff for some time now.  Musk himself stated that he spoke to the Russian Ambassador about attacks on Crimea and then, very soon after, nuked Ukraine's access to Starlink in the area of Crimea while it was engaged in an active operation.  He also floated some BS Russian "peace proposal" and advocated Ukraine giving up Crimea.  This is in addition to positions he's been increasingly advocating for that are totally inline with others who hold similar pro-Russian and/or anti-Ukrainian views.

Here's an AP article about the Wall Street Journal's report:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wall-street-journal-sinks-trump-pal-elon-musk-s-denials-reports-secret-regular-contact-with-putin/ar-AA1sViSb?cvid=791aa57f280944fdb46890de2f4d02b0&ei=39

Really, all the WSJ is reporting is something that is pretty obvious, therefore it shouldn't be treated as suspect.  Especially because Musk could sue the WSJ for defamation if it weren't properly vetted.  I'm treating this as "probably true" unless it is otherwise debunked.

Steve

[MSBoxer]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I also don't see any reason to tie it the current election (as you did).  That's sliding towards conspiratorial, not healthy skepticism.

Steve, I am not tying it to the current election, I am tying my skepticism to every election.  I am also most prone to question items that fit with my pre-existing world view to ensure that my innate bias does not cloud my perception and overwhelming need for proper analysis.

[chuckdyke]

Yes, we play a war game and war is politics by different means. Questions is, where do we draw the line? Even the parameters we use is tight to politics. Playing SF2 realistic parameters as outlined by local politics is part of the game. Don't damage the mosque or preserve the schools. Now we have BS with the Ukraine. Russians seemingly are not bothered about schools or Orthodox Churches. Ukraine can't reply in kind. Remember Elon Musk has only one vote. As an influencer I don't regard him at all. I quitted Twitter because of him. 

[chris talpas]

While Musk has only one vote, he does control X/Twitter that can algorithmically promote certain views which can influence those who mistrust the mainstream media.

[CHARLIE43]

On 10/24/2024 at 1:58 PM, ArmouredTopHat said:

 

One of the things I thought about through this whole video are the C2 problems that could arise. It's kinda obvious that there were probably a lot of casualties during the assault and I just kept thinking, what happens when all of the normal secure channels of C2 are lost or seriously degraded? Whether it be the military radios in the vehicles themselves, or those on designated "radiomen" are lost, what could be the line of communication with command that say a band of regular infantry or crew could use once the objective is reached? Of course the UAVs are going to give a sense of what is going on, but is it possible that the one means of communication that almost all humans have these days is used in such a case? The cellphone?

Should that be taken into account in future implementations of CM? So, the lesser military doesn't have some complex PDA or satellite system backed by the elite powers of country X. But it seems that just about every person on the planet has some form of communication through these little devises. Why not take that into account as well?

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, CHARLIE43 said:

One of the things I thought about through this whole video are the C2 problems that could arise. It's kinda obvious that there were probably a lot of casualties during the assault and I just kept thinking, what happens when all of the normal secure channels of C2 are lost or seriously degraded? Whether it be the military radios in the vehicles themselves, or those on designated "radiomen" are lost, what could be the line of communication with command that say a band of regular infantry or crew could use once the objective is reached? Of course the UAVs are going to give a sense of what is going on, but is it possible that the one means of communication that almost all humans have these days is used in such a case? The cellphone?

Should that be taken into account in future implementations of CM? So, the lesser military doesn't have some complex PDA or satellite system backed by the elite powers of country X. But it seems that just about every person on the planet has some form of communication through these little devises. Why not take that into account as well?

Well yes, but there also ever more capability track civilian cell phones in real time. Very soon, if not now, the Brigade fire control center would using those signals to refine the location of the person using them to the centimeter. The fact that the ordinance is only good to a meter or two won't matter much.

We also can't be very far from being able to simply tell a drone to go find a specific SIM card. Actually that is something else I would almost bet money is already at least in prototype.

Edited 20 hours ago by dan/california

[LongLeftFlank]

https://gcaptain.com/u-s-sanctions-force-temporary-shutdown-of-russias-arctic-lng-2-project/

The project could aim to restart production next summer when regular LNG carriers can once again reach the project. However, a lengthy shutin exceeding six months will be difficult to implement and may require months of preparation to restart production without risking damage to the reservoir. The previous shutdown lasted less than four months between April and July 2024.

Visible flaring.

****

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-02/russians-who-fled-war-return-in-boost-for-putin-s-war-economy

(unpaywalled)

Facing rejections when renewing residence permits, difficulties with transferring work and money abroad, and limited destinations that still welcome them, they’re opting to end their self-exile.

Reverse migration has likely added between one-fifth and one-third to Russia’s 3.6% annual economic growth in 2023. Still, returning workers only constitute an estimated 0.3% to the total number of employed. That does little to ease the acute shortage on the labor market, but underscores repatriates’ outsized contribution to economic activity.

Edited 19 hours ago by LongLeftFlank

[CHARLIE43]

19 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Well yes, but there also ever more capability track civilian cell phones in real time. Very soon, if not now, the Brigade fire control center would using those signals to refine the location of the person using them to the centimeter. The fact that the ordinance is only good to a meter or two won't matter much.

We also can't be very far from being able to simply tell a drone to go find a specific SIM card. Actually that is something else I would almost bet money is already at least in prototype.

I brought it up because I've seen all kinds of video that seem to be from cellphones and such, and even bullets embedded in them from this battlefield is why I asked. There is even video of what looks like a soldier on a BMP texting, just as it gets hit with something (most likely not because someone got a FISA warrant! lol). Sure there is probably a good and bad time to go texting a commander further up the chain. As far as whether or not to implement them in CM, I was kinda referring to what seems like a total lack of C2 is certain situations, when in fact there might actually be some sort of comms going on beyond the usual means is all.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, MSBoxer said:

Steve, I am not tying it to the current election, I am tying my skepticism to every election

I didn't say this election meaning this cycle, I did mean any election.  People are looking to deceive 24/7/365, so putting your guard up for a narrow slice of time means you're leaving your guard down for the rest.  I don't think that is a healthy way to engage with information.

4 hours ago, MSBoxer said:

 I am also most prone to question items that fit with my pre-existing world view to ensure that my innate bias does not cloud my perception and overwhelming need for proper analysis.

Sure, but if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck... it probably is a duck and not a pigeon.  Thinking "well, it could be a pigeon because it's election season" isn't a particularly useful way to filter information IMHO.

But we digress.  The fact is that people in both public and private sectors have been increasingly spooked by Musk's behavior generally.  And because he's (maybe) the richest man on Earth and has space deployment under his control, THAT kind of skepticism is absolutely justified.  This is definitely someone whose behavior should be scrutinized.

Steve

[JonS]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

We also can't be very far from being able to simply tell a drone to go find a specific SIM card. Actually that is something else I would almost bet money is already at least in prototype.

What's the supposed value proposition here?

[CHARLIE43]

Of course I make a wisecrack (FISA warrant and all) and eat my words....

https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-military-leaders-need-rethink-battlefield-intelligence-smartphone-era

Ukrainian forces recently leveraged Russian phone signals to strike a temporary base in the occupied city of Makiivka, killing dozens (or more—the toll is highly disputed). The Russian Defense Ministry subsequently issued a rare statement attributing the unprecedented loss to the widespread, albeit unauthorized, use of personal phones. While powered on, the phones had been pinging Ukraine’s cellular network, allowing Ukrainian forces to triangulate precise location information.

Then this PDF report:

https://www.enea.com/insights/location-tracking-on-battlefield/

Maybe, my whole idea doesn't pan out, but then again both state some reasons for using cellphones.

Edited 16 hours ago by CHARLIE43
more info

[The_Capt]

And the Russian monkeyshines continue:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russian-actors-made-fake-video-depicting-mail-in-ballots-for-trump-being-destroyed-fbi-says-1.7088062

 

[Letter from Prague]

17 hours ago, Lieutenant Ash said:

Russia's central bank raises interest rate to 21% to fight inflation boosted by military spending

Russia’s central bank on Friday raised its key interest rate by two percentage points to a record-high 21% in an effort to combat growing inflation as government spending on the military strains the economy’s capacity to produce goods and services and drives up workers’ wages.

The central bank said in a statement that “growth in domestic demand is still significantly outstripping the capabilities to expand the supply of goods and services.” Inflation, the statement said, “is running considerably above the Bank of Russia’s July forecast,” and “inflation expectations continue to increase.” It held out the prospect of more rate increases in December.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/russia-s-central-bank-raises-interest-rate-to-21-to-fight-inflation-boosted-by-military-spending/ar-AA1sV28R?ocid=socialshare&pc=NMTS&cvid=08771b3b770c4f169b7738d5e045282a&ei=9

Economic stresses ramp up.

Man, this is going to be tight. Either president Trump forces "peace" and end of sanctions, or Russia is going downhill fast.

[Holien]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

Either president Trump forces "peace" and end of sanctions, or Russia is going downhill fast.

One of those two is impossible the other is possible.