How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

So they decided to just hand it to Trump then. Welp. Let's enjoy the world breaking, then.

Biden was LOSING. It will take at least a month for the new nominee to be finalized, and see where we are at now. I will take one last roll of the dice over certain defeat any day.

[Battlefront.com]

Let's keep the unrelated chatter about US politics out of here.  The relevant part of this announcement is that Trump will be opposed by someone else in this coming election.  That someone is likely, but not certainly, Harris.  As it relates to Ukraine, nothing has changed because whomever replaces Biden will carry on supporting Ukraine and Trump will be Trump.

The only impact of this decision is what chance the current Ukraine policy (and in some respects the global order) has of continuing.  From my perspective, the announcement changed the status quo from a near certain Trump victory back to a toss up.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1e8osa7/ir_ua_artillery_recon_command_battery_buar_of_the/

[IR] (UA) Artillery Recon Command Battery [BUAR] of the 47th Mechanized Brigade Destroyed a Russian Remote Minelaying System "Zemledeliye" in the Pokrovsk direction. (Published on July 21, 2024)

 

A truly spectacular boom, just to cheer everyone up.

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Let's keep the unrelated chatter about US politics out of here.  The relevant part of this announcement is that Trump will be opposed by someone else in this coming election.  That someone is likely, but not certainly, Harris.  As it relates to Ukraine, nothing has changed because whomever replaces Biden will carry on supporting Ukraine and Trump will be Trump.

The only impact of this decision is what chance the current Ukraine policy (and in some respects the global order) has of continuing.  From my perspective, the announcement changed the status quo from a near certain Trump victory back to a toss up.

Steve

Thanks Steve, I was already worried about what was about to happen on the forum.  

Meanwhile, in the war: It seems both sides are getting worn out on some level, as we hear rumors & also some real info that each side is hinting toward looking for way to suspend hostilities.  In your esteemed opinions, what is actually possible for suspending open hostilities?  I understand that whatever happens will be temporary, since Putin will never stop and UKR will never completely accept so much stolen territory.  But where can this go?  Both sides have significant portions of the populations heading back to pre-electricity world.  Is there something that might actually happen as far as some kind of deal, however temporary>

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Well, the game isn't over at least!

 "As President Biden often says, 'The United States will support Ukraine for as long as it takes.' We will not waver." (VP Kamala Harris, 2/19/23)

 

Act accordingly.

[kimbosbread]

Yeah, as exciting as US politics are right now (and will continue to be for the forseeable future), whatever happened to those F16s? Ukraine has been swatting down an awful lot of radars all over Russia and Crimea, so what’s happening now?

[ArmouredTopHat]

4 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Yeah, as exciting as US politics are right now (and will continue to be for the forseeable future), whatever happened to those F16s? Ukraine has been swatting down an awful lot of radars all over Russia and Crimea, so what’s happening now?

Nothing concrete as of yet but I doubt we will know when exactly they will start operating until we get pictures of them flying overhead.

Soon is probably the reasonable answer. 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Let's keep the unrelated chatter about US politics out of here.  The relevant part of this announcement is that Trump will be opposed by someone else in this coming election.  That someone is likely, but not certainly, Harris.  As it relates to Ukraine, nothing has changed because whomever replaces Biden will carry on supporting Ukraine and Trump will be Trump.

The only impact of this decision is what chance the current Ukraine policy (and in some respects the global order) has of continuing.  From my perspective, the announcement changed the status quo from a near certain Trump victory back to a toss up.

Steve

Hmm frankly Kamala's chances does not look very bright. Nobody seem to particulary like her except core establishment. Trump will run over her like a train, at least it looks so from European perspective. Biden should decide much earlier.

And fact of democratic support is one thing, how to support is the other. So question to US members, In context of Ukraine- do some potentiall counter-candidates, if they would try to run for nomination (Newsom?) have different views on strategy in this war? Like we know that "doves" from Sullivan circle in White House did slowed down support over last year, so in potentiall new cabinet this attitude vs. Russia could change into more active stance. Or perhaps it is too early too tell now?

28 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Yeah, as exciting as US politics are right now (and will continue to be for the forseeable future), whatever happened to those F16s? Ukraine has been swatting down an awful lot of radars all over Russia and Crimea, so what’s happening now?

One small piece from behind the curtains is that facilities here (both training programms and logistical ones) will be made available for Ukrainian F-16. Scale of cooperation is yet unknown but Zelensky publically announced it already; probably joined training/air defence patrols are very soon to start or already being conducted.

Edited July 21 by Beleg85

[Vanir Ausf B]

6 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

WTF? So 2025 sounds like make it or break it for Russia in terms of equipment, both artillery and IFVs. Can they compensate entirely with drones for offense, or is offense dead after next year?

The delusion of offense, perhaps. Actual offense has been dead for a while now.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Hmm frankly Kamala's chances does not look very bright. Nobody seem to particulary like her except core establishment. Trump will run over her like a train, at least it looks so from European perspective. Biden should decide much earlier.

And fact of democratic support is one thing, how to support is the other. So question to US members, In context of Ukraine- do some potentiall counter-candidates, if they would try to run for nomination (Newsom?) have different views on strategy in this war? Like we know that "doves" from Sullivan circle in White House did slowed down support over last year, so in potentiall new cabinet this attitude vs. Russia could change into more active stance. Or perhaps it is too early too tell now?

To soon to tell. We need to be sure it is Kamala before we can figure out anything else. Having said that, any democrat is very, very likely to stay within the general direction of Biden's current strategy. The variation would probably be 20 percent more, or twenty percent less, if that.

Edit: And even If the democratic candidate wins the Presidency, te exact level of Ukraine support will depend on the make up of Congress,.

Edited July 21 by dan/california

[Vanir Ausf B]

28 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Yeah, as exciting as US politics are right now (and will continue to be for the forseeable future), whatever happened to those F16s? Ukraine has been swatting down an awful lot of radars all over Russia and Crimea, so what’s happening now?

According to Zelensky, F-16s have not arrived yet as of 3 days ago.

Of course, he could be lying.

[Holien]

Can we please heed Steve's advice re the election and new candidate. People are posting opinions not fact and a week is a long time in politics. I would love to wade into the BS comments but I will restrain...

We have plenty of weeks to go.

So enough unless it relates directly to Ukraine...

[Battlefront.com]

Yes, please!  If anybody wants to read informed opinions about who might replace Biden and/or Harris' chances of beating Trump, there's a few thousand articles you can read out there.  Wait a few days and it might be 10s of thousands.  Most of them offering greater insights than a few passing comments here.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Woe for Hungary....

Good decision, long overdue, Orban rat****ery on Ukraine is shameful, and the holdup of weapons from EU to Ukraine, they should have cut the pipeline way sooner. 

Quote

Hungary is racing against time to avoid power outages and fuel shortages after Ukraine imposed a partial ban on Russian oil passing through its territory.

Kyiv last month imposed sanctions blocking the transit of pipeline crude sold by Moscow’s largest private oil firm, Lukoil, to Central Europe — partially negating an exemption to sanctions set up by the European Union to give Russian-reliant countries extra time to wean off supplies.

Ukraine's aim is to throttle a key source of revenue for the Kremlin’s war chest more than two years after its full-scale invasion of the country.

But the move is sparking fears of supply shortages in Budapest, which relies on Russia for 70 percent of its oil imports — and Lukoil for half that amount.

“The Ukrainian measures could create a severe situation,” Ilona Gizińska, a researcher and Hungary expert at the Centre for Eastern Studies think tank, said. She added that Hungarians could face sky-high energy prices and electricity shortages in just “weeks” unless it finds a solution.

According to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air think tank, Hungary spent almost a quarter of a billion euros on Russian crude and gas in April this year alone.

The Lukoil ban comes as relations between Kyiv and Budapest grow increasingly tense. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week hit out at Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán for meeting Russian leader Vladimir Putin as part of a self-declared “peace mission” this month. Budapest has also persistently held up EU weapons deliveries to Kyiv. 

https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-fuel-crisis-ukraine-sanctions-russian-oil-imports-lukoil-central-europe/

Edited July 21 by FancyCat

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, please!  If anybody wants to read informed opinions about who might replace Biden and/or Harris' chances of beating Trump, there's a few thousand articles you can read out there.  Wait a few days and it might be 10s of thousands.  Most of them offering greater insights than a few passing comments here.

Steve

Just to set everyone's minds to rest, I decided not to throw my hat into the ring.

[Battlefront.com]

If it's the hat in your avatar, then I am saddened.  It would at least add some levity to the situation or, at the very least, make a social commentary on the situation we find ourselves in!

Back to the real news... Hungary.  I wonder how much of this was decided on by Orban's ring kissing move.  I mean, the obvious national security reasons to shut down Russian oil have been there right from the start.  Maybe Orban's most recent stunt backfired?

This won't be good for Ukraine given the political situation in both the US and Europe.  As some have speculated in the last few pages, support for Ukraine is hitting the inevitable point of fatigue.  Putin knew it would happen, though he was wrong about the timing and the amount of support that would come into play against his plans.

Interesting development to say the least.

Steve

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

Just to set everyone's minds to rest, I decided not to throw my hat into the ring.

The nation is deeply saddened.  Surely your other work in securing the safety and prosperity of the realm will continue unabated?

[Kraft]

Some archival GoPro footage from the summer offensive

 

 

Edited July 22 by Kraft

[Butschi]

6 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Woe for Hungary....

Good decision, long overdue, Orban rat****ery on Ukraine is shameful, and the holdup of weapons from EU to Ukraine, they should have cut the pipeline way sooner. 

https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-fuel-crisis-ukraine-sanctions-russian-oil-imports-lukoil-central-europe/

I'm not so sure this was a good decision.

While certainly understandable, what does it actually gain Ukraine? How bad does losing that source of income hurt Russia? Orban took a lot of flak for going on his so called mission of peace and pretending to speak for the EU while having no mandate whatsoever. So, had Ukraine just sat back, Orban would have aggravated the rest of the EU (again) and embarrassed himself achieving nothing. There were already nice articles how Russia rewarded this peace mission with another wave of bombing civilian targets in Ukraine.

Now Orban, who more or less controls Hungarian media, can spin it as Hungary (not just Orban!) being punished for trying to negotiate peace. No doubt Ukraine was ordered by evil USA, UK and EU who don't want peace. Ties in perfectly with Orban's narrative that EU is to blame for everything. The other Putin friends all over Europe will merrily help Orban spread the word.

[Carolus]

12 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I'm not so sure this was a good decision.

While certainly understandable, what does it actually gain Ukraine? How bad does losing that source of income hurt Russia? Orban took a lot of flak for going on his so called mission of peace and pretending to speak for the EU while having no mandate whatsoever. So, had Ukraine just sat back, Orban would have aggravated the rest of the EU (again) and embarrassed himself achieving nothing. There were already nice articles how Russia rewarded this peace mission with another wave of bombing civilian targets in Ukraine.

Now Orban, who more or less controls Hungarian media, can spin it as Hungary (not just Orban!) being punished for trying to negotiate peace. No doubt Ukraine was ordered by evil USA, UK and EU who don't want peace. Ties in perfectly with Orban's narrative that EU is to blame for everything. The other Putin friends all over Europe will merrily help Orban spread the word.

I believe there is actually an ancient fable about this.

"But now we will both surely drown" said the Hungarian toad.

"Lol" said Budanov. "Lmao." And activated his jetpack.

 

Orban's full control of the media means he can already spin anything in any way. 

That won't make fuel prices go down. 

Now he will have to make a deal with someone else. These someones are countries with deep sea ports for tanker ships, like the Netherlands.

Ukraine just increased the diplomatic leverage of the EU over a Russian vassal while reducing Russian income. 

In any other situation we would call this a master stroke of a political maneuver. But because we are p---yfooting around a genocidal dictatorship, we focus on the negatives.

[cesmonkey]

Update from Ukrainian CiC Oleksandr Syrskyi:
https://t.me/osirskiy/774
 

Quote

I work in the hottest areas of the Eastern Front. The enemy does not pay attention to the rather high level of losses and continues to rush in the direction of Pokrovsk. Fierce fighting continues in Krasnogorovka, in the Progres, Zalizny, Northern, and Chasovoy Yar districts.
The occupiers do not stop trying to capture Stelmakhivka and Makiivka, they attack our positions in Ivanovsky, Klishchiivka, and try to capture the islands of the floodplain on the left bank of the Dnipro River. In fact, active combat operations of varying intensity are taking place along the entire front.

What can and should we do in order to stop the offensive of the numerically superior enemy?

There is only one answer: effective fire damage to the enemy’s main forces and its reserves on distant approaches, complex damage to the enemy in front of the front edge, stable holding of lines and positions prepared in terms of engineering, maximum effective use of all the capabilities of weapons and ammunition, primarily combat drones, in which we have preference As well as mastering new methods of destroying the enemy's reconnaissance UAVs in conditions of a total shortage of short-range anti-aircraft missiles, only with the use of EW and fpv drones.

Nothing new, it seems. At the same time, it requires mastery in the use of weapons and equipment, accurate fire, maneuvering with fire, forces and means - that is, high-quality training of all categories of servicemen to perform combat tasks.
It is important to prepare the staffs of all levels in order to maximize the combat capabilities of the troops and minimize our losses.
Therefore, this time he also checked the progress of preparing the reserves for participation in hostilities. I note the maximum approximation of the classes to the real combat situation, the use of drones with resets and fpv drones to simulate the actions of the enemy, which allows us to train our soldiers to practically destroy this extremely dangerous type of weapon.

It is worth using our advantage in the use of combat drones and fpv drones in the destruction of enemy UAVs.

I met with each commander of the brigade that conducts
the defense in the directions of the enemy's main actions, discussed the issues of increasing the effectiveness of our actions, replenishing losses, providing ammunition, and solving other problematic issues.
Of course, he thanked our soldiers for their courage, resilience and heroism, which they show every day in the defense of our state, and presented awards!

I believe in our Victory!
Glory to Ukraine!

 

[cesmonkey]

Pretty big update from Konstantin Mashovets.
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2048

Below, just some excerpts:
 

Quote

Today's review will be about the Kharkov operational direction.

The command of the enemy's group of forces (GV) "North" did not abandon the previously assigned tasks of breaking through in the area of Volchansk and reaching the rear of our Kupyansk group along the general direction of Volchansk - Bely Kolodets - Bolshoy Burluk ...

Quote

Therefore, the conclusion regarding further actions of the enemy in the Kharkov operational direction can be the following:
The enemy is still capable of carrying out some active (in the sense of offensive) actions there for a certain time...

But, without a radical increase in efforts (and this is obviously not 1-2 brigades in a "half-disassembled" state) he will obviously have to "severely limit the enormity of his original plans" ...

At present, the Russians have received their "micro-Verdun" (Volchansk) in this direction, which, in fact, grinds down the enemy's reserves, which, clearly, according to the plan, were intended for something completely different ...

Moreover, the enemy, in order to achieve the fulfillment of some more or less immediate tasks (capture of Volchansk and forcing the Volchya River), has to throw into this furnace, in general, reserves from completely different directions, also very relevant for him.

Quote

Therefore, the further we go, the more the meaning and expediency of this entire Kharkov "offensive" of the Russian command becomes more and more debatable and controversial... The capture of 6 villages 10 km from the border and 1/3 of the city of Volchansk, in the sphere of the "cost-result" ratio, look, to put it mildly, not quite adequate...

 

[mosuri]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

I believe there is actually an ancient fable about this.

"But now we will both surely drown" said the Hungarian toad.

"Lol" said Budanov. "Lmao." And activated his jetpack.

 

Orban's full control of the media means he can already spin anything in any way. 

That won't make fuel prices go down. 

Now he will have to make a deal with someone else. These someones are countries with deep sea ports for tanker ships, like the Netherlands.

Ukraine just increased the diplomatic leverage of the EU over a Russian vassal while reducing Russian income. 

In any other situation we would call this a master stroke of a political maneuver. But because we are p---yfooting around a genocidal dictatorship, we focus on the negatives.

The best the EU has managed so far with orban is to withhold some EU funds, and even that is not because of the toad blocking aid to Ukraine. About time someone sticks it to him for real.

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

I believe there is actually an ancient fable about this.

"But now we will both surely drown" said the Hungarian toad.

"Lol" said Budanov. "Lmao." And activated his jetpack.

 

Orban's full control of the media means he can already spin anything in any way. 

That won't make fuel prices go down. 

Now he will have to make a deal with someone else. These someones are countries with deep sea ports for tanker ships, like the Netherlands.

Ukraine just increased the diplomatic leverage of the EU over a Russian vassal while reducing Russian income. 

In any other situation we would call this a master stroke of a political maneuver. But because we are p---yfooting around a genocidal dictatorship, we focus on the negatives.

I have heard the argument "They shouldn't have done X, now the enemy will use it against them in media" about so many Xs, I can't even take it seriously anymore. Seems Ukraine should just sit and let themselves be bombed because anything they do will be used against them.

[Holien]

Ukraine is going to be a cold and dark place this winter. Those that support Russia in doing this need to understand that actions have consequences.

Winter is coming...