How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

I’ve watched enough Stranger Things to know not to breach the cosmic fabric.  Was only meant as harmless pun.

 Not that one..the other one.  It is the name-that-steals-the-light.  The Unholy.  The anti-intelligent.  The namesake of the Forbidden Thread.  A thread of sins finally washed away in the waters of this one - “Long may the Hot thread reign!” (Seriously, once this war is over there will likely be another right behind it, sadly).

[Harmon Rabb]

Quote

YEREVAN, Armenia — Belarus delivered advanced weapons to Armenia’s arch enemy even though both countries were supposedly allies in a Russian-led international defense pact, according to leaked documents seen by POLITICO. 

The cache of files sheds new light on Armenia’s decision this week to announce it will be leaving the military alliance, a dramatic turn that will weaken Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority with former Soviet nations.

Armenia is now on the verge of making a historic tilt toward the West, increasingly looking toward Europe and NATO for protection, after decades in which the former Soviet republic relied on Moscow. 

Armenia has been locked in a bitter conflict with Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus region, at the strategic junction between Asia and Europe, frequently boiling over into full-scale war. 

The decision by Belarus — a staunch ally of Russia — to supply advanced military hardware to Azerbaijan between 2018 and 2022, giving it the upper hand in a spate of wars with its long-standing rival, will have been regarded as a bitter betrayal by Armenia.

Both Belarus and Armenia are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a post-Soviet military alliance led by Moscow and formed in 2002. Theoretically, members are obliged to defend each other if attacked. Azerbaijan quit a precursor to the bloc in 1999. 

On Wednesday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced his government would begin the process of withdrawing from the bloc, claiming its members were “not fulfilling their contractual obligations, but are planning a war against us with Azerbaijan.”

Now, a cache of more than a dozen letters, diplomatic notes, bills of sale and export passports seen by POLITICO shows that Belarus actively aided Azerbaijan’s armed forces between 2018 and 2022, as tensions peaked with Armenia. The services offered included modernizing older artillery equipment and providing new gear used for electronic warfare and drone systems.

The documents include letters from the Belarusian state arms export agency to its own military-industrial firms relating to orders of state-of-the-art artillery targeting equipment for Azerbaijan as well as correspondence between the two states agreeing the purchase of Groza-S counter-drone mobile warfare stations for Azerbaijan’s armed forces. 

Neither the Azerbaijani nor Belarusian governments responded to requests for comment.

"With friends like these"

Artillery and drones were used extensively in combat between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces in recent years. This included during a 2020 war between the two sides over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies inside Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders but has been governed as an unrecognized state by its Armenian population since a brutal conflict that followed the fall of the Soviet Union. An Azerbaijani offensive last September ended the region’s de facto independence and sparked a mass exodus of its 100,000 inhabitants.

One of the diplomatic communications seen by POLITICO said that Belarusian enterprises were playing an active role “in the restoration of de-occupied territories of Azerbaijan, as well as the export of Belarusian goods and services” to the country.

Azerbaijani forces also launched incursions into the territory of the Republic of Armenia proper in September 2022, taking key strategic heights. Armenia called on the CSTO for support at the time, but later accused the bloc of failing to honor its commitments after it offered only to send a fact-finding delegation. Since then, Pashinyan, Armenia’s leader, has struck a deal to expand an EU monitoring mission on the tense border between the two former Soviet republics and invited U.S. troops for joint training drills.

Eduard Arakelyan, a military analyst at Yerevan’s Regional Center for Democracy and Security, verified that the leaked documents pertained to hardware used by Azerbaijan in recent wars, both in Nagorno-Karabakh and against the Republic of Armenia itself. 

“This equipment was used with devastating effect against Armenian troops and was provided by a country that is supposed to be an ally of Armenia,” he said. “In formal terms, it’s a complete breach of the CSTO alliance but, in practice, we’ve always known the bloc was more supportive of Azerbaijan.”

Despite on paper being an ally of Armenia, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has previously described Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as “our man” and said it would be “wrong” for the CSTO to oppose him. Aliyev, for his part, said in 2022 that "we have more friends in the CSTO than Armenia."

However, according to experts, Belarus — one of Moscow’s closest allies — was unlikely to be acting without the tacit support of the Kremlin itself. “This truly shows that with friends like Vladimir Putin, nobody needs enemies,” said Ivana Stradner, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“It’s ridiculous to think these transfers could have taken place without Moscow’s knowledge, and that Russia couldn’t have stopped them if it wanted to,” she added. “There is no such thing as loyalty when it comes to Moscow — it’s all about preserving their own security even if it’s at the expense of their own allies.”

Belarus summoned Armenia’s ambassador to a meeting at the foreign ministry on Thursday after Pashinyan aired his accusations the previous day. The envoy was later recalled to Yerevan, and Belarus’ ambassador returned to Minsk, as part of a severing of diplomatic relations between the two nations.

 

Source:The secret arms deal that cost Putin an ally (Politico.EU)

Russia's fugazi NATO takes another hit.

 

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

The UK will have a general election on July 4 and likely a change of government. Labour have just released their manifesto which includes ongoing support for Ukraine ( https://labour.org.uk/updates/stories/labours-defence-policy-how-we-will-provide-strong-national-defence-for-britain/ )

And really, eight posts in a row that are all OT? There are certain involuntary muscular movements which no amount of self-control can prevent.

 

Long standing board tradition.  In the 120th Thursday of a war we get 12 OT post in a row as a breather….and you just ruined it….now we have to start over.

Edited June 14 by The_Capt

[Offshoot]

With all the S300s and S400s popping off over the past couple of months, it has been hard to keep track. Here is a handy graphic that lists them

Legend:

17.04 Dzhankoi
30.04 Dzhankoi
15.05 Belbek
22.05 Donetsk obl.
02.06 Belgorod
10.06 Yevpatoria
10.06 Chornomorsk
10.06 Dzhankoi
12.06 Sevastopol
12.06 Belbek
12.06 Belbek

 

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Long standing board tradition.  In the 120th Thursday of a war we get 12 OT post in a row as a breather….and you just ruined it….now we have to start over.

It's Friday here so I take no responsibility.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Offshoot said:

It's Friday here so I take no responsibility.

The official motto of the European continent….

[danfrodo]

Stuff from my go to for UKR war stuff.  Some nasty orc hunting and bavovnas

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/13/2246364/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Panicked-Russians-line-up-to-get-dollars?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

On other news, I suspect Putin & friends will now say they are cutting off the west from Russian wealth, which will cripple western banks.  

 

[billbindc]

This seems quite on point to me: 

 

[Offshoot]

48 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The official motto of the European continent….

Bien sur, ist muy importante to take le weekend so les gens de accounts have mentes claras und add up tout les beans correctamente.

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

A really interesting read up on the S-500 system. 
 

 

That was an interesting read.  I know nothing about the S-500 and now I know something!

What I see in the above reporting is yet another example of Russia's long decline in its ability to keep up with the West.  A repeat of the 1980s in a way.  In this case the Russians saw that they had some pretty big gaps in their air defenses and sought to address it by modifying an existing system instead of investing in R&D to produce something better suited to the task.  Similar to the T-90 being a tricked out T-72 instead of a new design and even then reinvesting in the T-72 and T-80 fleets instead of fully embracing the T-90.  As with the tank program, the modernization and modifications kept the systems from being completely obsolete as compared to the Western equivalents.  Perhaps more importantly, it allowed Russia to build and field the number it needed to cover its huge frontage.

I think relocating the S-500s to Kerch is in part to get ready for ATACMS attacks, however I think it is also another example of Russia stripping away it's NATO specific defenses because Ukraine is a far more realistic threat.

Steve

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

The US security agreement with Ukraine:

The press release:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/06/13/fact-sheet-u-s-ukraine-bilateral-security-agreement/

The agreement:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/06/13/bilateral-security-agreement-between-the-united-states-of-america-and-ukraine/

Some pickings that are misleadingly quoted in media, especially about F-16 and Ukraine "winning".

In general, this paper states the current actions of United States and most importantly commits USA to this path for the next 10 years.

Of course this is not a treaty ratified by Congress but maybe the next best thing.

[FancyCat]

Quote

Tonight, Ukrainian drones (reportedly over 30) targeted Russia's Morozovsk airbase, home to a number of Russian Air Force Su-30/34/35 strike aircraft.  Numerous explosions could be heard near the base, with smoke and flames also spotted rising nearby.

 

[hcrof]

A russian view on the future of drones has some agreement with this thread but I think underestimates the impact of autonomous swarms in the future. 

 

[Letter from Prague]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 Not that one..the other one.  It is the name-that-steals-the-light.  The Unholy.  The anti-intelligent.  The namesake of the Forbidden Thread.  A thread of sins finally washed away in the waters of this one - “Long may the Hot thread reign!” (Seriously, once this war is over there will likely be another right behind it, sadly).

I'm looking forward to the "How hot is TheCapt gonna get (with pictures)" thread.

Edited June 14 by Letter from Prague
grammar?

[Carolus]

Long awaited repair and service centre finally opened in Ukraine, intended to make the maintenance of Dingo and Marder easier, likely also Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 (after more tooling). Next year, production of Lynx IFV will begin, and a small number of Lynx produced in other locations will be transferred to Ukraine this year.  

A contract about the total number of Lynx vehicles to be built for Ukraine is yet to be finished.

Lynx is supposed to be similar to the American Bradley IFV, but has not proven itself in active combat. 

- 8 passengers compartment

- 30mm autocannon with programmable ammo

- possible APS mount

- possible AT missile launcher mount

- modern optics and tracking

The only large customer for Lynx so far has been Hungary with 220 vehicles. 

Independent of the evolving drone  dominance and the vulnerabiliy of armor, it is probably better when Ukraine has more armored vehicles to ride around in rather than not having them. At least the Bradleys certainly proved their mettle in various scenarios, from evacuation of wounded to fire support. 

But with the vivid discussions here, it remains certainly a question of how much a country should invest in the procurement of heavy and expensive boxes of high-tech on tracks that get spotted from miles away.

Edited June 14 by Carolus

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

For the delectation of GPW/Ostfront grogs, 'Morozovskaya' ('Moroz') and Tatsinskaya ('Tazi') were the two forward airfields from which the Luftwaffe vainly attempted to sustain the Stalingrad pocket (Gumrak) before they were overrun in early 1943.

[FancyCat]

Quote

North Korea has sent containers to Russia that could hold nearly 5 million artillery shells and Putin will likely seek even more when he soon visits Pyongyang, South Korea’s defense minister said.

 

[Carolus]

15 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

Of the finest quality.

Really, the big worry should be tubes. We cannot hope for Russia to run out of shells. But the artillery systems are being squeezed hard. Unless we will see Chinese SPGs on the frontline, Russia will inevitably run into trouble next year (this-time-for-real tm)

Edited June 14 by Carolus

[hcrof]

Interesting perspective from a Russian that I think some people here might actually agree with!

 

[Offshoot]

Zelenskyy's office has released a long video promoting the upcoming peace summit and outlining their positions on a range of topics ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdTno1KgKIo ).

Quote

- How was the Ukrainian peace formula created?
- Why is the Peace Formula a comprehensive solution for sustainable and long-lasting peace not only in Ukraine, but throughout the world?
- What is the importance of each point of the Peace Formula?
- Why is Russia actively opposing the Peace Summit to be held on June 15-16 in Switzerland?

Considering where it is coming from and its purpose, it has some emotive background material throughout with the interviews providing more specific information.

The subtitles on the original are not the best but another channel has provided a good translation (the added chapter titles aren't in the original though)

 

[Heirloom_Tomato]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/putin-pledges-truce-if-ukraine-exits-occupied-areas-and-drops-nato-bid-likely-a-nonstarter-for-kyiv-1.6926626

Stop resisting, give us what we want, and we will leave you alone.

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Heirloom_Tomato said:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/putin-pledges-truce-if-ukraine-exits-occupied-areas-and-drops-nato-bid-likely-a-nonstarter-for-kyiv-1.6926626

Stop resisting, give us what we want, and we will leave you alone.

You forgot - “and leave yourselves entirely unprotected so we can come back and finish the job later.”

[Hapless]

Graphs!

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[FancyCat]

This is Putin's answer to the peace summit in Switzerland beginning today.

Quote

Putin just said he’d give an order to cease fire and begin peace talks if Ukraine accepts Russia’s new conditions.  Those conditions are maximalist and unrealistic: Ukraine would have to withdraw from all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Putin’s conditions show what a hardline position Russia would take at any peace talks. They include Ukraine giving up two major cities: Kherson, which Russia withdrew from in the fall of 2022, and Zaporizhzhia, under Ukrainian control throughout the war.

Fun fact: this was the first time Putin actually said Russia claims the city of Zaporizhzhia more than a year and a half after annexing the region. The Kremlin would not give a straight answer the entire time since on whether Russia wanted it or not while constantly shelling it

Other conditions from Putin to end the war:  – Ukraine pledges never to join NATO  – all western sanctions against Russia are scrapped

 

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

Interesting perspective from a Russian that I think some people here might actually agree with!

 

Apart from the Anglo-Saxons did it stuff, he seems to be saying that the way to counteract confusion (envy) in the hearts and minds of those stuck in New Russia between the Berlin Wall 2 and Old Russia is to improve the quality of life of all Russians through neo-industrialization, but without actually mentioning quality of life or the Russian people.

And for a futurist he appears to like Soviet era 5-year plans.

He's right about needing to diversify Russia's economy beyond raw materials though, so maybe they will spend 5 years making more guns and ammo.

Edited June 14 by Offshoot