Jump to content

How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

Recommended Posts

36 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

"One could get used to videos with such content, but there is one detail. This time the targets were in the Poltava Region, a record 140 kilometers from the front line for such cases."

It might be a record for Russians in Ukraine, but they'd have to multiply by 10 and then some to match what the Ukrainian Untermensch have done in Russia!

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Viko said:

while Russia seizes one settlement after another.

And what this gave to Russia in operative plan or strategical? 

Consolidated... Effectiveness... Superiority... Meat assaults + KABs, well this tactic really can work, but the spring of the meat is gradually exhausting.

 

Edited by Haiduk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sanctions expanded on Russia including IT sector, Moscow Stock Exchange will be halting trading of dollar. 

Quote

New @USTreasury sanctions on MOEX stop FX trading of the dollar. Transactions will be on the inter-exchange market, rates will become wider. Commissions for storing currency will rise. It will become more difficult and expensive to work with currency in Russia. But not impossible

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

And what this gave to Russia in operative plan or strategical? 

Consolidated... Effectiveness... Superiority... Meat assaults + KABs, well this tactic really can work, but the spring of the meat is gradually exhausting.

 

Russia is starting to Recruit FEMALE prisoners for combat roles. 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/world/europe/russia-women-inmates-ukraine.html?searchResultPosition=1

Tens of thousands of male convicts have been freed to fight in Ukraine. It is not clear if a small contingent of female volunteers released from a prison portends wider use of female soldiers.

 

Quote

The military recruiters who visited their prison near St. Petersburg last year offered inmates contracts for serving as snipers, combat medics and frontline radio operators for one year, a significant departure from the largely auxiliary positions occupied by most Russian servicewomen. 

I wonder how many Russian snipers survive a year at front...?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

progress is continuing on how to best take advantage of frozen Russian sovereign assets stored in the West to support Ukraine.

Quote

Officials on both sides of the Atlantic have for months been discussing how to use the profits generated by the about $280 billion in frozen Russian central bank funds, most of which lies immobilized in Europe.

The proceeds from the frozen assets are estimated to be worth between €3 billion to €5 billion annually. The EU has already agreed to provide Ukraine the profits twice a year, but the US has been urging G-7 allies to find ways to frontload the support in order to provide Kyiv with more immediate support.

Complex issues that will need to be ironed out include figuring out how to structure any loans to Ukraine, how risks are shared among allies and ensuring that the assets remain frozen for years.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-12/g-7-leaders-to-agree-to-tap-frozen-russian-assets-france-says

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, chrisl said:

And probably most of that money gets spent in western Europe to buy equipment to ship to Ukraine to replace destroyed stuff.

Yes, of course. Where else would they buy that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/11/2024 at 10:19 AM, billbindc said:

Interesting. My take on Vietnam is quite different. Yes, there is corruption but the rules and rates are so widely understood and agreed upon that they are simply a routine cost of doing business. Breaking them, showing too much greed or simply a lack of grace is an excellent way to go to jail. Call it 'grey' corruption if you will but it isn't the wild West either. 

Per Ukraine and in general, my over all observation is that complaints about bureaucracy are really about the worst 10% of it. Yes, it's widespread but Ukraine isn't doing to Russia what it's doing because it is deeply debilitated by corrupt practice. 

 

I think we also need to consider that in many cultures, the “pay to play” is so ingrained in the cultural psyche for literally millennium that the people you are dealing with see nothing wrong with it, and blame the “ridged western false morals” for the issue. I worked in a Bureaucracy for 20 years, but always tried to find a way I could do what the applicant or Engineer wanted, but still stay within the regulations. Most bureaucrats are just too lazy or risk adverse to do that.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, omae2 said:

How does the russians keep supplying meat for their assaults? I mean even if i am skeptic about the more than 500k losses, the initial forces were 280k of the russians, 80k for wagner, 300k mobilized in 23 or 22 i cant recall. Around 660k body, plus some other units from different branch of the russian armed forces. This should be already running low on mans, yet contrary to my unsupported assumption they did not order mobilization back in March. So how they getting those idiots that sit on top of their vehicles and getting butchered every day?

Reportedly Russia has ~30,000 volunteers each month so Putin considers mobilization unnecessary (Putin stated this at the recent St Petersburg economic forum). As to why they volunteer, perhaps because of the money and a diet of Russian propaganda which gives them little understanding of what is really going on in Ukraine.

Russia had a deep well of manpower and how much is still in it is not clear. The situation is not without nuance, however ( https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-8-2024 )

Quote

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted on June 8 that a fraction of the reported 30,000 personnel that Russia generates each month arrives at the front as combat force replacements and reinforcements and that Russian force generation efforts have allowed Russian forces to establish only limited operational and strategic reserves...

Russian forces have leveraged their possession of the theater-wide initiative to determine a tempo of fighting in Ukraine in recent months that appears to generate casualties roughly equal to or slightly less than the rate of newly generated forces.[11] This careful balance between Russian casualties and newly generated forces requires that Russian forces not significantly intensify offensive operations for a prolonged period of time, however. This balance becomes even more narrow when considering losses and new force generation for just Russian combat personnel.[12] ISW has observed a "pulsing" of Russian offensive operations along the front in recent months, wherein Russian forces alternate between intensified assaults and a lower operational tempo to replenish losses.[13] The availability of new combat personnel is likely one of several determining factors for when Russian forces decide to alternate between intensified offensive operations.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, omae2 said:

How does the russians keep supplying meat for their assaults? I mean even if i am skeptic about the more than 500k losses, the initial forces were 280k of the russians, 80k for wagner, 300k mobilized in 23 or 22 i cant recall. Around 660k body, plus some other units from different branch of the russian armed forces. This should be already running low on mans, yet contrary to my unsupported assumption they did not order mobilization back in March. So how they getting those idiots that sit on top of their vehicles and getting butchered every day?

From what I've observed it's pretty simple.  To many in russia, especially from the dirt poor regions, the money being offered to enlist is incredibly generous.  Most of them will have little idea what really happens at the front - all local media and the online content they follow will be re-enforcing the RU view of the conflict.  They sign up for a year, get a big wad of cash and think they're off to join a strong and victorious army.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Viko said:

This is clear evidence of the superiority of Russians over Ukrainians. At a critical moment, the Russians were able to consolidate and increase the effectiveness of their armed forces. Over the past six months, Ukraine has been unable to recapture a single settlement. while Russia seizes one settlement after another. And Ukraine only promotes its loser generals for each new failure.

Time for me to use my “ignore button.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

Russia is starting to Recruit FEMALE prisoners for combat roles. 

I wonder how many Russian snipers survive a year at front...?

I wonder how many of these women will even be able to walk after the males get done with them. I foresee a huge increase of “friendly fire” incidents from women protecting themselves.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

What I can’t figure is why these guys keep coming back. I mean c’mon, we are at 5.6M views (which has to be a record) but this is a niche little forum - and who under 40 even knows what a forum is?  We are on the outer rim of social media hanging on “A Little Wargame Shop That Could”.  So why anyone would want to keep coming back to try and pull whatever this was just doesn’t make sense.  This is the weirdest Russian IO ever, or maybe just a member of the Russian 5th column doing what he thinks the motherland wants him too.

What is cool about this topic is we are basically untouchable by paid Russian trolls/bots here...We are like the Untouchables starring Kevin Costner. 😀

We are a group of a dozen or so well informed guys who post here on a regular basis. By this point we know each other's posting styles and online personalities quite well.

When some new account comes in pushing pro-Russian propaganda it is ridiculously easy to spot. It is not like on Twitter, Reddit, YouTube or some online newspaper comment section where they and can use fake accounts to upvote their nonsense, and blend in easier because of how many users are on those platforms.

UntouchablesThe.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

We are a group of a dozen or so well informed guys who post here on a regular basis. By this point we know each other's posting styles and online personalities quite well.

And a bunch of stooges!  Don't leave us out!  hey Moe, it's a water let'er outer!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe the argument laid out in the article is overstating it, but there's been quite a rash of exploding air defense batteries in Crimea, it is interesting how those in Crimea seem to disappear more than other parts of the Russian occupied zones. Article suggests that Ukraine is gradually setting the stage to strangling Crimea and enable F-16s to be used to target Crimea. 

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-is-making-the-russian-occupation-of-crimea-untenable/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

Cargo turnover of Ukraine’s seaports in May 2024 amounted to 8.2 million tonnes, which is nearly twice the May figure of last year.

It is noted that as of the results of May 2024, Ukrainian seaports handled 8.265 million tonnes of cargo, which is almost twice the similar figure for 2023.

Cargo turnover through the Ukrainian corridor in May amounted to 6.7 million tonnes, including 4.5 million tonnes of Ukrainian agrarian products.

The press office adds that the leaders in cargo turnover are grain and ore cargoes – 5.3 million tonnes and 1.5 million tonnes respectively, compared to 3.5 million tonnes of grain and 241,000 tonnes of ore in 2023.

In total, since the beginning of 2024, Ukrainian ports have handled almost 46 million tonnes, compared to 26.6 million tonnes in 2023.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/12/7460431/

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

What is cool about this topic is we are basically untouchable by paid Russian trolls/bots here...We are like the Untouchables starring Kevin Costner. 😀

We are a group of a dozen or so well informed guys who post here on a regular basis. By this point we know each other's posting styles and online personalities quite well.

When some new account comes in pushing pro-Russian propaganda it is ridiculously easy to spot. It is not like on Twitter, Reddit, YouTube or some online newspaper comment section where they and can use fake accounts to upvote their nonsense, and blend in easier because of how many users are on those platforms.

UntouchablesThe.jpg

A dozen or so posters with 5.6 million views.  But your point on “small community” is a good one, never thought of that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://www.twz.com/news-features/s-500-prometheus-air-defense-system-now-protecting-russias-kerch-bridge-ukraines-spy-boss

 

Well let's see how this fairs...

 

Quote

Russia has moved one of its S-500 air defense systems, the most advanced it has, to the occupied Crimean Peninsula to protect the Kerch Bridge, Ukraine’s spy boss said Wednesday. If true, it would mark the first known time it has been fielded and would provide Russia with significant air defense capabilities, especially against ballistic missiles.

 

Edited by Holien
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

$50 billion looks like a done deal. And now there is a dollar run on Moscow banks in response to the foreign exchange sanctions. 

The run on the banks should be fun to watch.  Russia has managed to hold their banking system together throughout the 2014 and 2022 shocks, but the last time this came up I remember several economists speculating that they had pushed and pulled various control levers about as much as they could.  I think we're going to find out one way or another if that's the case.

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Holien said:

Well we know what Budanov is doing for the rest of the month

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The reasons not to do this all come back to hoping the world could be reset pre Feb 2022. As soon as the blob admitted to itself this wasn't happening, there was less than zero reason not to do it. Now lets see if various governments can follow through with all the thingsthey need to do with their OWN money to deal with the world as it is.

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

$50 billion looks like a done deal. And now there is a dollar run on Moscow banks in response to the foreign exchange sanctions. 

See above, people are are finally pulling some the levers that -Edit:cannot- casually be undone.

Edited by dan/california
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some articles on the impact of yesterday's sanctions:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rouble-swings-opaque-trading-territory-after-new-us-sanctions-2024-06-13/

And another one with more layperson information in it:

https://www.newsweek.com/moscow-stock-exchange-trade-halted-ruble-collapse-sanctions-1912161

The gist of this, from what I can tell, is that there is no longer an official, centralized exchange of USD to Rubles. Individual banks, however, are able to continue exchanging, but with their own rates.  The Newsweek article cites that one bank has set up its own exchange rate of buying USD at 50 Rubles (about 1/2 what the rate was last week) and selling them for 200!

I have no idea what sort of impact this will have on the Russian economy, but someone is going to come out worse for it.

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...