How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

This was building materials mall. Reportedly up to 200 people could be inside during the srtike. Russians, of course, claimed they hit "ammunition storage". Rescue operation is ongoing

 

Edited May 25 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So after two years of this thing, you have not noticed that the Russians tend to up-play things they do not care about and stay silent of stuff they do?  An apartment building gets taken down and it is all over the RUS-IO sphere but things that actually hurt - like deep strikes on oil infra - they really don’t make a fuss. Ya think maybe it is a bit of a ploy?

O.o

A apartment building gets played up cause Russia can accuse Ukraine of attacking civilians, I fail to see what Russia gains from not playing it up. Oil industry being targeted is not played up cause Russia does not need to publicize that they are doing damage to the Russian export and domestic market and to ensure domestically no one is spooked.

I fail to see how Russia, whom has been pointedly using the nuclear card widely in the West to urge cutting aid to Ukraine, would not, if it was hitting red lines, be screaming about it across the world that Ukraine is being reckless.

I would suggest it's not a red line. Same as the other red lines that once were mentioned by Russia. Strikes on Crimea. Strikes inside Russia. Once they actually occurred, it's been downplaying that it's a big deal and suddenly the red line isn't so red. Now sure maybe Russia is very quietly saying stuff to the West but let's be frank we ain't gonna hear about that.

[Haiduk]

GBU-39 bomb reportedly was adopted for UKR Soviet-time fighters

 

[Haiduk]

FPVs hunting T-90M and destroy it near Avdiivka

 

[FancyCat]

It's interesting that this is happening now. Internal turmoil in the army, at a important point in the conflict, a sign of reform for the long term or not? Popov was arrested, he had made complaints to Shoigu and was loudly criticizing the state of the war, if reform was the intent, why would they arrest him?

Quote

EXCLUSIVE: The arrests of five top Russian military officers are likely just the first of dozens who will be jailed in a purge carried out by the FSB, government officials and sources close to the Kremlin and the Defense Ministry told MT.

 

[sburke]

Interesting if true, another sign of troop shortage issue?

Russia's pulling combat forces from another continent to fuel its latest offensive push in Ukraine, Western intel says (msn.com)

Russia has pulled combat forces from Africa to support its new offensive in the Kharkiv region.
Africa Corps units recently deployed to fight with other Russian forces, Western intelligence said.
The Russian Africa Corps was created last year and consists of former Wagner Group mercenaries. 

Russia has moved some combat forces from Africa to help support its latest offensive efforts in northeastern Ukraine, according to a new Western intelligence assessment.

Over the past week, Moscow has deployed units from its Africa Corps to fight around Vovchansk, a small city in Ukraine's Kharkiv region that has been at the center of intense fighting in recent days, the UK defense ministry wrote in a Friday intelligence update.
The Russian defense ministry created the Africa Corps last year as a way to expand its footprint on the continent and also in the Middle East. The military formation, which has the same name as a World War II Nazi unit, consists of more than 2,000 regular soldiers, officers, and mercenaries — including many who once served in the notorious Wagner Group.

In Ukraine, Africa Corps units have been deployed alongside regular Russian military forces and Storm-Z penal units made up of convicts and troops with disciplinary charges to support the ongoing Kharkiv offensive, Britain's defense ministry noted.

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

Interesting if true, another sign of troop shortage issue?

True. But "western intel" (ISW?) took this info from Russian TG

Edited May 25 by Haiduk

[Eddy]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

ISW?

British Ministry of Defence yesterday 

[Haiduk]

Russia moved two newest pr.22800 Karakurt-class missile corvettes from Black Sea to Caspian Sea. These two corvettes both under final stage of constructiojn and up to the end of 2024 should be adopt to service. Two Karakurts already destroyed/badly damaged. Only one also under construction remained in Black Sea

 

[Haiduk]

Rural house turned out into mass grave for Russian infantry after "fat drone" strike

 

[Haiduk]

Aftermath of next "escalalation-level" strike. First sattelite images appeared of aftermath of four ATACMS strike on GLONASS control center in Semidvorye settlement NE from Alushta, southern Crimea. This happened on 24th of May, I posted the video. Maybe better quality images will appear soon

 

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I dunno and am getting increasingly averse to hitting the “false flag” easy button every time Ukraine might have made an error.  ISW seems confident it was UA:

“Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a drone strike against a Russian early warning radar system in Krasnodar Krai, Russia on the morning of May 23. Ukrainian and Russian sources posted photos of the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone strike on a Voronezh-DM ground-based early warning radar station on the territory of the Russian 818th Radio Technical Center near Armavir, Krasnodar Krai.[52] The sources noted that Russian forces used the radar to detect intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) at a range of up to 6,000 kilometers.[53] Radio Svoboda published satellite imagery from shortly after the strike showing damage to the radar system.[54]”

 

ISWs sources are better than mine, if they they say the Ukrainians did it I accept that.

 

[FancyCat]

Quote

This is quite possibly one of the most significant upgrades Ukrainian Fulcrums have received. SDBs are capable, plentiful, and more importantly, cheap.  Flyaway cost for an SDB is $36,000. That’s less than a quarter of a GMLRS rocket, it’s roughly 10% of a M982 Excalibur.

Ukrainian fighters can now salvo off up to 8 SDBs at Russian targets from dozens of miles behind the front. As Russian long range air defenses continue to be attrited by ATACMS strikes, the ability to conduct the SDB attacks will only grow.

Ukrainian fighters can now salvo off up to 8 SDBs at Russian targets from dozens of miles behind the front. As Russian long range air defenses continue to be attrited by ATACMS strikes, the ability to conduct the SDB attacks will only grow.

I can't find the source but ground based solutions have been getting intercepted by Russia or taken down by EW but it's not affecting these air launched munitions. Places more emphasis on taking down the Russian radar network if air based solutions are required to effectively attack long range.

Found it!

Quote

"One U.S. weapon used by aircraft, the GBU-39 small-diameter bomb, has proved resilient to jamming, according to the confidential documents. Nearly 90 percent of dropped bombs struck their target...But the modified...GLSDB, proved ineffective compared to those launched from airplanes, Ukrainian officials said."

 

[FancyCat]

16 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So we don’t care if the Russians are using them as dual use because…and try to follow me here…Ukraine is important, but it is not that important.  They will likely let Kyiv fall first. 

I understand that its not forgone that Ukraine should be reabsorbed into Russia, I mean certainly part of your lifetime included its independence occurring, but I think your understating the positions the West have staked out on Ukraine. The fall of Ukraine will strike absolute blows into NATO, the EU and the Western bloc. A lot of focus on Russia's internal dynamics in the event of their defeat, let me be clear, the fall of Ukraine is a defeat for the West. A lot of talk on poor Russia, not a lot of talk for the ramifications for the West for a nation that yearns for NATO membership, EU membership, and has shown itself to be capable of fightimg in a straight up full scale conflict with what is still considered one of the top dogs military-wise in the world to fall completely despite EU and NATO support.

A ton of ramifications including tons of internal dynamics between the bloc's eastern members and Western members. Macron's warnings about Russian forces approaching Kiyv and Odessa should be considered as they are, no less consideration of Putin's words. The words of our eastern partners like Finland, the Baltics, Poland are just as essential as those of France, Canada, Germany and the UK. So sure, maybe some policy makers might be okay with Kiyv falling but there are certainly policymakers in Poland, the Baltics, Finland and Sweden that would disagree and I would think it the height of folly for those to be disregarded anymore than disregarding Turkish policymakers or Russian policymakers especially when dealing with nuclear risks.

A lot of "Kiyv isn't important" coming from across the Atlantic while closer Lithuania is prepared to deploy their personnel to train in Ukraine. Considering the very obvious focus of Putin of dividing the NATO alliance, and the obvious risks of what could be considered Russian total victory, it probably should not be waved off the concerns of the Eastern bloc members. Especially when managing escalation and mistakes. Especially as Poland becomes probably the largest land based army in Europe. Especially as the incoming election heralds uncertainty to U.S commitment to NATO.

[FancyCat]

17 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Stamp your feet and call the US and NATO “cowards” but there is an entire defence and security world out there that no one under the age of 40 really understands.  It faded into the background over the last 30 years, to the point an entire generation of policy makers, diplomats and academics have grown up thinking that it was all over.

I was not aware all policymakers in Finland, Sweden, the Baltics, Poland etc were all under-40. Maybe you forgot they were part of NATO. Understandable. But maybe we should consider them when declaring Kiyv lost when we mull over the original Russian demand for calling off the 2022 invasion of Ukraine was the withdrawal of NATO forces behind the 1997 limits of NATO.

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

It's interesting that this is happening now. Internal turmoil in the army, at a important point in the conflict, a sign of reform for the long term or not? Popov was arrested, he had made complaints to Shoigu and was loudly criticizing the state of the war, if reform was the intent, why would they arrest him?

 

This is getting to be really interesting.  Stalin-level purges, not just firing them but putting them on trial.  What the heck is going on?  And what will it mean for the war I wonder??

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

I understand that its not forgone that Ukraine should be reabsorbed into Russia, I mean certainly part of your lifetime included its independence occurring, but I think your understating the positions the West have staked out on Ukraine. The fall of Ukraine will strike absolute blows into NATO, the EU and the Western bloc. A lot of focus on Russia's internal dynamics in the event of their defeat, let me be clear, the fall of Ukraine is a defeat for the West. A lot of talk on poor Russia, not a lot of talk for the ramifications for the West for a nation that yearns for NATO membership, EU membership, and has shown itself to be capable of fightimg in a straight up full scale conflict with what is still considered one of the top dogs military-wise in the world to fall completely despite EU and NATO support.

A ton of ramifications including tons of internal dynamics between the bloc's eastern members and Western members. Macron's warnings about Russian forces approaching Kiyv and Odessa should be considered as they are, no less consideration of Putin's words. The words of our eastern partners like Finland, the Baltics, Poland are just as essential as those of France, Canada, Germany and the UK. So sure, maybe some policy makers might be okay with Kiyv falling but there are certainly policymakers in Poland, the Baltics, Finland and Sweden that would disagree and I would think it the height of folly for those to be disregarded anymore than disregarding Turkish policymakers or Russian policymakers especially when dealing with nuclear risks.

A lot of "Kiyv isn't important" coming from across the Atlantic while closer Lithuania is prepared to deploy their personnel to train in Ukraine. Considering the very obvious focus of Putin of dividing the NATO alliance, and the obvious risks of what could be considered Russian total victory, it probably should not be waved off the concerns of the Eastern bloc members. Especially when managing escalation and mistakes. Especially as Poland becomes probably the largest land based army in Europe. Especially as the incoming election heralds uncertainty to U.S commitment to NATO.

So your theory is that if Kyiv falls Poland, the Baltics, Finland and Sweden are going to do what?  Switch sides?  If we lose in Ukraine it is definitely a western defeat a la Vietnam (but no where near as personal) but we can live with it.  There hasn’t been a single signal out of any NATO nation that the alliance is in doubt if Ukraine falls.  In fact I suspect it will be quite the opposite, we will likely double down on the one mechanism that keeps Russia in check.  In fact the entire theory of an Eastern Europe schism in light of a Russian victory doesn’t make any sense but you keep rolling it out like Armageddon.  Further, you seem to imply that it is an outcome so bad that we should be willing to start playing fast and lose with the nuclear equation.  

You do realize that you are promoting reckless courses of action that if they slide are going to hurt Ukrainians first?  If Russia either loses control, has a misunderstanding or simply says “nope” Ukraine is very likely going to the demonstration venue.

As usual you are going off without a shred of proof behind your own opinion.  Show me one declaration from any of the states you mention that they are willing to start taking the risks you are advocating or that Ukraine is the central issue in their continued partnership.  FFS we are putting a Bde in Latvia, I am sure of Ukraine falls the first thing then Latvians are going to do is tell us to leave.

You are over inflating a Ukrainian loss to the point that WW3 makes perfect sense. This is not good analysis, it is hyperbolic propaganda.  Of course we do not want Ukraine to lose.  We have spent billions trying to stop that from happening.  But we also do not want an uncontrolled escalation…and my proof is self-evident by the lack of western air or land power direct involvement in this war.  Ukraine is simply not worth this whole thing expanding or escalating into a broader regional or global conflict - we already did that sort of thing in 1914 and do not need a repeat.

[ASL Veteran]

 

[Ultradave]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

A lot of talk on poor Russia, not a lot of talk for the ramifications for the West for a nation that yearns for NATO membership, EU membership, and has shown itself to be capable of fightimg in a straight up full scale conflict with what is still considered one of the top dogs military-wise in the world to fall completely despite EU and NATO support.

Not a lot of talk other than the constant argument in government to support Ukraine for the last 2+ years.  Even Speaker Johnson saw the light after receiving an intelligence briefing. The only exception has been a very small but vocal minority. 
 

Thats been THE argument for support. 

[ASL Veteran]

Just to lighten things up a bit

 

[JonS]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

ISWs sources are better than mine, if they they say the Ukrainians did it I accept that.

You have sources?

[JonS]

4 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Found it!

It's interesting that there's such an in-flight performance delta that seems to be based on the launch platform. I'd have thought that once they got to the glide portion their performance would be identical.

Edited May 25 by JonS

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, JonS said:

You have sources?

[JonS]

4 hours ago, FancyCat said:

The fall of Ukraine will strike absolute blows into NATO, the EU and the Western bloc. ... let me be clear, the fall of Ukraine is a defeat for the West.

This is true, but those blows and that defeat are survivable and recoverable in ways that a strategic nuclear exchange is not.

See WWII for example - the UK did survive and ultimately recover from the loss of Poland, France, Singapore, Malaysia, Burma even though it wasn't all happiness and roses, and the UK was permanently altered after the war.

Edited May 25 by JonS

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-24-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Western media continues to report that Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in a negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine, although Kremlin rhetoric and Russian military actions illustrate that Putin remains uninterested in meaningful negotiations and any settlement that would prevent him from pursuing the destruction of an independent Ukrainian state.
• Russian sources that have spoken to Western media have also offered mutually contradictory characterizations of Putin's stance on negotiations.
• These Russian sources notably highlighted territorial concessions as part of Putin's alleged envisioned ceasefire but have sparsely addressed the wider strategic objectives of Putin's war in Ukraine.
• A ceasefire does not preclude Russia from resuming its offensive campaign to destroy Ukrainian statehood, and Russia would use any ceasefire to prepare for future offensive operations within Ukraine.
• Russia is currently preparing for the possibility of a conventional war with NATO, and the Kremlin will likely view anything short of Ukrainian capitulation as an existential threat to Russia's ability to fight such a war.
• The Kremlin will continue to feign interest in negotiations at critical moments in the war to influence Western decision-making on support for Ukraine and to continue efforts to extract preemptive concessions from the West.
• Putin directly rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's legitimacy as president on May 24, the latest in a series of efforts to dismiss Zelensky's authority to engage in or reject negotiations with Russia and undermine Ukrainians' trust in Zelensky.
• Unnamed Russian government officials and sources within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin told the independent Russian outlet The Moscow Times that the ongoing effort to remove senior Russian defense officials and uniformed commanding officers will likely continue in the coming weeks and months.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a series of successful missile strikes against military targets in Russian-occupied Ukraine on May 23 and 24.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a drone strike against a Russian early warning radar system in Krasnodar Krai, Russia on the morning of May 23.
• The Ukrainian military command continues to address Ukraine's manpower challenges.
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced a military assistance package worth $275 million on May 24 to help Ukrainian forces repel Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated on May 24 that NATO member states should consider lifting restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Svatove, Kreminna, and Donetsk City.
• The Financial Times (FT) reported on May 23 that Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko stated that Russia recruited more than 385,000 military personnel in 2023.

 

 

Quote

A source close to the Kremlin claimed that these arrests indicate that the FSB is "triumphing" over the Russian MoD and that the arrests are part of the FSB's effort to convince Putin that the Russian MoD is responsible for the failures during the initial weeks of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The Kremlin has undoubtedly debated which department deserves the blame for the Russian military's initial failures in Ukraine, but it is unclear if Putin remains interested in assigning blame for the initial months of the invasion over two years later.[43] Moreover, the FSB is one of the most logical arms of the Russian government to conduct these arrests as it is tasked with addressing domestic security issues, counterintelligence, economic crimes, and surveillance of the Russian military.[44] While Putin has been known to balance his favor between siloviki (Russian strongmen with political influence) and encourage infighting, it is at least as likely that the FSB's involvement in the ongoing removal of high-ranking Russian defense officials and military officers is due to its mandated responsibilities as guided by the Kremlin and not as part of a wider FSB conspiracy to gain control of or divert blame to the MoD.[45]

 

Putin seems to have decided to put the FSB 100% in charge of the war, and more or less everything else. Also ISW is PROFOUNDLY unimpressed with Putin' latest ceasefire feelers.

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