How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

People....STOP GOING TO RUSSIA. For crying out loud...

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FIRST ON NBC: A U.S. soldier was detained in Russia over the weekend according to three U.S. officials. He has been stationed in Korea and traveled to Russia on his own. He is accused of stealing but it’s not clear if those charges are legit or not. Developing …

 

[dan/california]

40 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

People....STOP GOING TO RUSSIA. For crying out loud...

 

What he said! STOP going to Russia. for bleeps sake!

[dan/california]

 

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-5-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Russian military reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast as part of a larger ongoing Russian effort to gather an operationally significant force for a possible future Russian offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv City.
• The Russian military is reportedly preparing and forming the Northern Grouping of Forces from elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) to primarily operate in the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction.
• US officials continue to signal their support for new Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in 2025, although ISW continues to assess that Ukraine should contest the theater-wide initiative as soon as possible because ceding the theater-wide initiative to Russia for the entirety of 2024 will present Russia with several benefits.
• European intelligence agencies reportedly warned their governments that Russia is planning to conduct “violent acts of sabotage” across Europe as part of a “more aggressive and concerted effort” against the West.
• The Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP) seized on the Orthodox Easter holiday on May 5 to further its efforts to garner domestic support for the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Robotyne.
• Bureaucratic issues continue to constrain frontline Russian units’ ability to conduct strikes on Ukrainian targets.

 

 

Worth the time as always.

•  

[dan/california]

8 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

 

I don't like to call Russians "Orks", but this is straight out of Warhammer 40K

Now that they have had to make their tanks practically blind, and VERY slow, it is time for UGVs to make a real appearance. 

 

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Explosively_formed_penetrator#/media/File:Mina-MPB.jpg

Put a set of treads under this thing, and send it out to say hello.

 

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_Cost_Autonomous_Attack_System

The Low Cost Autonomous Attack System (LOCAAS) was a loitering attack munition developed for the United States Air Force (USAF). In 1998 the USAF and U.S. Army Lockheed Martin began to examine the feasibility of a small, affordable cruise missile weapon for use against armoured and unarmoured vehicles, materiel and personnel, and if so develop a demonstration program.^[1] The program cost approximately $150,000,000; the cost per unit was calculated to be $30,000 based on a production of 12,000 units before cancellation.

After being launched from a weapon platform, it is guided by GPS/INS to the target general area, where it can loiter. A laser radar (LIDAR or LADAR) illuminates the targets, determines their range, and matches their 3-D geometry with pre-loaded signatures. The LOCAAS system then selects the highest priority target and selects the warhead's mode for the best effect.^[2]

The LOCAAS program was cancelled.

 

Someone is going to have to work VERY hard to explain to me why this hasn't been revived as a max priority project for Ukraine. I mean 90% or better of the engineering is just sitting in drawer somewhere.

[cesmonkey]

 

[dan/california]

Who would have thought trying to press gang Ukrainian prisoners was a bad idea...?

[Fenris]

4 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

Footage from inside the RU chopper firing on the SAM drone

 

[Fenris]

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Per VOA, the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant is now producing more than 36,000 155mm shells per month. 

Before 2022, the plant produced roughly 7,000 shells per month; the Army aimed to hit 35,000 shells per month by 2027. SCAAP beat that goal by over two years.

And

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2S7 Pion 203mm self propelled cannon in Ukrainian service, seen here firing somewhere on the southern front.  

There’s been a fair amount of new Ukrainian 2S7 content released over the past week, after a 6+ month long drought.

Quite possible that Ukraine has received a new supply of 8 inch shells.

Seen here, 2S7 footage from the 43rd Artillery Brigade.

 

 

Edited May 7 by Fenris

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Fenris said:

And

 

 

It is truly excellent that the Scranton plat is up to 36,000 shells a month, and I am sure there are people there who have worked seven days a week for a year to make that happen. But Ukraine needs 36,000 shells a WEEK, a lot of work yet to do.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

 

I had wondered if some of the statements of how long things were going to take was done to fool Khan;  "Hours may seem like days".  Or in this case, "months may seem like years".

It would make sense to not go public with exactly how fast production could be ramped up.

Steve

[Carolus]

On 5/5/2024 at 11:38 AM, Haiduk said:

Interesting information about western 155 mm shells lethality. Insufficient lethality.

 

 

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I had wondered if some of the statements of how long things were going to take was done to fool Khan;  "Hours may seem like days".  Or in this case, "months may seem like years".

It would make sense to not go public with exactly how fast production could be ramped up.

Steve

These will be M795. If the complaints about the fragmentation pattern of the M107 are not just yarn, I hope the M795 will show more satisfactory results for the troops.

[Kraft]

Two times olympic weightlifting champion Oleksandr Pielieshenko gave his life while in service of the 47th Brigade

[Carolus]

"A little more sprinkles on the topping, please."

Looks like some shells have made their convoluted way through the Ukrainian logistical system to the frontline.

 

 

[Ultradave]

20 hours ago, billbindc said:

The was a moment there in 2022 when the possibility came closer than usual but I'd argue still not very close. This is much less significant.

Russia using the provision of depleted uranium ammunition as a reason for their tactical nuclear weapons drills in response is quite the stretch, eh? 

Dave

[Carolus]

This poster claims that with the current loss rate, Russia will be out of heavy artillery within the first half of 2025 based on counting satellite photos of Russian depots. Production rate is miniscule compared to losses. 152mm will run out before 122mm, SPGs will run out after towed guns do.

Mentions it is likely they will run out of usable tubes before that.

 

 

Edited May 7 by Carolus

[danfrodo]

wanna weaken Putin even more?  how about this kinda stuff?  

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/07/climate/battery-electricity-solar-california-texas.html

California getting huge amount of its energy via solar in april and adding batteries to the mix starts to provide that ~free energy on-demand.  Imagine Putin w/o the petro money spigot.  The more big energy users that move away from fossil fuels, the smaller the market, the less money to the monster.

For more good fun, imagine the loathsome saudis w/o petro money.  They would have nothing but dry, worthless sand.  

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

This poster claims that with the current loss rate, Russia will be out of heavy artillery within the first half of 2025 based on counting satellite photos of Russian depots. Production rate is miniscule compared to losses. 152mm will run out before 122mm, SPGs will run out after towed guns do.

Mentions it is likely they will run out of usable tubes before that.

 

 

We've been waiting for Russia to run out of SOMETHING critical, but they've managed to keep the supply going (even if compromising quality).  Obviously quite frustrating for us who have hoped for a quicker result.

As has been said before, many times, Russia is facing a large number of critical points of failure to its war.  All of them have time as a significant factor, in that the longer the war goes on the closer they come to any one specific point of failure.  Ultimately they can only delay the inevitable, not put it off completely *UNLESS* the war ends.  Some things will have their clocks continue to count down even when the war stops.

Russia has already got itself into artillery troubles several times in this war and it mattered.  The first time was in 2022 when the readily available stocks of 122mm artillery and ammunition dried up for the DPR/LPR forces.  It wasn't that Russia didn't have them, they just didn't have them ready to go because they didn't expect a long war.  The second time was last year before they got shipments of foreign munitions to make up for shortages of their own stocks and the inability of new production to keep up with demand.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Two SBU colonels were arrested today for allegedly plotting with the FSB to kill Zelensky and Budanov:

https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-russia-assassination-plot-arrest-ukrainian-state-security-department/

Steve

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

We've been waiting for Russia to run out of SOMETHING critical, but they've managed to keep the supply going (even if compromising quality).  Obviously quite frustrating for us who have hoped for a quicker result.

As has been said before, many times, Russia is facing a large number of critical points of failure to its war.  All of them have time as a significant factor, in that the longer the war goes on the closer they come to any one specific point of failure.  Ultimately they can only delay the inevitable, not put it off completely *UNLESS* the war ends.  Some things will have their clocks continue to count down even when the war stops.

And the problem is, the war cannot end from a Russian regime perspective.

Not while the UA still stands. 

Imagine if Russia actually runs out of something critical and the UA is still in some sort of combat-ready state (with Western supply). There will be a push attempt, unless there is a radical change in political will from the Ukrainian population.

Of course, just like Ukraine, Russia will try to make up for less amounts of artillery by substituting with FPV drones and Lancets.

Which is why in 2024/5 we will have to see where anti-drone measures are going. UA needs to project a drone-free bubble ahead of every movement.

Edited May 7 by Carolus

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, Carolus said:

And the problem is, the war cannot end from a Russian regime perspective.

Not while the UA still stands. 

Imagine if Russia actually runs out of something critical and the UA is still in some sort of combat-ready state (with Western supply). There will be a push attempt, unless there is a radical change in political will from the Ukrainian population.

Of course, just like Ukraine, Russia will try to make up for less amounts of artillery by substituting with FPV drones and Lancets.

Which is why in 2024/5 we will have to see where anti-drone measures are going. UA needs to project a drone-free bubble ahead of every movement.

I agree that Russia will try to compensate for whatever fails by relying upon something else.  The more stress that already exists on that something else will then be even more stressed.  For example, if Russia starts switching off artillery in favor of FPV drones, this puts more stress on their already problematic workforce and component supplies.  There's no free ride for Russia, though obviously some things have more to give than others before stress cracks them.

If Russia is forced into transitioning to FPVs instead of artillery this will be a good thing for Ukraine.  As we've seen, artillery is still a critical component of this war.  FPVs have not yet gotten to the point of being able to replace it completely.  Russian offensive and defensive doctrine also relies heavily upon artillery to compensate for it's general military failings.  Ukraine far less so.  Which means Ukraine was more predisposed to successfully switching from artillery to drones and yet it found artillery was still sorely needed.  Russia is far less predisposed to such a switch, so it's a pretty safe assumption to make that they would not transition as well as Ukraine did.

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

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A Ukrainian 2S7 Pion/PzH 2000 artillery unit confirms that they have received a new supply of shells, and are currently working towards delivering them onto Russian positions.

Ukraine is likely receiving ammunition from a number of sources at the moment, partially alleviating some of the shortages units like the 43rd Artillery Brigade were facing.

 

[FancyCat]

youtube: 

 

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From an interview with an Abrams tank commander from Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade.

(youtube link was here)

Regarding the recent report that Abrams were removed the battlefield. There have been a number of videos over the past few days showing Abrams in combat. 2/

The crew compliments the Abrams' accuracy, stabilization, thermal optics, and maneuverability. They also say the Abrams Reactive Armor Tile (ARAT) is effective, but they don't have reactive armor for the turret, which is the biggest shortcoming. They say the depleted uranium anti-tank rounds are effective, but they need more fragmentation rounds to perform other missions. The gunner and driver both said it was easy to learn how to operate. The driver says it would be effective in tank battles but that isn't the environment they are fighting in.

 

[Billy Ringo]

26 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

youtube: 

 

 

Donald Sutherland in the Dirty Dozen. 

[Probus]

On 5/6/2024 at 6:56 AM, Bulletpoint said:

 

I don't like to call Russians "Orks", but this is straight out of Warhammer 40K

**cough**Ogre Mk 0.1**cough**

[quakerparrot67]

1 hour ago, Billy Ringo said:

Donald Sutherland in the Dirty Dozen. 

You might be thinking 'Kelly's heroes'.............(woof woof!!!,  negative waves, etc.)

 

Edited May 7 by quakerparrot67