How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

Good news about the ATACMS already hitting S-300 and S-400 complexes....WHY THE HELL DID IT TAKE MONTHS AND MONTHS FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. This country ffs.....

Anyhow i was curious for the sourcing on the NYT reporting green light for destroying the Crimean bridge, and im not seeing specific wording mentioned for the bridge in either recent NYT articles on the delivery of ATACMS, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/24/us/us-ukraine-russia-missiles.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/25/us/politics/ukraine-aid-atacms.html

Only general referencing to Crimea as a whole under target, nothing specific about the bridge, the word "bridge" not even mentioned. 

[ZellZeka]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Would be. And some in our Air Forces lobbied them before a war, but... alas....

Yes, I remember there was a discussion among Ukrainian aviation fans that the Super Tucano was a World War II aircraft and it was inferior in everything to the Su-25, and that there was no point in buying it...

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Would be. And some in our Air Forces lobbied them before a war, but... alas....

The Super Tucano is Brazilian, and neither Bolsonaro or Lula allowed its sale to Ukraine, according to wiki, so it was never gonna happen.

Edited April 28 by FancyCat

[Haiduk]

Two Ukrainian servicemen 23 and 36 years old died in stabbing attack in Germany. Both have been underwenting rehabilitation course there after wounding. The murderer - 57 years old Russian was detained.

Germany still a country with most large pro-Russian community, consisting of migrants of several waves - from late Soviet Union to modern Russia. There are many conflicts between them and Ukrainain refugees. Russian community regularly conducts actions in support of Russian agression, demonstratively celebrating Russian  holidays. It's weird, when citizens lives in the country, enjoy all benefits, but hate it and wish to see Russian tanks here.   

Edited April 28 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Yes, I remember there was a discussion among Ukrainian aviation fans that the Super Tucano was a World War II aircraft and it was inferior in everything to the Su-25, and that there was no point in buying it...

Inferior? Ahah... According to avionics and ordnance which can use Super Tucano, Su-25 sucks. 

[ZellZeka]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Inferior? Ahah... According to avionics and ordnance which can use Super Tucano, Su-25 sucks. 

This is accurate, especially in connection with the current effectiveness of guided bombs. Su-25 does not have the ability to use them

[Battlefront.com]

A friend spent some time with the Russian Volunteer Corps very recently.  The RVC is back in Ukraine with a few unspecified exceptions (probably recon and sabotage).  Some interesting info came out of his discussions, which I'm consolidating in my own words...

They are a fairly small group of men, mostly of Russian nationality.  However, there are a smattering of other nationalities who moved over from the International Legion.  The core of the unit are Russian nationals who were living in Ukraine prior to the war starting.  They were most likely anti-Putin before the shooting in 2022 started.  Some amount of Russians from Russia have joined up.

The core mission of the RVC is to help create a free Russia along Western European lines.  Everything my friend encountered underscored that these guys are not radical right wing nutjobs, which of course what the Kremlin would like us to think.

These guys seem to be well grounded realists.  They understand Putin's grip on the Russian population and have no delusions that they, through their own actions, will bring about the collapse of the regime.  However, they believe that they can play a role in helping push things in that direction.  At the very least they said they felt they had to do something other than sit on their butts and complain.

Their missions into Russia is mostly to create havoc and divert Russian resources from other uses.  They went into Russia with explicit goals (not specified for obvious reasons) and they withdrew only after they felt they had achieved their mission.  My friend got the impression that these guys know their own limitations as well as Russia's, so they planned their attack carefully to get the most out of it and then return to base before they got clobbered. 

They do not have the manpower for a stand up fight.  Their equipment is light, their vehicles few.  They are a commando style unit, not a frontline fighting formation.  They took a small number of KIA and WIA in the most recent action, but appear to have caused the Russians far more.  Part of the reason is they didn't choose this particular spot of the front at random. They were looking for a weak point where they could raise hell for a while before serious forces could threaten them.

They apparently operate fully independently when on a mission, though they do coordinate with the GUR generally.  The blackhawk helicopters we saw are still a strange piece to the puzzle.  My friend asked about them several times and got cagey answers, which is not surprising. 

Overall, some interesting stuff!

Steve

[Haiduk]

Reportedly Ukrianian forces became to use almost noiseless night FPV drones. Here is UKR drone slowly follows for two Russians and despite the range is no more 15-20 m and this is a night, Russians don't hear it.

 

[Carolus]

Russian locomotives destroyed by partisans. Haven't seen that before.

Death by a thousand needles is a thing. 

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, Carolus said:

Death by a thousand needles is a thing. 

Yup, we live in hope that it is, indeed.

[dan/california]

7 hours ago, Carolus said:

Russian locomotives destroyed by partisans. Haven't seen that before.

Death by a thousand needles is a thing. 

I have been saying for a very long time that railroad sabotage is the only effective form of political protest. Maybe it is finally sinking in for a few Russians that you ought to accomplish more than waving a sign around before getting shipped to a labor camp for what might as well be forever.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yup, we live in hope that it is, indeed.

At the very least, every Ruble that has to go to replace something like a diesel engine is a Ruble that isn't more directly going to the war effort.  It also leaves the Russian state weaker than it otherwise would be going forward.  Whether it's enough to push the regime into collapse, the costs of this war to Russia matter.

Steve

[Carolus]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

At the very least, every Ruble that has to go to replace something like a diesel engine is a Ruble that isn't more directly going to the war effort.  It also leaves the Russian state weaker than it otherwise would be going forward.  Whether it's enough to push the regime into collapse, the costs of this war to Russia matter.

Steve

I remember the hope we had that the massive loss of trucks in 2022 would result in something, but while it certainly strained the RA (to the point of limited collapse), it didn't break them and even now with the increased supply line distances due to HIMARS, they are holding up well.

Crazy how much their ragtag system is absorbing.

[kimbosbread]

Difference is that there is a very finite supply of locomotives, especially if Russia uses a different rail gauge than many other countries (which is the case, IIRC).

[Holien]

9 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

very finite supply of locomotives

This is very true...

Alas the number of locomotives they would have to destroy is a massive percentage as all that will happen is that they don't use them for the passenger duty or non essential trains.

Also as numbers dwindle it becomes easier to protect those left.

Of course any loss is going to have an effect but not necessarily directly on supplies heading to the front.

Friction certainly helps but it is not the answer alone.

[kimbosbread]

That’s why the oil and electrical infrastructure has to go. Russia can survive with these, but it will be progressively harder to wage war.

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, Carolus said:

I remember the hope we had that the massive loss of trucks in 2022 would result in something, but while it certainly strained the RA (to the point of limited collapse), it didn't break them and even now with the increased supply line distances due to HIMARS, they are holding up well.

Crazy how much their ragtag system is absorbing.

Yup.  Though we always have to remember that the state of things today is the direct result of what has happened (or not happened) before. 

I am constantly reminded of the WW2 situation where people consider the Allied strategic bombing campaign a failure because German war production increased while it was going on.  They neglect to consider how much higher it would have been without the bombing or how much cheaper it would be to manufacture airplanes in factories instead of salt mines.

The destruction of Russian infrastructure used for this war DOES have an impact even if it doesn't seem to be pushing the regime into collapse.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am constantly reminded of the WW2 situation where people consider the Allied strategic bombing campaign

With the caveat that Ukraine is not able to conduct this kind of campaign against Russia at present, and western weapons have been taken off the table for this.

That’s why I think the focus on critical, hard-to-replace infrastructure assets is key. If they can take all of the refineries within 500km of the Ukrainian border offline, more or less permanently, there’s just no way for Russia to fix these. Same with substations; there just aren’t spares for those kinds of transformers. Same with locomotives, though those are something that can be built.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

On 4/27/2024 at 8:44 PM, The_Capt said:

You tell yourselves this…try going to a soccer game.  Hell get on a train before a soccer game.  Understatement is not how I would describe the experience.

That itself is an understatement. To be fair though, it is hard to overstate the directness of the message expressed in the English football chants such as "Adam Johnson's paedophile", "Does she take it up the arse" or "Your just a fat granny shagger".

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That itself is an understatement. To be fair though, it is hard to overstate the directness of the message expressed in the English football chants such as "Adam Johnson's paedophile", "Does she take it up the arse" or "Your just a fat granny shagger".

It is such an elegant and nuanced language really….

[Probus]

I'm beginning to believe that the slowness of the West's response to Ukrainian needs must be hugely encouraging to Putin and his gang.  You guys have probably hashed this out already and I missed it.  I really hope support for Ukraine does not wain again.  Are most of you still in the camp that Ukraine can win militarily? 

[poesel]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That itself is an understatement. To be fair though, it is hard to overstate the directness of the message expressed in the English football chants such as "Adam Johnson's paedophile", "Does she take it up the arse" or "Your just a fat granny shagger".

Well, scientific proof that BFCs potty mouth filters are no match for English football songs.

[FancyCat]

It's undoubtedly encouraging Russia to continue, the West shot itself in the foot over the lack of ramp up, will, and ignorance to increase its MIC capability.

I mention again, who the hell in Ukraine wants to enlist and spend their time getting shelled by Russia pumping out these shells while Europe lifts their nose at Indian made artillery shells? And America acts like a absolute idiot? More equipment to Ukraine. I'm actually starting to get pissed by the high dollar amounts touted by the West, numbers dammit, not cost.

Quote

When people are laughing at russia protection cages, i get it you enjoy it. but these damn barns on top of armor work unfortunately.  It won't survive direct artillery hit, or probably something like TOW2, but it perfectly capable of withstanding multiple FPV hits.  I don't think it's a great addition in a maneuver warfare, but it quite effective in a positional war.  And in the end it comes to our infantry to stop them. Infantry is still the last line of defense.

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

It's undoubtedly encouraging Russia to continue, the West shot itself in the foot over the lack of ramp up, will, and ignorance to increase its MIC capability.

I mention again, who the hell in Ukraine wants to enlist and spend their time getting shelled by Russia pumping out these shells while Europe lifts their nose at Indian made artillery shells? And America acts like a absolute idiot? More equipment to Ukraine. I'm actually starting to get pissed by the high dollar amounts touted by the West, numbers dammit, not cost.

 

Not sure what to make of that video.  First, it's from a Russian propagandist so pinch of salt needed.  Second, I didn't see any definitive FPV hits.  Third, in the end a tank and 1 of 4 transports made it out.  It was really hard to tell what was going on because of all those stupid edits, but I think we did see evidence of at least one or two being blown up.  Fourth, on the way it it looks like they got hit by cluster munitions and at the very end I think that tank got KO'd by something.

I have no doubt the barns provide some protection against FPVs.  They simply don't have enough explosives power to go through shielding and have enough oomph left over to penetrate the vehicle's armor.  TOW and Javelin would not have that sort of problem.  Probably not NLAW either.

Steve

[Kraft]

20 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

It's undoubtedly encouraging Russia to continue, the West shot itself in the foot over the lack of ramp up, will, and ignorance to increase its MIC capability.

I mention again, who the hell in Ukraine wants to enlist and spend their time getting shelled by Russia pumping out these shells while Europe lifts their nose at Indian made artillery shells? And America acts like a absolute idiot? More equipment to Ukraine. I'm actually starting to get pissed by the high dollar amounts touted by the West, numbers dammit, not cost.

 

Shouldn't a more modern RPG warheads melted copper jet have no issue going ~1 meter through air after hitting the sheet metal roof and still penetrate a turret beneath?

The protection does seem to be working, Im sure there have been attempts at taking them out with FPV but nothing was ever published, so they likely all failed so far.

Edited April 29 by Kraft