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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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22 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Russia already controls large swathes of Ukraine with valuable minerals (primarily needed for EV's) which with China gives them a huge longterm strategic advantage (assuming that we do not switch from EV's to a better source of power like hydrogen).  All Russia has to do is sit on that land and hold out.  

Link please? (and preferably from an industry publication that studies resource flows, not just some guy making sh&the up).

...Regarding essential resources, I share the fear expressed by others above that the essential and non-substitutable resource that is going to run out first is Ukrainian frontline infantry strength. They've done a good job of hiding it and so it's impossible to prove, but I am extremely worried....

*****

Meanwhile, waxis of weasels:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/05/trump-ukraine-secret-plan/

....

https://montelnews.com/news/06cb4e7c-081a-4bad-ac16-3eed780d4e04/russian-gas-exit-should-be-gradual-french-minister

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

that is going to run out first is Ukrainian frontline infantry strength

Ukraine had the finest most battle hardened and motivated infantrymen West could hope to employ imo. It is still unknown the losses they suffered in the large counter offensive. 

Unfortunately many were lost too in lengthy sieges like Bahmut, Mariupol and Avdeevka and keep suffering losses under Glide bombs and artillery. 

These troops would rather die than succumb to Russia's plans, and hated them with a passion. 

That's the no1 adversary Russia had to defeat. After that, what kind of infantry will fight against them in eastern Europe ? Polish conscripts or French legionnaires? 

The dramatic surge in FPV drone use might be an indication how Ukraine plans to counter a possible a frontline manpower issue. They are in cases more effective/deadly than a whole platoon of infantry but can they really replace infantry? 

 

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5 hours ago, panzermartin said:

The hypothesis that somehow they will be backtracking afraid of business disruption with the West was false.

No, this statement is false.  You are aware that the world is more complicated than binary yes/no logic, yes?  Tell me, how much aid do you think China COULD provide Russia that it isn't currently providing?  Lots, right?  And what they are providing they are trying to do covertly, right?  So, do the math and you'll see China is doing what it always does... test the boundaries of what the West will accept and then stopping short of crossing to the other side out of concern for the ramifications.

The West is only recently been turning up the heat on China.  Results will be uneven and hard to quantify, but from what I've read they do seem to be having an impact. 

5 hours ago, panzermartin said:

China is an almost unlimited X factor imo, both in resources, production capacity and levels of involvement. 

This makes the Ukraine war a lot more complicated. 

Yes it does, but there are real constraints on what the Chinese government can do because its power rests on the success of its business enterprises.  Although the Chinese government has far more control and influence over what its businesses do compared to Western countries, it is ultimately at the mercy of economic forces just like its Western counterparts.

Western economic sanctions work best on decision making that is based on short term calculations.  Chinese businesses are no different than Western ones in that they are hyper forced on the short term.  It's all well and fine for the Chinese government to think it's worth pissing off the West, but for a company with a huge percentage of its existence linked to DAILY trade with the West it is a very different story.  The Chinese Communist Party understands this dynamic and they are obligated to pay attention to it.  So far, at least, they have favored withholding aid from Russia more than offering it help.

Steve

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49 minutes ago, photon said:

This is such a weird take to me as to be somewhat incomprehensible.

That is because Erwin's points are coming from a biased and myopic view of this war.  One that is largely in sympathy with Russian talking points.  Ergo, a "weird take".  Which, as many long time forum members will note, is consistent with his posting style generally.

Steve

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1 hour ago, Erwin said:

Am sorry to point out that it is the opposite.  Russia already controls large swathes of Ukraine with valuable minerals (primarily needed for EV's) which with China gives them a huge longterm strategic advantage (assuming that we do not switch from EV's to a better source of power like hydrogen).  All Russia has to do is sit on that land and hold out.  

I bolded the only part of this poppycock that makes any sense to address.  And even then, it's a really terrible point.

Afghanistan has a wealth of minerals, including the critical ones for EVs.  Lots and lots of value, lots and lots of strategic worth.  $1 Trillion by this estimate:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/18/business/afghanistan-lithium-rare-earths-mining/index.html

"All the West had to do was sit on that land and hold out"

The US and its allied partners held out for 20 years.

How'd that work out for them?

It's always easier to take something than it is to keep it.  It's always easier to keep something than it is to exploit its value.  Russia needs to keep and exploit.  No signs that is going well so far.  Russia doesn't have endless resources, nor does it have some magical method of manufacturing time.  Time is not a Russian asset.

Steve

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1 hour ago, Tenses said:

Taking a few steps back and looking at overall situation, what exactly do you think can really change the tide of this war? Beacuse even with these recent massive mechanized losses the pressure is pretty much the same and we know that when BMPs, BMDs and tanks will not be available, Ruzzians will just go on foot. We currently wait for(and Ukrainians die in the meantime):

- ammunition to artillery/more artillery: This will provide support, which is badly needed, especially in defence, might actually stop most of the attacks but not for long due to penetration of Russian ISR up to and beyond artillery positions.

- F16s : Just as above and might also have some impact on air defence. I don't see much usage in offence deep behind the frontline, definitly can provide good very close to the frontline air support. If will be properly used, with superior Ukraine ISR, can be hard to deal by Russian anti-air. The minus is that every mistake will be extremely costly and irreplacable(mainly the pilots, planes to the lesser degree).

- air defence, anti tank weaponry replacements : this should assure keeping the quality of both of these on current, in my opinion, pretty high level

Apart from these, which should come from the "West" exclusively we have the drone war, but is it possible to achieve quality+quantity=pressure of drone swarms to actually push back? I see that as currently the only option to do that but I am not sure, if gaining that high pressure is actually possible. It was analyzed here many times that using classical means for counteroffensive is generally death sentence.

And if pushing back is not possible what are we looking at here? Either there is a plan to turn the tide or not, I would not count on Russia running out of something, even if it looks like it. It went for the ammo to North Korea, it went for drones to Iran, it produces a lot by itself, if real necessity arises I don't belive it won't get support from China in a meaningful way. And I think it is clear to everyone that China has no bottom, the current "Games of Hegemony" is exactly because of that.

So, do we have a clear target here or just "wait and see"?

 

 

1 hour ago, Holien said:

Yep, Ukraine to win just has to stay in the fight...

What game plan does Russia have to win this?

Time is on the Ukrainian side, they just have to keep fighting.

Afghanistan is the model to look at...

If and it's a big IF Ukraine can weather this year and generate enough new force they might have options next year...

In the meantime keep poking the Bears eyes out and making it costly (oil refineries) for Russia to continue...

I one hundred percent agree with Holien, a thousand casualties per DAY is not something the Russians can do forever, NOBODY can do that forever.

The second thing the Russians can't do is fight this war without diesel and jet fuel. The Ukrainians need to push their campaign  against Russian oil refineries as hard as they possibly can, and then harder than that.

The one thing I would add, is drone DEFENCE. If the Ukrainians could could suddenly start knocking Russian drones out the sky wholesale, the entire Russian system would come apart in a month. This works both ways of course, so NATO needs to be absolutely sure the Ukrainians get there first.

 

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13 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

I one hundred percent agree with Holien, a thousand casualties per DAY is not something the Russians can do forever, NOBODY can do that forever.

The second thing the Russians can't do is fight this war without diesel and jet fuel. The Ukrainians need to push their campaign  against Russian oil refineries as hard as they possibly can, and then harder than that.

The one thing I would add, is drone DEFENCE. If the Ukrainians could could suddenly start knocking Russian drones out the sky wholesale, the entire Russian system would come apart in a month. This works both ways of course, so NATO needs to be absolutely sure the Ukrainians get there first.

 

Agreed, counter drone, which is reliable, cheap AND scalable would be a game changer. With that and Russian ISR removed, Ukraine could go back to late spring 2023 and smash Russians into the ground as soon as artillery ammo arrives.

But currently I don't see that happening and as @LongLeftFlank mentioned Ukrainians, especially prepared and motivated, is not a resource which is infinite. I feel that something needs to change very fast to prevent further escalation of negative trend in force multiplier to give Ukraine a breath by properly training, equipping and rotating infantry. 

Massive counter drone is a holy grail, but what can be done in the meantime? Holy grails usually take some time to find, you know...

 

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UKR FPVs are hunting for Russian infantrymen near abandoned Russian tank. After one soldier was hit other try to hide under the tank, but the drone reaches them even there. Finally other drone makes lucky shot and cooks off the tank. I suppose, families of these soldiers will not get any compensations or LADAs - no the body, no money.

 

Edited by Haiduk
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1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I share the fear expressed by others above that the essential and non-substitutable resource that is going to run out first is Ukrainian frontline infantry strength.

Hopefully it will be easier to husband this resource on defense, with proper fortifications. I am optimistic Syrkski has learned a lesson here.

31 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

The dramatic surge in FPV drone use might be an indication how Ukraine plans to counter a possible a frontline manpower issue. They are in cases more effective/deadly than a whole platoon of infantry but can they really replace infantry?

So far, as Capt has said, they can deny ground but not hold it. Basic last-mile autonomy is coming extremely soon, and it’s going to hurt badly for the Russians when their EW can’t stop a certain fraction of drones that could be stopped before.

1 minute ago, Tenses said:

Agreed, counter drone, which is reliable, cheap AND scalable would be a game changer.

As we’ve discussed, having all 3 is likely a fantasy. That’s a problem, because all 3 are easy on the drone side when you talk about autonomy or most other soft-ware driven features.

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2 hours ago, Erwin said:

The Ukraine war is giving the West China (and others) excellent training on how the East west fights and what weapons systems they we deploy. 

Just fixed that for you..

😉

This war is giving the West a serious edge against China and its Russian knock off copies...

We can see what is working and we can re-tool and re-arm quicker than China.

This war has stopped China dead on its plans to invade Taiwan as they have seen how badly a 3 day war can go.

We are getting real time updates on what works and does not as we are embedded with Ukraine.

How close are the Chinese military with Ukraine?

Do you think China can magically change it's whole military based upon the Russian knock off kit?

The weapons America had in store have now been disposed of at a fraction of the cost it would have needed to

The kit was designed to deal with Russia and less so China so it is being used for what it was bought for.

American jobs and economy is winning because we are buying more of the kit and it works!!!

You really do need to think through this - It is a no brainer for America!!

Finland / Estonia / Poland are not going to stop giving support any time soon.

France and Germany are another thing but currently show no sign of backing down...

 

 

Edited by Holien
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4 minutes ago, Tenses said:

Agreed, counter drone, which is reliable, cheap AND scalable would be a game changer. With that and Russian ISR removed, Ukraine could go back to late spring 2023 and smash Russians into the ground as soon as artillery ammo arrives.

But currently I don't see that happening and as @LongLeftFlank mentioned Ukrainians, especially prepared and motivated, is not a resource which is infinite. I feel that something needs to change very fast to prevent further escalation of negative trend in force multiplier to give Ukraine a breath by properly training, equipping and rotating infantry. 

Massive counter drone is a holy grail, but what can be done in the meantime? Holy grails usually take some time to find, you know...

 

Prior to the explosion of unmanned vehicles in Ukraine industry assured us that they had solutions at the ready, they just needed to be scaled up.  Every single one that's been employed has failed to deliver on its promises and now we're seeing those solutions fall behind.  Add to that false reassurances from people who are selling these systems or things threatened by them.  Here's a short list off the top of my head:

  • Commercial drones aren't useful and military ones are expensive = not that many drones to worry about
  • Limited range will keep them away from critical stuff in the rear
  • APS and ERA are solutions that just needs to be scaled up
  • Scale up kinetic weapons designed to take down UVs
  • Powerful EW systems can effectively counter the drone threat in an area
  • Man portable EW systems can protect infantry
  • Nets, fences, slats, etc. are practical counters
  • Laserbeams on frick'n sharks will do the trick!

The way I see it is there is nothing "in the pipeline" to deal with the threat of UVs.  On the other hand, I see UVs quickly following a very obvious path to overcome even the best that list above has managed to produce.

Steve

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21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR FPVs are hunting for Russian infantrymen near abandoned Russian tank. After one soldier was hit other try to hide under the tank, but the drone reaches them even there. Finally other drone makes lucky shot and cooks off the tank. I suppose, families of these soldiers will not get any compensations or LADAs - no the body, no money.

 

Yet another tank with a large EW system on it that isn't doing anything useful, likely because the engine is off for some reason.

Note the barrel cover.  Odd.  I don't think I've ever seen a Russian tank (or Ukrainian one, for that matter) anywhere near the front with a cover on its barrel.

Steve

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5 hours ago, Erwin said:

Am sorry to point out that it is the opposite.  Russia already controls large swathes of Ukraine with valuable minerals (primarily needed for EV's) which with China gives them a huge longterm strategic advantage (assuming that we do not switch from EV's to a better source of power like hydrogen).  All Russia has to do is sit on that land and hold out.  

Meanwhile, the west has growing economic and social problems and can ill afford a longterm commitment to keep the Ukraine govt financed (currently we are paying for all the govt salaries) and the military reinforcements.  As in Vietnam and Afghanistan, vast sums of aid/cash are being stolen by the Ukrainian oligarchs who are about as corrupt as the Russian ones.

What game plan does Ulraine have to win this other than the forlorn hope that Russia will self-destruct.  Per my own research last year that is very unlikely to happen:

It's debatable whether we in the west are exhausting Russia and China or if they are exhausting us (depleting our weapons reserves).  China is the main foe.  China is akin to Nazi Germany in the 1930's with Russia playing the hapless Italians bogged down in Albania.  The Ukraine war is giving China (and others) excellent training on how the west fights and what weapons systems we deploy.  That is a major reason imo why we are understandably reluctant and slow to provide the best weapons to Ukraine.  

 

I take offence to the term "research".  I have reviewed your thread and clearly you had a conclusion and then set about picking information to support it.  This is not "research" it is "spinning" - I have failed staff college students for doing what you are proposing as "research", applying half the facts, largely out of context.

For example: "Russia already controls large swathes of Ukraine with valuable minerals..."  and linking this back to Chinese motivation to keep Russia in this war.  This is one enormous theory hanging on very little substance.  We have been through the "Ukrainian goldmine" theory before and it was categorically debunked.

Let's take Metals:

https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/UKR/Year/LTST/TradeFlow/Export/Partner/by-country/Product/72-83_Metals

So before this war Ukraine was already selling Russia about $1B a year in metals and about 345M to China.  A quick scan says it looks like Ukraine was doing about $10B in metal globally.  

Meanwhile China is importing $144B a year in metals globally. Mostly from Indonesia, Congo and Japan:

https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/metals/reporter/chn?redirect=true  

China does not need Ukrainian metal, they already have global access an order of magnitude beyond the entirety of Ukraine production.

The we get into detail like Titanium.  Yes, Ukraine has got healthy Titanium reserves:

https://inventure.com.ua/en/analytics/articles/titanium-in-ukraine:-military-and-economic-context#:~:text=What are the reserves of,%2C rutile – 2.5 million tons.

About 8.4 million tons.  Wow, sounds like a big number and no doubt Russia and China want to get their greedy hands on it.  Whoops:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/titanium-reserves-country-10-biggest-155049656.html#:~:text=China is the largest producer,largest vanadium-titanium magnetite deposit.

China is the global leader in titanium production. Why on earth do they want more Titanium from Ukraine on the market?

Lithium? Yes. Ukraine has about 500k tons which are largely untapped. Wow that is a big number:

https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/news-insights/lithium-the-link-between-the-ukraine-war-and-the-clean-energy-transition/

Well unless one considers global Lithium reserves - Ukraine has about half as much as Canada:

https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/minerals-mining/mining-data-statistics-and-analysis/minerals-metals-facts/lithium-facts/24009

You will note that China is sitting on 2M tonnes.

And then there is the thorny issue of where that lithium is located in Ukraine:

image.png.03afcbf028d66ec3876526086708e30b.png

https://www.renewablematter.eu/articles/article/ukraine-all-lithium-reserves-and-mineral-resources-in-war-zones

This is where these wingnut theories really break down.  Russia was already occupying a couple of these deposits in Donetsk.  Lets be generous and say they took enough to grab 4 new deposits.  Woo-hoo.  Now a few thorny questions:  what shape is the infrastructure in these areas look like right now?  How much is it going to cost Russia to get these sites up and running?  How much actual money are they going to make from this sweet lithium?  When can they expect to see any money?  And finally, the big one, how much does all that compare to the costs of sustaining this war?  Last count the war in Ukraine was costing Russia between .5-1 B$ per day. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#:~:text=In November 2022 it was,%24500 million to %241 billion.)

So your theory here is that China is going to spend effort, money and diplomatic points to secure access to lithium, which they do not need and is costing Russia likely far more than it is worth at this point?  In fact the same could be said for just about all Ukrainian metals.

Comparing modern day China to Nazi-Germany is just plain dumb.  Maybe pre-WW1 Germany - ignoring socialist ideologies and about four thousand years of history and culture.  The idea that China somehow masterminded this whole thing (with zero proof, I might add) is laughable.  China is stuck on the other side of this mess and is trying to deal with it on their end. They are going to pursue and promote their interests, just like we are.

Russia and Putin are throwing up all over themselves in some weird attempt to rebuild an Imperial Russia...and are failing brutally.  Sure, Russia could "hold on" until we see some sort of Armistice.  They will have gained a grand total of an additional 6-7% of Ukraine from what they controlled on 21 Feb 22.  It only cost them around 500k men, most of their modern military equipment and diplomatic/geographic isolation that may last several decades....brilliant. 

Edited by The_Capt
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28 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Hopefully it will be easier to husband this resource on defense, with proper fortifications. I am optimistic Syrkski has learned a lesson here.

So far, as Capt has said, they can deny ground but not hold it. Basic last-mile autonomy is coming extremely soon, and it’s going to hurt badly for the Russians when their EW can’t stop a certain fraction of drones that could be stopped before.

As we’ve discussed, having all 3 is likely a fantasy. That’s a problem, because all 3 are easy on the drone side when you talk about autonomy or most other soft-ware driven features.

Yup, and these comments further point up that the key currency in this phase of warfare remains human flesh and blood ('soft ware').

...So short of intercepting, neutralising or 'decontrolling' the drones themselves, the critical path to me is to 'harden' those targets and staunch the bleeding by any means possible (and preferably at mass scale), whether it's decoys, camo, armour, fortification, physical distancing, whatever.

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Apologies if this has already been posted. Having a hard time keeping up and just skimming. 
 

Three drone hits on the unit 6 containment dome. No real damage ( containments are VERY strong), but this is still not great. The reactors are all shut down at least, but decay heat and spent fuel still exist and must be mitigated. 
 

Really you could do more damage hitting infrastructure OUTSIDE the containment, like incoming power lines, diesel generators, secondary water supply equipment from the river/lake. Containment? “‘‘Tis but a scratch”

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-drone-a28710a691f3259b5dd6586787838b60

Dave

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13 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Containment? “‘‘Tis but a scratch”

The usual Russia blaming Ukraine for it...

I tend to think Ukraine have better targets to go at.

Russia perhaps using it to stoke up the threat?

Let's hope they leave it alone...

BTW I saw some footage of the Russians blowing up the dam that they said Ukraine did...

Will have to dig out the link for checking if it is valid footage...

FWIIW

 

Edited by Holien
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I'm sure they launched 15 naval drones from the same five person pleasure yacht they run the huge and complicated operation to destroy NordStream from 😁

...

Anyway, as for the resources. I have heard that a few times (mostly about natural gas, EV minerals are a new one) and I'm confused how it's supposed to work. There are barely places in occupied Ukraine that are further than 100 km from the front line. Most are closer.

Are Russians going to start building new mines and refineries (or gas drills or whatever) there? Full of new, expensive machinery? How long are they going to stay unexploded, considering Ukraine is now blowing up oil refineries hundreds of kilometers inside Russia?

If there was a ceasefire, maybe. But Ukraine doesn't seem to want one, and neither does Russia for that matter.

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1 hour ago, Holien said:

Just fixed that for you..

😉

This war is giving the West a serious edge against China and its Russian knock off copies...

We can see what is working and we can re-tool and re-arm quicker than China.

This war has stopped China dead on its plans to invade Taiwan as they have seen how badly a 3 day war can go.

We are getting real time updates on what works and does not as we are embedded with Ukraine.

How close are the Chinese military with Ukraine?

Do you think China can magically change it's whole military based upon the Russian knock off kit?

The weapons America had in store have now been disposed of at a fraction of the cost it would have needed to

The kit was designed to deal with Russia and less so China so it is being used for what it was bought for.

American jobs and economy is winning because we are buying more of the kit and it works!!!

You really do need to think through this - It is a no brainer for America!!

Finland / Estonia / Poland are not going to stop giving support any time soon.

France and Germany are another thing but currently show no sign of backing down...

 

 

To me it seems that the trend is changing. Europe try to take the initiative in the war since the USA shown reluctance about supporting Ukraine. Which is i think the way to go. USA is more concerned with the pacific theater and Europe need to build up force to not rely the USA that much anyway.

This war is now a grind because of the state of warfare in present day, therefor the critical factor can be psyops. Nato states should actively hunt for russian influencers and speed up the propaganda machine against the russians. Also there should be a constant effort to influence the russian population with every tool available.  There should be a constant stream of war is terrible propaganda aimed at the russian average Joe and Jane. Hacked TV stations, abusing VK algorithm to show the pointless and cruel end of the russians in Ukraine. Constantly, everyday, beating in to their head that this is pointless, terrible and can be stopped by them.

 

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22 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

EV minerals are a new one

This is a right wing anti EV trope that Erwin is throwing into the pot, as is his Hydrogen BS as a viable (it's not) alternative to EVs.

He has been watching too much FOX news and has made a Mish mash post...

I bet if I spent some time down a dark rabbit hole I could find the people spewing this nonsense...

But of course Erwin could back up his post with some proof and prove us wrong...

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58 minutes ago, Holien said:

The usual Russia blaming Ukraine for it...

I tend to think Ukraine have better targets to go at.

If Ukraine wanted to seriously damage/destroy the plant, it has any number of artillery methods to do it.  Cripes, it's just over a skinny little bit of water!

Not that anybody with 2 cents worth of intelligence would think Ukraine has a reason to risk irradiating it's own land.

Steve

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17 minutes ago, Holien said:

This is a right wing anti EV trope that Erwin is throwing into the pot, as is his Hydrogen BS as a viable (it's not) alternative to EVs.

He has been watching too much FOX news and has made a Mish mash post...

I bet if I spent some time down a dark rabbit hole I could find the people spewing this nonsense...

But of course Erwin could back up his post with some proof and prove us wrong...

Yeah, I've got plenty of earfuls about this from my pro Trump friends when they aren't saying how much a boondoggle wind energy is (despite it being in use for a few thousand years).

Steve

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