How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Some more burnt Russian iron of last 2-3 days

Klishchiivka, southern flank of Bakhmut - four Russian BMPs finished own attack on mines, set by sappers of 5th assault brigade

Attack of Russian armored column, probably Terny direction (minus 3 tanks ans 1 BMP), though several Russian infantrymen could reach tree-plant.

Tricky billiards shot by grenade and next abandoned T-90M sets on fire. Tank equipped by EW anti-drone station, but of course it doesn't work on abandoned vehicle.

63th mech.brigade destroys TOS-1A near Zhytlivka village, Kreminna direction

 

[Haiduk]

Russian T-62 (?) in tsar-coup-cage and camo

[Haiduk]

Large fire in Kursk after UKR presumably drone attack

Blinken: "we don't support Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory". 

 

[poesel]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

This sounds more like the pre GPS cruise missile guidance systems than true AI. Although there could be another layer to the software obviously. Either way it is fantastic they can't be diverted by GPS jamming.

Most of what is labeled AI today is pattern recognition of some sorts. So a cruise missile that can orient itself by looking down and compare that to a map is AI driven.

As soon as you can chat with a missile, bad things happen.

 

[Kinophile]

Literally proves the point yet again, "Where there's the Will, there's a Way". 

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Russian T-62 (?) in tsar-coup-cage and camo

Ok, that is a hat wearing a hat.  Just trying too hard.

[sburke]

19 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Literally proves the point yet again, "Where there's the Will, there's a Way". 

 

considering the disparity in resources, i wonder how the price war is affecting Russia's ability to purchase munitions.  China for one has got to wonder about

1. Sanctions if selling to Russia.

2. The more lucrative possibilities of selling to the west.

- assuming China is an actual resource for selling munitions.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

As soon as you can chat with a missile, bad things happen.

 

One of my faves!

Commander Powell would have named it.

[Kinophile]

 

 

[ASL Veteran]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for this post and suffering through the messiness that is democratic discourse.  Although I was 95% sure where this was headed after sfhand's first post, I am obligated to let it play out if this is to be a truly open conversation where people don't fear the "ban stick" for voicing a contrary position.  As painful as it might be to work through, it's an acceptable price to the alternative.

(on a side note... 25 years of managing this Forum has given me some "mad skilz" in pattern recognition.  The conspiracy theorists like to think of themselves as special, but in reality they are common and mundane.  Which is why they are so easily spotted)

Well summed up and definitely depressing how easily people are duped.  It's not just the extremes (Flat Earth, Q-Anon, Stolen Election, etc), but very much everyday experiences.  There's a reason why so many YouTube ads start out with phrases like:

1.  One simple trick/hack...

2.  This crazy idea...

3.  Throw out all of you X and buy this...

4.  You aren't ready to handle this...

5.  You can earn millions by...

etc.

I see things like this and feel a little vomit in my throat, yet there's plenty of people that think "wow, this sounds great!". The same people that believe conspiracy theories are the same ones who jump on pretty much any manipulation train someone invites them onto.  Politics being an obvious one that constantly derails otherwise good people into tracks that go nowhere good.

I feel bad for these people because it's all self inflicted.  They spend their money they rarely can afford on scams.  They spend their time angry at things that don't exist.  They become less social, losing friends, family, and better balanced communities.  This makes them angrier and more depressed.  That's not a great way to go through life on this planet.

And this is the other reason I allow conspiracy theory/alternate reality discussions to run amok for a short period of time.  The rest of the world needs to wake up to how dangerous these people are to themselves and others.  The Tuckerfication of the world will bring about nothing by misery.  The more we are exposed to the danger, the clearer it becomes and the easier it is to spot it.  There might not be much we can do to combat it, but not recognizing or understanding the danger certainly isn't going to help.

Steve

People tend to believe in things that reinforce their worldviews and disbelieve things that don't fit within that worldview.  Everyone has a weakness that can be exploited by someone else.    

 

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, ASL Veteran said:

People tend to believe in things that reinforce their worldviews and disbelieve things that don't fit within that worldview.  Everyone has a weakness that can be exploited by someone else.    

 

It's ironic that you exactly prove your point by posting an outrage-farming video by someone with a clear political bias watching a video by someone else with a political bias (who misrepresents what people say and asks leading questions) rather than actual data. I will not discuss US politics as I am not American, it is off-topic and it will just lead to a ****-show, so consider this post in the vein of how to form evidence-based opinions, which has been a central point of discussion over the past few pages.

Here is an actual study on this topic. Note how they outline their methodology and openly discuss the limitations of the study. You are also free to decide for yourself if these are meaningful when spread out over the entire population (though you would really need to look more closely at local situations given the way the electoral system works).

WHO LACKED PHOTO ID IN 2020?: An Exploration of the American National Election Studies

Edited April 3 by Offshoot

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Each to their own.  However, I will disagree if people start to frame this war as a lost for Ukraine if they somehow fail to accomplish this.  Restoration of 1991 borders has been a larger long term objective of Ukraine.  To my mind “above and beyond” this specific war itself.  If it can be done through this war, absolutely great.  If it cannot, we should not have another parade through here of politically motivated trolls declaring this war a net loss because they are unable to accomplish a goal that they never really were planning to accomplish through this war in the first place.

Further, there is risk assigning it as a current war goal. This could be twisted into some sort of Ukrainian conspiracy to start this war and drag the West into supporting them to re-take back to 1991.  There is no evidence of this and I honestly doubt it was what Ukrainian political leadership were thinking on 23 Feb 22.

Now where it may be a goal is for the West, as we are more likely to benefit for a hard re-set in line with the rules going all the way back to the violations of 2014. But I am not sure it is what we had in mind from the offset either.

I don't disagree.  I was simply saying that Ukraine, consistently and publicly, has stated that they're not going to view this war as over until all Ukrainian territory is returned to them.  Including Crimea.  Now, how realistic is that?  Even with a complete collapse of Russian central authority I don't think it's a sure bet at all.  So I for one won't be judging Ukraine's success/failures of this war (2022) based on whether they get back to 2014 or 1991 borders.  Heck, there's any number of scenarios I'd give Ukraine an unequivocal "win" even if they don't get back to 2022.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, ASL Veteran said:

People tend to believe in things that reinforce their worldviews and disbelieve things that don't fit within that worldview.  Everyone has a weakness that can be exploited by someone else.    

 

Not only is it clearly off topic, but (as was pointed out) a "hit piece" by someone with a political agenda.  Please don't do this sort of thing again.  You know better.  I know you know better.

Steve

[Vet 0369]

On 4/1/2024 at 12:01 PM, riptides said:

So sad that person is an elected official.

Even worse....that that sort of drivel can be spouted and not a thing can be done about it.

 

What do you mean “Even worse …about it?” The day that someone, anyone, “can do something about it” is the day this country ceases to exist as a Republic guided by our Constitution! It is extremely pitiful when someone complains that an opposite point of view, no matter how distasteful it is to another should be forbidden. The oath I swore for over 60 years both in the military and in Federal Government service “To protect and defend the Constitution against all enemies, both foreign AND DOMESTIC….” Is deeply ingrained in me. The First Amendment protections of free speech and freedom of association doesn’t apply to just you alone, and I will fight to the death to preserve YOUR right to speech and association even when I think you’re a left-wing nut case! Will you guarantee the same to me and others? It sure doesn’t look it from your statement.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

 

 

This is something we've not talked about at all.  One of the side benefits of all the stuff Ukraine has operated over the past 2 years has given it an incredible opportunity to come up with its own designs that leverage all that knowledge.  What works, what doesn't, what could be better, what is fine as is, how good things can get, how bad things can be... all of that.  No Western nation has had such an opportunity, not even countries like Poland.

In theory this gives Ukraine ingredients to cook up some extremely competitive export products when this war is over.

Steve

[alison]

1 hour ago, ASL Veteran said:

People tend to believe in things that reinforce their worldviews and disbelieve things that don't fit within that worldview.  Everyone has a weakness that can be exploited by someone else.   

I'm not sure sharing a culture war "own the libs" video is really helping make your point, unless your point is that this kind of sensationalist propaganda exists, which we already know because that's what this branch of the conversation is about.

What I hope to get from this thread, and other serious conversations on the internet, is something that sifts out examples that are cherry-picked to push an agenda, something that tries to go beyond the usual ideological points-scoring. To really understand what is going on in a way that will lead to better outcomes in the future, we need to be data-driven, we need to consider analysis from experts in the field, we need people to make cases based on evidence that can been broadly and independently corroborated.

To be clear, I have nothing against propaganda per se. It has its uses, in particular to influence people who are politically uninterested and/or ignorant. When discussing propaganda it is perfectly reasonable to say that "people can believe what they want" because the goal of propaganda is not to educate but to influence. In a country with freedom of expression and freedom of religion, we should accept that there is always some portion of the population that is going to hold convictions based purely on vibes and woo. When bad guys try to leverage the democratic power of those people, bad stuff happens, and that's the price we pay for living in a democracy. I can assure you, it does not work the same way under an authoritarian government.

But in a scholarly environment, or a professional environment, or a (mostly) serious discussion like this thread... That's where I think letting this kind of propaganda in the door is counter-productive. It might give us an insight into how people think, and how those with power are trying to influence people to think, but at the end of the day that's only one small component of the issue, and due to its sensationalist nature, it can distract from more important signals. It's more helpful and more interesting (to me) to think about the effect of this propaganda than to simply parrot it.

For example, here is a recent article discussing how LLMs can aid in disinformation campaigns: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666827024000215

Or - and apologies for the sidetrack into my own personal area of expertise - here is part of an ongoing investigation into a multi-year probably state-sponsored operation to try subvert a key piece of infrastructure used in computers and other devices all over the world: https://research.swtch.com/xz-timeline

That is what these guys are up to. I want to talk about how we can defeat that stuff, to protect the democracy and freedoms we hold dear.

Let's go back to Ukraine. Perun responds with facts to pro-Russia critics on his previous video who falsely claimed that of course the Russian export industry is suffering because that's just how it goes in war. Spoiler: that is not how it goes.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/white-house-open-ending-lng-export-pause-push-ukraine-aid-sources-say-2024-04-02/

Let the horse trading commence!

Forget the talking heads, my old friend @Vet 0369, 'follow the money' crosses all partisan lines, everywhere and at all times!

[LongLeftFlank]

7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/white-house-open-ending-lng-export-pause-push-ukraine-aid-sources-say-2024-04-02/

Let the horse trading commence!

Forget the talking heads, my old friend @Vet 0369, 'follow the money' crosses all partisan lines, everywhere and at all times!

...sorry Vet, I named the wrong guy and can't edit for some reason. No intent to call you out, and you are quite right on free speech, although it's also important to stay OT (I am as guilty as others of straying).

[billbindc]

27 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/white-house-open-ending-lng-export-pause-push-ukraine-aid-sources-say-2024-04-02/

Let the horse trading commence!

Forget the talking heads, my old friend @Vet 0369, 'follow the money' crosses all partisan lines, everywhere and at all times!

This actually is a good sign. The White House has something the GOP wants and Johnson seems willing to trade for it. As the US is already cranking out record amounts of fossil fuels, it's also unlikely to change much in the real world. 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

This actually is a good sign. The White House has something the GOP wants and Johnson seems willing to trade for it. As the US is already cranking out record amounts of fossil fuels, it's also unlikely to change much in the real world. 

And as some pro-national interest Republicans have pointed out, the chances Ukraine will have to repay loans is probably as close to zero as one can get.  It only takes one Presidential Admin and sympathetic Congress to waive it away.  So it seems both get something they want without really having to give up much of real value.  It almost doesn't get better than that in DC, eh?

Steve

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

This actually is a good sign. The White House has something the GOP wants and Johnson seems willing to trade for it. As the US is already cranking out record amounts of fossil fuels, it's also unlikely to change much in the real world. 

100% agree, and we actually need to export more gas to keep Europe supplied. And the more we export the less the Russians can charge, regardless of who they arfe selling to. The ban was a bad idea to start with, or brilliant way to get a bit of negotiating leverage the administration will be just as happy to give back. 

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

...sorry Vet, I named the wrong guy and can't edit for some reason. No intent to call you out, and you are quite right on free speech, although it's also important to stay OT (I am as guilty as others of straying).

You’re absolutely correct LLF! I usually try to ignore such comments, especially when I don’t know whether the poster is “Foreign or DOMESTIC.” Intolerance by anyone simply makes my blood boil as I consider them to be the cause of most of the world’s problems.

 I apologize.

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Some more burnt Russian iron of last 2-3 days

Klishchiivka, southern flank of Bakhmut - four Russian BMPs finished own attack on mines, set by sappers of 5th assault brigade

Attack of Russian armored column, probably Terny direction (minus 3 tanks ans 1 BMP), though several Russian infantrymen could reach tree-plant.

Tricky billiards shot by grenade and next abandoned T-90M sets on fire. Tank equipped by EW anti-drone station, but of course it doesn't work on abandoned vehicle.

63th mech.brigade destroys TOS-1A near Zhytlivka village, Kreminna direction

 

I wonder how many combat sorties a Russian tanker can achieve before getting blown up?  I've not read any speculation lately about training and combat experience of the average Russian tanker.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Because nobody posted this yesterday, here is aftermath of Russians armored assault attempts in different places for March 30th - April 1st

Thanks for posting those videos.  This seems to confirm that Russia is still trying to advance with significant armored forces (as opposed to dismounted meat waves) and not finding much success at it.  Good.

Steve

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder how many combat sorties a Russian tanker can achieve before getting blown up?  I've not read any speculation lately about training and combat experience of the average Russian tanker.

Steve

Given that every attempt at a real attack seems to take thirty or forty percent casualties, if not more, the obvious answer would be about three. But that is probably to low, because they use tanks for things besides armored banzai charges. The casualty rate for low commitment shoot and scoot missions is probably quite a bit lower. Still, even if my numbers are off by quite bit the odds living to spend the money they may or may not actually be paying you seem rather low.

At a minimum it seems worse than either the Eighth Air Force B-17 crew, or the German U-boat fleet, and both of those were horrible.