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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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Kerch bridge under attack?... 

Confirmed - UAVs And USVs... 

HOWEVER

It might not just be a strike on the bridge, but also on a BSF vessel near the bridge. No reports so far mention the bridge itself getting hit, but all state 'near' is the bridge. Obviously, the the sea is near the bridge :)

 

Sergei Kotov, corvette, is suggested as target. Interestingly, from wiki :

Quote

Flaws include insufficient seaworthiness, light armour, and a lack of adequate air defences. After the sinking of the Moskva, the Russian Navy began attaching Tor-M2 km missile systems onto the helicopter decks of the patrol ships.

Well, reports now of Yes, the bridge possibly is hit. Question is was it the primary target and the Kotov was defending, or just collateral hits to a strike on the Kotov... 

Edited by Kinophile
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/04/its-true-the-russian-army-attacked-ukrainian-positions-in-open-top-golf-carts/?sh=6d62088d44a4

It’s reckless, if not insane, to deploy an open-top, unarmored all-terrain vehicle—in essence, a heavy-duty golf cart—in combat just a quarter mile from the front line.

But two years into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, Russian commanders are at least reckless if not not insane. Apparently this weekend, a Russian unit—possibly the 488th Motor Rifle Regiment—attacked positions held by the Ukrainian 60th Mechanized Brigade in Yampolivka, in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.

 

Results were almost perfect, for the Ukrainians. 

 
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/04/opinion/nuclear-war-prevention.html

The risk of nuclear escalation in Ukraine, while now low, has been a primary concern for the Biden administration throughout the conflict, details of which are being reported here for the first time. In a series of interviews over the past year, U.S. and Ukrainian officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal planning, diplomacy and ongoing security preparations.

 

The NYT is just shamelessly spouting Putin's talking points. "He waved his magical nuclear stick, we must surrender"

Edit: Of course if it works Putin will wave it at Poland  next week, and Japan will be a declared nuclear power by May. The South Koreans may or may not beat them to it. Twenty other countries will be at least starting crash programs.

Edited by dan/california
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1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

The NYT is just shamelessly spouting Putin's talking points. "He waved his magical nuclear stick, we must surrender"

Edit: Of course if it works Putin will wave it at Poland  next week, and Japan will be a declared nuclear power by May. The South Koreans may or may not beat them to it. Twenty other countries will be at least starting crash programs.

That isn't actually what it says.  It is more about where we stand now with a complete reversal of where things had been when the US and Soviet Union began a drawdown in weapons and moves to limit the risk of nuclear war.  It is only saying anything about Ukraine as a tangent to the overall global risk and specifically brings up the rumors Russia started about the Ukrainians doing a "false flag dirty bomb" which the US and Ukraine felt was a cover for Russia to use a tactical nuke.  It never once suggests a Ukrainian negotiation or even a discussion of the state of the war there.

The overall article is about the increased proliferation and development of new weapons in a world with an increase in conflicts.  You really should read this stuff before stating what it is about.

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38 minutes ago, sburke said:

That isn't actually what it says.  It is more about where we stand now with a complete reversal of where things had been when the US and Soviet Union began a drawdown in weapons and moves to limit the risk of nuclear war.  It is only saying anything about Ukraine as a tangent to the overall global risk and specifically brings up the rumors Russia started about the Ukrainians doing a "false flag dirty bomb" which the US and Ukraine felt was a cover for Russia to use a tactical nuke.  It never once suggests a Ukrainian negotiation or even a discussion of the state of the war there.

The overall article is about the increased proliferation and development of new weapons in a world with an increase in conflicts.  You really should read this stuff before stating what it is about.

I read it, and you may be correct that I over slanted my review a little, but publishing this now is just a blatant attempt to lean on Ukraine harder. The headline is literally BE AFRAID. It also claimed to have some sort of new information, and we discussed every single thing they even mentioned eons ago. NYT has been doing this for weeks, looking for the worst possible spin in four articles out of five about Ukraine. My opinion, worth what you paid. 

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58 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It also claimed to have some sort of new information, and we discussed every single thing they even mentioned eons ago. 

Actually there were things here I had not seen before.  Could be I missed them in the 3200+ pages.

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21 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Claims to show moment of impact against the "Sergei Kotov" patrol vessel.

 

 

Certainly looks like a ship was hit.  The explosion looked significant enough to cause serious damage.  With some luck that damage includes whatever happens to the keel when it hits the seabed!

Steve

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29 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Claims to show moment of impact against the "Sergei Kotov" patrol vessel.

 

 

It looks like there was a smaller explosion at the waterline just before the big one - I wonder what that was about? And just before the guy turns away you can see what looks like the wake of maybe another drone (just above the orange rope), so this probably wasn't the end of the story.

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I'm not sure there were any attacks on the bridge at all, I think Ukranians are just using the limited ability of ships to maneuver in the limited space to hit them. We've seen it a few times already.

The Russians are spinning it as "attack on the bridge but the bridge is fine, so it failed" for obvious reasons.

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Hard to be entirely clear from the drone footage, but it looks like certainly 2, possibly 3 drones hit against the armoured hull, and one managed to hit a breach in the side from a previous hit where the interior of the ship was visible. 

There are at least 2 distinct explosions shown, one of which has a large secondary explosion a few seconds later. 4 explosions are shown in total, but it's not clear whether any of them are shown repeatedly / from other angles.

But as with the previous two drone sinking, it looks like they once again managed to get a drone to hit an already damaged point and detonate behind the armour, which proved fatal to the ship the last two times (although the Segei Kotov is three times the displacement of tyre previous corvette sunk, the Ivanovets).

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1 hour ago, zinz said:

https://mastodon.social/@ragnarbjartur@masto.ai/112041991563168020

Well as reported by Ukraine. But Russian advances are not cheap for the Russians. 

Yeah, but also record deliveries of equipment. 

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
"This has led to significant increases in production output. For example, Russia is delivering approximately 1,500 tanks to its forces per year along with approximately 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles of various types."

Generally expected to match the loss rates this year.

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Western resolve in opposing/appeasing putin is starting to bear its first fruits. 

Quote

China is removing the term “peaceful” in reference to the People’s Republic’s desired reunification with Taiwan.

China will “resolutely advance the cause of China’s reunification,” said Premier Li Qiang’s first work report.

In earlier reports there was talk of “peaceful reunification”.

 

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