cesmonkey Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 https://t.me/osirskiy/602 Quote SYRSKY ✔ The situation in the area of the operation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine remains difficult. The enemy continues active offensive actions in many directions of the front line. The situation is particularly tense in the Avdiyiv and Zaporizhzhia directions, where Russian assault units are trying to break through the defenses of our troops and capture the settlements of Tonenke, Orlivka, Semenivka, Berdychi, Krasnohorivka. Fierce fighting continues in the areas of Verbove and Robotine, over which the enemy is trying to regain control. I started my work in the area of hostilities with the Donetsk Technical University, in the units that hold the defense in the Avdiyiv direction. The success of any battle depends on the quality of planning and how successfully the commander's plan is implemented by his subordinates. This is primarily determined by the experience and skill of the commander and commanders, the ability to correctly assess the situation and make adequate and timely decisions. At the level of battalion, company and platoon commanders, the main thing is to ensure the practical implementation of these decisions, to hold positions and destroy the enemy by fire of all means. During the work, some commanders were found to have certain miscalculations in mastering the situation and assessing the enemy, which directly affected the stability of the defense in certain areas. I took all measures to correct the situation on the spot, with the allocation of an additional resource of ammunition and material means, as well as the necessary reserves. I would like to note the courage, resilience and heroism of the servicemen of the 3rd assault brigade and 25th separate airborne brigades. With bold and decisive actions, they defeated the enemy who broke through to the outskirts of Orlivka. I continue to work, together to Victory! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 11 th! This is nuts. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 (edited) 1 hour ago, Kinophile said: 11 th! I doubt this is real number. Now we have next: - two confirmed Su-35 and A-50U from Russian side - the video of falling down unknown combat aircraft near Dyakove (presumably Su-34, this is mathes with COSPAS information about eject signal from this area - Su-35 was shot down significantly west from this place) - COSPAS ejection marks on the map allegedly from three Su-34 (including the one, mentioning above) - bad quality of something falling down on the screen of some SAM (StarStreak?) claimed as Su-34 - just a claims of shot down jets. So, we have 3 100 % confirmed, 2 with high probability confirmed, 2 allegedly confirmed by COSPAS marks and rest 4 just unverified claims Edited February 29 by Haiduk 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 (edited) https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1763116800537997387.html "So Russia recently released footage of the targeting of Ukrainian Cars across the border aswell as Lancet, Sahed and Tornado-S footage. I have cut it to take out the gore footage and only show the Lancet and other hits. Here is the thread So lets start: AS-90(known) 2S1 Gvozdika Damaged Training Ground Hit T-64BV Damaged Group of T-72 Barely Damaged AN/TPQ-50 Destroyed BREM-1 ARV Destroyed BMP-1 Damaged T-64 Destroyed T-64 Damaged Bradley? Destroyed Unknown Vehicle Destroyed Leopard 2A6? Hit Buk-M1/M2 Destroyed BTR-80? Damaged? Unknown SAM Destroyed(claimed patriot) BMP-1 Damaged BM-27 Uragan/Bureviy Destroyed Msta-B Howitzer Damaged Leopard 2A5(known) Destroyed Destruction of a Ukrainian RM-70 Vampire MLRS Sahed and Iskander-M strikes on Infrastructure and Targets." Edited February 29 by The_MonkeyKing 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 2 hours ago, Kinophile said: 11 th! This is nuts. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 56 minutes ago, Haiduk said: we have 3 100 % confirmed, 2 with high probability confirmed, 2 allegedly confirmed by COSPAS marks and rest 4 just unverified claims Thanks for keeping us grounded. It will be interesting to see if can get confirmation of accurate numbers. I guess without pilots ejecting we can't rely on COSPAS and if they go into the sea no satellite proof possible. Just maybe in months time obituaries of the pilots if they pop up on social media. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 It is important to be skeptical of Ukrainian numbers, but I would be curious why now, specifically, these announcements are made (and from official Ukrainian accounts). Is it to improve morale after the continued Kab and Fab bombardment? Curious. Usually Ukraine stayed somewhat conservative when it comes to "special assets" (ships, airframes) or provides footage. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 (edited) 5 hours ago, cesmonkey said: I suppose this is what Rybar was talking about here? It is the incident but Rybar either has wrong info or decides to add flavor himself. No 4 boats were destroyed. 1 came under fire, while on shore, with a loss of 6 on board. Edited February 29 by Kraft 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 On 2/27/2024 at 10:22 PM, Harmon Rabb said: Some of the strongest language I have heard from Israel directed at Russia so far. I think they know who's acting behind the curtains of the whole Gaza tragedy... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Carolus said: It is important to be skeptical of Ukrainian numbers, but I would be curious why now, specifically, these announcements are made (and from official Ukrainian accounts). Is it to improve morale after the continued Kab and Fab bombardment? Curious. Usually Ukraine stayed somewhat conservative when it comes to "special assets" (ships, airframes) or provides footage. Usually most are 'really' confirmed by locals with smartphones anyway. As for the claims, I have lost track, but several of the claimed planes have been confirmed with satelite crash sites, locals, fighterbomber wishing eternal flight, and lost transponders, but I have no Overview how many of the claimed that is and I suspect there will be 1-2 added in. Theres definitively an uptick in losses though, probably due to a risker employment of AA to pave the way for F-16 as others have stated. Edited February 29 by Kraft 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 24 minutes ago, Kraft said: probably due to a risker employment of AA Or the RuAF has increased the number of (risky) missions. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinz Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Does someone have a good statistic of Russias missile camping? There were only a couple big strikes this winter. Not like last year with a strike every half a week. So maybe Ukraine doesn't need to have all their air defense assets around Kiev right now. That might also explain why the shoot downs only started now 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Quote According to data obtained by the Information Resistance group at the VOT of the Kherson region, including in the Kakhovsky district, due to the low percentage of local residents who received Russian passports, the occupation administration granted permission to vote in the Russian presidential elections using a Ukrainian passport. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 hour ago, Butschi said: Or the RuAF has increased the number of (risky) missions. Or, more likely, both. As I just pointed out, the Russians have long since held fixed wing aircraft from the frontlines as a matter of routine. Sure, they strike this or that, but it's always been this or that. It seems that various problems with using mass (artillery, infantry, and armor) they've decided they MUST put their precious aircraft at risk. More importantly, they are risking their better aircraft. For a few months this gamble seemed to help with Russian ground operations. As generally happens when there's success, Russia has attempted to "scale up" dropping dumb bombs. At some point what used to be an occasional support tactic has become the primary means of breaking up Ukrainian positions in key areas. It took a while for Ukraine to figure out how to counter this, but it does appear they have come up with at least a partial solution. As I pointed out a couple of days ago, these losses are not only expensive for Russia, but also effectively irreplaceable for this war. Ukraine's Airforce hinted at the way this dynamic goes... "we can keep playing this game". For sure Russia can not if they don't change something for the better. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 (edited) 3 hours ago, Carolus said: Usually Ukraine stayed somewhat conservative when it comes to "special assets" (ships, airframes) or provides footage. You can recall dozens Russian planes and choppers, which were "shot down" in first several months. Indeed these were either "morale boosting", or mistaken reports (target just dissapeared from radars for many reasons, but crew reported about downing), or it could be E95M aerial target jet drone, which Russia actively used during first months as false targets and our radar crews could think they lock on real aircraft or cruise missile and then to report about downing, or it could by cruise missiles. So, from there is derived "340 destroyed planes", but in real in five times less. Edited February 29 by Haiduk 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: As I pointed out a couple of days ago, these losses are not only expensive for Russia, but also effectively irreplaceable for this war. Replaceability isn't necessarily a requirement in a war, though, right? I mean let's look at the cold war, for instance. No one had any illusions that all the equipment built up over years would last longer than a few weeks and the was no chance to produce replacements "in real-time". So generally, irreplaceable losses can be acceptable if the gains outweigh the losses. Planes falling from the skies are very visible, Soldiers getting killed on the receiving end much less so, so we may not know the actual calculus here. Irrespective of the possible gain, the question is if the Russians are willing to risk significantly reducing their precious air force over something that started out as a "Special Military Operation"... The comparison with the cold war is a bit flawed because, well this isn't a superpower plus NATO on the other side. So if this is real it proves, again, that the war is important enough for Putin to risk the embarrassment of losing a substantial part of the air force. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Number of Russian airstrikes from 1st of Feb to 28th of Feb 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 There are no pidors in Robotyne. We knocked them out from positions lower the village, close to Novoprokopivka. It seems that they lost a desire to assault. UKR troops recaptured strongpoint south from Robotyne. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 3 hours ago, Butschi said: Replaceability isn't necessarily a requirement in a war, though, right? If X is important for winning the war, then losing X means you're less likely to win. So yeah, irreconcilability matters even if we don't yet know how much You are also missing a critical point here. In Russia's mind the Ukraine operation is a BATTLE in a larger WAR with the West. Putin's regime believes, to its core, that losing Ukraine means losing that larger war with the West. So what happens if does the classic "won the battle, lost the war" outcome? Think about it this way. Russia has used its military capacity to achieve various goals in its continuation of the Cold War. It's capacity is already shockingly reduced, which means its long term options for winning Cold War 2.0 are also reduced. Aircraft are arguably the most important capability that Russia has to flex its muscles. It is no accident that when Putin wants to ratchet up pressure he has a bunch of aircraft take to the skies to do various shows of force (buzzing US warships, getting idiotically close to NATO patrol aircraft, etc.). Aircraft were also critical in Russia's role in saving Assad in Syria. So ask yourself... if after this war with Ukraine is concluded, what capacity will it have to continue Cold War 2.0? Because if it is a biplane with a pilot yelling in broken English "NATO go home!" then the losses encountered now matter. A lot. 3 hours ago, Butschi said: Irrespective of the possible gain, the question is if the Russians are willing to risk significantly reducing their precious air force over something that started out as a "Special Military Operation"... The comparison with the cold war is a bit flawed because, well this isn't a superpower plus NATO on the other side. So if this is real it proves, again, that the war is important enough for Putin to risk the embarrassment of losing a substantial part of the air force. Yes, everything about this is consistent with everything since the West first learned of the planning for this war. Putin is going "all in" because, in his view, losing this battle means he's lost Cold War 2.0. It doesn't matter how wrong headed this is, it is his viewpoint and he's obviously sticking to it. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 13 minutes ago, Zeleban said: dumbest he ever heard eh? Guess he doesn't listen to his own broadcasts. 16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 10 minutes ago, Zeleban said: Would have been nice for Tucker to have mentioned that to Herr Putler when he "interviewed" him. This is interesting, though. The blowback from Tucker's horrible performance and the overt implications of what he did seems to be significant enough that he's willing to throw Putin under the bus to salvage his own reputation. "Yes I was there when that guy was beating up a stranger's kid. Yes I did nothing and even chuckled a few times. But now that you mention it, I think the guy was a real dink". Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Episodes of clearing the village of Krasnohorivka (Avdiiv direction) from the Russians The soldiers of the 3rd company of the 1st assault battalion and the 2nd company of the 2nd assault battalion of the 3rd OShBr are working 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Quote https://archive.is/Np3d1 Putin warns of wider conflict over Ukraine Russian president makes most explicit threat to use nuclear weapons since full-scale invasion Putins little SMO is going so well he is back to rattling his magical nuclear stick. Link is to a FT.com archive site that should work. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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