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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

Please remind me when did the Republicans took the house. If I’m not mistaken, Biden’s admin had almost a year where they could have done almost anything they wanted in terms of aid… but they didn’t.

The slow-rolling of useful equipment, and refusal to give aid in quantity (cluster shells that we aren’t using, old ATACMS, all of the old Bradleys, F16s with volunteer pilots, a cruise missile for every missile that caused a civilian death etc.)… that’s entirely on the executive branch. We’ve all been complaining about this since the beginning of this war.

Biden gave BILLIONS AND BILLIONS in aid.  They didn't give as much or as fast as we wanted, speaking for most folks on this forum, but it was still a huge amount.  Now the GOP is blocking aid completely, meaning GIVING ZERO.  Do you even hear yourself?  Biden is trying to give MORE AID.  the GOP is blocking it.  Once again, you make zero sense.  Once again, you've gotten worked up on some ridiculous right wing bizarro world talking point and don't even stop to see if it evens makes the most basic sense.

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34 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Once again, you've gotten worked up on some ridiculous right wing bizarro world talking point and don't even stop to see if it evens makes the most basic sense.

He's frustrated, understandably.  No reason to accuse him of right-wing talking points as if he is spouting Tuckerisms. 

This thread tends to get way over dramatic too often.

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I think it's a mistake to label it as the GOP blocking it. I would say it's the more like MAGA's outside influence blocking it, but even that's an oversimplification. Perhaps I'm repeating what's already been said, but with the tiny GOP majority every GOP speaker is afraid of being ousted by one outspoken House member, as McCarthy was. In effect the GOP house is just as weak, if not weaker than the Biden Administration. 

Anyway, it looks as if Matt Gaetz, who called for Mcarthy's removal might be joining George Santos on being booted from Congress. 

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6 hours ago, Carolus said:

While I am not in favor of it, I can understand the reasoning well.

The European arms industry is structured completely differently than the American one.  

They cannot be ordered to increase production, they rely entirely on orders. 

Why not both? Ukraine needs shells now, no matter the source. The fact that U.S aid is drying up, including U.S placed orders for artillery shells worldwide only underscores that Europe needs to step in and provide the funding for all sources of artillery shells to Ukraine.

Edited by FancyCat
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2 hours ago, Holien said:

Ahhh the beauty of hindsight...

Do you realise how difficult it is to do stuff in government and you are blaming them for not doing it all in one year....

What a joke....

I would argue it is more a result of the overly cautious escalation management, which threw a pebble while russia was going all in and showed little to no signs of serious backing off.

 

 

Edited by Kraft
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The problem is that the escalation management is not getting better. It _still_ looks like West is more concerned with not angering Russia too much, while Russia is openly calling this total war with West and Ukraine is getting weaker.

Anyway.

I wonder how Navalny's death impacts things. The idea of Putin going down in a coup and Navalny replacing him as West friendly Czar, who would likely be Putin but softer - maybe stopped the war in exchange for removed sanctions but definitely didn't surrender any land back, seems to go out of the window.

It looks that letting Russia win or the dreaded "Russia in free fall" are really really the only two ways how this can end now.

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29 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

The problem is that the escalation management is not getting better. It _still_ looks like West is more concerned with not angering Russia too much, while Russia is openly calling this total war with West and Ukraine is getting weaker.

Anyway.

I wonder how Navalny's death impacts things. The idea of Putin going down in a coup and Navalny replacing him as West friendly Czar, who would likely be Putin but softer - maybe stopped the war in exchange for removed sanctions but definitely didn't surrender any land back, seems to go out of the window.

It looks that letting Russia win or the dreaded "Russia in free fall" are really really the only two ways how this can end now.

Narp. There's a long way to go before Russia "wins". A long, long way, and that's a very subjective, malleable endpoint. I don't see how Russia can have won if doesn't dominate the Black Sea and UKR is handling that fight just fine with little foreign aid.

Edited by Kinophile
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16 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Narp. There's a long way to go before Russia "wins". A long, long way, and that's a very subjective, malleable endpoint. I don't see how Russia can have won if doesn't dominate the Black Sea and UKR is handling that fight just fine with little foreign aid.

That just puts us on the "Russia in freefall" path because I think any hopes of clean Russian coups died with Prig and Navalny.

which I am ok with, but lots of people were saying its bad.

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6 hours ago, Kraft said:

What a squealing little worm.

I know LotR is more popular here (for good reasons) but he reminds me of that rat of Ronald Weasely who turned out to be a cowardly traitor

I believe you are misremembering. Ron Weasley had a hand-me-down familiar that was a rat named Scabbers. It turned out that was a wizard named Pettigrew who gave the location of Harry Potter’s parents to Voldemort who killed them.

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1 hour ago, Sequoia said:

I think it's a mistake to label it as the GOP blocking it. I would say it's the more like MAGA's outside influence blocking it, but even that's an oversimplification. Perhaps I'm repeating what's already been said, but with the tiny GOP majority every GOP speaker is afraid of being ousted by one outspoken House member, as McCarthy was. In effect the GOP house is just as weak, if not weaker than the Biden Administration. 

Anyway, it looks as if Matt Gaetz, who called for Mcarthy's removal might be joining George Santos on being booted from Congress. 

Completely not true.  Just a few GOPers could simply vote to pass the aid.  Last I checked 6 out of ~218 GOPers is all it takes.  Might make folks feel better to blame it on the crazies, but then why don't the allegedly sane major of GOPers simply vote to do the right thing?   The reality is that they vote as a block and simply refuse to do the right thing.

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1 hour ago, sburke said:

He's frustrated, understandably.  No reason to accuse him of right-wing talking points as if he is spouting Tuckerisms. 

This thread tends to get way over dramatic too often.

I'm confused.  Where else would someone get something this stupid?  I used to work w a guy who would come in every day spouting whatever nonsense he heard on rightwing radio on his drive, only to be devastated, continually by his coworkers who simply fact checked his nonsense.  Kimbosbread does this all the time.  Here, he triumphantly announces that the aid not happening is all the fault of the guy trying to actually get the aid instead of the people holding the aid hostage.  

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1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

Completely not true.  Just a few GOPers could simply vote to pass the aid.  Last I checked 6 out of ~218 GOPers is all it takes.  Might make folks feel better to blame it on the crazies, but then why don't the allegedly sane major of GOPers simply vote to do the right thing?   The reality is that they vote as a block and simply refuse to do the right thing.

It has to be brought to a vote first though.   I think it is time for another "How does our gov't work" primer from @billbindc

 

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C

25 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Completely not true.  Just a few GOPers could simply vote to pass the aid.  Last I checked 6 out of ~218 GOPers is all it takes.  Might make folks feel better to blame it on the crazies, but then why don't the allegedly sane major of GOPers simply vote to do the right thing?   The reality is that they vote as a block and simply refuse to do the right thing.

This is an oversimplified answer but, it's because the Speaker won't let the vote come to the floor. Yes, there are ways it can be forced, but those GOPers who did force it would be severely punished by the party for not toeing the line.. I agree that's more than a bit cowardly, BUT, I think it the GOPers supporting the aid are counting on the speaker letting it come to a floor vote relatively soon (and I think they're right).  There's more than a little theatre going on here. 

 

p.s. Ninja's by Sburke 

Edited by Sequoia
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Reportedly another field road was cut in the north. Corridor now has ca. 1,5 kms, part of which is contested. On better side, there are some news that Ukrainian artillery started to work more heavily and some reinforcements may counterattack in the north (among others, some subunits of 1st Armoured Brigade are supposedly in vicinity).

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6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Yeah, I know how it works.  And instead of working to electing a sane speaker they took some crazy christo-taliban in a suit.

I agree M. Johnson is a poor representative of and for the US public. I also think he owes his current speakership to the  Freedom (for only people like us) Caucus. But deep down, I have a hunch he and many like him feel about the Orange one like that line in the Night Moves- that is "I used her, she used me and neither one cared," and will dump him and do the right thing on Ukraine once he becomes irrelevant, which I'm thinking may be well before the November election. Johnson  has to appear just reluctant enough to for now keep his job (though like McCarthy he'll probably lose it anyway) .

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10 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

I agree M. Johnson is a poor representative of and for the US public. I also think he owes his current speakership to the  Freedom (for only people like us) Caucus. But deep down, I have a hunch he and many like him feel about the Orange one like that line in the Night Moves- that is "I used her, she used me and neither one cared," and will dump him and do the right thing on Ukraine once he becomes irrelevant, which I'm thinking may be well before the November election. Johnson  has to appear just reluctant enough to for now keep his job (though like McCarthy he'll probably lose it anyway) .

Well said.  Sorry for my nasty tone.  I will blame the shingles vax I got this morning, which seems to have me rather touchy.  I stand behind the theme of I said but do wish I had said it much more diplomatically.

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I feel the frustration expressed today. When you look back the opportunities through mid-2022 until now it is pretty easy to get upset at the seeming lack of urgency to outright defeat the russian invasion on the battlefield, likely out of an overabundance of caution. 
 

This being said, here we are, and it could have gone so much worse. The only thing that matters is what we do next. 

Edited by Raptor341
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3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Well said.  Sorry for my nasty tone.  I will blame the shingles vax I got this morning, which seems to have me rather touchy.  I stand behind the theme of I said but do wish I had said it much more diplomatically.

You also watch the news. That's enough to make anyone touchy these days.

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