How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Could be worse...Florida...

Fair. After W.T. Sherman's dose of "creative destruction' Georgia had its advantages.

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Could be worse...Florida...

You say that, but the Black Sea will have some epic wreck diving after the war. I know divers who are frothing at the loins at the thought of diving the Moscow (which is quite shallow).

[Astrophel]

4 hours ago, billbindc said:

1. The question of aid will be concluded long before the election in November. The White House is already offering pretty much what Republicans want on the border in order to get aid to Israel and Ukraine. The Senate is pretty united on supporting that. Does the House GOP go along? It too would largely support aid but Speaker Johnson lives on a knife edge (the GOP margin is *2* votes) and has to get around the extremists who will try to over throw him when/if he goes for it. So...call it a toss up but we'll know which way it's going in the next four weeks at most. 

 

It would be interesting to hear your take on what happens assuming Haley stays in the race after tomorrow's primary in New Hampshire.  Haley is well positioned to take the middle ground against two very old men, both of whom look increasing unfit on occasion.   Haley looks fit enough to do the job, whichever side you are on.  Haley has stated very clearly the case on several occasions for supporting Ukraine and recognises the dangers of Putin winning.  She is more hawkish than Biden and that will appeal to many on both sides who think Biden has been guilty of too little too late when it comes to supplying Ukraine.

To beat Trump she will have to find the schisms in the republican party and convince her South Carolina voters that she and not Trump has the most chance of beating Biden.   Ukraine should be a part of this if she can rally enough votes in the House to help push through some bipartisan measures on the budget and immigration, for example.  On her record she seems flexible enough to move her political stance at the appropriate moment.  She now has to pull votes from Trump one way or another and build a base with those republicans who despise Trump and his politics and there are still many who do.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

You say that, but the Black Sea will have some epic wreck diving after the war. I know divers who are frothing at the loins at the thought of diving the Moscow (which is quite shallow).

If this were a country other than Russia I'd expect a body and munitions recovery operation.  But this is Russia, so I expect wrecks like the Moskva will remain a little too "interesting" for many divers.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Astrophel said:

It would be interesting to hear your take on what happens assuming Haley stays in the race after tomorrow's primary in New Hampshire.  Haley is well positioned to take the middle ground against two very old men, both of whom look increasing unfit on occasion.   Haley looks fit enough to do the job, whichever side you are on.  Haley has stated very clearly the case on several occasions for supporting Ukraine and recognises the dangers of Putin winning.  She is more hawkish than Biden and that will appeal to many on both sides who think Biden has been guilty of too little too late when it comes to supplying Ukraine.

To beat Trump she will have to find the schisms in the republican party and convince her South Carolina voters that she and not Trump has the most chance of beating Biden.   Ukraine should be a part of this if she can rally enough votes in the House to help push through some bipartisan measures on the budget and immigration, for example.  On her record she seems flexible enough to move her political stance at the appropriate moment.  She now has to pull votes from Trump one way or another and build a base with those republicans who despise Trump and his politics and there are still many who do.

The problem is our primary system often favors candidates that have energetic minority support.  Trump can count on a cult-like following that Haley doesn't have, so most pundits predict Trump will be the Republican nominee even though there are indications that more Republicans favor Haley over Trump.  All indications are that in the general vote Haley would do better than Trump against Biden.

The most likely scenario is that Trump becomes the nominee and goes up against Biden in the general election.

Steve

[sburke]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The most likely scenario is that Trump becomes the nominee and goes up against Biden in the general election.

Steve

and i'm stocking up on booze.

[Blazing 88's]

A little more info on that Bradley vs T90 scrum (props to the original poster, 'MarkSheppard' on another forum):

~This Bradley is mounting a drone jammer as shown in this pic he provided.~

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/...15646653948411

Stepove, Avdiivka, a Bradley IFV of the 47th Brigade is repelling another russian assault. Notice the newly developed anti drone jammer Cupol (Купол - Dome) on the rear top of the turret of this Bradley ifv. ZSU started using this system widle. Average range of jamming from 40-80 meters.

 

Mark's comment.
Apparently the average range of this type of jammer that AFU is using widely is 40 to 80 meters.

It doesn't stop drones from hovering 200-400 meters away and taking video of you with zoom lens; but it does mitigate a little bit of the suicide FPV drone threat...

With one caveat..
...you've got to be moving. A jamming range of 40-50m means that if you're stationary; even if you jam a suicide FPV drone in it's attack dive, the ballistics of the drone will mean that it has a good chance of hitting you....

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Astrophel said:

It would be interesting to hear your take on what happens assuming Haley stays in the race after tomorrow's primary in New Hampshire.  Haley is well positioned to take the middle ground against two very old men, both of whom look increasing unfit on occasion.   Haley looks fit enough to do the job, whichever side you are on.  Haley has stated very clearly the case on several occasions for supporting Ukraine and recognises the dangers of Putin winning.  She is more hawkish than Biden and that will appeal to many on both sides who think Biden has been guilty of too little too late when it comes to supplying Ukraine.

To beat Trump she will have to find the schisms in the republican party and convince her South Carolina voters that she and not Trump has the most chance of beating Biden.   Ukraine should be a part of this if she can rally enough votes in the House to help push through some bipartisan measures on the budget and immigration, for example.  On her record she seems flexible enough to move her political stance at the appropriate moment.  She now has to pull votes from Trump one way or another and build a base with those republicans who despise Trump and his politics and there are still many who do.

85% chance Haley loses by 15% or so in NH and will be out after she then loses in SC. 

14% chance she loses by single digits and then loses by double digits in SC. 

1% chance she loses by single digits/barely wins NH and then carries that momentum through SC. After that, who knows? 

It is very important to remember that Haley is middle ground...for the GOP. Her positions on abortion, spending, Social Security, etc is fairly far right relative to the general voting public. And her problem is that she's not in an election between her, Biden and Trump. She's in a GOP primary dominated by the 40% or so of its pro-authoritarian electorate. She's also not an elected official in any capacity. She has no ability to rally any votes in Congress and she has no political pull on any of them (as Trump does with that above mentioned 40%). 

In the end, politicians win by persuasion. Have we seen any evidence of Haley persuading anybody? Any fired up crowds? No and we haven't seen it for a while. Trump has his rallies that are mostly carnivals for the most hard core MAGA folks but you have to go back to early Obama to see a crowd being inspired in a positive way. That's what a game changer looks like. She ain't it.

[FancyCat]

Quote

Ukraine’s ammo shortage becoming more difficult by the day. Around Bakhmut an M109 position we visited only got smoke rounds. The division commander says the current ratio is 10:1 in favor of the Russians. Still Ukrainian troops are holding on.

A pox on the Republican Party. Cannot believe we are back to this, how joyful for our enemies to know America is unreliable and unable to muster the bare minimum to ensure Ukraine stays in the fight. Europe needs to start their ammo production and step into some bigger shoes. 

 

 

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

The division commander says the current ratio is 10:1 in favor of the Russians. Still Ukrainian troops are holding on.

Thanks to FPV, which we are gathering for donations and at last FPVs, ordered by the state program more and more are coming to the troops. Maybe you payed attention how few videos of artillery hits on enemy targets, except Excaliburs maybe in comparison with 2022 and 2023. Many of artillery work now FPVs took on itself. 

But FPV can't completely substitute artillery. Neither for position demolishing, nor for long-range counter-battrery fire. 

I also worry about missiles for HIMARS. If US aid stop, EU can't substitute it like artillery shells. Unless EU will buy HIMARS missiles in USA and than hand over them to Ukraine. 

Edited January 22 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Astrophel said:

It would be interesting to hear your take on what happens assuming Haley stays in the race after tomorrow's primary in New Hampshire.  Haley is well positioned to take the middle ground against two very old men, both of whom look increasing unfit on occasion.   Haley looks fit enough to do the job, whichever side you are on.  Haley has stated very clearly the case on several occasions for supporting Ukraine and recognises the dangers of Putin winning.  She is more hawkish than Biden and that will appeal to many on both sides who think Biden has been guilty of too little too late when it comes to supplying Ukraine.

To beat Trump she will have to find the schisms in the republican party and convince her South Carolina voters that she and not Trump has the most chance of beating Biden.   Ukraine should be a part of this if she can rally enough votes in the House to help push through some bipartisan measures on the budget and immigration, for example.  On her record she seems flexible enough to move her political stance at the appropriate moment.  She now has to pull votes from Trump one way or another and build a base with those republicans who despise Trump and his politics and there are still many who do.

 

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

85% chance Haley loses by 15% or so in NH and will be out after she then loses in SC. 

14% chance she loses by single digits and then loses by double digits in SC. 

1% chance she loses by single digits/barely wins NH and then carries that momentum through SC. After that, who knows? 

It is very important to remember that Haley is middle ground...for the GOP. Her positions on abortion, spending, Social Security, etc is fairly far right relative to the general voting public. And her problem is that she's not in an election between her, Biden and Trump. She's in a GOP primary dominated by the 40% or so of its pro-authoritarian electorate. She's also not an elected official in any capacity. She has no ability to rally any votes in Congress and she has no political pull on any of them (as Trump does with that above mentioned 40%). 

In the end, politicians win by persuasion. Have we seen any evidence of Haley persuading anybody? Any fired up crowds? No and we haven't seen it for a while. Trump has his rallies that are mostly carnivals for the most hard core MAGA folks but you have to go back to early Obama to see a crowd being inspired in a positive way. That's what a game changer looks like. She ain't it.

The only thing that will prevent trump and Biden from being the nominees, and the names on the ballot in November, is their own health. So look at whatever actuarial table you prefer, and those are the odds. I do mean health though, if either one had a fall that required major orthopedic surgery or some similar event I think he would be toast instantly. Going to be a fun year. Indeed Hailey may limp campaign along for months longer than she otherwise would simply hoping to get lucky.Going to be a fun year.

Their are two extra twists, if either party replaced their current de-facto nominee the odds of that party winning go UP, assuming they have the sense to pick someone inoffensively competent like a swing state governor who doesn't make enemies for fun. Nikki haley mets that qualification in my opinion, btw. The second twist is that if this happened on the the Republican side that persons position on Ukraine would be a total crapshoot.

Edited January 22 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

Russia and Ukarine exchanged with enough sharp messages. Russia hinted that this war will never stop and if it frozen, it anyway will start again through 5 or 50 years until Russia solve main problem - existance of Ukraine itself.      

Very likely as a response on this, today In the Day of Unity president Zelenskiy signed a dercee about "Lands of Russia, historically settled by Ukrainians" and gave instructions to Cabinet of Ministers to develop a plan of saving Ukrainian identity on these lands. Of course, this is more declarative act, but this is hidden warning about in the case of Russia collapse, Ukraine can take these regions under own "protectorate"

Here the map which lands Zelenskiy meant. In this game can play two. Alas, except these land he didn't include so called "Green Wedge Republic" - Far East, which was settled by Ukrainians at the beginning of 20th century - both exiles and free colonizers, who came there to get a free land. As far as in 30th years of 20th century this region kept own UKR identity. But well, maybe we can make a deal with Japan )   

 

And here full text of Russian message, issued through Dmitriy Medvdev. Now he plays a role of Zhyrinovskiy, who always have reputation of "joker", but make public all what in real was in minds of Kremlin officials, but they can't say this. But unlike Zhyrinovskiy, Medvedev holds a duty of chairman deputy of National Securiy Council

Here is translation:

The existence of Ukraine is deadly dangerous for Ukrainians themselves. I meant not only current state, banderites political regime. I tell about any, completely any Ukraine

Why?

Avaliability of sovereign state on historical Russian territories now will be continous cause for warfare renewal. Too late. Whoever stands at the helm of this carcinoma state under name Ukariane, this will not add legitimacy of his ruling and legal viability of his "country". Thus, a probability of new clash will keep uncertainly long time. Almost always. More, its exists 100 % probability of new conflict whatever papers about security assurances sign West with a puppet Kievan regime. This conflict will not prevent neither EU association, nor even membership of this artifical country in NATO. This can happen and through 10, and through 50 years.

This is why existence of Ukraine is fatal for Ukrainians. They are practical people after all. No matter how they now whish a death to Russians. No matter how they now hate Russian leaders. No matter how they now aspire EU and NATO membership. Choosing between ethernal war and inevitable death and a life, most of Ukrainisn (of course, except minimal number of scumbag nationalists) will chose a life after all. They will understand, that a life in large common state, which they now not so much like is anyway better, than a death. Their death and death of their loved ones. And more that Ukrainians will realize this, than better.

Now on this message Russian powerful Psy Ops agianst mobilization and continue of resistance is built. "Enough hopeless assaults of tree-plants! The West wants to continue a war to the last Ukrainian man! Zelenskiy is kiling our nation! Enough to make war! We must cease fire and to sit at negotiatiin table! To lve without occupied territories is much better than endless war and deaths!"

RUSSIA MUST BE DESINTEGRATED.    

[dan/california]

28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russia and Ukarine exchanged with enough sharp messages. Russia hinted that this war will never stop and if it frozen, it anyway will start again through 5 or 50 years until Russia solve main problem - existance of Ukraine itself.      

Very likely as a response on this, today In the Day of Unity president Zelenskiy signed a dercee about "Lands of Russia, historically settled by Ukrainians" and gave instructions to Cabinet of Ministers to develop a plan of saving Ukrainian identity on these lands. Of course, this is more declarative act, but this is hidden warning about in the case of Russia collapse, Ukraine can take these regions under own "protectorate"

Here the map which lands Zelenskiy meant. In this game can play two. Alas, except these land he didn't include so called "Green Wedge Republic" - Far East, which was settled by Ukrainians at the beginning of 20th century - both exiles and free colonizers, who came there to get a free land. As far as in 30th years of 20th century this region kept own UKR identity. But well, maybe we can make a deal with Japan )   

 

And here full text of Russian message, issued through Dmitriy Medvdev. Now he plays a role of Zhyrinovskiy, who always have reputation of "joker", but make public all what in real was in minds of Kremlin officials, but they can't say this. But unlike Zhyrinovskiy, Medvedev holds a duty of chairman deputy of National Securiy Council

Here is translation:

The existence of Ukraine is deadly dangerous for Ukrainians themselves. I meant not only current state, banderites political regime. I tell about any, completely any Ukraine

Why?

Avaliability of sovereign state on historical Russian territories now will be continous cause for warfare renewal. Too late. Whoever stands at the helm of this carcinoma state under name Ukariane, this will not add legitimacy of his ruling and legal viability of his "country". Thus, a probability of new clash will keep uncertainly long time. Almost always. More, its exists 100 % probability of new conflict whatever papers about security assurances sign West with a puppet Kievan regime. This conflict will not prevent neither EU association, nor even membership of this artifical country in NATO. This can happen and through 10, and through 50 years.

This is why existence of Ukraine is fatal for Ukrainians. They are practical people after all. No matter how they now whish a death to Russians. No matter how they now hate Russian leaders. No matter how they now aspire EU and NATO membership. Choosing between ethernal war and inevitable death and a life, most of Ukrainisn (of course, except minimal number of scumbag nationalists) will chose a life after all. They will understand, that a life in large common state, which they now not so much like is anyway better, than a death. Their death and death of their loved ones. And more that Ukrainians will realize this, than better.

Now on this message Russian powerful Psy Ops agianst mobilization and continue of resistance is built. "Enough hopeless assaults of tree-plants! The West wants to continue a war to the last Ukrainian man! Zelenskiy is kiling our nation! Enough to make war! We must cease fire and to sit at negotiatiin table! To lve without occupied territories is much better than endless war and deaths!"

RUSSIA MUST BE DESINTEGRATED.    

The man needs to have his inevitable window incident sooner, rather than later.

[dan/california]

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

RUSSIA MUST BE DESINTEGRATED.   

I would LOL if President Zelenskiy ended every speech with "Russia delenda est!"

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

I would LOL if President Zelenskiy ended every speech with "Russia delenda est!"

Why not, Putin basically does about Ukraine, the pr*ck.

Edited January 23 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

 

Slowly slowly, too goddamn slowly, but progressing. 

[Battlefront.com]

On 1/21/2024 at 12:06 AM, sburke said:

Ukraine's 'Blackjack' hackers breached 500 Russian military sites and caused chaos, says military intelligence (msn.com)

 

"Blackjack," a Ukrainian group of hackers with possible ties to the country's main spy agency, stole construction plans for over 500 Russian military sites, Newsweek reported.

The cyber operatives are believed to have links to the Security Service of Ukraine.

Ukraine's military-intelligence agency, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, or GUR, confirmed the successful operation on Friday.

GUR said a successful cyberattack had been launched against a Russian state enterprise overseeing all construction contracts for Russia's Ministry of Defence.

They wrote that operatives had transferred critical information about Russian military facilities that have already been completed, constructed, reconstructed, or planned for construction to the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine.

The Blackjack group amassed 1.2 terabytes of classified data on Vladimir Putin's military apparatus.

The data includes detailed maps of more than 500 Russian military bases across Russia and Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories.

The mined information includes crucial data about Russian Army headquarters, air-defense installations, and weapons arsenals.

The Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne said the group also took down seven servers and encrypted over 150 of the Russian contractor's employee computers.

I meant to comment on this from yesterday.

With Ukraine's increasing ability to strike distant Russian targets, having detailed information about what is being produced and where gives Ukraine a massive advantage.  No doubt it already has more potential targets than it can possibly effectively strike, however this information potentially allows them to be even more strategic about what it hits.  Want to put pressure on Kh-101 production?  Go through this massive amount of data and find the various components for making one, then figure which ones are the most disruptive to hit, then make a plan to hit them.  And not just generally, but which shop floor in a huge facility may be known now.

Let's hope this translates into even more cotton!

Steve

[Fenris]

Vision of Leo I + interview with the crew.  Has english subtitles if you turn them on.

 

[Battlefront.com]

On 1/20/2024 at 2:53 PM, Haiduk said:

Heh, I've missed this show %)

Scott Ritter makes a speech in front of "legions of Kadyrov's sardukars"

 

 

Holy crap!  I can't believe I missed this post.  Our old buddy Scott Ritter is making it clear he's a paid Russian shill.  That's fun!  What next, Douglas Macgregor showing up in Uralvagonzavod to cheer on Russian workers?

Steve

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crap!  I can't believe I missed this post.  Our old buddy Scott Ritter is making it clear he's a paid Russian shill.  That's fun!  What next, Douglas Macgregor showing up in Uralvagonzavod to cheer on Russian workers?

Steve

There is down the rabbit hole, and then there is where he has gone...

[Haiduk]

7:00 BOOM! BOOM! BOOM! I hate if somebody wake me up at the morning, early, than I shall to get up

Statistic of strike will be later. By the sounds beyond the window not less 8-10 explosions, two enough close. Likely one hit or detonation on the ground of shot down missile. Kharkiv, Shostka, Pavlohrad are under ballistic and Kh-22 strikes

[Haiduk]

Kharkiv - direct hit of S-300 missile at the multistorey building. One section is collapsed. Rescue works is ongoing

 

[poesel]

DW has a longer article (in German) about the situation in Baschkortostan.

TL;DR: will it topple Russia? - no, but it is a sign.

https://www.dw.com/de/was-es-mit-den-protesten-in-russland-auf-sich-hat/a-68026361

 

[Astrophel]

16 hours ago, billbindc said:

85% chance Haley loses by 15% or so in NH and will be out after she then loses in SC. 

14% chance she loses by single digits and then loses by double digits in SC. 

1% chance she loses by single digits/barely wins NH and then carries that momentum through SC. After that, who knows? 

It is very important to remember that Haley is middle ground...for the GOP. Her positions on abortion, spending, Social Security, etc is fairly far right relative to the general voting public. And her problem is that she's not in an election between her, Biden and Trump. She's in a GOP primary dominated by the 40% or so of its pro-authoritarian electorate. She's also not an elected official in any capacity. She has no ability to rally any votes in Congress and she has no political pull on any of them (as Trump does with that above mentioned 40%). 

In the end, politicians win by persuasion. Have we seen any evidence of Haley persuading anybody? Any fired up crowds? No and we haven't seen it for a while. Trump has his rallies that are mostly carnivals for the most hard core MAGA folks but you have to go back to early Obama to see a crowd being inspired in a positive way. That's what a game changer looks like. She ain't it.

Thanks for your inputs.  Your judgement is likely correct, more is the pity.  Haley has neither the charisma nor the connections to run as an independent or pull the republican party back to its senses.

The good news today is that Nato has agreed to buy artillery shells for Ukraine to the tune of $1 Billion.  Another gesture perhaps, signalling a direction rather than taking a firm lead.  Hopefully the US voters can make a wise choice and soon.

Edited January 23 by Astrophel