How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FlemFire]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So “war in a box” (copyright) is where we are at. Unfortunately, all of Ukraine is inside that box.  The big and highly cynical lesson for a lot of smaller nations after this war is “don’t be Ukraine”.  How they go about doing that will vary.

There is no need to wait for "After this war". Smaller nations do this every day and have done it every day for hundreds if not thousands of years. If you're in the sphere of influence of a major power, don't do things that piss off that power. Very simple math.

 

[fireship4]

Quote

If you're in the sphere of influence of a major power, don't do things that piss off that power. Very simple math.

"Exist" in this case.

Edited December 14, 2023 by fireship4

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Khalerick said:

There is no need to wait for "After this war". Smaller nations do this every day and have done it every day for hundreds if not thousands of years. If you're in the sphere of influence of a major power, don't do things that piss off that power. Very simple math.

 

Bosnia-Serbia 1914

Vietnam-US, Vietnam-China

Afghanistan- Anyone

Mongols - Everyone

I would argue that the math is never simple.

[dan/california]

28 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

A dozen nuclear armed small states..what would possibly go wrong?

Lets just say it feeds back to my own opinion of how much support Ukraine OUGHT to be getting.

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Lets just say it feeds back to my own opinion of how much support Ukraine OUGHT to be getting.

It is a fair point.  If we abandon Ukraine a whole lotta other nations will start opting out of the whole “international community” will protect me.

I honestly am at the point where I am not sure we can ever give them enough.  We might be at the “keep them able to hold the line” because offensive warfare might have just taken a smoke break.

[Jiggathebauce]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 in other ways.

Even better news, part of the package included a fairly low profile provision that prevents a President from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/lawmakers-stuffed-a-provision-into-the-pentagon-funding-bill-that-makes-it-all-but-impossible-for-trump-to-leave-nato/ar-AA1lvB2I
 

Our NATO allies can all sleep sounder knowing this is now law.  I know I will!

Steve

Wasn't this already something done in the wake of the trump administration leaving office?

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It is a fair point.  If we abandon Ukraine a whole lotta other nations will start opting out of the whole “international community” will protect me.

I honestly am at the point where I am not sure we can ever give them enough.  We might be at the “keep them able to hold the line” because offensive warfare might have just taken a smoke break.

Then we should be seen to be trying, rather hard. If nothing else they need enough support that holding the current lines against the Russians becomes almost routine, as opposed to a grinding slog.

[Letter from Prague]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I honestly am at the point where I am not sure we can ever give them enough.  We might be at the “keep them able to hold the line” because offensive warfare might have just taken a smoke break.

You say this, but then you complain when people say the war is over and Russia won (since it got territory, few millions of new slaves and destruction of rules-based world order for low cost of few tanks, few mobiks and ineffectual sanctions) 

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

You say this, but then you complain when people say the war is over and Russia won (since it got territory, few millions of new slaves and destruction of rules-based world order for low cost of few tanks, few mobiks and ineffectual sanctions) 

uh no, that isn't even close to what he is saying.

[FlemFire]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Bosnia-Serbia 1914

Vietnam-US, Vietnam-China

Afghanistan- Anyone

Mongols - Everyone

I would argue that the math is never simple.

 

WWI, a completely pointless war dragged out on emotions and unnecessary allegiances. The math was so simple on this one that even today people can't even understand how millions ended up dying over nothing. Afghanistan's existence was secondary, it was more an empty field in which global powers played to control a borderland. If anything, this demonstrates that all great powers will gladly bat smaller nations around like tennis balls. And the Mongols? Were the Mongols not explicitly clear in their intentions? Pray tell, if Mongol ambassadors stride into your little kingdom demanding submission, what was the smart move? Do you still clap for the bravery of those who resisted them? Or do you think wow, that was very, very stupid and got very many people killed? Not to be too apropos, but there were leaders who flaunted their power at the Mongols, and then when reality came to the fore they fled out and left their citizens to be butchered. Be careful of hitching your horse to an outcome-independent party, yeah?

 

And as you clearly understand, this rule of reality applies between superpowers just as well: there's a reason why the U.S. fought an entire, massive war in Vietnam yet did not step foot in North Vietnam. And did China's invasion of Vietnam fall out of the sky, or did it have to do with Vietnam involving itself in the domain of a Chinese ally? If you find yourself bordering a very powerful nation, then every foreign policy measure taken is going to have extra costs attached, tangible or otherwise. If the Chinese offer Mexico a trillion dollars to base fast strike capability in Juarez, do you think Mexico goes "Wow that's a great deal!" Or is there one big giant elephant sitting in the middle of the equation?

 

Speaking of the Chinese, they currently do not have to concern themselves with Russia. This is a nation explicitly building for war who has two key deficiencies: consistent food supply and a base of energy (oil) to use. Russia can provide both. Do you think putting Russia into China's sphere made this world safer?

 

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

You say this, but then you complain when people say the war is over and Russia won (since it got territory, few millions of new slaves and destruction of rules-based world order for low cost of few tanks, few mobiks and ineffectual sanctions) 

These are two separate issues:

- Offensive warfare may be impossible for just about everyone until this whole unmanned/precision thing gets worked out.  The character of warfare - all warfare- may have shifted to the point we are looking at Denial/Defensive primacy.

- Russia has not won by any stretch and I am frankly tired of trying to explain that.  If you agree great.  If not, well I guess we will have to disagree.

As to the "war being over", well clearly it is not.  But we may be looking at less-than-ideal endgames here.

And "a few tanks and mobiks"?!  It destroyed its pre-wartime force!  https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/russia-troop-losses-us-intelligence-assessment/index.html

Seriously, do we have a bunch of Russian fanbois here?!  Hey look what mighty Russia did at no cost!!  They globally isolated themselves, destroyed their modern military and are driving their economy into the loving arms of the Chinese. And took an extra 7% of Ukraine...it is all over...run away!!

The realities of warfare are kinda locking this thing up.  Now it may open up again with introduction of new technology, or maybe we are looking at deadlock.  None of that has anything to do with "How is Russia winning".

[poesel]

Short explanation why and how Orban did not block the start of the EU process for Ukraine: when the vote came, he left the room and the other 26 voted yes. So legally, everything is ok even though Orban didn't vote at all.

However, he has ample opportunity to block this process further down the line. But given the glacial speeds this process runs, he may be out of office by then. IIRC next vote is in 3 years in Hungary.

But there is another thing that has IMHO the biggest potential to delay Ukraine's EU membership: the EU will have to switch to a qualified majority vote for most of its process. Away from the unanimous vote style we have now. After the fun we had with Poland and have with Hungary, there won't be another two EEC countries joining the club while the rules are what they are now.
That reform will take a looooong time. Even though today is a happy day for Ukraine in this respect, I predict heavy frustration in the coming years.

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Khalerick said:

 

WWI, a completely pointless war dragged out on emotions and unnecessary allegiances. The math was so simple on this one that even today people can't even understand how millions ended up dying over nothing. Afghanistan's existence was secondary, it was more an empty field in which global powers played to control a borderland. If anything, this demonstrates that all great powers will gladly bat smaller nations around like tennis balls. And the Mongols? Were the Mongols not explicitly clear in their intentions? Pray tell, if Mongol ambassadors stride into your little kingdom demanding submission, what was the smart move? Do you still clap for the bravery of those who resisted them? Or do you think wow, that was very, very stupid and got very many people killed? Not to be too apropos, but there were leaders who flaunted their power at the Mongols, and then when reality came to the fore they fled out and left their citizens to be butchered. Be careful of hitching your horse to an outcome-independent party, yeah?

 

And as you clearly understand, this rule of reality applies between superpowers just as well: there's a reason why the U.S. fought an entire, massive war in Vietnam yet did not step foot in North Vietnam. And did China's invasion of Vietnam fall out of the sky, or did it have to do with Vietnam involving itself in the domain of a Chinese ally? If you find yourself bordering a very powerful nation, then every foreign policy measure taken is going to have extra costs attached, tangible or otherwise. If the Chinese offer Mexico a trillion dollars to base fast strike capability in Juarez, do you think Mexico goes "Wow that's a great deal!" Or is there one big giant elephant sitting in the middle of the equation?

 

Speaking of the Chinese, they currently do not have to concern themselves with Russia. This is a nation explicitly building for war who has two key deficiencies: consistent food supply and a base of energy (oil) to use. Russia can provide both. Do you think putting Russia into China's sphere made this world safer?

 

Wow that went on a journey.  My main point is I instantly push back when anyone says "simple math" when discussion global power dynamics.  There was nothing simple about how WW1 happened.  There was nothing simple about how Afghanistan got pulled into various empire games.  There is definitely nothing simple about the rise and fall of the Mongols.  Vietnam is about the least simple nation in that region.

And then we moved onto China...again not simple.  In fact what constitutes a "superpower" is also not simple as we have watched many empires with feet of clay rise and fall.

But for just simple counter example - The Baltics and now Finland.  Free to piss off Russia with abandon because they entered into a collective defence organization.  There are a myriad of strategies and ways a small nation can manage a relationship with a great power - "don't piss them off" is reductionist and narrow.  There is no "easy math out there".

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure it is good news.  Orban was smart to do this.  There's 1000 different ways this can play out over many years, but stopping the process from starting is binary (either it starts or it doesn't).  Holding up talks would put the spotlight and pressure on Orban RIGHT NOW, which is something politicians tend to avoid if there's something they can do later on to achieve the same goal.

Since Orban is mortal and (still) an elected head of state, he might not even be around when the final decisions need to be made.

Steve

Curiously, he was given 10 bln euro bribe several days ago from various funds, frozen previously due to corruption practices. Today leaders all agreed that he will "disappear" from the floor and voting will take place in his absence; idea was reportedly Scholz's or Michelle. Thus he can stay clean, cry "they tricked us!" (but not too convincingly...) while unblocking UA access. Just another day in Brussels.

Do not get fooled "we don't talk with Orban" either; it's theatre. He is veteran of this place, knows every corner and they will miss him greatly one day, cause every dirty job can be given to/ pushed on him if necesary. Additionaly, he is popular in Hotel Rooms due to knowing awful lot of dirty jokes.

Also Georgia come in. That will be fun.

[FlemFire]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Wow that went on a journey.  My main point is I instantly push back when anyone says "simple math" when discussion global power dynamics.  There was nothing simple about how WW1 happened.  There was nothing simple about how Afghanistan got pulled into various empire games.  There is definitely nothing simple about the rise and fall of the Mongols.  Vietnam is about the least simple nation in that region.

And then we moved onto China...again not simple.  In fact what constitutes a "superpower" is also not simple as we have watched many empires with feet of clay rise and fall.

But for just simple counter example - The Baltics and now Finland.  Free to piss off Russia with abandon because they entered into a collective defence organization.  There are a myriad of strategies and ways a small nation can manage a relationship with a great power - "don't piss them off" is reductionist and narrow.  There is no "easy math out there".

 

China is a superpower. Any discussion otherwise is fruitless with you. I asked you a 'simple' question and skirting it in this manner is unproductive. There shouldn't be discomfort in answering.

 

Would you be willing to put your argument to the test and station nuclear missiles in Finland and the Baltics? Are you ready for you and your family to be incinerated over Riga and some Finnish swamplands? I doubt it. Nominal attachments aren't worth the paper they're written on. Russia cares about Ukraine because they believe its position, people, and geography of considerable importance to the health of their state. These other nations mean nothing until they act in a manner that changes that dynamic. Almost like, again, it's simple math. You put anti-Russian threats in your "free to piss off Russia" nations and we all pay the piper.

 

[Battlefront.com]

55 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Wasn't this already something done in the wake of the trump administration leaving office?

If there was something before  it was only a speed bump. Now it is a concrete barrier.

Steve

[Beleg85]

Putin seems very active lately on ideological front. He again unfurls his imperial plans more closely now- at least for time of elections subjects must see entire great, golden tapestry of his plans, magnificently decorated with maps, historical and religious anecdotes and displayed with all old sentiments he can find. In his mind, Kremlin will try to "take back" lands up to Lower Dnieper, crucially including Odessa.

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

46 minutes ago, poesel said:

Short explanation why and how Orban did not block the start of the EU process for Ukraine: when the vote came, he left the room and the other 26 voted yes. So legally, everything is ok even though Orban didn't vote at all.

However, he has ample opportunity to block this process further down the line. But given the glacial speeds this process runs, he may be out of office by then. IIRC next vote is in 3 years in Hungary.

But there is another thing that has IMHO the biggest potential to delay Ukraine's EU membership: the EU will have to switch to a qualified majority vote for most of its process. Away from the unanimous vote style we have now. After the fun we had with Poland and have with Hungary, there won't be another two EEC countries joining the club while the rules are what they are now.
That reform will take a looooong time. Even though today is a happy day for Ukraine in this respect, I predict heavy frustration in the coming years.

 

33 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Curiously, he was given 10 bln euro bribe several days ago from various funds, frozen previously due to corruption practices. Today leaders all agreed that he will "disappear" from the floor and voting will take place in his absence; idea was reportedly Scholz's or Michelle. Thus he can stay clean, cry "they tricked us!" (but not too convincingly...) while unblocking UA access. Just another day in Brussels.

Do not get fooled "we don't talk with Orban" either; it's theatre. He is veteran of this place, knows every corner and they will miss him greatly one day, cause every dirty job can be given to/ pushed on him if necesary. Additionaly, he is popular in Hotel Rooms due to knowing awful lot of dirty jokes.

Also Georgia come in. That will be fun.

What had to happen to day, happened. That is plenty good enough. 

[dan/california]

34 minutes ago, Khalerick said:

 

China is a superpower. Any discussion otherwise is fruitless with you. I asked you a 'simple' question and skirting it in this manner is unproductive. There shouldn't be discomfort in answering.

 

Would you be willing to put your argument to the test and station nuclear missiles in Finland and the Baltics? Are you ready for you and your family to be incinerated over Riga and some Finnish swamplands? I doubt it. Nominal attachments aren't worth the paper they're written on. Russia cares about Ukraine because they believe its position, people, and geography of considerable importance to the health of their state. These other nations mean nothing until they act in a manner that changes that dynamic. Almost like, again, it's simple math. You put anti-Russian threats in your "free to piss off Russia" nations and we all pay the piper.

 

Funny you should mention that....

 

HELSINKI, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Finland will on Monday Dec. 18 sign a defence cooperation agreement with the United States, the Finnish government said on Thursday, to grant the U.S. military broad access across the Nordic country to the vicinity of its long border with Russia.

Russia's Nordic neighbour Finland became the NATO military alliance's newest member earlier this year in response to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

"The fact that there will be no need to agree on everything separately, makes organising peace time operations easier, but above all it can be vital in a crisis," Finland's Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen told reporters.

Quote

https://www.reuters.com/world/finland-sign-defence-pact-with-us-2023-12-14/#:~:text=HELSINKI%2C Dec 14 (Reuters),its long border with Russia.

Not nukes, yet, but certainly a very sharp stick in the general direction of Putin's eye.

Edited December 14, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

On 12/14/2023 at 12:52 AM, Bulletpoint said:

What will you do? Shoot prisoners on sight? Torture them? Use human shields to advance (if that's what the video actually shows)?. Force young Ukrainian men to advance into minefields at gunpoint? Fire (more) drones at Moscow? Go to a Russian town to rape women? Steal toilets and washing machines?

I don't know why you told about such extreme things. This is will not help to win.

I also can't agree with comparison of current war with warcrimes and "warcrimes" during wars, which USA waged on foreign territories. We withstand much more stronger and numerous enemy, who invaded on own land. And they are not those, who had upbringing and traditions of western civilization. Our enemy is a nation, for which a will to live uder "strong hand", a violence on all levels, wars, cult of force and humilitation of weaker, semi-criminal rules in society, feel of own supremacy over other nations, imperialistic snobbery to other cultures, semi-religious messianism, envy to neighbour's success etc is a natural thing. As sings the new Russian pop-star Shaman, frontman of Z-idology in music: "I'm Russian - I wil go on till the end... I'm Russian out of spite to the whole world"

Most of Russians support this war. Even those "liberals", who "against" Putin and war indeed against own participation in this war. They were long-time proud that "we are out of policy". But indifference of millions borns dictatorship of one. Russians don't feel the war. Their largest cities stiil bask in luxury and idle life. They maybe have a hunch about dozen thousands of kileld, but believe that Ukrainians lost much more anyway (how else?) and these victims were acquitted for future dominatin of Russia in the world and humilitation of West and espacially their impudent puppet - Ukarine,  "who betrayed Russian world". 

When I read stories our former POWs, how Russians treated them in jails, how they tortured them, beat up, starved them, when I've seen how they proudly post videos with executions of our POWs and they when I've see Russian POWs, having faces like after normal restourant menu, I ask - maybe let they sit too on poor food, maybe to send them to hard works? Russian blocked POW exchanges and more and more executed our POWs. So, why we need to feed this trash, spending our budget? We had already several cases, that Russian POWs on camera told they against the war, they don't know, they were mobilized by force, they never more come to Ukraine with a weapon if they exchanged. And since some time the same Russians were captured again. So, did you surrender by free-will? Welcome to POW camp. Did you rise own hands during trench cleaning? Sorry, bro, too late.  

Russia has much more "meat" than we are. And I afraid even ATACAMS, Taurus and F-16 will not be a magic wand. Until Russians inside own country will feel a war. Not a poor single "Bober", who will fly in window of luxury skyscrapper or even into the roof of military factory. And even these episodes then will be debated in "civilized world" - either Ukraine has a right or not? Yes, we have. And we MUST to do the same as Israel does in Gaza. Where "innocent people" - from kids to olds dancing and celebrating on the streets the carnage of Jews and then crying about "how dare you bomb peaceful innocent cities?!". We must to force Russian civilians feel a panic, when they just hear any wistling sound or any sound similar to explosion. Let their children learn in subway and basements. Let even their AD shot down our missiles and drones, but let it be not single, but dozens, fragments of which will damage their appartments, cars etc. Let RDK made more raids to Russia and West don't alarming "OMG! They had Belgian rifles and two HMMWVs!!!" Let be more strikes at Russian power plants - let they sit in darkness and without work. Let be more strikes at Russian oil facilities without Western concerning "not so much, this will cause rising of prices on the oil"

Russia is a nation, who recognized only feel of fear. They wage a war on annihilation. It's stupid to see in this usual "border conflict" like between civilized nations with all rules of war, conventions etc. Allies in WWII ruined whole cities just because this played a role of revenge and psychological blows and had also some military demography objectives - reducing of potential number of mobilized or workers for economy. Two nukes on Japan maybe were warcrimes from point of view of modern humanism, but they saved lives of dozen thousands of Allies soldiers, who didn't die in further war with Japan, which could last more in 1946-47.   

Edited December 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[FlemFire]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Funny you should mention that....

 

HELSINKI, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Finland will on Monday Dec. 18 sign a defence cooperation agreement with the United States, the Finnish government said on Thursday, to grant the U.S. military broad access across the Nordic country to the vicinity of its long border with Russia.

Russia's Nordic neighbour Finland became the NATO military alliance's newest member earlier this year in response to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

"The fact that there will be no need to agree on everything separately, makes organising peace time operations easier, but above all it can be vital in a crisis," Finland's Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen told reporters.

Not nukes, yet, but certainly a very sharp stick in the general direction of Putin's eye.

 

Wake me up when something provocative happens. After all, what did happen the last time some provocative occurred? The U.S. dogwalked Ukraine into a shredder. Twice. I'll ask again, are you willing to be incinerated over Finland? Lot of talk in this topic, not a lot of backing it up, though.

 

BTW, not sure if you know this, but a form of this sort of 'relationship' already exists in a couple nations around U.S.'s enemies. For Russia, the most obvious is Armenia. Unless you have some other good reason for U.S.'s second largest "embassy" being in that little country, or why this diplomatic structure looks exactly like a gigantic listening post. 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Khalerick said:

 

China is a superpower. Any discussion otherwise is fruitless with you. I asked you a 'simple' question and skirting it in this manner is unproductive. There shouldn't be discomfort in answering.

 

Would you be willing to put your argument to the test and station nuclear missiles in Finland and the Baltics? Are you ready for you and your family to be incinerated over Riga and some Finnish swamplands? I doubt it. Nominal attachments aren't worth the paper they're written on. Russia cares about Ukraine because they believe its position, people, and geography of considerable importance to the health of their state. These other nations mean nothing until they act in a manner that changes that dynamic. Almost like, again, it's simple math. You put anti-Russian threats in your "free to piss off Russia" nations and we all pay the piper.

 

Ok now you have my full attention.  So to answer your first question - no, it was a terrible idea but here we are.  We did not “push” Russia into anything - unless you subscribe to the John Kettler school of international policy.  They did fall into it.

I think what I find most offensive about your position now that is becoming clear is that somehow this entire war is Ukraines fault because they pissed off Russia.  So small powers should basically all fall in line to neighbouring greater powers and the freedoms and will of their peoples do not count?  This is where oversimplification get us.

We stationed western troops, including Canadians in the Baltics.  But we should back off because we wouldn’t want to make Russia angry.  Beyond your definitive tone you also appear to get pretty high on your own opinion.  Chinas status as a superpower is debatable:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/02/china-superpower-us-new-cold-war-rivalry-geopolitics/
 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-emergence-superpower

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2023/08/25/why-chinas-bid-to-become-a-superpower-is-doomed-to-failure/?sh=651d400d1d0e

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3936751-china-a-great-power-but-not-a-superpower/

So glad another expert could come and tell us how it really is.

 

 

[The_Capt]

28 minutes ago, Khalerick said:

Wake me up when something provocative happens. After all, what did happen the last time some provocative occurred? The U.S. dogwalked Ukraine into a shredder. Twice. I'll ask again, are you willing to be incinerated over Finland? Lot of talk in this topic, not a lot of backing it up, though.

So the only provocative action a nation state can do is post nuclear weapons?  That is a straw man if there ever was one.

And here is a question for you - why should the fear and intimidation go one way?  Is Russia willing to be incinerated over Finland?  Are they hooked into some secret drug that makes deterrence impossible?  Seriously, this Everyone Else Powerful We are Weak is starting to sound awfully political….certain specific political.

[Bulletpoint]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And here is a question for you - why should the fear and intimidation go one way?  Is Russia willing to be incinerated over Finland?

I'm not the guy you're asking, but couldn't help but chime in here..

Why should fear and intimidation go one way? It doesn't necessarily, but in Russia, it all comes down to what one single guy thinks, and whether that single guy is intimidated or not. While over here in the West, someone like Biden can't just decide to play hardball because he feels like he's old anyway and has nothing to lose.

We are a lot who all have a lot to lose, and since we don't live in a dictatorship, our opinions matter - at least collectively.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Frogfoot having a brown pants moment:

https://www.dumpert.nl/item/100079415_aa2ca275

Apologies if this was already posted. I haven't seen it before in my usual feeds but Dumpert is rarely among the first to post this sort of stuff. So I may very well have missed it in the usual places, including this thread.