How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I'm not sure about "China wouldn't do a thing with Taiwan because it's economically stupid".

I remember the discussion "Russia isn't going to invade because it would be utterly stupid". I remember how it turned into "I really thought they wouldn't invade, because it really was utterly stupid" which turned into "See? It was utterly stupid" and now that the war is likely over and we're looking at the likely end state, we are talking about how "yes it was stupid for sure but if you assign the 'victory points' certain way, maybe it was not utterly stupid".

Sheesh... talk about defeatism.  I suppose the British lost the war in 1940 and we just didn't get the memo?  Because if you look at Britain's position after the France fell and the Luftwaffe started wiping out British cities, I'd argue that things were as bleak if not worse.  Yet I'm pretty sure I remember the outcome was decided a few years later and it was favorable to Britain. 

For sure Ukraine didn't have a perfect year this year, but it wasn't terrible either.  On the whole I would say it was a good year, especially considering compared to the summer of 2022.  Unless you have a crystal ball I'd caution you to not be so certain of what the future holds.  There's a wide range of possibilities and ending doesn't seem to be in the immediate cards.  Personally, I think both sides are going to try for a better 2024 and if it winds up similar to 2023 both sides will probably want to quit for a while.

 

I know I've gone on and on and on about how there is no empirical way to think Russia came out ahead.  However, in this latest round of pushing back against baseless emotional arguments that Russia can "win" I forgot another important aspect of it:

Russia did not have to do a full scale invasion to grab the land corridor or take the remaining geographical parts of the Donbas.  If it had not tried to take the north of Ukraine, in particular Kyiv, I don't see a reasonable scenario where Russia wouldn't be in possession of the land bridge and more of Donbas than it currently has.  It is also probable that Ukraine would have allowed Russia to freeze the war in 2022 if this happened and Russia didn't have idiotic and vague war aims.

The importance of this point is to emphasize that if Russia's goals for starting this war were just about grabbing the south and the Donbas, it could have done that.  Instead, they wanted Ukraine wiped off the map and were arrogant enough to think they could.  Since Ukraine still stands, then by Russia's own definition and choice to not go with more realistic war aims, they have lost this war.

5 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

We can certainly hope China isn't that stupid and would rather sit on its extended back and make hilarious amounts of money than make war and possibly get that extended back kicked in some way. But as they say, hope is not a strategy.

Absolutely.  NATO, on the whole, should have been planning for 2022 starting in 2014.  It did a little here and there, but timidly and haphazardly.  What they did do probably made the difference between Ukraine being overrun in March 2022, but not nearly enough to deter Russia from invading in the first place.

The US, at least, is spending a lot of energy on reassessing policy towards China because of the shock of what Russia did.  Our best hope is that Russia's horrible performance in the war, coupled with the West's pretty cohesive response (flawed as it may be), has made China's "hawks" worried that they could wind up in the same position.  I have a feeling that the political leadership has such concerns, mostly because they backed away from supporting Russia and certainly haven't made moves to start invading neighboring countries.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

11 hours ago, poesel said:

An initiative to create a European Army is underway since 1950, which, depending on the specific proposal, would create something similar than yours - except sans NATO. Of course, this has created some criticism from (amongst others) Jens Stoltenberg (obviously) and DT (funnily, as usual).

For all the reasons mentioned, and more, the European Army is not only unlikely to happen IT SHOULDN'T happen.  The last thing Europe needs is another set of complex treaty obligations when its previous ones are not being met.

What I was talking about was a new way for NATO to think.  There's nothing within the NATO charter or NATO member's internal policies that would prevent a reorganization from happening.  It's a lack of political will to be realistic and/or pragmatic.  Not surprising, but still frustrating.  NATO could be so much better and I think the cost lower if they focused on capabilities instead of funding levels.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Did someone say Moldova?  From ISW's December 2nd report:

Quote

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s November 30 threat against Moldova may have emboldened certain pro-Russian actors to attempt to sow political instability and division in Moldova.[30] The pro-Russian head of Moldova’s Gagauzia region, Yevgenia Gutsul, claimed on December 1 that Moldovan state energy company Moldovagaz blocked Gagauzia from receiving gas from a Turkish supplier that the pro-Russian Gagauzia regional government had negotiated outside of state contracts.[31] Gutsul claimed that Moldovagaz sells gas at a higher price per cubic meter than the Turkish partner and accused Moldova of ignoring Gaguazia’s calls to provide its residents with cheap gas for the upcoming winter. Moldovan President Maia Sandu notably denied Gutsul’s request for a spot in her cabinet on November 13 because Gutsul is a member of the banned Shor political party, which Russia used to promote pro-Russian interests and political instability in Moldova until the Moldovan Constitutional Court banned the party in June 2023.[32] Shor Party head Ilhan Shor used the party to spark protests in September 2022-June 2023 ultimately aimed at toppling the current Moldovan government.[33] Moldovagaz Head Vadim Ceban stated that Moldovagaz does not have the physical or legal ability to block gas supplies at the Gagauzia border and that Moldovagaz has not received the necessary documentation to switch Gagauzia’s natural gas suppliers.[34] Sandu stripped Moldovan Party of Regions head Alexander Kalinin of his Moldovan citizenship on November 27 due to his extensive support of the Russian war in Ukraine, and Kalinin announced efforts on December 1 to recruit Moldovan volunteers to fight alongside the Russian military in Ukraine.[35] Russia conducted a likely campaign to destabilize Moldova in early 2023, and Russia may seek to revamp these efforts to distract international attention from the war in Ukraine.[36]

This is why I believe Moldova, Ukraine, the EU, and individual members of NATO should be working to eject Russia from Transnistria.  Allowing Russia's influence to be (basically) unchallenged is a mistake.  Settling Transnistria isn't going to be easy, but not doing isn't risk free either.

Obviously the best time to kick Russia out of Transnistria is if Russia devolves into a civil war.  I don't think that should be counted on, so now is probably a pretty good time to get things rolling.

Steve

[danfrodo]

Yeah, the 'RU is winning' stuff is so shallow it's hard to put words to it, like this is some kind of sporting event w a scoreboard.  Since day 4 of this epic debacle, Putin has done nothing but desperately try to salvage something, anything. from an utter disaster and the cost is absolutely astronomical relative to the gain.  Maybe does hold the current gains, but the costs continue to accrue meaning he aint done paying yet, so every day it becomes more of an absurdly ruinous affair.  It's like he bought a house where the costs of keeping the house go up more & more every month.

[danfrodo]

Ukraine has suffered and continues to suffer terrible losses, but it survives and will continue to survive this war that was intended as Ukrainian extermination.

[Zeleban]

 

Throughout the war, it was clear that having a rear invulnerable to Russian shelling in the form of Eastern European countries, Ukraine would be able to effectively fight against the Russians. But as it turned out, all these statements turned out to be just an illusion. Russia has found a way to blockade Ukraine, cutting it off from the West. It is difficult to convey how effective this is in destroying the morale of Ukrainians. From the statement: “All of Europe is with us, we will win” to “No one cares about us and no one needs us with our fight”. 

 

Even if somehow governments manage to unblock the border to resume supplies to Ukraine. There is no way to restore the morality of the Ukrainian people and faith in their neighbors. An incredibly effective and important step by Putin in the fight against Ukraine in particular and the West in general. For some reason, people in the West underestimate this victory of Putin.

[Zeleban]

It's incredible how relevant this is. I can’t even believe that this was known 10 years ago.

[Letter from Prague]

.

Edited December 3, 2023 by Letter from Prague
forum hiccup

[Letter from Prague]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We are not going to solve for China here but this whole “ya they ain’t so great” followed by “but they only want to destroy our freedoms, today Taiwan, tomorrow Nebraska” is almost as bad as whatever Putin was pushing before this war started.  Respect an opponent until they prove otherwise.  You do yourself no favours assuming they are stupid, anymore than you do assuming they are geniuses.  

I think the point is not that they're stupid, or that they're super-wise empire thinking millennia ahead - but as with Russia, I think the most important lesson is that if they have different values (due to different culture and different governance model), our ideas of what is and isn't obviously stupid might not really apply.

If everyone made the same calculus as us, the whole world would be all like West just with different cuisines. It is not.

[Aragorn2002]

19 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Another recording of Muscovite warcrime surfaced: Russian assaulters shot surrendering Ukrainian soldiers:

 

It's Russian nature to commit crimes. And this time no Mother Russia to avenge or use as excuse for their attrocities. Strange this kind of news doesn't make it to the main media.

[Zeleban]

Stoltenberg describes the current situation in Ukraine as critical

[Zeleban]

 

Wait a minute, who said that the Polish government is considering the possibility of unblocking the borders with Ukraine. Nothing like this. Only strengthening the blockade.

Overall, this is a pretty reasonable solution to keep Poland safe from the millions of Ukrainian refugees who will flee ahead of the advancing Russian troops deep into Ukraine. So I expect that the borders with Poland will remain closed until the fall of Ukraine and the blockade of these borders by Poland will only intensify.

Edited December 3, 2023 by Zeleban

[LongLeftFlank]

Johnny "Gurkha" packed it in cuz he didn't get paid (or get food)? Perhaps he'll switch sides.

More discussion around origins of South Asian mercs (hint: NOT Gurkhas):  https://nitter.net/infussambas/status/1669666768909131776#m

Edited December 3, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[hcrof]

33 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Wait a minute, who said that the Polish government is considering the possibility of unblocking the borders with Ukraine. Nothing like this. Only strengthening the blockade.

Overall, this is a pretty reasonable solution to keep Poland safe from the millions of Ukrainian refugees who will flee ahead of the advancing Russian troops deep into Ukraine. So I expect that the borders with Poland will remain closed until the fall of Ukraine and the blockade of these borders by Poland will only intensify.

Sorry, can you point out the bit where they said the border would be blocked? 

As far as I can see they will "increase checks". If that is what it takes to stop the truckers from blocking the border then that would be good for Ukraine. And noone said how extensive these checks will be. 

[Splinty]

46 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Wait a minute, who said that the Polish government is considering the possibility of unblocking the borders with Ukraine. Nothing like this. Only strengthening the blockade.

Overall, this is a pretty reasonable solution to keep Poland safe from the millions of Ukrainian refugees who will flee ahead of the advancing Russian troops deep into Ukraine. So I expect that the borders with Poland will remain closed until the fall of Ukraine and the blockade of these borders by Poland will only intensify.

What makes you think the Russians are going to advance "deep into Ukraine"? Their performance so far shows no evidence that Russia will advance more than a few hundred meters before the UA pushes them back.

Edited December 3, 2023 by Splinty
Can't spell

[Zeleban]

18 minutes ago, Splinty said:

What makes you think the Russians are going to advance "deep into Ukraine"? Their performance so far shows no evidence that Russia will advance more than a few hundred meters before the UA pushes them back.

 

1. Increasing Russian attacks on almost all sectors of the front.

2. Political crisis in the Ukrainian government with a real prospect of a rebellion against Zelensky.

Already now one can observe the gradual abandonment of positions by the Ukrainian military near Bakhmut, near Liman and near Avdiivka.

[poesel]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

For all the reasons mentioned, and more, the European Army is not only unlikely to happen IT SHOULDN'T happen.  The last thing Europe needs is another set of complex treaty obligations when its previous ones are not being met.

There is a non-zero chance that DT will be your next president. And if this time there are no adults in the room, he might just do what he promised he would and leave NATO.

Then what, Europe?

In a perfect world, that scenario isn't going to happen, and we all work together in NATO. If not, we should have a plan B.

[LongLeftFlank]

39 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Already now one can observe the gradual abandonment of positions by the Ukrainian military near Bakhmut, near Liman and near Avdiivka.

The g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ Twittersphere sighed / as the lines on the map / moved from side to side

Abandonment to Russian occupation? or the  forced deepening (by both sides) of no-mans-land, within which even squad level tactical movement by either side attracts the lethal attention of UAVs?

Or even the physical presence of more than 3 heat signatures in a hole.

*****

https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-a

Avdiivka now is 22 km of a constantly shelled road. There are sections where enemy UAVs are actively working, so, as we say, we need to "skip" quickly. We entered without headlights, quickly, with open windows in the car to hear enemy UAVs.

After the morning, the Russians fly with Orlans (recon UAV); they observe, and determine where there are groups of people (3 or more), from which building smoke is coming from a home stove, and KABs target it.

I spoke with servicemen from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, who have been firmly defending this direction since March 2022. The primary need is for combat equipment! There is also a shortage of personnel. Additionally, there is a constant need for drones: daytime, nighttime, strike, and FPV drones for installing surveillance cameras on various objects.

Edited December 3, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Splinty said:

What makes you think the Russians are going to advance "deep into Ukraine"? Their performance so far shows no evidence that Russia will advance more than a few hundred meters before the UA pushes them back.

Apparently over the last week:

- War is over

- War is not over but Ukraine is doomed

- War is over for Ukraine but not Russia

- It is all the West’s fault.

Whelp that was interesting….

Edited December 3, 2023 by The_Capt

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

There is a non-zero chance that DT will be your next president. And if this time there are no adults in the room, he might just do what he promised he would and leave NATO.

Then what, Europe?

Then France will be our new master.

[Zeleban]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Apparently over the last week:

- War is over

- War is not over but Ukraine is doomed

- War is over for Ukraine but not Russia

- It is all the West’s fault.

Whelp that was interesting….

Well, first of all, in response to the activation of enemy troops along the entire front line, we do not see any adequate and decisive actions from our military and civilian leadership. Only increased internecine squabbling. Zelensky seems to have decided to replace the chief of the general staff. I fully support this decision, because all responsibility for the failure of the Ukrainian military campaign in 2023 lies entirely on the shoulders of the General Staff, which was unable to adequately assess the enemy’s forces and capabilities and develop the correct strategy.

Replacing Zaluzhny would be a good signal that the leadership of our country is ready to adequately and decisively respond to military failures at the front. But instead, Zelensky started a real drama with intrigue and gossip, which provoked a split in Ukrainian society, which is intensifying every day. 

As a result, against the backdrop of complications at the front, we have a difficult situation in the rear with thousands of Ukrainians almost ready to throw themselves at each other in defense of their favorite political figures.

[Hapless]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Apparently over the last week:

- War is over

- War is not over but Ukraine is doomed

- War is over for Ukraine but not Russia

- It is all the West’s fault.

Whelp that was interesting….

Maybe we should keep a running graph...

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

Maybe we should keep a running graph...

Must be Tuesday again….

[billbindc]

16 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

As for china thinking long term, I always in my mind go back to two specific incidents - one when they killed a lot of their people by relying on their own COVID vaccines, which were not as effective as the Western ones. The other when they decided to punish Australia for their prime minister (or whoever) asking for official investigation where does COVID come from (because China "knew" it was American virus) and stopped import of everything Australian, including coal which they really needed and cause themselves industrial impacts, including blackouts.

That's not a long-term thinking, that's closer to someone throwing a tantrum or coldly deciding that saving face is more important than saving lives, or both.

At the same time, China can do long-term infrastructure projects we can't even dream of in the West, can build and scale industry like noone else and managed to get a lot of people out of actual poverty over last decades.

...

I feel like this is more democracy vs dictatorship thing - democracies tent to average things out, and that's why they take so long to do something, while dictatorships have more "peaks" that can be both peaks of utter stupidity or brilliance. Sometimes you get high-speed rail and sometimes you get invasion of Ukraine.

This is pretty close to what I've observed as well. In foreign policy, China has completely alienated the Philippines after it had made enormous progress in suborning it to Chinese interests. It virtually drove Australia into much larger military commitments to the US alliance. Wolf warrior diplomacy induced Japan and South Korea into a trilateral pact with the US. 

All of that is indeed quite stupid. What I see is a nation that has economic and military interests that on many levels it pursues rationally but that cannot stop itself from lunging emotionally almost systematically in ways that unite its opponents...who is anyone in their neighborhood. China, as a diplomat friends likes to say, has no friends.

 

[billbindc]

17 hours ago, JonS said:

A shout out to my pedantic bros: you say "forget the models" ... then immediately insert more models

This isnt really a dig. We ALL do this - reject models we dont like, and replace them with ones we do (and, crucially, ones we can comprehend). See? I'm doing it right now!

The 'why' is pretty obvious, I think. The world is complex, yo, and summarising it into models is how we can make sense of that complexity.

So " throw out the models" just isn't a practical model for behaviour. At least, not in my model of how things work.

Point taken.

I guess a way to put it is that I would suggest starting with known facts and then working out your conclusions. Making a model from that, if you will. The problem with the Thucydides Trap, etc is that they go in the other direction.