How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

Have doubts about this, because Sushko, but interesting if true:

 

[Battlefront.com]

LLF's posting of the difficulties of vehicles in the mud just reminded me it's that time of year to talk about what the lack of training and experience does in this sort of weather.  Especially when commanders are a combination of incompetent, uncaring, and following orders by people of the same caliber.  What you get are a bunch of nOoBz getting vehicles stuck while attempting to carry out ill conceived orders by people who don't have a grip on reality and, if they do, don't care about consequences.

On the vehicle side specifically, untrained drivers not only means getting stuck more frequently than trained ones, it also likely means vehicles breaking down more frequently due to cold related difficulties.  Add to this the general lower quality of Russian vehicular fleets this year compared to last, and the chances of a Russian vehicle being lost (even if temporarily) to weather should be higher this year.

The Russian military was pretty crappy going into last mud and winter seasons.  Arguably it is even worse this year.  I'm guessing Russia will experience a higher percentage of cold related illness/injuries and inoperable/stuck vehicles this year compared to last.

This is not the sort of thing I expect to have a strategic impact on the war, but it could have some local impact because a poor quality unit is likely to run into these sorts of problems on a greater scale than a better one.  We definitely saw examples of this last year with mobiks from the partial mobilization and Wagner's prisoner units.  I am sure I remember one instance in the north of Bakhmut where a Ukrainian unit stumbled upon a squad sized group of frozen Wagnerites.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

37 minutes ago, akd said:

Have doubts about this, because Sushko, but interesting if true:

 

Could be true, but the video doesn't show anything other than taking down a damaged mining tower.  Could just as easily be that they took it down in order to build a new one.

The thing is Russia really doesn't need the coal.  Given the markets I think Russia is unlikely to have the financial incentive to revive the damaged mining operations.  If they are destroying the mines, no real loss to them.

Steve

[Haiduk]

43 minutes ago, akd said:

Have doubts about this, because Sushko, but interesting if true:

 

Just a business. Russia has own coal mines in Rostov oblast. Donbas mines mostly declined now because many of miners already mobilized. Many of mining volumes conduct not in official mines, but in so-called "kopankas". Kopanka (derived from Ukr "dig in") is illegal mine, have been dug in on open ground, where coal seams are close to surface. This illegal business, which held by local criminals, having protection of top officials had been prospering as far as in Ukraine. Now kopankas mostly changed own owners and legal declined mines just destroy by Russians (especially by Chechens) - they dismount minimg equipment and sell it for example to Africa and all other metal just scrapped and also sell to scrapyards. This is good business, so often different groups of involved bands (Kadyrov's, MoD, FSB) engage each other for control for this scrap meral Klondike.

Edited November 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Yes, cheasy; but the problem is even asking this philosophical question assumes having wide options to choose from.

My post was a reply to an anecdote about someone who obviously had the choice, though.

[Haiduk]

Damn... UKR mobile anti-drone group engages Shakhed  - in splashes of fire at 0:08 you can see... DP-27 as one of weapon of this group. 

In our oblasts local administrations additionally established many of such groups, but as this often did in times of Soviet Union - for officials more important to report up "our directive is done" and show papers how all exellent. But indeed this new groups poorly equipped and if old machineguns like doulbled Maxims and PKMs (and even DP-27) is a problem of MoD resourses, that lack of pick-ups and projectors is a fail of local administrations. Also one man wrote for formation of these new units army brigades sent mostly own so-called "avatars" - drinking/drug-eating soldiers, who was just a headache for them. So, many people in these groups completely unmotivated, most of them don't want to train to shot UAVs and even if they have a training, again local military administrations just put a mark in report to up "training is condictaed, personnel is combat ready". But indeed when they engages a Shakhed, they can't shoot it even if they receive targeting via "Virazh" information system. This is one of reason why despite increasing of number of mobiule groups, result of destroyed Shakheds became worse and they continue to reach even western oblasts. Very small number of oblasts have quite number of trained and capable mobile groups.    

[danfrodo]

Haiduk reports that Putin launched major attack w shaheds and UKR shot down 74 of 75.  If true, this is an incredible achievement, and I really hope it's true.  If the AD is that strong around expected targets then I suppose Putin will look for other, less protected targets -- probably civilians in cities & towns not protected.

[Harmon Rabb]

I'm curious what President Zelenskyy means by this comment. Does he mean the Ukrainian Navy will get more ships in the near future? I am aware that the Royal Navy has trained Ukrainian sailors on operating British made minesweepers.

Royal Navy training Ukraine sailors as part of UK's support to country (Royal Navy.Mod.UK)

It does take a while to train a crew of a ship properly.

Anyhow here is a clip from the meeting where the statements were was made.

 

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Haiduk reports that Putin launched major attack w shaheds and UKR shot down 74 of 75.  If true, this is an incredible achievement, and I really hope it's true.  If the AD is that strong around expected targets then I suppose Putin will look for other, less protected targets -- probably civilians in cities & towns not protected.

This is because most of Shakheds were directed to Kyiv and it oblast, where AD is as very strong and echeloned from mobile groups to Iris-T/NASAMS and Patriot PAC-3. But if the same armada directed to western regions, I doubt we would be seen such excellent result. 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I'm curious what President Zelenskyy means by this comment. Does he mean the Ukrainian Navy will get more ships in the near future? I am aware that the Royal Navy has trained Ukrainian sailors on operating British made minesweepers.

Royal Navy training Ukraine sailors as part of UK's support to country (Royal Navy.Mod.UK)

It does take a while to train a crew of a ship properly.

Anyhow here is a clip from the meeting where the statements were was made.

 

The above is a good example of how there's a lot of misleading headlines about UKR aid being cut off.  There's some battles in some important aid provider govts, but aid is still flowing.  Is it enough?  It's never been as much as some of us would like, but it's still coming.  We've seen over last couple weeks very large commitments from various EU countries and the US even lined up more stuff.  

[Haiduk]

Well.... Again and again I recall words of Lenin "We will hang capitalism on the rope, which it will sell itself to us"

Some EU Nations Push to Weaken Russia Sanctions Enforcement Plan

A group of member states is pushing to dilute proposals by the European Union aimed at cracking down on the circumvention of sanctions on Russia through third countries, according to people familiar with the matter.

The bloc’s executive arm has proposed banning importers from reselling so-called high-priority items — like semiconductors used in weapons or needed to make them — to Russia or for use in Russia, and requiring a sum to be deposited in an escrow account to ensure compliance.

Under the EU’s latest sanctions proposals, seen by Bloomberg, at least half of that sum would be transferred to a trust fund for Ukraine and contracts would be terminated if they’re broken. Exporters would also be obliged to inform national authorities of any breaches by third-country companies.

 

But diplomatic envoys from a group of big member states raised several concerns with the proposals this week, including doubts about their legality, and whether asking for such guarantees and clauses from importers was workable, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The countries also want to narrow the scope of the potential clauses and the list of goods that would be covered by the proposed measure, according to the people. Those member states also worry that the contractual demands could put European companies at a competitive disadvantage.

Other member states, including the Baltic nations, back the proposals, said the people.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-25/some-eu-nations-push-to-weaken-russia-sanctions-enforcement-plan?srnd=europe-politics

 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

My post was a reply to an anecdote about someone who obviously had the choice, though.

Yes, but too many negative answers (or even questions raised) and your society is screwed royally; in existential war like this it means your polity will simply cease to exists, and quite amount of physical people with it. Defeatism is like contagious disease, in both micro and macro scale; it spreads the same way.

Now, if we ask the same Russians...it is entirely differnt issue, and very valid indeed. We should ask it continously and strive to answer it every month of this war again.

 

Ok, so in light of last powerful shahed attack, we may probably admitt new phase of winter aerial attacks is open. Do we know what actually Russians targeted? Did not find detailed info on Ukrainian channels.

Edited November 25, 2023 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Do we know what actually Russians targeted? Did not find detailed info on Ukrainian channels.

All they were shot down, so their routes could see only radar operators %) Likely they had to hit power objects primarily. At least fragments of one cut off aerial power lines near power substation in the central part. In Kyiv oblast one enterprise dacility was slightly damaged by fragments. 

There is an opinion in this time Russians can launch missiles and Shakheds in khaotic manner, causing hits in residential areas and victims to force Ukrianians to push on authorities to negotiate with Russia to stop war on any terms 

[LongLeftFlank]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

All they were shot down, so their routes could see only radar operators %) Likely they had to hit power objects primarily. At least fragments of one cut off aerial power lines near power substation in the central part. In Kyiv oblast one enterprise dacility was slightly damaged by fragments. 

There is an opinion in this time Russians can launch missiles and Shakheds in khaotic manner, causing hits in residential areas and victims to force Ukrianians to push on authorities to negotiate with Russia to stop war on any terms 

Get your own cheap Shaheds and start targeting  fixed infra in Russian territory. See how they like freezing in the dark in Kursk.

 

47 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Well.... Again and again I recall words of Lenin "We will hang capitalism on the rope, which it will sell itself to us"

Unfortunately, our capitalists also appear to have sold off the rope making machines.

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Damn... UKR mobile anti-drone group engages Shakhed  - in splashes of fire at 0:08 you can see... DP-27 as one of weapon of this group. 

In our oblasts local administrations additionally established many of such groups, but as this often did in times of Soviet Union - for officials more important to report up "our directive is done" and show papers how all exellent. But indeed this new groups poorly equipped and if old machineguns like doulbled Maxims and PKMs (and even DP-27) is a problem of MoD resourses, that lack of pick-ups and projectors is a fail of local administrations. Also one man wrote for formation of these new units army brigades sent mostly own so-called "avatars" - drinking/drug-eating soldiers, who was just a headache for them. So, many people in these groups completely unmotivated, most of them don't want to train to shot UAVs and even if they have a training, again local military administrations just put a mark in report to up "training is condictaed, personnel is combat ready". But indeed when they engages a Shakhed, they can't shoot it even if they receive targeting via "Virazh" information system. This is one of reason why despite increasing of number of mobiule groups, result of destroyed Shakheds became worse and they continue to reach even western oblasts. Very small number of oblasts have quite number of trained and capable mobile groups.    

Something like this

[Kraft]

More ambushes in Sumy region.

Indicates a lack of units to properly guard this region. Mashovets claims atleast 14 rus sabotage teams are active here.

In an armored vehicle the crew would likely still be alive .

Edited November 25, 2023 by Kraft

[akd]

T-90M with Kontakt-1 cope cage destroyed by drones:

 

[sburke]

Moscow is on fire after suspected drone attack - video (yahoo.com)

A fire broke out at the Chagino power substation’s transformer building in southeastern Moscow early on Nov. 24, sending thick smoke into the area, the Russian Mash Telegram channel reported.

The 200-square-meter fire in the 20-meter-high building is making the flame difficult to extinguish.

An explosion at a power substation in the town of Lytkarino near Moscow was reported overnight on Nov. 23.

[Haiduk]

28 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Indicates a lack of units to properly guard this region.

People write this is mostly because of passivity and often hidden sabotage of local military-civil administration, tied with local "landlord" Derkach, who fled to Russia. Local SBU doing almost nothing with this "copperhead snakes". Also local military command took off SOF units, making anti-sabateurs raids and obligued TD and border guard units to defend the border, but terrain this very suitable for diversion raids. Unlike Belarusian border, covered by dense forests and swamps, defended by heavy fortifications and minefields, Sumy and partially Chernihiv oblats has foresry and mostly dry terrain, often with hills and deep ravins, which make easy the sneaking of Russian Spetsnaz. No minefield or fortified areas. Villages in 10-30 km from the border are almost completely abandoned. But anyway neighbor Chernihiv oblast has much less Spetsnaz raids, than Sumy oblast 

PS. This "Bukhanka", being shot out belonged to medical service.

Edited November 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[Sojourner]

8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Air Defense Command has reported about 71 from 75 shot down Shakheds, then corrected this information to 74 from 75.

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

But indeed this new groups poorly equipped and if old machineguns like doulbled Maxims and PKMs (and even DP-27)

Percentages are up. Perhaps 100-year old equipment is not so poor.

 

Love the photo Zeleban linked, has a kind of a Snoopy and the Red Baron vibe.

[Vet 0369]

20 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Why not? As recently as the Covid pandemic anti-vax communication was suppressed in a million of formal and less formal ways. The West is no virgin which would be suddenly debauched by this.

BTW from today's perspective there is no doubt that McCarthy was mostly right.

Speaking as one who lived through the “Red Scare” BS of “Tail Gunner Joe,” and not the history books, the opinions of many that he was right, doesn’t matter. His actions were absolutely wrong, and unconstitutional! The First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution affirms not only freedom of speech, but also the freedom of association. It completely disgusts me when politicians (who swear an oath to “defend the Constitution from all enemies both foreign and domestic), media, and individuals, decide the Constitution applies only to them and their beliefs and positions. The Constitution, and every Amendment to the Constitution must be treated as a whole and applies to everyone EQUALLY whether or not you like what it says, and every part of the Constitution MUST be afforded equal weight, no matter whether you like it or not!
 

I might not like what might result from the conforming to the constitutional requirements, but I must respect them!

[dan/california]

I am not sure how much of the issue is simply not giving a bleep? And how much is the fact that if they send the body home they have to pay death benefits?

Edited November 25, 2023 by dan/california

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

More ambushes in Sumy region.

Indicates a lack of units to properly guard this region. Mashovets claims atleast 14 rus sabotage teams are active here.

In an armored vehicle the crew would likely still be alive .

It's growing problem there; even humanitarian workers are reportedly now discouraged of closing 30km to the border in the north. One group of volunteer medics claim such groups hunt for light transports, often medical teams transporting casualties (one was wiped out in ambush, nurses and patients alike) directly and even several dozens kms behind the front.

Btw. none of fighing sides in this war abide to "don't shoot the medics" rule anymore.

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

There is an opinion in this time Russians can launch missiles and Shakheds in khaotic manner, causing hits in residential areas and victims to force Ukrianians to push on authorities to negotiate with Russia to stop war on any terms 

Shakeds will likely not cause significant damage at this stage, but larger missiles may pose a problem. To cause larger casualties muscovites would likely need more Iskander-types than they can field now.

Edited November 25, 2023 by Beleg85

[LongLeftFlank]

1. Unconfirmed, but

 

 

2.  Also unconfirmed, but i think the Wise Men here called it right: it isn't just airborne drones that are going to reinvent tactical warfare. 

Additional discussion, videos and links here. More than a little on the rah rah side regarding the tech, but we will see soon whether this is vapourtech or making an impact.

3.  War profiteering?

4. Short tactical vignette: brew-up and bail-out

 

 

Edited November 25, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

53 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Percentages are up. Perhaps 100-year old equipment is not so poor.

Kyiv mobile groups have more tough equipment ) Though paired Maxim AAMG is much more good stuff than DP-27