How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

28 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Clearly INS is not some magic guidance system and needs GPS

 

No, she doesn't need GPS. Otherwise, it would be as if the same V-1 rocket flew during the Second World War. There was no satellite navigation back then, but the V-1 had an autopilot. JDAM bombs do not have an inertial system. They are aimed at the target only using GPS. However, we have seen a number of cases of successful use of these bombs by Ukraine

35 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Why don't you do some legwork and find some credible sites that say the HIMARs are all working just fine?  No problems at all.  And then we can compare.

Why do this? after all, the entire OSINT is at a glance. No “special” sites needed

[sburke]

35 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Seriously google "HIMARs jammed" and see what you get.  Either this is one helluva complex hoax or maybe the RA came up with a counter.  

Would you please stop being rational, it gets in the way of my blinders.

Edited November 22, 2023 by sburke

[Zeleban]

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

No, to be followed by software and hardware upgrades so that we can start putting deep strike pressure back on.  Seriously guys, we are becoming an freakin echo chamber in here.  Were all those Leos and Bradley's knocked out in minefields "Russian propaganda" too.  It is war.  The enemy does not sit around and happily get HIMARs-ed (or whatever) without trying to do something about it.  This kind of back and forth is just what happens.

What do shot down Leopards and Bradleys have to do with Pentagon leaks and the effectiveness of electronic warfare systems against HIMARS?

[Battlefront.com]

The successful jamming of military grade guidance systems is not a big issue right now.  Jamming of civilian types, however, is.  I just read an article about how EW is screwing up civilian aircraft related to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

Ukraine is still smashing things quite nicely and quite accurately despite all of Russia's EW, but apparently there have been situations where the CEP was affected.  Maybe enough to matter, but maybe not.

Here's an article on how jamming and spoofing is overcome:

https://pages.crfs.com/blog/how-to-deal-with-gps-jamming-and-spoofing

I have no idea what capabilities are built into the JDAMs and HIMARS munitions right now, but I would be surprised if "none" was the answer.

I found a defense company selling anti-jamming systems to military customers, so this isn't a future thing it's a now thing.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

US Arms Makers Dominate Top Expo As Russia Fails To Sell (Newsweek)

LOL...That is all.

[hcrof]

Guys, a little nuance please.

When you GPS jam a himars the INS System Kicks in so it is not as accurate. The missile doesn't just fly into space but the CEP definitely increases. Russia has done this in some areas. Sometimes things got hit, sometimes the missiles missed. 

[Zeleban]

7 minutes ago, hcrof said:

When you GPS jam a himars the INS System Kicks in so it is not as accurate. The missile doesn't just fly into space but the CEP definitely increases. Russia has done this in some areas. Sometimes things got hit, sometimes the missiles missed. 

It all depends on the number of errors accumulated in the gyroscopes during maneuvering of the rocket. If there were a lot of maneuvers, then there were a lot of errors, but if there were few maneuvers, then few errors were accumulated in the gyroscopes, which means the rocket will be quite accurate.

The HIMARS missile is clearly less maneuverable than an airplane or cruise missile. Therefore, it is quite accurate even without GPS

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

It all depends on the number of errors accumulated in the gyroscopes during maneuvering of the rocket. If there were a lot of maneuvers, then there were a lot of errors, but if there were few maneuvers, then few errors were accumulated in the gyroscopes, which means the rocket will be quite accurate.

The HIMARS missile is clearly less maneuverable than an airplane or cruise missile. Therefore, it is quite accurate even without GPS

What I've seen mentioned is that with HIMARS, in particular, is the effective EW blanket can only affect the final phase of targeting corrections.  That's because EW doesn't go all the way into the stratosphere nor does it extend 10s of KMs deep into Ukrainian territory where HIMARS are launched from.  Basically meaning that the HIMARS is pretty much already on target by the time EW is effectively able to screw around with it, thus reducing the chances of a miss.

This also requires thick EW coverage.  We've seen that due to the volume of space Russia has to cover, it's not equally effective in all areas.  My guess is obvious targets, like Sevastopol, are taking up the majority of EW resources.  This makes a random TOS-1 sitting in a random field supporting a random attack more likely to receive an accurate HIMARS hit.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

[dan/california]

I wonder if he has been "invited" to join a Storm Z unit?

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

That was CNN and The Economist, not Fox News FFS.

No, to be followed by software and hardware upgrades so that we can start putting deep strike pressure back on.  Seriously guys, we are becoming an freakin echo chamber in here.  Were all those Leos and Bradley's knocked out in minefields "Russian propaganda" too.  It is war.  The enemy does not sit around and happily get HIMARs-ed (or whatever) without trying to do something about it.  This kind of back and forth is just what happens.

Seriously google "HIMARs jammed" and see what you get.  Either this is one helluva complex hoax or maybe the RA came up with a counter.  

You misunderstand.  Someone in congress or in pro-putin punditry land will say that based on these reports.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 

No, she doesn't need GPS. Otherwise, it would be as if the same V-1 rocket flew during the Second World War. There was no satellite navigation back then, but the V-1 had an autopilot. JDAM bombs do not have an inertial system. They are aimed at the target only using GPS. However, we have seen a number of cases of successful use of these bombs by Ukraine

Why do this? after all, the entire OSINT is at a glance. No “special” sites needed

Seriously, you are dangerously close to going on the misinformation list:

"Guidance is facilitated through a tail control system and a GPS-aided inertial navigation system (INS). The navigation system is initialized by transfer alignment from the aircraft that provides position and velocity vectors from the aircraft systems. Once released from the aircraft, the JDAM autonomously navigates to the designated target coordinates. Target coordinates can be loaded into the aircraft before takeoff, manually altered by the aircrew in flight prior to weapon release, or entered by a datalink from onboard targeting equipment, such as the LITENING II or "Sniper" targeting pods. In its most accurate mode, the JDAM system will provide a minimum weapon accuracy CEP of 16 feet (5 m) or less when a GPS signal is available. If the GPS signal is jammed or lost, the JDAM can still achieve a 98-foot (30 m) CEP or less for free flight times up to 100 seconds"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Direct_Attack_Munition

"The JDAM’s name is – to an extent – a misnomer, as it is not a weapon per se. Instead, the term covers a panoply of kits outfitting an array of ‘dumb’ bombs. These kits equip the mid- and tail-section of an unguided bomb and contain the GPS and an Inertial Guidance System (INS)." 

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/jamming-jdam-threat-us-munitions-russian-electronic-warfare

Or is this Russian propaganda too?

You are really invested on INS as some sort of magic bullet.  As I recall the system will ensure the munition flies in a straight line and needs GPS to ensure that line is pointed at the correct X.  The fact that the RA has messed with the GPS is not in doubt...unless of course one is sitting in an echo chamber.

As to "Why do this?"  Sure the Information Hamburger Helper of OSINT has never ever been biased or skewed.  Why would we ever need to consult expertise and objective sources when we have a glorified gossip-net to rely upon?

And none of this addresses the initial discussion point - a forest of freakin balloons that are not likely to stop the damned Shahed in the first place.

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

You misunderstand.  Someone in congress or in pro-putin punditry land will say that based on these reports.

Well someone in opposition pro-putin punditry land can just as easily say "Hey we sent all those HIMARs which are supposed to be the unstoppable Red Hand of Mars, and the UA has not gone anywhere...why are we still wasting money?"

I mean haters gonna hate one way or another but we should not start straying from facts because we don't like them.

[Zeleban]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Seriously, you are dangerously close to going on the misinformation list:

"Guidance is facilitated through a tail control system and a GPS-aided inertial navigation system (INS). The navigation system is initialized by transfer alignment from the aircraft that provides position and velocity vectors from the aircraft systems. Once released from the aircraft, the JDAM autonomously navigates to the designated target coordinates. Target coordinates can be loaded into the aircraft before takeoff, manually altered by the aircrew in flight prior to weapon release, or entered by a datalink from onboard targeting equipment, such as the LITENING II or "Sniper" targeting pods. In its most accurate mode, the JDAM system will provide a minimum weapon accuracy CEP of 16 feet (5 m) or less when a GPS signal is available. If the GPS signal is jammed or lost, the JDAM can still achieve a 98-foot (30 m) CEP or less for free flight times up to 100 seconds"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Direct_Attack_Munition

"The JDAM’s name is – to an extent – a misnomer, as it is not a weapon per se. Instead, the term covers a panoply of kits outfitting an array of ‘dumb’ bombs. These kits equip the mid- and tail-section of an unguided bomb and contain the GPS and an Inertial Guidance System (INS)." 

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/jamming-jdam-threat-us-munitions-russian-electronic-warfare

Or is this Russian propaganda too?

You are really invested on INS as some sort of magic bullet.  As I recall the system will ensure the munition flies in a straight line and needs GPS to ensure that line is pointed at the correct X.  The fact that the RA has messed with the GPS is not in doubt...unless of course one is sitting in an echo chamber.

As to "Why do this?"  Sure the Information Hamburger Helper of OSINT has never ever been biased or skewed.  Why would we ever need to consult expertise and objective sources when we have a glorified gossip-net to rely upon?

And none of this addresses the initial discussion point - a forest of freakin balloons that are not likely to stop the damned Shahed in the first place.

 

Ok Ok. I admit, I am a disinformer . I must also admit that your knowledge of missile weapons greatly exceeds mine.

Russian electronic warfare destroys HIMARS in batches.

INS cannot exist without GPS

OSINT is a bunch of gossips that you shouldn't listen to, unlike the New York Times. 

I'm ready to admit anything, just let's stop this stupid argument

 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well someone in opposition pro-putin punditry land can just as easily say "Hey we sent all those HIMARs which are supposed to be the unstoppable Red Hand of Mars, and the UA has not gone anywhere...why are we still wasting money?"

I mean haters gonna hate one way or another but we should not start straying from facts because we don't like them.

Yeah, they'll say anything.  I am not straying from facts.  There's problems, it's a war, I'm not discounting the reporting.  I was just musing on what comes next in some dumb F's twitter thread.  

So while I've got your attention.... What do you think of the Kherson business?  I don't see how UKR gets very far but maybe this is just a low cost operation to stretch RU resources?  What's your take?

[kimbosbread]

From what I had heard some of the problems with JDAMs were not initializing the INS on the tarmac. With GLMRS I could imagine something similar happening.

Ultimately any weapon can be countered given the requisite money and time. That’s why el-cheapo autonomous drones are so scary: How do you counter them at scale, without making a system that is so expensive you could buy a million of your own drones instead?

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Yeah, they'll say anything.  I am not straying from facts.  There's problems, it's a war, I'm not discounting the reporting.  I was just musing on what comes next in some dumb F's twitter thread.  

So while I've got your attention.... What do you think of the Kherson business?  I don't see how UKR gets very far but maybe this is just a low cost operation to stretch RU resources?  What's your take?

So I suspect that the UA is conducting a form of non-linear campaigning - another feature that comes out of SOF, been a trend in this war to watch what used to be SOF getting pulled deeper into the conventional world.  So rather than a linear systemic campaign of 1+2+3 = 6, they are really at X + Y = Z, solve for X.  So this means essentially projecting a lot of uncertainty on an opponents system and seeing what will happen.  They tried western breaches last May/Jun...did not work.  They then went to nips and bites along the line with a view to seeing when and where the RA line would fail.

The op south of Kherson has the same feel.  By creating lateral strain - forcing RA to shift resources left and right, they are likely looking to create fractures and fissures.  If it works and they see an opportunity they can try to exploit.  This matches the battlefield reality of the toxicity of mass.  Doctrine says mass forces in the back.  Try and main axis, then a few secondary and be ready to exploit whatever works rapidly in a Mission Command pull manner.  Problem being that massing is now highly visible, even by RA ISR.  So if the UA park a couple Mech Bdes 10km back they are seen, so the RA know where to put there c-forces.  This, plus crazy ranges, are why troop densities in this war are so low but lines are holding.

The UA answer is to not park a couple Bdes anywhere but instead put tactical pressure along the line while 1) still conducting deep strikes and 2) offering a sink hole at Avdiivka.  Kherson is one of those moves.  It is definitely not a full on river assault, if it was we would know it.  But it puts the threat of one on the table.  The RA can swing resources over to counter, further weakening elsewhere or try to ignore it.

In strategic terms it is called "negotiating while advancing".  You can win by increments until the opponents system buckles or you go as far as you need to - like a dog that keeps creeping into the living room one paw at a time.  You keep tossing it back.  But eventually you have to take a pee and then it steals the couch.  You get back and it is already snuggled up to the kids and you have lost as your system collapses.

Whether Kherson becomes a full couch grab depends on how long the RA can hold it.   

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Whether Kherson becomes a full couch grab depends on how long the RA can hold it.   

My thinking is that Russia understands that it isn't a full "couch grab" and that is shaping its response.  Which indicates, to us, that Russia doesn't have resources to spare otherwise it would be pushing hard to secure the entire left bank instead of barely keeping the line as it currently is.  So this is good!  Russia thinks it's only a distraction and is minimizing how much it gets distracted by it.  Do that in a few places and suddenly Russia has got to worry that one or more might transform into a larger threat.

The real risk to Russia is that Ukraine firmly establishes itself, even in a limited way, on the left bank and uses that for some larger move down the road.  I'm sure Russia understands this very well, however we have seen since Feb 2022 that Russia doesn't make it a habit of thinking longer term.  So they will likely allow Ukraine to firmly establish itself because to do otherwise would mean making near term painful decisions which it doesn't want to do.  Long term ramifications be damned.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 I'm ready to admit anything, just let's stop this stupid argument

 

 

On the main topic, I believe control of Kinburn spit and the lands south and east of there (to Oleshki/Oleshki sands, preferably) is the single most valuable chunk of additional real estate for Ukraine to take back prior to contemplating any cease fire.  And it just happens to be the hardest bit for the Russians to sustain and defend.

This is a very unique battlespace, and it seems to me that Ukraine holds all the cards here. If Ivan is determined to hold here, the Ukies  can beat the ever living hell out of him all winter and through the spring, with great economy of force.

Also....

Translation: Following the digitalization of the route of the Dnieper in November 2023 (according to Sentinel-2 images), I found a German map from 1942 where we can notice that the river has today returned to its initial route.

The marshier the better! 

Edited November 22, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Ah, remember the good old times when we would be quipping about Ivans crapping their pants when they glimpsed one of these beauties?

2.  I have no idea what it detects but evidently it ain't gonna be doing that no mo'

More here:  https://nitter.net/HamWa07/status/1727057429152649360#m

3.  This is just as advertised, a 'day in the life', several long GoPro sequences, unedited. No 'dramatic' action takes place; the section doesn't leave their trenches until they remount at the end and never see the enemy (he's in grenade range at one point), but guys do get wounded (female medic). Skip to daylight at 2:30 or so.

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Harmon Rabb]

 

AFU Bradley in action.

Intense.

 

[Fenris]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

3.  This is just as advertised, a 'day in the life', several long GoPro sequences, unedited. No 'dramatic' action takes place; the section doesn't leave their trenches until they remount at the end and never see the enemy (he's in grenade range at one point), but guys do get wounded (female medic). Skip to daylight at 2:30 or so.

 

Thanks, very interesting.  Some of the best footage I've seen to be honest.

Edits - 19min mark guy gets hit with shrapnel right in front of her from a tree burst.

Enemy armour around 22 min?  Stressful

Edited November 22, 2023 by Fenris

[LongLeftFlank]

17 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Corroboration? (I don't know the source)

 

 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

3.  This is just as advertised, a 'day in the life', several long GoPro sequences, unedited. No 'dramatic' action takes place; the section doesn't leave their trenches until they remount at the end and never see the enemy (he's in grenade range at one point), but guys do get wounded (female medic). Skip to daylight at 2:30 or so.

Commander stays very calm, despite his folks getting wounded in succession and himself too. Just by looking how wounded soldier with cut out pants (beefy bearded one, funny nickname "Alkaida" ) shivers one can almost feel this cold in the trench. Kudos to female medic too. Oh, and sound of tracks definitellycan  get on nerves.

On light side, they are very well armed and clearly know their stuff.

Anyway, worth to watch. Pretty educational video, I would say, even if no enemies are visible.

PS. And summary of actions from one of our military analysts:

"ONE OF THE IMPORTANT DAYS IN THE EAST" Fragment of the fighting near Avdiyevka, probably of an infantry platoon from the 47th Mechanized Brigade. ....

A ride in combat vehicles... Night rotation of infantry platoons in the "Reks" position, taking over the position at night and fighting to maintain it, dressing the wounded and the brilliant calm of the commanding non-commissioned officer, which spreads to the entire platoon, despite heavy fighting with the "Peters" (Russians).

and "Pitery" hold on... they fight... they don't give up

At times the defense is circular... but we hold on

. Our guys support "Żelazek" and "Architect" (platoons). The commander tells the "German" with MG2 (German machine gun) to save ammunition, and the "German's" helper and ammunition keeper is... "Jewrej", i.e. a Jew [funny, cause the other guys is called Alkaida ][Russian artillery fires dangerously and frequently, and has unexploded bombs (one can be heard at the beginning of the film). Interestingly, women in combat units fight like men.

The film was shot from the position of the command point and the nest for wounded...

Then fighting  in the trenches with the attack of Russian infantry, and in the distance you can hear the bursting of Ukrainian artillery cluster shells. There are probably fewer "Peters" now... Grenades are flying, and drones are flying somewhere in the distance... but ours (I think)

Russian fire wounds the Ukrainian commander. There is a hole, it doesn't matter, the wounded non-commissioned officer continues to command the platoon's operations, and the platoon fights...

You can see that the army is under fire, and stress does not paralyze you but helps you make the right decisions, just like during training A rally of Russian tanks into positions, followed by Russian infantry, but in the "German" position - with MG3. The commander ordered the "ateshniks" (anti-tank section from the abbreviation AT) to let the tanks pass rather than expose the platoon to "meat from their fragmentation shells". The "Żelasko" position took care of the tanks.

Supposedly it put something down... it had more "atheshniks" The commander is ordered to leave the position... Platoon is preparing to evacuate. The commander will determine the order of loading into the wagons. The nest of wounded goes first The "German" is the last one, but he complains that he must have left too much ammunition, which he took so hard to bring to the "Peters"... War wagons arrive and put up a smoke screen and use fire to weaken the retreat of the companions

 

Evacuation, and the heavy M2 Bradley provides solace and shelter Hurry to the assembly area... medics are waiting there. Evacuation of the wounded and rest... This day was good, no losses, only hurts... I recommend. Movie approx. 30 min. Best regards and thank you

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Beleg85

[chris talpas]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The successful jamming of military grade guidance systems is not a big issue right now.  Jamming of civilian types, however, is.  I just read an article about how EW is screwing up civilian aircraft related to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

Ukraine is still smashing things quite nicely and quite accurately despite all of Russia's EW, but apparently there have been situations where the CEP was affected.  Maybe enough to matter, but maybe not.

Here's an article on how jamming and spoofing is overcome:

https://pages.crfs.com/blog/how-to-deal-with-gps-jamming-and-spoofing

I have no idea what capabilities are built into the JDAMs and HIMARS munitions right now, but I would be surprised if "none" was the answer.

I found a defense company selling anti-jamming systems to military customers, so this isn't a future thing it's a now thing.

Steve

I hope one day a book details the evolution of drone warfare and EW of this conflict similar to RV Jones Most Secret War that gave a great history of the development of radar, radio navigation, and EW during WW2.