How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

[Caveats galore] These were classic Soviet tactics in WW2, I believe? In the later, Bagration stage I mean. Drove the Germans bananas because they had to squash even tiny bridgeheads immediately before they rapidly grew. The Soviets, I believe, then poured men into whichever bridgeheads had not been squashed, presenting the impossible task of a multitude of danger points to the overstretched defenders.

Allied approach was a lot more deliberate, focussed and aimed to overwhelm locally with a massive force, while Soviets aimed to overwhelm operationally (sorta) with smaller forces, expanding whichever one proved successful. Former was less loss-prone, the latter was costly but almost guaranteed success, eventually.

There other points along the Dnipr where the ZSU has bridgeheads. Perhaps we'll see them expanding soon.

Forcing Ivan to shove VDV regiments (or whatever their actual field strength may be) and artillery to the (very squishy) utmost end of their line is just awesome.

Especially if UA can effectively sever the Perekop isthmus, forcing LOCs to take the long way from Donetsk.

Taking back the Dnpro delta seems like a pretty major strategic winback for Ukraine, even if the Russians manage to wall it off with a bazillion mines again somewhere around their (defunct) aqueduct.

But, it's gonna be basically jungle warfare there. Forget the heavies.

 

Edited November 9, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[cesmonkey]

Article and podcast episode:

Quote

PERHAPS THE MOST lasting damage the war has done to science in Russia is to accelerate the ongoing exodus of scientists. A sensitive subject since the 1990s, its magnitude is hard to gauge. But Johannes Wachs, who studies computer science at Corvinus University of Budapest, says emigration among the tech community can give a sense of the potential scale. He analyzed GitHub, a popular open-source developer site, for changed or deleted location information in its list of software developers. He estimates that between 11% and 28% of Russia’s developers have left since the war began.

Another clue comes from the 2022 industry survey, which asked scientists how the “special military operation” affected their intention to leave Russia. One-third of respondents said it “somewhat” or “strongly” increased their intention to leave. For scientists under age 39, that figure was slightly over 50%.

 

[dan/california]

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1722252940415787237

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Whose shattered tree hellscape mod are you using?

 

Edited November 9, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[poesel]

Ukraine achieved 90% of preconditions for the beginning of negotiations to join the EU.
Talk are planned to start in January.

Also, Moldova and Georgia now have candidate state.

 

[acrashb]

29 minutes ago, poesel said:

Ukraine achieved 90% of preconditions for the beginning of negotiations to join the EU.

What are the remaining 10%, assuming they can be neatly summarized?

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Lovely* mapwork here.

https://nitter.net/Pouletvolant3/status/1722548700281528536#m

 

* My brother once told my nephew:  "Son, the only time a man should ever need to use 'lovely' or 'fabulous' in a sentence is in describing the legendary city of El Dorado."

[JonS]

@acrashb

"Is at peace [Y/N]"?

Edited November 9, 2023 by JonS

[Harmon Rabb]

Bizarre does not begin describing this. Those kids do not look very excited. I just hope they are not forced to die for this nonsense when they are older, by someone else in the Kremlin.

[Kinophile]

That is exactly what is going to happen to them. 

[Kraft]

Quote

Modified Lancet kamikaze drones were spotted, which are capable of penetrating self-made defenses in the form of nets on armored vehicles

Some Lancets received additional cameras that provide LIDAR - a system for obtaining information about distant objects using the reflection of light and its scattering in transparent and translucent environments

With this technology, the combat part of the drone detonates at a certain distance from the target, the explosion creates a cumulative jet that reaches the object and hits it. Several meters do not reduce the penetrating properties of such ammunition

If the modification begins to gain momentum, the equipment of the ZSU is protected by nets, which could not boast of great efficiency even before, will become defenseless

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Lovely* mapwork here.

https://nitter.net/Pouletvolant3/status/1722548700281528536#m

 

* My brother once told my nephew:  "Son, the only time a man should ever need to use 'lovely' or 'fabulous' in a sentence is in describing the legendary city of El Dorado."

Barbarian.  Clearly there are times that no other word will do:

[danfrodo]

I'll file this under 'hopium'.   Feller here talks about pontoon bridge possibilities at Krynky.  We'll see.  In my mind, kinda pointless to do this over many weeks as RU will simply plant a bunch of mines and put some schmucks in holes, supported by some arty & drones, and nothing will happen.  If one were to do something like this I would think it would need to happen fast enough that the enemy can't spend weeks countering it with cheap defenses.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/9/2204663/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-is-surprisingly-close-to-securing-a-pontoon-bridge-site?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web

 

[Battlefront.com]

On 11/8/2023 at 6:13 PM, Harmon Rabb said:

Is Russia going to repay them in the oh so valuable rubble? Did I spell that right? no matter these days.

According to the WSJ article that kicked all of this off, it seems to be mostly centered on Russia trying to take back helicopter engines:

Here's a bit more info on it:

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3784539-russia-wants-to-buy-back-helicopter-engines-from-partner-countries-due-to-losses-in-ukraine-wsj.html

This is not really surprising.  The high intensity use of helicopters must be using up stocks of replacement parts and full engines.  This might be complicated by the fact that before 2014 their helicopter engines were made in Ukraine by Motor Sich.

https://uacrisis.org/en/4234-ukraines-helicopter-engine-producer-looks-west-alternative-russian-market

I have no idea what Russia did after 2014 to address the loss of its suppliers in Ukraine, but if it's the usual Russian thing they probably increased domestic production by a bit and outsources the rest.  If they outsourced they probably lost access to those sources since sanctions.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

18 hours ago, Zeleban said:

You can treat the active actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the left bank of the Dnieper in any way you like. Consider this a “PR gamble with blood”, a pointless waste of resources, or seriously consider the possibility of a “breakthrough to Crimea” in this direction.

But so far, real events indicate that the Russian command in the Crimean-Tavrian direction, at least, received a significant “headache” that was clearly not planned by them. This is already a fact, no matter how you evaluate and interpret it.

Thanks for the translations of Mashovets.  What he said above is exactly what many of us have been hoping for even before the counter offensive started.  Russia can not afford to ignore a move across the river, yet it also can't defend everywhere equally well.  It's been clear for a long time that they've been drawing forces away from the Dnepr to fight elsewhere.  The 7th Mountain Air Assault Div is the highest profile unit they moved out of this area.  I think it is quite telling that they are trying to move it back in.

Which gets me to the other interesting part of the report:

18 hours ago, Zeleban said:

However, the fact is that the Russian command is now unable to pull out the main forces of the 7th Airborne Division from under Verbovoy in the Tokmak direction “purely physically.” The division's 108th and 247th air assault regiments are closely involved in the fighting. And the 56th Airborne Regiment, which has already been reorganized “almost anew” 2 times, can send “to Teplinsky” right now no more than 2 of its battalions. Although, probably, “a little later,” this Feodosian rabble will go to the Dnieper in full force (if it hasn’t already).

Russia made the decision to move units of the 7th to fight the counter offensive because they ran out of forces to man the line.  They can't be pulled from those positions and sent back to the Dnepr unless there is an equivalent force to replace them.  Russia clearly doesn't have such forces lying around.  What they do have are lower quality units which they seem convinced need to be invested into Avdiivka.  So now what will they do?

I'm a large supporter of the work Ukraine is doing on the left bank of the Dnepr.  I don't know that it will be more than an irritation for Russia, but even that is worth investing in.

Steve

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Bizarre does not begin describing this. Those kids do not look very excited. I just hope they are not forced to die for this nonsense when they are older, by someone else in the Kremlin.

The kind of thing you'd see in a US made eastern European road-trip comedy of the 80s.

Parody is dead.

[Offshoot]

Russia deployed all available reserves, military expert says - https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-deployed-all-available-reserves-military-expert-says-50367158.html

Quote

The Russian military has committed all available reserves to the frontlines in Ukraine, Ukrainian Armed Forces reserve Colonel and military expert Roman Svitan said in an interview with NV Radio on Nov. 8.

 

[dan/california]

I think the BTG concept is pretty much dead, but Russia lost the equivalent of a whole one yesterday. 

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, danfrodo said:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/9/2204663/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-is-surprisingly-close-to-securing-a-pontoon-bridge-site?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web

 

Well here again, the conventional thinking is that a 'bridgehead' must ultimately need to build (and defend) a bridge, in order to pour mech columns across it for the Big Push and the Breakout.

Nope, take a leaf from the 1942 Imperial Japanese Army or the PAVN. This is bayou warfare, low density infiltration, with access to heavy fire support strongly favouring the Ukes.

Russia should be facing at least as much difficulty resupplying its forces at this far end of the line as Ukraine does slipping boatloads of supplies across by night.

Difficult conditions for both sides, to say the least? Hell, yes. But we know 100% who is the tougher side.

And if this does ultimately wind down to a cease fire in place, Ukraine definitely wants to hold these wetlands, for numerous reasons.

Edited November 10, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Bulletpoint]

19 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Interesting (if long) video of a talk on nuclear escalation in Ukraine and deterrence stability. Some interesting stuff about nuclear threats in October 2022 too.

 

 

Very interesting. Especially the part where he says the US intelligence estimated that the risk of Russians using nuclear weapons in the fall of 2022 went up to 'a coinflip'.

[Carolus]

 

Ukraine continues to attack the Russian fleet. It looks like the boat drones made solid contact with the sides.

Serna class looks like this:

 

Transport ship that can carry armoured vehicles, with a frontal ramp. 

 

 

[Butschi]

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

I think the BTG concept is pretty much dead, but Russia lost the equivalent of a whole one yesterday. 

Dramatic if true but

Quote

These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Nov. 9, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

there is enough in this sentence that suggest these numbers should not be stated as facts.

Sorry to sound like a broken record. I can't help it.

[Harmon Rabb]

Your Friday morning (or whatever time it is in your time zone) F-16 related news gentlemen.

 

[Hapless]

Just wait until these are automatic homing and deployable via artillery
 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Imagine how angry the Russian delegation would be if the President of Kazakhstan greeted them in Ukrainian.