How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

30 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

 

W RU burning up lots of what would be operational reserves, maybe this can work?  Put light forces across on wide front, supported by arty, with relatively few roads for RU on which to move in mobile forces.  So becomes infantry/artillery fight.  Interesting.  But if we can see this so can RU, so can UKR do this before RU pours in the mobiks?

[Haiduk]

Likley results of failed Russian attack on Kupiansk direction - in this time they tried to advance from Lyman Pershyi to Oskil river

Soldier of 115th mech.brigade finished off damaged and abandoned Russian tank with RGW-90 Matador

[sburke]

Russians and windows....

Russian anti-war activist dies after ‘fall from height’ (yahoo.com)

At the end of that article

Quote

On Friday, Russian riot police raided a mosque in a Moscow commuter town and forced the men to join the army.

yeah that is gonna go over well.

[Haiduk]

Russians are testing new type of kamikdze drones of long range, but much smaller than Shakheds. Yesterday two were launched on Kyiv oblast and one of them struck Vyshhorod town, also one explosion probably was in Irpin'. No significant damage, this is a sound of this small sh...t. 

Now again drone attack alarm in Kyiv oblast an reportedly again against Vyshhorod

Press-secreter of Air Defense Command told that they investigated fragments of these two drones of unknown type - they had engines, being ordered on AliExpress. 

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

"Azov" fighters conducted a raid in the forest near Kreminna and destroyed some Russian engineer equipment, including a truck with manupulator, which set dragon teeth. 

And a video of "zero day of recruit" in "Azov" brigade. Pay attantion - how many young men in comparison with usual ground forces units. "Azov" and 3rd assault brigade have own recruitment system, own phisical tests and own 4-weeks training program (though after standard training of recruits in other training centers)

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Vanir Ausf B]

8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russians hit a house, where allegedly were deployed UKR troops with LMUR heavy helicopter missile.

LMUR can ve launched from Mi-28, Ka-52

More specifically Mi-29NM and Ka-52M. Fortunately, Russia probably only has a handful of these models available. The contracts were signed in 2021 and the first 10 Ka-52M were delivered in January of this year.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Compilation of Special Unit Kraken clips, some unseen. I guess recent if leaves just turned.

Lots of interesting things to see in this video.  Thanks.

1.  rare show of the squad level micro drones that Australia (and others?) donated.

2.  a modified truck with retractable mortar.  It looks domestic Ukraine production.  Haiduk... do you know anything about these vehicles?

3.  I don't care who is getting run over by vehicles, I still find it hard to watch.  Not as much if it's Russians though.

 

Tactically, what I find most interesting is that this attack had a single BMP ferrying infantry to a treeline.  Was this because they didn't have enough operational vehicles or was it because they didn't want to risk more than one at a time?  Could be either.

This sort of attack COULD work if the infantry was up for it.  What should have happened is that as soon as the BMP stopped the infantry would hop off *AND* move far away from the vehicle.  The Squad Leader would then let the driver know they are all clear and the vehicle would turn around and leave as quickly as possible.  Casualties and supplies would be moved out of the drop off area before proceeding to carry out their mission (whatever it might be).  When the BMP came in next the casualties should have been evacuated.

What in fact happened is the infantry chaotically dismounted, stuck close to the BMP for protection (I presume), and the driver chose to drive away without any communication with the dismounts, running them over in the process.  Casualties and supplies were left where they were dropped off and so the next time the BMP came in it ran them over.  It seems some effort was made to move casualties towards the end of the video, but there was still live ammo sitting out in the open.  Not to mention the cluster of dismounts clustered around the knocked out tank.  There didn't appear to be any organized, or even disorganized, MEDEVAC of the wounded.

What a fustercluck.

Steve

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

More specifically Mi-29NM and Ka-52M. Fortunately, Russia probably only has a handful of these models available. The contracts were signed in 2021 and the first 10 Ka-52M were delivered in January of this year.

They already lost one Ka-52M

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

And a video of "zero day of recruit" in "Azov" brigade. Pay attantion - how many young men in comparison with usual ground forces units. "Azov" and 3rd assault brigade have own recruitment system, own phisical tests and own 4-weeks training program (though after standard training of recruits in other training centers)

What a bunch of wimps!  I didn't see even ONE of these guys breaking a board over his head or kicking a cinder block on someone's chest.  That's what real soldiers do, according to Russian media sources.

Steve

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

a modified truck with retractable mortar.  It looks domestic Ukraine production.  Haiduk... do you know anything about these vehicles?

This is "Scorpion" - US-localized 120 mm Spanish "Alacran" SP-mortars. The system is mounted on Land Cruiser. According to Oryx two already were lost.

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Usual morning %)

 

[TheVulture]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder if these friendly fire incidents are related to Russia having to put conscripts into AD positions instead of contractors.  Since the units are deployed on Russian territory they could legally do that and free up contractors for frontline positions that can't be staffed by conscripts.

Steve

My uninformed speculation is to wonder if the recent spate of friendly fire incidents is due to some new cyber or electronic warfare capability becoming available that's enabling Ukraine to feed dodgy information to Russia AD to encouraging friendly targeting. But that's based on wishful thinking with no evidence to back it up (and if it was true, I[m pretty sure no-one would be talking about it in public anyway)

[dan/california]

I suspect something similar is making a comeback in Southern Ukraine as we speak.

[Carolus]

Drones destroying Russian surveillance equipment, by Maygar.  

There is basically no place that really provides shelter when it is in range of small maneuverable copter drones.

Seems like some targets had to be attacked more than once.

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Drones destroying Russian surveillance equipment, by Maygar.  

There is basically no place that really provides shelter when it is in range of small maneuverable copter drones.

Seems like some targets had to be attacked more than once.

 

Again and again and again we see cheap ISR identifying targets that either MUST remain in place or are parked long enough to target.  Then another cheap drone is sent in to destroy it.  These systems must cost hundreds of thousands of USD (US ones cost low millions).

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This is "Scorpion" - US-localized 120 mm Spanish "Alacran" SP-mortars. The system is mounted on Land Cruiser. According to Oryx two already were lost.

 

Thanks!  This is an interesting and impressive vehicle.  Small, nimble, and far less expensive to acquire and maintain than a typical armored platform makes it a pretty obvious capable system.  Coupled with the digital fire control system... well, it gets even better

Interestingly, Ukraine signed a deal in August 2021 with the US manufacturer of these systems:

https://soldiersystems.net/2022/10/10/8-rounds-2-minutes-see-the-gmp-scorpion-mortar-system-at-ausa/
 

Article with specs:

https://soldiersystems.net/2022/10/10/8-rounds-2-minutes-see-the-gmp-scorpion-mortar-system-at-ausa/

Sales video:

 

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

It's big, it's super expensive, but if it can protect itself from commercial FPV drones this could be a critical part of establishing a defense bubble.  Now all that has to happen is have the thing built.

https://www.defenseadvancement.com/news/solid-state-laser-weapon-to-be-delivered-to-us-army/

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/07/lockheed-secures-221m-army-deal-for-high-powered-air-defense-laser-prototype/

Looks like these are supposed to be delivered sometime in 2025.  All FOUR of them.

In related news, an article just written about the competition by American companies to produce much longer ranged 155mm fire (more than 2x current range) using legacy systems.  The Pentagon is also looking at Ukraine for guidance on towed vs. self propelled artillery and what to do for shorter range needs (hint... 120mm mortar might edge out the 105mm howitzer):

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/10/shooting-for-the-moon-armys-2025-budget-to-reflect-artillery-revamp/

Steve

[dan/california]

55 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's big, it's super expensive, but if it can protect itself from commercial FPV drones this could be a critical part of establishing a defense bubble.  Now all that has to happen is have the thing built.

https://www.defenseadvancement.com/news/solid-state-laser-weapon-to-be-delivered-to-us-army/

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/07/lockheed-secures-221m-army-deal-for-high-powered-air-defense-laser-prototype/

Looks like these are supposed to be delivered sometime in 2025.  All FOUR of them.

In related news, an article just written about the competition by American companies to produce much longer ranged 155mm fire (more than 2x current range) using legacy systems.  The Pentagon is also looking at Ukraine for guidance on towed vs. self propelled artillery and what to do for shorter range needs (hint... 120mm mortar might edge out the 105mm howitzer):

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/10/shooting-for-the-moon-armys-2025-budget-to-reflect-artillery-revamp/

Steve

My big question about the new super long range 155 is can they get some sort of guidance on it besides GPS. Because at the ~100km plus range these guys seem to be shooting for suddenly barrel artillery has a real contribution make in making the Taiwan straight a truly unhealthy place for the PLA Navy if it can hit moving targets.

https://www.nammo.com/story/the-range-revolution/

There is also some need to think about the possibility that the laser physics people have a real breakthrough or two. Multi megawatt laser systems with high rates of fire would be a very bid deal for legacy everything.

Edited October 22, 2023 by dan/california

[kimbosbread]

I’m not bullish on super long range tube artillery if just alone for the barrel wear problem you get with faster moving projectiles (no shade intended on the patron saint of ultra-high velocity cannons). Same issue you see with the new US infantry rifle in 6.8mm, or a modern round like 6.5 Creedmoor. Or a railgun. Heat dissipation is a pain. As is pointed out above, guidance is kind of important too, and is expensive ($100k for an Excalibur round).

Once you have added all these costs to the system, are you really better off than just having a bunch of micro-cruise-missile drones with similar or better range, plus loitering, which are likely much cheaper too, and can be launched from any old pickup truck or speedboat? Or the nastier underwater variant…

Edited October 23, 2023 by kimbosbread

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

I’m not bullish on super long range tube artillery if just alone for the barrel wear problem you get with faster moving projectiles (no shade intended on the patron saint of ultra-high velocity cannons). Same issue you see with the new US infantry rifle in 6.8mm, or a modern round like 6.5 Creedmoor. Or a railgun. Heat dissipation is a pain. As is pointed out above, guidance is kind of important too, and is expensive ($100k for an Excalibur round).

Once you have added all these costs to the system, are you really better off than just having a bunch of micro-cruise-missile drones with similar or better range, plus loitering, which are likely much cheaper too, and can be launched from any old pickup truck or speedboat? Or the nastier underwater variant…

Actually NAMMO is getting the range by building a ramjet into the round. So all the actual gun has to do is get it up to a mach number where that works. Do drones and rockets fired from completely disposable launchers make more sense? In many cases they probably do. A great deal depends on how defensive systems develop. I can see it being much less expensive to intercept a low speed drone, than an artillery shell that is probably doing mach 2. Details matter to the final math. There are enough open questions on what lines of development are going to really work that the Pentagon probably needs to at keep doing some development work in a bunch of different areas. 

I am also strongly of the opinion that the cost of things like Excalibur would come WAY down if just committed to buying enough of the things to automate many of the production processes.

Edited October 23, 2023 by dan/california

[fireship4]

On 10/22/2023 at 12:05 AM, Beleg85 said:

Short but nontheless interesting piece from propagandist Sladkov.

Russian propaganda try to convince audience that it took measures to use Tuvinians as "Russian Navajo", using their hectic language instead of code to communicate between units. I heard different opinions as to how widespread this phenomena actually is in muscovite army- it doesn't look like they took systemic effort to employ it along whole theatre, in manner of US Navy in WWII. Code talkers from various minorities (they have a wide selection to choose from, admittedly) for now seem to be ad hoc solution taken by various commanders.

Worth to note Ukrainians use Hungarians and Huculs in the same manner.

 

 

"Хуйзнаетtalkers/Huiznaettalkers"?

"Хуйз нает": "Hui zna-et": "Who the f*ck knows".

Quote

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by fireship4

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's big, it's super expensive, but if it can protect itself from commercial FPV drones this could be a critical part of establishing a defense bubble.  Now all that has to happen is have the thing built.

https://www.defenseadvancement.com/news/solid-state-laser-weapon-to-be-delivered-to-us-army/

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/07/lockheed-secures-221m-army-deal-for-high-powered-air-defense-laser-prototype/

Looks like these are supposed to be delivered sometime in 2025.  All FOUR of them.

In related news, an article just written about the competition by American companies to produce much longer ranged 155mm fire (more than 2x current range) using legacy systems.  The Pentagon is also looking at Ukraine for guidance on towed vs. self propelled artillery and what to do for shorter range needs (hint... 120mm mortar might edge out the 105mm howitzer):

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/10/shooting-for-the-moon-armys-2025-budget-to-reflect-artillery-revamp/

Steve

I am highly skeptical about direct energy C-UAS, let alone C-RAM.  It may be technically feasible for static point defence systems one can plug into a power grid.  But for mobile defence I think the energy bill is just too high.  Further one would need thousands of these systems (which is what GD wants) to deal with the levels of systems we see in this war, let alone swarms likely in the next one.  These things will be 1) highly visible as that much energy being pumped into the environment is going to get detected…bit more juice than a pigeon heart, and 2) will be a prime target for all the systems that can see it.  We would likely lose them too fast to replace.

And then there is volume.  A direct energy weapon that can target and engage dozens or even hundreds of small tac UAS/loitering munitions at range would be a game changer for more than AD.  Such a weapon could target people and vehicles at ranges and rates that would change warfare forever if such a system existed.

No, this is typical western military industrial planning.  We have swarms of small UAS that costs a few hundred to a few thousand dollars each that we need to stop.  Of course we will develop and buy a laser- phased AD system that costs hundreds of millions and needs to be put on a big truck….makes perfect sense.

Or we take another UAS that costs a few hundred dollars and built it to kill other UAS.  

[Battlefront.com]

57 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am highly skeptical about direct energy C-UAS, let alone C-RAM.  It may be technically feasible for static point defence systems one can plug into a power grid.  But for mobile defence I think the energy bill is just too high.  Further one would need thousands of these systems (which is what GD wants) to deal with the levels of systems we see in this war, let alone swarms likely in the next one.  These things will be 1) highly visible as that much energy being pumped into the environment is going to get detected…bit more juice than a pigeon heart, and 2) will be a prime target for all the systems that can see it.  We would likely lose them too fast to replace.

And then there is volume.  A direct energy weapon that can target and engage dozens or even hundreds of small tac UAS/loitering munitions at range would be a game changer for more than AD.  Such a weapon could target people and vehicles at ranges and rates that would change warfare forever if such a system existed.

No, this is typical western military industrial planning.  We have swarms of small UAS that costs a few hundred to a few thousand dollars each that we need to stop.  Of course we will develop and buy a laser- phased AD system that costs hundreds of millions and needs to be put on a big truck….makes perfect sense.

Or we take another UAS that costs a few hundred dollars and built it to kill other UAS.  

Agreed.  I think the best case for these mega huge and expensive systems is for defending bases that are high risk.  Remember, there are two basic threats during peacetime:

1.  lone wolf or simple organizations that can do something, but not a lot all at once at one time.

2.  complex organizations that can pull off some sort of sophisticated attack with a ton of planning.

For #1 a big assed laser defense system will likely prove useful because it is designed to handle multiple types of threats and quite a few concurrently.  10 guys getting together toss some unguided rockets/mortar rounds or send an explosive package via an octocopter will likely come up short.

For #2, well, the hope is that threshold to overcome the system is high enough that it gives intelligence and/or law enforcement time to thwart the attack before it happens.  Obviously there's a lot of people in Israel wondering if there's something else to do instead.

The obvious problem, which is the one the Pentagon doesn't seem to care about, is how many of these systems will be needed to protect military assets and the civilian infrastructure that they depend on.  Even protecting the most high profile, most at risk assets during peacetime is in the multiple hundreds, more probably low thousands.  Systems that cost $50m a piece aren't going to be able to do that.  Though Lockheed Martin would welcome the opportunity to try.

Steve

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I am highly skeptical about direct energy C-UAS, let alone C-RAM.  It may be technically feasible for static point defence systems one can plug into a power grid.  But for mobile defence I think the energy bill is just too high.  Further one would need thousands of these systems (which is what GD wants) to deal with the levels of systems we see in this war, let alone swarms likely in the next one.  These things will be 1) highly visible as that much energy being pumped into the environment is going to get detected…bit more juice than a pigeon heart, and 2) will be a prime target for all the systems that can see it.  We would likely lose them too fast to replace.

And then there is volume.  A direct energy weapon that can target and engage dozens or even hundreds of small tac UAS/loitering munitions at range would be a game changer for more than AD.  Such a weapon could target people and vehicles at ranges and rates that would change warfare forever if such a system existed.

No, this is typical western military industrial planning.  We have swarms of small UAS that costs a few hundred to a few thousand dollars each that we need to stop.  Of course we will develop and buy a laser- phased AD system that costs hundreds of millions and needs to be put on a big truck….makes perfect sense.

Or we take another UAS that costs a few hundred dollars and built it to kill other UAS.  

An anti drone drone must be harder to do than I think it is, or we would see them already. If one side fielded them en masse it would basically run the other one right off the battle field. This is so obviously true there must be a technical reason it hasn't happened yet. Why isn't there something that looks exactly like an Orlan 10 up there hunting Orlan 10s?

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by dan/california

[Jammason]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

An anti drone drone must be harder to do than I think it is, or we would see them already. If one side fielded them en masse it would basically run the other one right off the battle field. This is so obviously true there must be a technical reason it hasn't happened yet. Why isn't there something that looks exactly like an Orlan 10 up there hunting Orlan 10s?

 

Anduril makes anti-drone drones. They may already be in theater, but if they are, I'm guessing performance is being kept under wraps. See, e.g.: https://www.anduril.com/capability/counter-uas/ .

As someone who has used industrial lasers for fabrication, I'll repeat my skepticism about the effectiveness of lasers against drones -- too easy to harden against them, both with materials (ceramics) and cheap sensors & algorithms ("I'm getting warm, time to spin and fly chaotically to my target, while informing my mesh of the location of the threat")