How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kimbosbread]

26 minutes ago, poesel said:

I'm a bit surprised we don't see more of those (fixed wing). They are cheaper to make than quadcopters, can fly longer and carry more load.

I think it’s a combo of several things:

• Range is the big one for your transmitter. If you go autonomous, that’s no problem anymore. For the ranges currently possible for small drones, might as well just stay quad if it’s < 10km.
• VTOL (though hybrids exist), so no hands launch standing up, or slingshot. Can launch from enclosed space or trench.
• Less off the shelf small durable airframes for fixed wing. Hobbyist ones are styrofoam/wood and presumably get trashed fast too.

In terms of disposability, there is minimal extra cost for disposable electronics. Sure, better camera and gimball, but otherwise same chips and whatnot for small cheap stuff.

EDIT: From a philosophical standpoint, there’s a divergence here for our drones in the future.

• Do we have an autonomous drone bomber with dumb (or less smart) munitions, and all the operations (launch, reload, maintenance) that this requires?
• Do we have a ****load of autonomous micro and mini cruise missiles that are disposable? Drones don’t last that long anyway, so make your COGs low and mass produce, and rely on software updates to give you power.
• Do we do some sort of combo?

Edited October 12, 2023 by kimbosbread

[Haiduk]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The Girkin Twitter account has a number of posts pertaining to Avdiivka that I haven't seen yet.  This one shows yet more MT-LB modifications.  Ersatz APC?

Likely they were inspired by M113 :). But this is not Avdiivka. These vehicles belonged to 39th motor-rifle brigade of 68th Army corps from Sakhalin. Brigade operates on Novomykhailivka direction (between Maryinka and Vuhledar). Russians activated offensive action on whole Donbas sector, not only near Avdiivka. 

This is from there - Russians had some advance several days ago

[Haiduk]

18 hours ago, THH149 said:

Could you provide the source for this map? TIA

https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3

His maps pretty nice, though can have some inaccuracies in small details. But of course 100 % precise situation maps have only HQs. Maybe %) 

[Haiduk]

Russian armored advance from Pisky to Nevelske - Pervomaiske (not to Avdiivka, as claimed) was repelled

 

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Tux]

1 hour ago, Offshoot said:

The ISW touched on this a few weeks ago ( https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2023 )

 

Thanks for the reminder. I knew I’d seen something along those lines somewhere. 

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/CyTWwyVqbVp

Some interesting footage from the fixed wing drone bomber the Ukrainians have started using. Thee feed they are showing from the drone looks straight down, and records the actual impact. Either their is another camera for targeting or it is pure GPS.

I think this is "Punisher", maybe single UKR fixed-wing UAV, appointed for bomb dropping. There was many polemic about it effectiveness.

Experimental models of "Punisher" are known since 2016, but small serial production started only since 2022. This bomber uses 2 kg UB-75 bombs, having HE, HEAT or incendiary warhead. Despite many attempts of UA Dynamics company to promote own UAVs, including "aggressive marketing", effectiveness of their bombers was doubted by many UAV combat teams and developers, so R18 and similar still use with much more popularity as bombers, than "Punisher". 

But for example famous "Birds of Magyar" use these drones.

Edited October 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[akd]

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian armored advance from Pisky to Nevelske - Pervomaiske (not to Avdiivka, as claimed) was repelled

 

 

The mines that T-80BVM ran into were surface laid. What recon doing?

Edited October 12, 2023 by akd

[Haiduk]

Now we have a video of this

Unit of 39th motor-rifle brigade, using this hmmm.... armored doghouses, came under fire near Novomykhailivka (10-12 km south from Maryinka)

 

[Haiduk]

Interesting... On this video of Hamas attack on Israeli base at 0:14 Russian "davayte, davayte!" ("go, come on [you all]"! ) is heard. And a shout "Allakhu Akbar" before with accent very similar to Russian...

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Cool. Perhaps not the most functional, but cool. In serious categories, I hear from volunteers about constant shortage of terrain vehicles especially in TDF brigades.

 

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I hear from volunteers about constant shortage of terrain vehicles especially in TDF brigades.

Shortage is everywhere. Jeeps, pick-ups, mini-buses and even usual civil cars are just the same consumables, like civil Mavic drones. Without these vehicles all logistic of forward lines and close rear would be paralized and combat capabilities of many units in maneuver would be limited. Russian for these purpose uses multiple UAZ-452 "Bukhanka" and UAZ-469/ UAZ "Patriot", because their capabilities to buy western-market jeeps in so huge number as it do UKR volunteers is limited. 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR troops reportedly slightly advanced NE from Kopani on Zaporizhzhia front

[Haiduk]

Russian "victories" in TG and reality

- On southerm flank of Avdiivka RU assaulters captured UKR strongpoint Almaz-1 (known position since ATO times)

- Dick-az-1 they captured. One and half of battalions are "200" (dead)

Edited October 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR soldier stands in huge bomb crater. 

[kimbosbread]

39 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Shortage is everywhere. Jeeps, pick-ups, mini-buses and even usual civil cars are just the same consumables, like civil Mavic drones. Without these vehicles all logistic of forward lines and close rear would be paralized and combat capabilities of many units in maneuver would be limited. Russian for these purpose uses multiple UAZ-452 "Bukhanka" and UAZ-469/ UAZ "Patriot", because their capabilities to buy western-market jeeps in so huge number as it do UKR volunteers is limited. 

This would be a glorious opportunity for American pick up truck manufacturers, who with the end of ZIRP are sitting on lots of inventory they can’t move. They could get probably get uncle Sam to comp them a bit too. Not as good as a Hilux/LC70, but better than nothing. Also American-size means lots of room for body armor and cupholders for energy drinks.

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Cool. Perhaps not the most functional, but cool. In serious categories, I hear from volunteers about constant shortage of terrain vehicles especially in TDF brigades.

 

Toyota in shambles.

[Blazing 88's]

3 hours ago, poesel said:

From the drop time of about 6 seconds, I guess the release height was about 200 m. Combine that with the relative slow speed of the aircraft and you will get excellent results.

Since this is a non-kamikaze craft, you could put a bit more electronics in it than in a one-use drone. That means possibly more autonomy for that thing.

I'm a bit surprised we don't see more of those. They are cheaper to make than quadcopters, can fly longer and carry more load.

 

Swarms of these RC Stukas (Jericho siren too).  SWEET!!

As a casual RC Park Flyer (prior to new RC /Drone laws being passed here) I was grinning the whole time while watching this.

 

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Blazing 88's

[LongLeftFlank]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Two mags is nowhere near enough to get out of a pickle.  The standard was the ability to defend yourself for about 20 mins until guns and/or air got into the game.  20 mins of sustained fire, enough to keep their heads down and not advancing on you turned out to be around 8-10 mags per person.  So upwards of 300 rounds.  

Infantry going out on offence carried a lot more. 

Best line I ever heard : “Where is the front line in this damned war? Wherever one of us is standing.”

Outside the wire everyone is infantry…to a point.  If you are not, you are a liability.

Come on 'fess up, this guy is basically you, isn't he?

 

[stuxneet]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Cool. Perhaps not the most functional, but cool. In serious categories, I hear from volunteers about constant shortage of terrain vehicles especially in TDF brigades.

 

Footage from an airsoft game, unfortunately 

[Artkin]

8 minutes ago, stuxneet said:

Footage from an airsoft game, unfortunately 

Hahahaha Twitter... 

[Kinophile]

 

[Kinophile]

 

 

[akd]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Interesting... On this video of Hamas attack on Israeli base at 0:14 Russian "davayte, davayte!" ("go, come on [you all]"! ) is heard. And a shout "Allakhu Akbar" before with accent very similar to Russian...

Just to note, Oz is a reliable reporter and has extensive experience in ME and Ukraine.

 

[Beleg85]

32 minutes ago, stuxneet said:

Footage from an airsoft game, unfortunately 

Well God damnit. "Musk, give me back my legions!"

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

I think it’s a combo of several things:

• Range is the big one for your transmitter. If you go autonomous, that’s no problem anymore. For the ranges currently possible for small drones, might as well just stay quad if it’s < 10km.
• VTOL (though hybrids exist), so no hands launch standing up, or slingshot. Can launch from enclosed space or trench.
• Less off the shelf small durable airframes for fixed wing. Hobbyist ones are styrofoam/wood and presumably get trashed fast too.

In terms of disposability, there is minimal extra cost for disposable electronics. Sure, better camera and gimball, but otherwise same chips and whatnot for small cheap stuff.

EDIT: From a philosophical standpoint, there’s a divergence here for our drones in the future.

• Do we have an autonomous drone bomber with dumb (or less smart) munitions, and all the operations (launch, reload, maintenance) that this requires?
• Do we have a ****load of autonomous micro and mini cruise missiles that are disposable? Drones don’t last that long anyway, so make your COGs low and mass produce, and rely on software updates to give you power.
• Do we do some sort of combo?

Coincidentally, I just listened to Perun's take on aerial drones a few hours ago.  Well worth a listen, as always.  In fact, he was funnier than usual!

Steve