How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Tux]

2 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I would not be surprised if RF logistics are being throttled enough near Tokmak that Russia cannot support more than X number of vehicles and guns, but overall they have supplies to spare. In that scenario they can be starved near Tokmak but also have enough for a reasonable push in the east.

Fair point, in which case maybe infantry would be a more reliable indicator?

[cesmonkey]

https://www.fmn.dk/da/nyheder/2023/danmark-og-tjekkiet-gar-sammen-om-markant-donation-til-ukraine2/
Denmark and the Czech Republic join forces on a significant donation to Ukraine
In the coming months, Denmark and the Czech Republic will supply Ukraine's armed forces with infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, heavy weapons and other types of weapons from production lines and warehouses in the Czech Republic.

Quote

Denmark and the Czech Republic have agreed on a donation of modern weapons systems, which will support Ukraine's fight for freedom and democracy against Russia's aggression in both the short and long term.

As the first part of the donation to Ukraine, the two countries expect to deliver the following from the production lines and warehouses of Czech manufacturers:

• Approximately 50 infantry fighting vehicles and tanks
• 2,500 pistols
• 7,000 rifles
• 500 light machine guns
• 500 sniper rifles
• Equipment for Electronic Warfare and Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance
• And in addition artillery ammunition.
   

"This is a substantial donation of equipment for which there is great demand in Ukraine, and which has been made possible on the basis of exemplary cooperation between Denmark and the Czech Republic," says Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen.

The Czech Deputy Defense Minister Daniel Blažkovec points out that this kind of cooperation means that the military support for Ukraine can continue not only in the coming months, but also in 2024 and in the long run, if necessary.

The donation includes both modern Czech weapons systems and refurbished equipment that Ukrainian troops are already used to using on the battlefield. The list of donations is aligned with the wishes and needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and will contribute substantially to their combat power.

Denmark and the Czech Republic expect to donate additional equipment, including:

• 500 heavy machine guns
• 280 nozzle guns
• 7,000 anti-tank weapons
• 10,000 hand grenades
• And 60 mortar systems.
   

In addition, a significant number of anti-drone systems will be donated.

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

think there's a third one:

* Internal/domestic politics demands that Russia are seen to be making progress - the Army has therefore been instructed to attack and take a named settlement for Russian media to draw big red arrows around and then stick a flag in.

Whatever else the Russian MOD is thinking, my money is on this for the primary motivation.

 

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

I'm quite sure I saw that video of the Lancet strike on the Mig a coupe of weeks (or longer) ago. IIRC at the time there was the question whether it was a dummy plane or not.

It is very unfortunate that the Lancets keep getting better, it is also very noteworthy that Ukraine has apparently been able to use an airfield a ~120 kilometers from the front for the last eighteen months. The level of failure that implies for the Russian military is just staggering.

[Bearstronaut]

18 hours ago, Haiduk said:

So, "veterans" laughed at this and told, this is usual practice for all brigades in much or less degrees, just conditions of war forced us to act by a rule of US Marines, where each marine in first order is rifleman, anf only then has own speciality.

Having been a combat support soldier I never understood why the US Army didn't do what the USMC does and send every soldier through infantry school after basic training. I can only guess that due to the size of the army it would be cost prohibitive. My job in a maneuver brigade was basically on the FLOT but my dudes and I had few of the same skills as the infantry or cav troopers of the unit we were attached too. I mean sure, we could fire our own rifles well enough and maybe man a M249 in a pinch but that was about it. This led to resentment as the maneuver guys felt like they had to "babysit" us, which they kind of did. 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Bearstronaut

[dan/california]

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/CyTWwyVqbVp

Some interesting footage from the fixed wing drone bomber the Ukrainians have started using. Thee feed they are showing from the drone looks straight down, and records the actual impact. Either their is another camera for targeting or it is pure GPS.

[dan/california]

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Well, it’s 2023, and Russia is attacking with tank-riding infantry:

 

First vid... the unit's not bad.  Only 1/2 the guys ran away to leave wounded comrades behind.

Second vid... lookie what I see there!  A second disabled/destroyed TOS-1 in as many days.  Nice to see.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

Having been a combat support soldier I never understood why the US Army didn't do what the USMC does and send every soldier through infantry school after basic training. I can only guess that due to the size of the army it would be cost prohibitive. My job in a maneuver brigade was basically on the FLOT but my dudes and I had few of the same skills as the infantry or cav troopers of the unit we were attached too. I mean sure, we could fire our own rifles well enough and maybe man a M249 in a pinch but that was about it. This led to resentment as the maneuver guys felt like they had to "babysit" us, which they kind of did. 

I think it has more to do with the Army being so huge that it believes basic units will always keep the specialists out of the fight and still have enough combat infantry in the trenches to sustain operations.  Marines, on the other hand, traditionally are like airborne infantry in that they get pushed into situations where the specialists are probably going to be engaged in combat.  That and impromptu reorgs are likely necessary before operational factors would otherwise allow for.

Funny related note, a friend of mine was in Navy logistics and deployed to both Bahrain and Afghanistan.  They issued them with just two spare mags.  In his first deployment one of the sailors asked why they didn't get more and their Chief said "because we don't want you to start thinking you're infantry".  The point being they had enough ammo to get themselves out of a pickle, not enough to get themselves into one.

There's something to be said for recognizing limitations

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/CyTWwyVqbVp

Some interesting footage from the fixed wing drone bomber the Ukrainians have started using. Thee feed they are showing from the drone looks straight down, and records the actual impact. Either their is another camera for targeting or it is pure GPS.

We've either recently seen this video or something similar.  Either way, watching this gave me the same "huh... that's interesting" feeling as whatever I'm thinking of.  And that is the accuracy of those unguided bomb drops.  Yes, yes, yes, I know we're only seeing the hits and not misses, but I'd have thought there wouldn't be much of any hits to show off.  There's enough in this one video to raise an eyebrow.  I'm not sure how they are achieving near PGM accuracy with dumb bomb drops (I assume they are as they appear small and why drop a pair of PGMs?).

Steve

[hcrof]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

We've either recently seen this video or something similar.  Either way, watching this gave me the same "huh... that's interesting" feeling as whatever I'm thinking of.  And that is the accuracy of those unguided bomb drops.  Yes, yes, yes, I know we're only seeing the hits and not misses, but I'd have thought there wouldn't be much of any hits to show off.  There's enough in this one video to raise an eyebrow.  I'm not sure how they are achieving near PGM accuracy with dumb bomb drops (I assume they are as they appear small and why drop a pair of PGMs?).

Steve

Fast jets have guidance aids to tell the pilot exactly when and where to drop to hit a target, which is corrected for air speed, direction etc. Similarly those fancy new rifle sights will pull the trigger when you are on your target and compensate for bullet drop, wind etc. 

I imagine it is not too hard to fix something similar to a slow moving drone so it autopilots the attack run for optimal accuracy. I am not saying the Ukrainians are actually using it, but it is possible.

[Splinty]

44 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

Having been a combat support soldier I never understood why the US Army didn't do what the USMC does and send every soldier through infantry school after basic training. I can only guess that due to the size of the army it would be cost prohibitive. My job in a maneuver brigade was basically on the FLOT but my dudes and I had few of the same skills as the infantry or cav troopers of the unit we were attached too. I mean sure, we could fire our own rifles well enough and maybe man a M249 in a pinch but that was about it. This led to resentment as the maneuver guys felt like they had to "babysit" us, which they kind of did. 

TBH Infantry basic is almost exactly the same as basic for support units. I've been through both, and most of the differences are in the amount of "aggression" instilled in the trainees by the drill sergeants. The advanced infantry training is where the differences start to really show. I went to Air Defence advanced training, my first enlistment, and almost all of that training was in classrooms. Whereas Infantry Advanced training was all in the field.  

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, TheVulture said:

With the Russian attacks on Avdiivka, I can imagine two main scenarios:

* Russia feels comfortable with their defensive situation around Tokmak so they can afford the forces for the attack

* Russia's position around Tokmak is precarious and this is an attempt to relieve pressure by either faking the idea they have sufficient reserves,  or  Hitler-esque belief in the decisive nature of offensive action to solve problems.

What are the key bits of evidence to look for in the coming days that might indicate one way or the other?

I touched on this in a previous post, but there's evidence this is #2 or the #3 Tux suggested.

The primary evidence?  The units involved.  These are DPR units, which don't have much history of being redeployed to other sectors.  Russia tried moving small scale DPR units out of their home turf to shore up Kharkiv and Kherson, neither worked out so well.  Russia's attempts to turn them into standard Russian Army units has also been declared a failure by Russian mil bloggers.  Simply put, they are territorial defense units for Donetsk and that's that.

This is important to understand because it means the bulk of the forces committed to Avdiivka are *not* available for the south even if Tokmak defenses are about to collapse.  Therefore, their use in Avdiivka does not indicate anything about the Tokmak area defenses.

Couple this with probable constraints on logistics for redeployment and sustainment of artillery (especially in the south) and I can see Russia stripping artillery assets from Luhansk and putting them around Avdiivka.  In fact, weren't the TOS-1 last spotted in the Lyman area? 

My take on this summarized:

1.  Russia decided it was time for another one of their "distraction attacks".  We've seen plenty of these since the war started.  It takes the form of local units in a quiet sector being told to attack so as to distract Ukraine from focusing on a hot sector.  Russia uses these whether they are on the offense or defense.  It doesn't matter how stupid the attack is, the point is to make an impression that gets Ukraine to draw forces away from someplace Russian command deems more important.

2.  When looking for such an opportunity there isn't much for Russia to choose from.  Their units in Luhansk are spent, Bakhmut is already as hot as it can get, the south is fully committed, and there aren't enough forces to mount a meaningful distraction attack anywhere else but Avdiivka.  DPR units appear to have reconstituted enough to be useful again, but they can't be redeployed (see above commentary), therefore the distraction attack must be in the DPR area of operations.

3.  The Avdiivka sector hasn't gone hot in a while, it is a reasonably small target, and is surrounded on 3 sides.  A pretty good target for a distraction attack because it does hold out some opportunities for success that would matter.  Plus, Avdiivka is a well known area so even if they don't succeed people will be paying attention to it.

4.  Artillery was probably already decent in this sector, just under resourced in terms of available munitions.  Bringing in more shells is relatively easy, especially in this sector as it is serviced by some of the best logistics centers in Ukraine.

5.  Additional artillery could have been stripped from the failed offensives in Luhansk because they don't need them.  Why not put them in the south?  Possibly because at this point they think they'd do more good in a distraction attack than as reinforcements.  It is also easier to move them from Luhansk to Donetsk than to get them to the Tokmak area.  It's also easier to sustain them out of Donetsk City than out of a place that is being repeatedly hammered by Ukraine's deep strike capabilities.

To sum up... Russia attacked in Avdiivka because it wanted a distraction attack and that was the only place it could mount one.

That's my take on it at least

Steve

[zinz]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We've either recently seen this video or something similar.  Either way, watching this gave me the same "huh... that's interesting" feeling as whatever I'm thinking of.  And that is the accuracy of those unguided bomb drops.  Yes, yes, yes, I know we're only seeing the hits and not misses, but I'd have thought there wouldn't be much of any hits to show off.  There's enough in this one video to raise an eyebrow.  I'm not sure how they are achieving near PGM accuracy with dumb bomb drops (I assume they are as they appear small and why drop a pair of PGMs?).

Steve

The point I was thinking of an interesting development would be dive bombing of fix winged drones. That tactic was already quite precise in WW2. With image recognition the dropping part could be largely automated. That should increase range or payload a lot and reduce the cost significantly when the delivery vehicle comes back for reuse. I am surprised I haven't seen any videos with that tactic yet. 

[dan/california]

Almost exactly the same rake as Steve, but with a pretty good map.

[akd]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

Second vid... lookie what I see there!  A second disabled/destroyed TOS-1 in as many days.  Nice to see.

Steve

That’s actually a tank wearing some form of Cope Cap, but more importantly: now we need tank-riding in CMBS also. 

Edited October 12, 2023 by akd

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Funny related note, a friend of mine was in Navy logistics and deployed to both Bahrain and Afghanistan.  They issued them with just two spare mags.  In his first deployment one of the sailors asked why they didn't get more and their Chief said "because we don't want you to start thinking you're infantry".  The point being they had enough ammo to get themselves out of a pickle, not enough to get themselves into one.

Two mags in nowhere near enough to get out of a pickle.  The standard was the ability to defend yourself for about 20 mins until guns and/or air got into the game.  20 mins of sustained fire, enough to keep their heads down and not advancing on you turned out to be around 8-10 mags per person.  So upwards of 300 rounds.  

Infantry going out on offence carried a lot more. 

Best line I ever heard : “Where is the front line in this damned war? Wherever one of us is standing.”

Outside the wire everyone is infantry…to a point.  If you are not, you are a liability.

Edited October 12, 2023 by The_Capt

[Lethaface]

 

Interesting sounding tech/software, which if I understand correctly could be installed on existing crows and link them together forming a distributed network for defense against drones.

[Kinophile]

Avdiivka. 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Kinophile

[Bearstronaut]

56 minutes ago, Splinty said:

TBH Infantry basic is almost exactly the same as basic for support units. I've been through both, and most of the differences are in the amount of "aggression" instilled in the trainees by the drill sergeants. The advanced infantry training is where the differences start to really show. I went to Air Defence advanced training, my first enlistment, and almost all of that training was in classrooms. Whereas Infantry Advanced training was all in the field.  

That's what I mean. Send everyone through advanced infantry training like the Marines send everyone to SOI after basic. I went to language school, AIT, and then straight to an intel brigade in Korea. I was a NCO by the time I got assigned to a BCT and I could count the number of days I had spent "in the field" after basic on my fingers. Then it was "ok SGT Bearstronaut, you're tactical now so do tactical stuff." 

[dan/california]

40 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

 

Interesting sounding tech/software, which if I understand correctly could be installed on existing crows and link them together forming a distributed network for defense against drones.

Would it be able to engage Lancets as well?

[TheVulture]

So the US, UK, Germany and Norway have all announced this week military aid with substantial air defence and anti-drone components.  Guess we know what was top priority on Ukraine's wish list at the moment.

Edited October 12, 2023 by TheVulture

[Lethaface]

42 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Would it be able to engage Lancets as well?

I don't see why Lancets would be such a different type of target that the capability wouldn't be effective against those.

[Offshoot]

4 hours ago, Tux said:

I think there's a third one:

* Internal/domestic politics demands that Russia are seen to be making progress - the Army has therefore been instructed to attack and take a named settlement for Russian media to draw big red arrows around and then stick a flag in.

The ISW touched on this a few weeks ago ( https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2023 )

Quote

The Russian resistance to ceding ground may also be tied to Russian military commanders’ and officials’ attempts to use the counteroffensive to achieve political goals, or it could result from Putin’s micromanagement. A Kremlin insider source claimed that Putin reportedly gave Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu a deadline of one month until early October 2023 to improve the situation on the frontlines, stop Ukrainian counteroffensives, and have Russian forces regain the initiative to launch an offensive operation against a larger city.

 

 

[Lethaface]

32 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

So the US, UK, Germany and Norway have all announced this week military aid with substantial air defence and anti-drone components.  Guess we know what was to priority on Ukraine's wish list at the moment.

With all that's been written about the subject in this thread I guess achieving 'drone superiority' in this war would be a significant factor. 

[poesel]

2 hours ago, hcrof said:

Fast jets have guidance aids to tell the pilot exactly when and where to drop to hit a target, which is corrected for air speed, direction etc. Similarly those fancy new rifle sights will pull the trigger when you are on your target and compensate for bullet drop, wind etc. 

I imagine it is not too hard to fix something similar to a slow moving drone so it autopilots the attack run for optimal accuracy. I am not saying the Ukrainians are actually using it, but it is possible.

From the drop time of about 6 seconds, I guess the release height was about 200 m. Combine that with the relative slow speed of the aircraft and you will get excellent results.

Since this is a non-kamikaze craft, you could put a bit more electronics in it than in a one-use drone. That means possibly more autonomy for that thing.

I'm a bit surprised we don't see more of those. They are cheaper to make than quadcopters, can fly longer and carry more load.