How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Fenris]

Taking your licks, glorious red army style.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1704166094427107663

 

[Fenris]

No comment

Quote

For this Russian occupier from the 76th VDV Division's special purpose company, Ivan Akhtyrsky, who died in Ukraine in January, his fellow servicemen created this personal "Hero's corner", for some reason, with a weird bed and even a pillow, protected by some gorgeous red and gold fence It is said that this corner is located at the division's base/hqs.

 

[Fenris]

Sorry.

 

[GAZ NZ]

POLAND WILL NO LONGER ARM UKRAINE, after Ukraine complains to WTO over grain ban in Poland

In a series of recent developments, tensions have flared between Ukraine and several European Union member states, leading to significant economic and political repercussions.

On September 15th, the European Commission announced the termination of the import ban on grain from Ukraine. This decision marked the culmination of a previous agreement made in May by the European Union to impose restrictions on the import of Ukrainian grain, confining it to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. The primary objective of these measures was to protect local farmers in these nations who attributed declining prices on their domestic markets to the inundation of Ukrainian grain. While the restrictions allowed Ukraine to transit its products through these five countries, they effectively prohibited their sale on local markets.

The European Commission justified its decision to end the import ban by citing the disappearance of market distortions in the five member states bordering Ukraine. Nevertheless, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia immediately contested the move, sparking controversy, especially in Poland, where elections were impending.

Subsequently, on September 19th, Ukraine filed a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. This complaint was lodged in response to these countries imposing bans on the import of grain and other food products from Ukraine. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal made the announcement, highlighting the ongoing discord within the agricultural sector and further deepening the rift between Ukraine—a major global food supplier—and three European Union member states. The EU has been a crucial supporter of Ukraine as it grapples with Russia’s invasion.

In a divergence from the broader EU stance, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Croatia (the latter joining later) implemented bans on Ukrainian food imports into their local markets. However, they decided to continue permitting these products to transit through their borders to regions where there was a demand for food. These decisions were prompted by the EU’s recent decision to lift restrictions on Ukrainian exports to five member states, including Romania and Bulgaria. Notably, Bulgaria’s government chose to reinstate Ukrainian imports, citing the surge in food costs, which had triggered farmer protests.

Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic echoed the concerns of the other nations, expressing fears that importing cheaper Ukrainian grain could adversely affect local farmers. Nevertheless, Croatia extended an olive branch by offering its Adriatic Sea ports to facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain to other countries. In response, Ukraine’s Prime Minister criticized these actions as “unfriendly” and launched an investigation into potential discriminatory practices.

Finally, on September 21st, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki unveiled a policy shift concerning arms supplies to Ukraine. He declared that Poland would focus on strengthening its own defense capabilities and cease arming Ukraine. This decision followed the summoning of Kyiv’s ambassador by Warsaw amid the ongoing dispute over grain exports.

Poland, a major supplier of weapons to Ukraine and a steadfast supporter since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, has also provided assistance to approximately one million Ukrainian refugees. The decision to halt arms transfers to Ukraine underscores Poland’s changing priorities, emphasizing the modernization of its own defense capabilities. These interconnected developments exemplify the intricate web of economic, political, and security interests at play in the region.

 

[Letter from Prague]

I guess some of us hoped that the war will help Poland to wake up and become something else than Hungary-aligned force always doing the wrong thing and always trying their best to destroy EU from within. To shake off PiS and become something more. It is obvious now it was too good to be true.

When crisis comes, people don't change for the better, they become more of what the were before.

[Haiduk]

Loud morning was in Kyiv today. About 20 missiles were shot down over the city, suburbs and in Kyiv oblast. Fragments of one shot down missiles damaged some infrastructure object and set on fire car service. I have seen a smoke, but not heard specific sound of impact, maybe really parts of missiles have fell down. Reportedly seven citizens were wounded.

Total 10 Tu-95 have launched 43 Kh-101/555 missiles in two waves, 37 of which were intercepted. 

There were hits in Cherkasy (a hotel), Drohobych, Khmelnyntskyi, Rivne. Also six S-300 missiles hit Kharkiv

[cesmonkey]

Report on what the Ukrainians hit in Crimea
https://t.me/operativnoZSU/115534
 

Quote

Tonight, the Security Service of Ukraine and the Navy launched a large-scale fire strike at the Saki military airfield in occupied Crimea.

According to our sources in the Security Service, there were at least 12 combat aircraft (Su-24 and Su-30) and Pantsir MANPADS at the airfield. The Mojaher UAV operator training base was also located there. It is these drones that the Russians use to coordinate their own air strikes, as well as as a combat strike drone.

Strikes by the Security Service and the Naval Forces hit the target and caused serious damage to the occupiers' equipment. Drones were used to defeat the enemy, which overloaded the Russian air defense system, and then they launched Neptune missiles.

It is interesting that even Russian telegram channels confirm serious destruction and losses - they write about at least 30 dead soldiers.

The SBU assures that every day the "cotton" in Crimea will bloom more and more - the occupiers cannot feel safe on the occupied peninsula.

 

[Huba]

33 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I guess some of us hoped that the war will help Poland to wake up and become something else than Hungary-aligned force always doing the wrong thing and always trying their best to destroy EU from within. To shake off PiS and become something more. It is obvious now it was too good to be true.

When crisis comes, people don't change for the better, they become more of what the were before.

PiS is aiming at stealing some votes from the far(er) right before the October elections, and there isn't a single thing in the world not worth sacrificing on this altar. Shameful, to say the least.

[Letter from Prague]

24 minutes ago, Huba said:

PiS is aiming at stealing some votes from the far(er) right before the October elections, and there isn't a single thing in the world not worth sacrificing on this altar. Shameful, to say the least.

Yeah, I have not seen any election predictions but I really hope you all succeed at getting rid of these guys, whether soon or in years.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

5 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Poland to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine over grain row

Weapons from other nations can still transit through Poland.

Morawiecki's words were misreported, as he did not declare a policy shift, but stated as a matter of fact that Poland at the moment is not supplying arms to Ukraine, because it needs to rearm itself. This is generally true because most of assets that Poland could spare have been donated already and the new deliveries have yet to be realised. The press being the press reported this in a way which both creates controversy and satsifies the biases of the writers and the readers.

Still what Morawiecki refers to is important to understand the present crisis in Polish-Ukrainian relations. Poland was determined to help from the beginning and had a significant stock of post-soviet stuff which blended relatively well with Ukrainian assets. This caused Polish aid to be hugely important in the first period of the war. By now, we have largely shot our bolt and do not have so much to give anymore. Western European aid is on the rise, and countries like e.g. Germany can help Ukraine in EU accession negotiations which Poland cannot. Therefore, our value as an ally has decreased, apparently to the extent that Zelenski decided to prioritise the profit marigins on the sale of grain over UKR-POL relations. As long as we do not close the border or the Jasionka airport - which is not going to happen - Ukrainians will continue to benefit from most of Poland's value as an ally in this war.  Also, he may be counting on currying favour with the EU commission and Western European governements by creating a difficult situation for the PiS govt shortly before the elections.

Conversely, most of Ukraine's value as an ally to Poland is realised via Ukraine defending itself and killing Russians. At this stage it seems they are capable of doing it without Polish aid deliveries, with Poland acting just as an airhead and land bridge to UKR, so I expect this will be the equilibrium on which the matters will settle: we will keep providing the passive support plus training, repair services and deliver under the existing contracts. Cheering for Ukraine's wins and enthusiasm for post-war close cooperation will decrease, money and asset collection among the general populace will fall away, etc. - but these have always been optional and had no impact on the general direction of the war.

BTW this is exactly the course of events which was predicted by many Polish political analysts of the "realist" persuasion.

 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

PiS is aiming at stealing some votes from the far(er) right before the October elections, and there isn't a single thing in the world not worth sacrificing on this altar. Shameful, to say the least.

Partly it is obviously the case. However, there is so many interconnected interests and odd theatricity (on both UA and PL sides) connected to this issue that it starts to stinks from a far, like "who blown NS2" case. Given previously extremely cordial relations between presidents, and very uncharacteristic calmness of Duda in this situation, there is even theory now that it is agreed between both governments to do a little public tantrum as a favour due to elections...sounds crazy, but we already saw many similar odd, unresolved cases during those 2 years (like NS2 case). A lot of things is going here under the carpet we know little about.

Also, don't take Morawiecki by his words, basically never. First, it was cut out of context and they were hardly such dramatical if somebdoy know polish and way of talking of our current PM (like unfortunatelly often happens in many western media outlets lately...). Second, he lies, as always - don't worry, I am pretty sure PL will continue its military support on multiple levels (if some stuff is still left in warehouses). Here @Huba is unfortunatelly right- expecting state in election fever to behave normally is like asking woman just about to give birth to stop showing off herself.

 

Also addendum to Kadyrov saga- alive and well, here praying on the bad of his uncle, Magomet. Maybe it was not this Kadyrov that SBU informed about?

Edited September 21, 2023 by Beleg85

[Astrophel]

13 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Interesting video with Russian mobiks of 1442nd motor-rifle regimenmt of territorial troops. They have been fighting near Klishchiivka already long time. The video has ENG subs, but in short:

- they are remains of infantry, drivers, mortar crews, servicemen of logistic units, cooks of 1st battalion. Their regimement lost alsmost all "line infantry" in "meat attacks" and command now gethered them and ordered to give 10 men for assault group to attack Klishchiivka again, but these guys say they don't want go to assault, because this is 100 % death. No artillery support, no ammunition for mortars. 

 

Interesting video indeed.  I can't imagine a bunch of westerners standing around so pathetically and empty handed making a collective appeal for somebody, anybody, to listen to their plight and do something.  This reveals the fundamental difference between western society and the way of the collective.  If these guys were Americans they would have kept their guns and be headed home and woe betide anybody who gets in their way.

A year ago these kind of appeals were being made to top management in Moscow.  Now they are being made to anybody with power.  Hopefully a revolution is just around the corner if somebody in russia dares to give leadership to these pathetic souls.  They are ready to follow anybody with half an idea of what to do next.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Astrophel

[Maciej Zwolinski]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Given previously extremely cordial relations between presidents, and very uncharacteristic calmness of Duda in this situation, there is even theory now that it is agreed between both governments to do a little public tantrum as a favour due to elections...sounds crazy, but we already saw many similar odd, unresolved cases during those 2 years (like NS2 case). A lot of things is going here under the carpet we know little about.

One such scenario immediately comes to mind, i.e. if PIS, extremely pro-Ukrainian in its policy, previously considered by the EU and Western European governements as "russophobic" contemplates making a post-election coalition with Konfederacja, a party having a significant "contrarian" isolationist, in places even pro-russian streak, it would have to explain to its voters the reasons for the change. An Ukrainian "betrayal" would be the perfect excuse.

On the other hand, Zelensky has no incentives to go along with such a deal, so it is not a likely scenario after all.

But that is going too deep into Polish politics and off topic.

[Lethaface]

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Partly it is obviously the case. However, there is so many interconnected interests and odd theatricity (on both UA and PL sides) connected to this issue that it starts to stinks from a far, like "who blown NS2" case. Given previously extremely cordial relations between presidents, and very uncharacteristic calmness of Duda in this situation, there is even theory now that it is agreed between both governments to do a little public tantrum as a favour due to elections...sounds crazy, but we already saw many similar odd, unresolved cases during those 2 years (like NS2 case). A lot of things is going here under the carpet we know little about.

Also, don't take Morawiecki by his words, basically never. He lies, as always -don't worry, I am pretty sure PL will continue its military support on multiple levels (if some stuff is still left in warehouses). Here @Huba is unfortunatelly right- expecting state in election fever to behave normally is like asking woman just about to give birth to stop showing off herself.

 

Well, geopolitics is (or should) not a playground for elections. The declaration that Poland will stop military support for Ukraine is, to put it mildly, a 'stab in the back' for Ukraine but also the other partners with which Poland was 'cooperating' like the EU, USA, etc.  
Furthermore it disqualifies all what has been said by Polish officials on the subject of Scholz, etc.

There were quite some articles about the rise of influence of Poland in the EU and larger. Actions like this put dynamite under such developments which is imo a shame because all of Europe is better off with a stable / stronger  Poland.

[TheVulture]

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Partly it is obviously the case. However, there is so many interconnected interests and odd theatricity (on both UA and PL sides) connected to this issue that it starts to stinks from a far, like "who blown NS2" case. Given previously extremely cordial relations between presidents, and very uncharacteristic calmness of Duda in this situation, there is even theory now that it is agreed between both governments to do a little public tantrum as a favour due to elections...sounds crazy, but we already saw many similar odd, unresolved cases during those 2 years (like NS2 case). A lot of things is going here under the carpet we know little about.

As I understand it, existing stuff promised by Poland will still be delivered, in which case this is effectively "we won't announce any new aid".  Which might be a giant nothing burger - in theory Poland can potentially still work out new aid packages, and deliver them on the same schedule, but just delay announcing them until e.g. after next months election.

So best case scenario is this is purely political theatre for internal audiences that has zero impact on anything tangible. 

Less optimistic scenarios are also possibilities of course. 

[Beleg85]

29 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Well, geopolitics is (or should) not a playground for elections.

There is probably hardly a country that it is so clear cut. But yeah, Morawiecki should frame it better; it cost us good opinion county earned before (mostly due to people's genuine reactions rather than original state apparatus behaviour anyway). About chancellor Scholz I dare to politelly disagree.

25 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

As I understand it, existing stuff promised by Poland will still be delivered, in which case this is effectively "we won't announce any new aid".  Which might be a giant nothing burger - in theory Poland can potentially still work out new aid packages, and deliver them on the same schedule, but just delay announcing them until e.g. after next months election.

So best case scenario is this is purely political theatre for internal audiences that has zero impact on anything tangible.

Yes, he even explained it clearly in his 30-min long interview today, which ofc is missed by most western media cause it is less dramatic. Nobody stops anything, including grain transits, and it is stated many times PL is working out to not endanger security of UA in any way. Actually, I am surprised how calming officials are compared to "news shock". There a lot of theatre guys playing here, I'll tell you that; only for people unaccustomed to PiS "double-talk" it sounds as something shocking.

 

PS. And just latest news...ministers of agriculture of UA and PL spoke and preliminary agreed to regulate the issue of grain markets... Told'ye.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Beleg85

[Lethaface]

8 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There is probably hardly a country that it is so clear cut. But yeah, Morawiecki should frame it better; it cost us good opinion county earned before (mostly due to people's genuine reactions rather than original state apparatus behaviour anyway). About chancellor Scholz I dare to politelly disagree.

Well let's hope there won't be snowball effects but it won't help in other countries where political support for the (significant) military aid to Ukraine and the impact of sanctions is opposed by significant part of the electorate. 

And I am nor ever was a big fan of Scholz, probably I have similar feelings about him as many others here but I felt some words about him or rather Germany were uncalled for / unproductive. In the light of this new development one could at least say that all those words from the Polish government was hollow rhetoric for political gain or to be considered hypocrisy. 

Edit: I hope 'you' manage to get rid of PiS in the election.

 

Edited September 21, 2023 by Lethaface

[Maciej Zwolinski]

13 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

As I understand it, existing stuff promised by Poland will still be delivered, in which case this is effectively "we won't announce any new aid".  Which might be a giant nothing burger -

It is. We do not have much to give at the moment.

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

But yeah, Morawiecki should frame it better; it cost us good opinion county earned before (mostly due to people's genuine reactions rather than original state apparatus behaviour anyway).

That precisely is the issue here. As you mentioned, if you listen to the whole interview it is much more nuanced, but for some reason the PM Chancellery decided to quote this one particular sentence in their tweet that, without context, caused the snowball effect we see now. And then, for the same reason they aren't doing any visible damage control on that.

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Loud morning was in Kyiv today. About 20 missiles were shot down over the city, suburbs and in Kyiv oblast. Fragments of one shot down missiles damaged some infrastructure object and set on fire car service. I have seen a smoke, but not heard specific sound of impact, maybe really parts of missiles have fell down. Reportedly seven citizens were wounded.

Total 10 Tu-95 have launched 43 Kh-101/555 missiles in two waves, 37 of which were intercepted. 

There were hits in Cherkasy (a hotel), Drohobych, Khmelnyntskyi, Rivne. Also six S-300 missiles hit Kharkiv

Damn muscovites. Haiduk how you judge chances that this autumn/winter we will see similar Russian strike campaign as previous year  targeting power grids?

[Armorgunner]

5 hours ago, Fenris said:

Sorry.

 

She did get their most modern available weapon tho! Which means that someone else, got some older things to work with  

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Damn muscovites. Haiduk how you judge chances that this autumn/winter we will see similar Russian strike campaign as previous year  targeting power grids?

Looks like today these strikes already began. Reportedly several substations were damaged, so were temporary power cutt off in Rivne, Vinnytsia oblast and Kyiv oblast. On eve GUR reported Russia conducted recon on UKR power resources, their conditions, repairs, defense etc.

All depends how much missiles Russians had time to produce and store. During about week this is third missile strike (but today there are no Shakheds) and most numerous - 43 missiles against about two dozens in previous two. But previous strikes weren't directed against power infrastructure. The missile, which caused fire in Kyiv was shot down not far from district thermal power plant.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Result of Storm Shadow strikes on 744th Comm Center of Black Sea Fleet Command on 19th of September

Photo of 22nd of August

Photo of 21nd of September

[Artkin]

5 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Report on what the Ukrainians hit in Crimea
https://t.me/operativnoZSU/115534
 

 

Pansir Man Portable Air Defense

[cesmonkey]

28 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Pansir Man Portable Air Defense

Perhaps a bad Google translation?