How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

 

[NamEndedAllen]

12 hours ago, kevinkin said:

A humanist beacon speaks:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/win-long-war-strategy-counteroffensive

Note: there is no mention of the human toll. However I think is a good status report from their view of the situation e.g. 

 It is difficult to objectively measure Ukraine’s progress because only a few of the most senior Ukrainian military and civilian leaders know the actual strategic and operational objectives for the country’s offensives. But for outsiders viewing the war, the country’s progress might be measured in ground taken, Russian forces destroyed, progress toward placing Russian forces in Crimea at peril, and the extent to which Ukraine has persuaded Western governments it is succeeding. After two months, it might be stated that each of these goals is “in progress.”

Imagine if the US admin were different if the passage below would ever see the light of day in this humanist beacon of hope:

Offering Kyiv enduring support may not be welcome news to many Western politicians, given the upcoming elections in the United States and some European countries. But over the past 18 months, the Ukrainians have demonstrated a will to fight, the capacity to absorb new weapons, and the ability to learn, adapt, and improve their military effectiveness. The next way to help the Ukrainians continue their evolution in quality and endurance is making sure they know the West is prepared to support them in their fight to defeat Russia and to offer this support in 2024 and beyond.

Ukraine’s strategic center of gravity is the White House. 
And I hate to say it, but am becoming afraid of Americans. 

 

[Haiduk]

Russia builds "FLAK towers" around Moscow, deploying Pantsyrs S1 on its %)

 

[FancyCat]

 

Quote

1/ News: Ukrainian President Zelensky says he asked his parliament to replace Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov with Rustem Umerov. “I believe that the Ministry needs new approaches and other formats of interaction both with the military and with society as a whole,” he said.

2/ Umerov will likely be approved by Ukraine’s parliament in coming days. He’s a seasoned negotiator & has developed rapport with western partners as ex MP & as current head of the State Property Fund. He’s also a Crimean Tatar, which will likely help keep the peninsula in focus.

 

 

Quote

The president considers appointing Rustem Umerov, current head of the State property fund, as the new Minister of Defence. That would be a good move, Umerov's team achieved a lot in the Fund e.g. re effective auditing of state enterprises & closing corruption loopholes. Ukraine received 3,8 bln UAH from selling some of the state assets, & increased the income from leasing of the state property by 3,3 times etc. He has experience in negotiations with int'l partners & on prisoners exchange. Moreover, he's a Crimean Tatar & his appointment would also send an important message about the impossibility of ceding Ukrainian lands. He would definitely bring a fresh breath to the MoD after recent corruption scandals

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

One more Bayraktar strike - I suppose it could be not "Ural truck", but some more valuable, like EW or communication vehicle.

Interesting, some Russian TGs claimed three days ago UKR troops landed on Kinburn spit, no info was from our sourses, but maybe today's videios with Bayraktar strikes can be tied with this

 

[FancyCat]

article from BBC Russia on how Russian diplomacy is degraded and second fiddle to Putin. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66509180

notable quote: 

Quote

Mr Bondarev recalls a dinner in Geneva in January 2022 when Mr Ryabkov, from the foreign ministry, met US officials. US First Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman hoped to avert the invasion of Ukraine through 11th-hour negotiations.

"It was awful," says Mr Bondarev. "The Americans were like, 'Let's negotiate.' And instead Ryabkov starts shouting, 'We need Ukraine! We won't go anywhere without Ukraine! Take all your stuff and go back to the 1997 [Nato] borders!' Sherman is an iron lady, but I think even her jaw dropped at this.

"[Ryabkov] was always very polite and really nice to talk to. And now he's banging his fist on the table and talking nonsense."

 

[sburke]

Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's (yahoo.com)

Since Vladimir Putin launched the invasion in February 2022, emigration out of Russia has exploded, with some estimates putting the exodus at 1 million people. A recent analysis from the policy platform Re: Russia narrowed the number to 817,000-922,000.

That's contributed to a record labor shortage, with 42% of industrial firms unable to find enough workers in July, up from 35% in April.

The composition of Russia's exodus also points to the best and brightest fleeing the country. While a barrage of Western sanctions incentivized many to leave for economic reasons, others fled to avoid military service, skewing the numbers toward younger Russians.

Workers under the age of 35 now account for less than 30% of the labor force, the lowest on record going back 20 years.

And according to a report from the French Institute of International Relations, 86% of those who have left Russia are under the age of 45, and 80% have a college education. At least 100,000 IT professionals moved out of Russia in 2022, a Kremlin official estimated last year.

In addition, data also suggest the Russians who fled were significantly wealthier, as nearly 11.5% of personal savings that were in Russian banks at the end of 2021 were were transferred abroad in 2022, amounting to about 4 trillion rubles ($41.5 billion).

A shrinking population of skilled professionals bodes ill for the Russian economy. When highly skilled workers leave, economic opportunities depart with them, which will bring Russia's living standards to the level of other former Soviet states, the Atlantic Council said in a report.

Without migration to fill the labor gap, and paired with declining birth rates, the Russian economy is expected to shrink.

In fact, the Atlantic Council estimated that Russia's GDP, as measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), will fall behind Indonesia's in 2026, nearly two years earlier than would've been the case had Putin not launched his war on Ukraine. By then, they will switch places as the world's sixth and seventh largest economies by PPP.

 

[Teufel]

TG of “Bakhmut Demon” mentions 30 tanks/armored vehicles were used in this direction, but don’t stop the presses on such claims. Just offering numbers to quantify “heaviest defeat”, note claim is were used - not destroyed.

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by Teufel

[dan/california]

51 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

One more Bayraktar strike - I suppose it could be not "Ural truck", but some more valuable, like EW or communication vehicle.

Interesting, some Russian TGs claimed three days ago UKR troops landed on Kinburn spit, no info was from our sourses, but maybe today's videios with Bayraktar strikes can be tied with this

 

There is suddenly a bunch of Baryaktar videos floating around the web. Is this because Russian air defenses are stretched so thin they can operate more freely? Or the AFU just decided to put some up?

[Teufel]

Previously mentioned settlement south of Vuhledar, that Tom Cooper apparently was fantasizing about according to Haiduk. Lo and behold, Pavlivka.

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by Teufel

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Teufel said:

 

 

Great stuff Teufel.  I've been wondering about night vision and how that might help UKR in the coming months.  The leaves will be gone, losing cover for both attackers and defenders.  The nights will become much longer.  Both of these mean that thermal/night vision becomes an advantage.  No foliage to hide under and lots of hours of very very scary darkness.  Of course, RU has some night vision but not nearly as much.  UKR will probably have enough to supply to infantry units that will work on infiltrating and eliminating RU strongpoints.  

Meanwhile the evidence mounts, as you showed in your post, that RU is having a lot of trouble plugging holes even in the most obvious crisis sector.  I bet UKR high command was quietly pleased as RU burned up all it's mobile combat power & potential reserve forces in pointless attacks for the last 9 months.

[Teufel]

Some additional areal footage.

 

[Offshoot]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Here photos, if somebody lack Tg:

Copetires... Tirecoping... Vulcopium? Anyway, what an occassion for Trent Telenko to go back in style.

As an ad hoc measure it might not be so bad. I linked to this video earlier ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHy-Rv2Lpvg&t=64s ) showing that the Ukrainians are using air burst drones to attack planes, so the tyres could well stop some of the pellets and reduce damage and risk of catastrophic effects on fuel tanks. Obviously it's not 100% protection of even the vital parts but could reduce risk until something better is developed. It must be a real pain though to take off and put back on again after every mission.

 

[Fenris]

Interesting clip - looks like RU attack helo chasing and firing it's gun at a UKR drone. Caption says is Crimea, looks like it's over water.  I was hopeful that the fast moving thing coming from the right towards the end was a SAM but it's only the operator'ss mouse pointer

Thread detailing of each of the 26 Bradley's lost thus far, based on the work of the Oryx team.

 

And this is dark humour or maybe karma. Looks like two guys having an fight, it doesn't end well.

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by Fenris

[Beleg85]

22 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

As an ad hoc measure it might not be so bad. I linked to this video earlier ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHy-Rv2Lpvg&t=64s ) showing that the Ukrainians are using air burst drones to attack planes, so the tyres could well stop some of the pellets and reduce damage and risk of catastrophic effects on fuel tanks. Obviously it's not 100% protection of even the vital parts but could reduce risk until something better is developed. It must be a real pain though to take off and put back on again after every mission.

 

Hmm perhaps they provide some limited cover, but they still have holes and unprotected spaces. Not to mention pellets could penetrate tire. Even some wood cover would be better, and less nightmarish to remove when in need. I suppose some issues of satellite reconaissance or missile guidance were perhaps at play here.

This is strategic bomber squadron, top nuke-wielding asset in the arsenal of global superpower...and they cover it with used tires. I mean, c'mon ;)... Imagine USAF suddenly covering their B-2's and B-52's with monster truck tires.

[hcrof]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Hmm perhaps they provide some limited cover, but they still have holes and unprotected spaces. Not to mention pellets could penetrate tire. Even some wood cover would be better, and less nightmarish to remove when in need. I suppose some issues of satellite reconaissance or missile guidance were perhaps at play here.

This is strategic bomber squadron, top nuke-wielding asset in the arsenal of global superpower...and they cover it with used tires. I mean, c'mon ;)... Imagine USAF suddenly covering their B-2's and B-52's with monster truck tires.

Those tires are also gonna be flammable - just dump a Molotov cocktail on them and the plane will go up like a torch!

[Offshoot]

8 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Hmm perhaps they provide some limited cover, but they still have holes and unprotected spaces. Not to mention pellets could penetrate tire. Even some wood cover would be better, and less nightmarish to remove when in need. I suppose some issues of satellite reconaissance or missile guidance were perhaps at play here.

This is strategic bomber squadron, top nuke-wielding asset in the arsenal of global superpower...and they cover it with used tires. I mean, c'mon ;)... Imagine USAF suddenly covering their B-2's and B-52's with monster truck tires.

Still, it is better than nothing, just how much better we don't know. But it clearly does show that Russia was in no way prepared, or perhaps never even expected, that Ukraine would bring the war to their territory.

I wonder how prepared for this they are, assuming it isn't just psyops:

Ukrainian-made missile able to hit targets 1,500 km inside Russia nearly ready - https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-will-be-able-to-hit-russian-targets-located-1-500-km-away-50350864.html

Quote

The Ukrainian military will soon be able to strike targets located as far as 1,500 km into Russian territory, National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) secretary, Oleksiy Danilov, said on Ukrainian Radio.

 

[chuckdyke]

Some good point of a veteran tank commander.

 

[Fenris]

On 9/3/2023 at 5:52 AM, Haiduk said:

First evidences of Challenger 2 in action. But from what tanker told it becomes clear, why these tank were in the shadow. 

This guy (he served on T-64, T-72, T-80) says, Challenger has very accurate gun and targeting system, which allows to hit enemy targets from very big ranges. This is tracked "sniper rifle", So, Challengers don't use like other tanks for "сarousel" and infantry support with HE shells. Challengers have a task to hit enemy armor from big distance in shoot&scoot way. Tanker also praises easy of service and repair works in comparison with Soviet tanks as well as these tanks give more chanses to survive after hit or even several hits. 

Tanker also told about tanks increadibly raise infantry morale and if these are western tanks, morale increasing more high, so infantry then is ready to follow them and just kick off the enemy from the trenches with a legs. 

 

 

Same clip with sub-titles

 

[dan/california]

• Quote

   

  • https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-3-2023
  •  
  • Ukrainian military officers offered notably frank and direct commentary about the prospects of further Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast and indicated that the series of prepared Russian defensive positions immediately ahead and further south of the Ukrainian advance may be less challenging to Ukrainian forces.
  • Ukrainian military officials particularly noted that advancing Ukrainian forces can operate more freely in areas with sparser Russian minefields.
  • Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 3.
  • Several Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to operate on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River in occupied Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast on September 3.
  • The Russian military appears to be recruiting personnel at scale through ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts, although the quality and allocation of these new servicemembers remain unclear.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk, in the western Donetsk–eastern Zaporizhia border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 3.
  • Russian law enforcement is patrolling and guarding polling stations in occupied Ukraine to prevent citizens from expressing opposition to the elections and recording the voting process.

   

AFU says they have breached the worst of it. Unless they are totally blowing smoke I expect it to be an interesting week.

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/03/us/cluster-weapons-ukraine-troops.html

Of course the NYT has picked this moment to expound endlessly on the dangers of cluster munitions. They have two interrelated and deeply held misconceptions. The first is that Russia hasn't already mined the front lines on an unimaginable scale. The second is that Ukraine had some mythical better choice that didn't involve the U.S. Air Force joining this war.  

 

[kevinkin]

6 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Ukraine’s strategic center of gravity is the White House. 

Great point. And I like the reference to maneuver warfare that few understand. Keeping the printing presses going in the name of liberty is vital for Ukraine. That requires marketing the voting public and is key to the war effort. POTUS has to wake up and get out of bed and make the case to US tax payers that there is a strategy with an end game positive to the US and our allies while keeping Ukraine whole. Otherwise, it's another embarrassing defeat for the US. In other words, the case has to made that the US can win the war with debased currency and prevent a draw. A draw would be humiliating to me and so many others who follow the conflict given the losses suffered by Ukraine. On this holiday weekend in the US we should raise our glass to Ukraine fighting a nuclear power with two arms tied behind their backs.  

Edited September 4, 2023 by kevinkin

[cesmonkey]

50 minutes ago, dan/california said:

•  

AFU says they have breached the worst of it. Unless they are totally blowing smoke I expect it to be an interesting week.

 

I would like to think so, but given that the Russians have to only defend a relatively narrow front for their next lines of defense versus a very large front for their forward lines of defense, I will wait for real evidence of a significant breakthrough.

[JonS]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

A draw would be humiliating to me and so many others

Lol. Way to make it all about you: Kill more people, plz, so I may avoid imagined humiliation.

Edited September 4, 2023 by JonS

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

•  

AFU says they have breached the worst of it. Unless they are totally blowing smoke I expect it to be an interesting week.

 

This is what we've been hoping for, that the RU defenses are increasingly weak.  Those cluster munitions have to be quite a morale issue for RU.  Risk of getting shreaded every time they are out of their ditches.   I saw report today that UKR pushing again toward Vasylivka and also of advances around Urozhaine.  My fear is that RU can rob from sections of the line to stop UKR at Robotyne.  But UKR pressing in multiple areas should make that more difficult (I hope).

KEVINKIN: I am assuming you just used your words poorly in that one phrase.  So hopefully won't feel the need to get into  debate w JonS and thereby derail the thread.