How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

Another day, another posadka for 3rd Assault Brigade:

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, Joe982 said:

The money to build the truck has already been spent. And the truck was always going to wear out. It is not really a loss of capital today. It was an expense when it was paid for, probably years ago.

It is not compulsory to build another one. Instead a sensible general would have other replacement trucks in the rear areas. Those trucks have already been paid for. Probably before the war started.

 

What you are talking about is planned replacement.  10 trucks getting blown up is not planned.  At least not by Russia :)

The truck exists because it serves a purpose.  If the truck isn't there, that purpose either wasn't real or it is and no longer being served.  In the former case replacement is not necessary, in the latter case it is.  The replacement comes at an expense, and that expense is not in the budget for the year if replacement was not expected.  Therefore, it is a new expense unless the trucks just so happened to be in their last year of planned life when they were blown up.

Further, when a piece of critical equipment unexpectedly goes missing, an immediate problem occurs where the service it is intended to provide isn't.  It's all well and good to say "I have another snow plow truck a day's drive away" when it's the summer, it's another thing if you're in a blizzard and your snow plow truck becomes inoperable. 

In no country on Earth is there an endless supply of trucks sitting around doing nothing.  These trucks (which were destroyed last year) probably were fairly easily replaced by trucks from somewhere else in the Russian Federation or Belarus.  But it took a while to get them to the front and wherever they came from no longer had them to use for their own needs.  Which is why they need replacing and the funding for that is a new expense.

I will also remind everybody that Russia's losses last year were so sudden and severe that we stated seeing civilian trucks in the warzone.  This indicates the strain on logistics was acute.  Eventually military trucks were transported from somewhere, likely very far away as all the close units were already in Ukraine.  I takes time to get trucks from Siberia to Ukraine.

Steve

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, Teufel said:

 

This is good news, thanks for sharing Teufel.  I am still hoping for UKR to have some success toward Luhove.  This would really stretch RU forces if they had to reinforce here also.  And you bring news that there's advance south of Urozhaine.  This is really great news.  I don't like MRAPS hit by drones, though.  Hopefully UKR's campaign of supply degradation will mean they don't have an endless supply of those drones on hand when needed. 

If UKR can get success w existing forces on other sectors while RU has to reinforce w/o reserves to hold those sectors then it seems something likely to break somewhere.

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Teufel said:

Not wishing to promote JR or his work but not seen this elsewhere. Russians being Russians, guess the expression “when in Rome…” was lost in translation.

 

My vote, if they catch him, is to deport him to Ukraine. Ukraine can deport him to Russia with a trebuchet, or perhaps pack him into naval drone.

Edited September 2, 2023 by dan/california

[kevinkin]

10 hours ago, dan/california said:

Yes on occasion we bombed our on side, but we bombed the Germans a GREAT deal more.

Operation Cobra was preceded by around 600 Allied fighter-bombers attacking strongpoints and enemy artillery along a 270 m (300 yd)-wide strip of ground located in the St. Lô area. For the next hour, 1,800 heavy bombers of the U.S. Eighth Air Force saturated a 6,000 yd × 2,200 yd (3.4 mi × 1.3 mi; 5.5 km × 2.0 km) area on the Saint-Lô–Periers road, succeeded by a third and final wave of medium bombers. Approximately 3,000 U.S. aircraft had carpet-bombed a narrow section of the front, with the Panzer-Lehr-Division taking the brunt of the attack.

With a concentrated aerial bombardment using state of the art technology the UA would be in exploitation phase now. NATO supplied mech units gunning down those Russians that don't surrender. The numbers that do surrender would actually be the only impediment. Unfortunately, the UA does not have those cards to play. But the US does. The +/- of such an approach has been discussed to death already. It's like watching a loved one die because the cure is being withheld for the greater good.   

 

[sburke]

Putin's plan to control remote Siberian region goes awry (yahoo.com)

The 35-year-old Russian Communist Party pin-up, who regards Vladimir Lenin as his political hero, became governor of Khakassia in 2018 off the back of public resentment at the Kremlin’s increase to the age of retirement.

The Kremlin tried to derail Mr Konovalov’s victory in 2018 by repeatedly cancelling a second round of voting until it decided to relent and instead revenge the humiliation at this year’s regional elections.

Mr Gallyamov said that Sergey Kiriyenko, Putin’s election strategist, first used the Kremlin’s propaganda machine to discredit Mr Konovalov and then parachuted in Sergei Sokol, a Russian MP “war hero”, to be the United Russia candidate.

But this plan has failed, he said, because the Kremlin had to win the election fairly as it does not control the main administrative resources in Khakassia and Mr Sokol was a weak candidate as he was too obviously “Moscow’s candidate” for people to stomach.

“As election day approached, it became increasingly clear that Sokol would lose,” Mr Gallyamov said.

This assessment was backed up by pro-government Russian media, with RBK reporting that secret polls showed Mr Sokol would embarrass the Kremlin.

So with a week to go before the vote, Mr Sokol has decided to quit and on Saturday he posted a Telegram message from hospital saying that he was too ill to stand.

“Being a governor is a serious and responsible job and you can’t be out of action even for a day,” he said.

Mr Sokol had based his campaign on his support for Putin’s war in Ukraine after he served in the Cascade VIP battalion in occupied Donbas. It was set up to allow politicians to pose in military uniform miles behind the frontlines to fly drones rather than defend trenches.

Medusa, a Russian opposition website, said that with its election plan in tatters, the Kremlin now wanted to cancel the governorship election in Khakassia.

It quoted sources saying that officials had been sent from Moscow to find alleged voter fraud and pressure all the candidates to pull out, allowing the Kremlin to appoint a governor.

“Sokol has become a black swan, but we’ll figure it out,” said a source close to the presidential administration.

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

“Sokol has become a black swan, but we’ll figure it out,” said a source close to the presidential administration.

"Sokol" means "falcon" in bunch of Slavic languages, so this is pretty funny sentence.

[Haiduk]

15 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

the 25th CAA has not completed its formation or its training, yet it is being committed to frontline positions.

This is anouncement, inviting for contract service to 25th CAA

25th CAA is a reserve of Supreme Commander RU AF. Up to Sep 1 it has been passing formation stage

From Sep 1 to Dec 1 - stage of of combat cohesion - from personal training to cohesion in composition of brigades and regiments

From Dec 1 - deployment to Zaporozhian and Kherson oblast

Requirements: age from 18 to 65 y.o., education not less of 9th grade

Increased cash allowance:

Lump sum: 600 000 Rubles

Salary: from 200 000 Rubles 

[Haiduk]

First evidences of Challenger 2 in action. But from what tanker told it becomes clear, why these tank were in the shadow. 

This guy (he served on T-64, T-72, T-80) says, Challenger has very accurate gun and targeting system, which allows to hit enemy targets from very big ranges. This is tracked "sniper rifle", So, Challengers don't use like other tanks for "сarousel" and infantry support with HE shells. Challengers have a task to hit enemy armor from big distance in shoot&scoot way. Tanker also praises easy of service and repair works in comparison with Soviet tanks as well as these tanks give more chanses to survive after hit or even several hits. 

Tanker also told about tanks increadibly raise infantry morale and if these are western tanks, morale increasing more high, so infantry then is ready to follow them and just kick off the enemy from the trenches with a legs. 

 

Edited September 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

New video of 3rd mech. battalion of 93rd mech.brigade training with CV90. Soldiers practice assault of flooded trenches - a clear sign, that they prepare to deep autumn assaults, when trenches can be full of water and mud. If somebody think UKR offensive will stop in late September, I doubt.

 

[Haiduk]

Rare guest. Near Odesa was shot down Mohajer-6 UCAV

[Haiduk]

M-ATV  Oshkosh has protected crew from 12,7 mm bullets and fragments of 152 mm shell. Armored car will go to repair. Khorn group, 116th mech.brigade.

 

Edited September 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[Vanir Ausf B]

41 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This guy (he served on T-64, T-72, T-80) says, Challenger has very accurate gun and targeting system, which allows to hit enemy targets from very big ranges. This is tracked "sniper rifle", So, Challengers don't use like other tanks for "сarousel" and infantry support with HE shells. Challengers have a task to hit enemy armor from big distance in shoot&scoot way.

Very interesting. On paper the Challenger 2s main cannon should have anti-armor performance similar to Leopard 2a6 (both are 120L55), which makes me wonder if this dedicated anti-armor role is mostly because the Challenger 2s anti-personnel rounds are HESH rather than HE.

Edited September 2, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B

[danfrodo]

51 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is anouncement, inviting for contract service to 25th CAA

25th CAA is a reserve of Supreme Commander RU AF. Up to Sep 1 it has been passing formation stage

From Sep 1 to Dec 1 - stage of of combat cohesion - from personal training to cohesion in composition of brigades and regiments

From Dec 1 - deployment to Zaporozhian and Kherson oblast

Requirements: age from 18 to 65 y.o., education not less of 9th grade

Increased cash allowance:

Lump sum: 600 000 Rubles

Salary: from 200 000 Rubles 

I love this.  Telling the suckers that 25 CAA is a reserve unit until Dec 1.  Of course it is.

"Don't worry comrade, you'll make a bunch of money to just train the rear for months, then be in reserve.  War will soon be over due to our wonder weapons and you probably won't see any of it.  What's that?  Comrade, you know that Putin would never allow new soldiers to be sent to the front without months of training & preparation.  He loves his soldiers, for he is the heart of the Motherland."

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Very interesting. On paper the Challenger 2s main cannon should have anti-armor performance similar to Leopard 2a6 (both are 120L55), which makes me wonder if this dedicated anti-armor role is mostly because the Challenger 2s anti-personal rounds are HESH rather than HE.

He says about this, literally "It's unlike our tanks with HE shells for infantry, no, these [Challengers] tanks were designed to fight Soviet tanks, not infantry, against infantry there are other infantry and artillery"

I think, maybe HE/HESH ammo for UKR Challengers are limited, so they use to hunt armor.

Edited September 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[Eddy]

2 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

On paper the Challenger 2s main cannon should have anti-armor performance similar to Leopard

Challenger is rifled so perhaps that gives it better accuracy. Also uses DU rather than tungsten.  

[Haiduk]

UKR FPV drone of "Aсhilles" UCAV company of 92nd assault brigade has coocked TOS-1, equipped with BBQ cage

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

He says about this, literally "It's unlike our tanks with HE shells for infantry, no, these [Challengers] tanks were designed to fight Soviet tanks, not infantry, against infantry there are other infantry and artillery"

I think, maybe HE/HESH ammo for UKR Challengers are limited, so they use to hunt armor.

Thanks. That confirms my suspicion. The L31A7 HESH round has been out of production for years, AFAIK.

[dan/california]

52 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR FPV drone of "Aсhilles" UCAV company of 92nd assault brigade has coocked TOS-1, equipped with BBQ cage

 

Is this the one that took a shot at Ukraines lodgement on the left bank of the Dnipro a day or two ago? I had a feeling it become a very high priority target. Honestly the risk of getting barbecued driving one of these is so high I wonder how they get people to do it. I will also note they make them drive around by themselves, they are so dangerous to even be near.

[Teufel]

UKR Edition of Pimp My Ride

Holiday traffic jams while Russians return home after spending holidays in Ukraine.

Not to be forgotten as part of ongoing genocide by Russians.

 

Edited September 2, 2023 by Teufel

[dan/california]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1698060278145945947.html

Quote

1/ Wounded Wagner fighters have reportedly been thrown out of hospitals with their treatments unfinished, their payments for medical care have been terminated, and payments and benefits to their families have also stopped. "A total scam!", says one outraged Wagnerite

Russian government has cut off all payments to wounded and dead wagnerites. Oddly enough they are not very happy. I think there is very real risk for Putin here having thousands of these walking around with a grudge. Thread reader app link included above.

[Fenris]

I saw a similar post on Dmitri's twitter (the wartranslated guy) a couple of days ago.  Clip is an ex Wagner man in a wheel chair who is now homeless and can't get treatment or any sort of support.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

52 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1698060278145945947.html

Russian government has cut off all payments to wounded and dead wagnerites. Oddly enough they are not very happy. I think there is very real risk for Putin here having thousands of these walking around with a grudge. Thread reader app link included above.

What a shame it would be if some former Wagner fighter with a name that is the Russian equivalent of Oswald, would get some ideas about Putin.

[sburke]

ISW: Russian officers reportedly contact former general amid deteriorating conditions on front line (yahoo.com)

Officers from the Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast have reportedly reached out to their former commander, Major General Ivan Popov, the Institute for the Study of War said in their latest update. This development comes as the situation on the Russian front line continues to deteriorate.

Russian military bloggers have claimed that Major General Popov has maintained communication with his former subordinates in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast. According to their sources, these officers turned to Popov for assistance instead of relying on their new commander. This move appears to reflect a lack of trust or confidence in their current leadership.

Popov was dismissed from his position as the commander of the 58th CAA (Southern Military District) in early July. His removal came after he engaged in clear insubordination by attempting to bypass Chief of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, and directly raise concerns with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Popov's grievances included issues related to poor counterbattery capabilities, heavy losses, and a lack of troop rotations, according to ISW.

Popov's actions seemed to set a precedent for insubordination within the Russian military ranks, prompting reports of the removal of other similarly defiant commanders from front-line units, although not all of these reports were confirmed.

"Popov’s contact with his former subordinates, if true, suggests that Popov’s replacement has not won the trust of his subordinates either because he is less competent or because he is less forthright with senior Russian leadership about continuing challenges facing the Russian defense in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast," ISW concluded.

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, sburke said:

ISW: Russian officers reportedly contact former general amid deteriorating conditions on front line (yahoo.com)

Officers from the Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast have reportedly reached out to their former commander, Major General Ivan Popov, the Institute for the Study of War said in their latest update. This development comes as the situation on the Russian front line continues to deteriorate.

Russian military bloggers have claimed that Major General Popov has maintained communication with his former subordinates in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast. According to their sources, these officers turned to Popov for assistance instead of relying on their new commander. This move appears to reflect a lack of trust or confidence in their current leadership.

Popov was dismissed from his position as the commander of the 58th CAA (Southern Military District) in early July. His removal came after he engaged in clear insubordination by attempting to bypass Chief of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, and directly raise concerns with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Popov's grievances included issues related to poor counterbattery capabilities, heavy losses, and a lack of troop rotations, according to ISW.

Popov's actions seemed to set a precedent for insubordination within the Russian military ranks, prompting reports of the removal of other similarly defiant commanders from front-line units, although not all of these reports were confirmed.

"Popov’s contact with his former subordinates, if true, suggests that Popov’s replacement has not won the trust of his subordinates either because he is less competent or because he is less forthright with senior Russian leadership about continuing challenges facing the Russian defense in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast," ISW concluded.

I suspect Popov wishes he had joined Prig's parade when he had the chance. This going public seems like a blatant attempt to get him a one time flying lesson from the nearest window. Presumably the new guy in his old job is less than pleased with the situation. Hopefully this will lead to the whole 58th CAA falling apart in another round of purges.

Edited September 3, 2023 by dan/california