How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Best guess given what we have seen.

So based on road infrastructure break through to Tokmak and one has expanding operational options.  The greatest Russian military weakness of this war is manoeuvre.  They really suck at it.  They can drive but rapid manoeuvre to effect is not their strong point.  Their artillery and ISR are not set up for it and their C2 is badly built for it.  I would also bet money that their logistics can't support, especially with stuff constantly blowing up in the backfield.  The Russians are good at static warfare.  Digging in and sending wave after wave to die.  Or digging in like a tick and making life difficult.  IF the UA can break through then they can effectively cut that corridor as long as they force the RA into reactive situation that will require rapid manoeuvre. In the area we are talking about that is Tokmak.  Vasylivka is a good secondary because it also greatly expands operational options.

Take Tokmak and Melitopol is 40 kms away, they could sweep that area with ISR and artillery.  This would effectively force the RA MSR along the M14, plus any back country roads...that is a narrow branch to sit on, and the other guy is on the truck with a hand saw.  Could they keep up tempo? Going to have to or the RA will just dig in like a big red blob and they will have to do this all over again next spring.  They do not need to take Melitopol.  In fact that would play to Russia's strength of digging in.  Cut it off and Kherson the place.  Keep expanding the option spaces and get M14 within gun range and this thing is over as far as the strategic land bridge is concerned.

Another note re logistics -  in response to HIMARS et al Russia's has dispersed and atomised its supply. No large convoys,  just 1-2 trucks,  in relays,  fast moving, short drop off/load up. 

This is fine when the front is slow but if it kicks off into a sudden surge throughput then RuA logistics could suddenly start failing in cascade because its not able to concentrate sufficient quantities in short enough time, and when it tries to it gets HIMARS up the wazoo. 

UKR strikes have deformed local RUS logistics into a weird, situation specific  and reactive shape, away from an organizationally deep and somewhat operationally sound form. This has created a seemingly flexible approach but it possibly has no sustained surge capacity if the front is suddenly over matched. 

I don't think UKR will be able to out run RUS logs but overwhelm it with a widespread demand it cannot meet. 

I wonder how this would manifest... 

Edited August 25, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

Interesting, looks like UKR has a new wonder weapon

 

I bet it's a former farmer throwing that stick... 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1694592306957951005.html

1/ Deputies in Russia's State Duma are reportedly celebrating Yevgeny Prigozhin's death: "Yefim [Prigozhin] died — well, **** him." They are in no doubt that Putin had him killed, but say they are happy about it: "we are dancing," says one deputy.

 

 

[Vet 0369]

12 hours ago, Haiduk said:

We already were liberating in 2014 Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Mariuopol, Kostiantynivka and many other towns and villages on Donbas, where locals were "on edge", brainwashed and intimidated after Maidan bu Russian propaganda and local semi-crimimnal lords. Many of them, of course even not 50 %, but anyway really many tied own expectations with Russia. They had hopes Russia will come and their level of life and salaries will grow up to Moscow level. Ukriane liberated these cities and what? They in mass became organize partisan squads? No. All what they could do it scold Ukriane on own kitchens or as ecxeption to spy for LDPR. Alas, Ukraine authorities didn't make filtrations in that time and almost all who organize "referendums", almost all local elites, who supported separatists, but didn't flee - almost all remained at power.

So now we can see paradoxal situation - on occupied terririories, which already 9 years could "enjoy" with Russian order, the level of frustration and dissatisfaction with Russia and own puppet rulers is much more than on Donbas territories liberated in 2014, where people hadn't much time to feel all pearls of Russian World. Because of this so many locals, who to this time expect "when our boys will liberate us from banderites", but they in 99 % never will take arms in own hands. This is just difefrence in mentality. Their capability to self-organization, for establishing of decentralized network is too low, in comparison with centaral and western Ukraine. They alway will expect directives of own chiefs. They need "big boss", but anyway even if he will come, most of them will not aste to enlist.

As far as during ATO Russian milblogegrs wrote local men support Russia only by words, but didn't want to enlist in LDPR troops, so units have significant problems with staffing. It's need a big war, that put Donbas men into army by "iron hand power". So, I don't belive in fierce resistance of locals on Donbas. Maybe something can be in part of Crimea, espacially around Sevastopol, where popu;ation is extreme even not so pro-Russian, but pro-Soviet. Citizens of Sevastopol for example hate new settlers, coming to their city from "continental Russia"  

Cue my post some hundreds of pages ago on how in 1973,  the U.S.M.C. ran mandatory classes that taught us that the majority of humanity doesn’t care who rules them as long as they have the necessary creature comforts such as food, water, shelter, and etc.

 

 

[Kinophile]

https://kyivindependent.com/media-satellite-images-show-wagner-camp-in-belarus-being-dismantled/

Wagner getting taken apart. 

[riptides]

34 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I bet it's a former farmer throwing that stick... 

Reminded me of 2001 a space odyssey.  The humanoid apes learning and using the stick against the backdrop of the obelisk. 

[JonS]

56 minutes ago, riptides said:

Reminded me of Barbie.  The proto-humanoids learning and using the stick against the backdrop of the obelisk. 

FTFY

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, paxromana said:

I presume that, in both cases, it would not be 'ethnic cleansing' to expel all foreign (i.e. non-local aka Russian citizen) incomers who have arrived since 2014 and re-import all the expelled or fled Ukrainian citizens (including the Crimean Tartars)?

I cannot see Western authorities seeing that as 'ethnic cleansing' ... 

How much of a difference would that make?

It absolutely is NOT ethnic cleansing to expel people who have illegally entered your country.  Every country agrees with that.  So, first thing to do is to expel everybody in Crimea who does not hold Ukrainian citizenship.  Not that I think there will be many that fit that description.  The mainland Russians are going to leave en mas when it becomes clear that change is going to happen.  Aside from that, any pro-Russian Ukrainian has a Russian passport, so there's a large chunk of them that are going to head east when it is clear that Crimea is once again going to be Ukrainian. 

Of those that remain, they will for the most part be neutral, Ukrainian with Russian leanings, or pro-Ukrainian.  Ukraine is not expelling its pro-Russian citizens now, so they won't likely do it in Crimea either.  What they will likely do is start prosecuting anybody that committed treason and other offenses.  Which is the right thing to do.  Hence why so many will be looking to leave Crimea if there's a change of government looming.

Crimea will be a difficult territory to govern, but I do not see a significant insurgency happening.  Especially because the conditions that would allow Ukraine to restore Crimea are not likely conducive to messing around outside of its borders.  Especially if Russia fully collapses as a state.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.threads.net/@mx_ukraine/post/CwVUCaeORoC

 

Ukraines best hack yet. The broke into some brand of cctv cameras that have speakers. they played the Ukrainian national anthem and recorded people reactions. Absolutely hilarious, a lot of them were terrifed they would be blamed and had bought a one way ticket to Siberia, or Bakmuht.

Edited August 25, 2023 by dan/california

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

 

Ukraines best hack yet. The broke into some brand of cctv cameras that have speakers. they played the Ukrainian national anthem and recorded people reactions. Absolutely hilarious, a lot of them were terrifed they would be blamed and had bought a one way ticket to Siberia, or Bakmuht.

Actually it's interesting the number that were smiling or laughing about the hack ... not exactly the signs one would expect of a population which 90% supports the putinists!

Edited August 25, 2023 by paxromana

[FancyCat]

Anyone got a WSJ sub? https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/prigozhin-wagner-plane-crash-last-days-2c44dd5c

Quote

Putin had personally told Touadera, the Central African Republic president, that the time had come to distance himself from Prigozhin. When Touadera visited St. Petersburg last month, he abstained from taking a selfie with the Russian warlord

Since June, the Kremlin had been trying to assert control over that shadowy web of murky arrangements. The Defense Ministry had been dispatching delegations to inform foreign governments that they would henceforth do business directly with the Russian state

Prigozhin’s mutiny had left Haftar, the Libyan warlord who had paid Wagner for securing its oil wells and territory, and his close circle nervous about Wagner’s presence in Libya “They felt that if they do it in Russia, they can do it in Benghazi”

Prigozhin’s death “doesn’t change anything,” a Nigerian intelligence official said. “Russia is still there. When the Wagner leader is gone, they are still active in Africa…Maybe now the Kremlin’s hands will be more strengthened.”

“I need more gold,” Prigozhin said, according to a Sudanese official familiar with the conversation.

 

Quote

Great WSJ story on Prigozhin’s last days Something that’s been bothering me since yesterday—why kill Prigozhin now. Putin doesn’t rush into things and often waits years to kill ‘traitors’ The answer— it was not about the mutiny. It was about business, as it always is in Russia

Putin/Defense Ministry/GRU were muscling in to take over Prigozhin’s Africa business and he dared to resist. He did not get the message after the June mutiny—that it was time to apologize and disappear, go to Belarus or wherever. Not fight for control of business in Africa

That is what doomed him If he had just gone away to sip margaritas in the Maldives and turned over all his businesses to Putin and Co. as penance instead of fighting to preserve them, he would probably still be alive today Of course, we will never know..

Putin even talked about Prigozhin’s Africa business in some detail in his condolence speech - mentioning his oil, gas, precious metals and stones businesses. It was very strange and weirdly out of place. But now it all makes sense

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

 

Ukraines best hack yet. The broke into some brand of cctv cameras that have speakers. they played the Ukrainian national anthem and recorded people reactions. Absolutely hilarious, a lot of them were terrifed they would be blamed and had bought a one way ticket to Siberia, or Bakmuht.

Amusement, fear and indignation all at once.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[_Morpheus_]

Robotyne, Ukrainian SSO: 

 

Edited August 25, 2023 by _Morpheus_

[_Morpheus_]

SSO snipers in Bakhmut:
 

 

[cesmonkey]

From the daily summary of Russian telegrammer Two Majors:
https://t.me/dva_majors/24256
 

Quote

On the Zaporozhye front in Rabotino , the most difficult bloody battles are going on, they report a shift in the line of contact to the southern part of the settlement, and armored vehicles are being used. The enemy is also attacking to the east, to the direction of Malaya Tokmachka , our aviation is working on it, helping the troops on the ground. By nightfall, our forces opened the transfer of a column of 82 units of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Orekhovo , a strike on Verbovoye is possible , foreign speech is heard in the radio intercepts .

 

Edited August 25, 2023 by cesmonkey

[Teufel]

9 hours ago, Twisk said:

Are we sure that Putin ordered the killing?

Wagner is in a weaker position but it creates a situation where the top level Wagner people may become fearful for their lives and feel forced to take action. If you are a layer under Prighozin do you feel safe? What if you are 2 people down the chain of Wagner? Why would someone who has a stake in Wagner feel safe?

Not trying to be funny but there was an old saying behind the iron curtain that went; ”in Sovjet Russia nothing ever happens by chance”.

One of those cases where we don’t need proof. Even if Putin wasn’t involved, what benefit would he gain by denying involvement? Plausible deniability, to protect himself from what? Charges of murdering 10 people while wanted by ICC for war crimes and genocide?

On the level of suspect standing trial for first degree murder with overwhelming evidence against him. And the prosecutor suddenly adds shoplifting charges. Even if the suspect did not shoplift, does it make any difference in overall case?

Putin being involved or not don’t matter, in perception of reality outside of Russia - Putin is involved, period.

There is however zero reason for Putin to care about anything but the fact that potential enemy is gone. What signals that sends, what it makes others think or not, is in my opinion, not reason for the killing. Whatever consequences that has or has not will be handled if and when they occur. Don’t know why we keep seeing these people and their rationale in lens of logical reasoning.

Rational thinking doesn’t apply to crazy and let’s not credit them with criminal mastermind behavior. Just simple criminals with pragmatic motives and actions.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Teufel

[cesmonkey]

 

[kraze]

10 hours ago, Twisk said:

Are we sure that Putin ordered the killing?

Prig betrayed his master. Keeping traitors alive sends a signal to other would be traitors that they can get away with it. There can be no one else to benefit so much from it.

[Teufel]

Scraping the bottom of the barrel, T-10 next in line. No wonder those WW2 museums are closing. Running out of T-34 and all other contemporary equipment it seems. 

 

Edited August 25, 2023 by Teufel

[The_MonkeyKing]

Good reading to refresh: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1655584386601951238.html

Ukraine is now reaching zone3

"Zone 4: Prepared main defensive line. Massive multilayered trench lines with anti-tank ditches and dragons’ teeth obstacles. Extensive minefields are likely. These fortifications form nearly uniformly continuous defensive belt across the front. Built 3-4km deep."

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, Teufel said:

Scraping the bottom of the barrel, T-10 next in line. No wonder those WW2 museums are closing. Running out of T-34 and all other contemporary equipment it seems. 

 

This is likely from a reenactment event or similar and has nothing to do with Ukraine. The Sushko account often posts such misleading tweets, showing an old or unrelated video and claiming it's recent.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Anyone got a WSJ sub? https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/prigozhin-wagner-plane-crash-last-days-2c44dd5c

 

 

 

Alperovitch is spot on.  One thing has been clear, especially in the days before Prig's plane went down, that the Kremlin had accelerated the full dismantling of Wagner.  The direct poaching of Wagner leaders and fighters, the MoD controlled PMCs angling to take over African ops, Putin meeting with African leaders and talking about this stuff, etc. was all there out in the open and mentioned here (i.e. we understood it was significant, even if not the significance of it).  Once the MoD had control over Africa's operations, Wagner's usefulness to the Kremlin would go to zero.  And with that, Prig's usefulness.

I agree with Alperovitch that Prig's mistake was not willingly going along with this and generally "playing nice".  After the deal to exile in Belarus was made he should have started down this road, but did the opposite.  Since this wasn't very logical, the assumption was that he was more protected than it seemed.  Now it looks like even if that started out being the case, his allies backed away from him as he kept up the act.

One thing I don't get about Prig is how he didn't think this was the obvious way it would end if he tried to out-tough Putin.  Prig might be in command of murders, but Putin is in command of assassins.  There's a difference and it matters.

Yet another example of someone who is smart enough and cunning enough to ascend the ranks of an organization, but not enough to stay on top.  Musk should take note

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

 

 

 

Some interesting behind the curtains stuff coming out

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Good reading to refresh: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1655584386601951238.html

Ukraine is now reaching zone3

"Zone 4: Prepared main defensive line. Massive multilayered trench lines with anti-tank ditches and dragons’ teeth obstacles. Extensive minefields are likely. These fortifications form nearly uniformly continuous defensive belt across the front. Built 3-4km deep."

Thanks for that.

As stated before, it's pretty obvious that Russia is conducting this defense "by the books", which means the theory of the defenses is in place.  It is very clear that Russia has been investing heavily in making this theory come into reality. The question is... how thoroughly did it manage to make zones 3 and especially 4?  Does it match theory, or is it another example of the MoD half-assing the job?  If it has half-assed it, my assumption is this time it would be because of resource constraints rather than the usual corruption and/or incompetence reasons.

Here is the key element taken from the above thread:

as can be seen from this sentinel image, the Russian trench lines and fortifications continue on both sides of Solodka Balka strongpoint with multiple fallback positions and reserve trenches. Russians can deploy multiple battalions of infantry along this defensive belt

The word "can" is appropriate here because it establishes theory, not reality.  For example, Russia can launch a counter offensive with Armata tanks at any time as it have them sitting in a warehouse somewhere.  But WILL they do it?  Unlikely.  So CAN Russia deploy multiple battalions (full staffed) of infantry along this defensive belt?  Theoretically yes, but WILL they do it?  Evidence so far suggests they won't because they don't have those forces available and taking them away from other sectors of front isn't feasible (and certainly not advisable, as they learned with Kharkiv last year).

The most important point of failure for Russia is not having the manpower and/or equipment to man its defensive line properly.  All indications are that this is the current status of the frontline... undermanned, under resourced, and rapidly becoming worse with no easy way for Russia to change the equation.  Ukraine seems to have plenty of fight left in it, so there's reason to be hopeful that a breakthrough might be easier in reality than it would be in theory.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Some interesting behind the curtains stuff coming out

I think this is a situation where both the US and Ukraine are correct, but that the situation calls for something inbetween what each thinks should be done.  On the US side, cautioning against the Russian style "attack everywhere at the same time" is valid.  Especially since there's a strain on the supply of munitions that this strategy requires.  On the Ukrainian side, they are correct that concentrating large mechanized forces within 2-3km of the frontline is exceptionally risky.

What seems to be needed is a less mechanized force attacking in a very narrow front while NOT expending resources elsewhere.  The one exception seems to be Bakhmut, but I think there's merit in fixing Russian attention there as a distraction.  As has been seen, Ukraine is not investing heavily to keep that operation going, so it seems to fit.

Steve