How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

National Resistance Center: Wagner convoys head to Russia after fatal crash (yahoo.com)

Interesting if accurate.  Things are getting more complicated for the Mafia Don.

[Haiduk]

More footage of 22nd Aug incident with Russian jet attack on UKR RHIBs - here you can see how soldiers fire at the jet with small-arms and something like cloud of MANPAD explosion in the sky. Russian jet despite this continues own strafes and you can hear BRRRRT at the end and close hits

 

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good overview of the Lancet:

 

Steve

Platforms for Lancet launching. Our drone pilot told, alas, they only could spot them, but weren't free assets to strike it. He also told Russians usually launch Lancets from 15 km from contact line - too far for usual FPV drones and on the extreme range for best long-range FPV

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

It's interesting how of us have mentioned the possibility of a second Wagner rebellion - we've all just assumed that minus Prigozhin & Utkin Wagner is impotent/directionless. Perhaps Putin made the same assumptions. 

But per @sburke it might not be. Perhaps Prigozhin's implanted ideology has a life of its own... 

Wouldn't that be a poison pill par excellence...

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

Intense footage of 30th Brigade doing a mech assault on Russian positions

Fairly graphic!  https://t.me/aerobomber/143

The drone drops a colored smoke grenade to signal the tanks where to shoot

Who can't open TG here it. Place of attack - E40 road area NW from Bakmhut between Zalizniznianske and Dubovo-Vasylivka 

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Chibot Mk IX]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Platforms for Lancet launching. Our drone pilot told, alas, they only could spot them, but weren't free assets to strike it. He also told Russians usually launch Lancets from 15 km from contact line - too far for usual FPV drones and on the extreme range for best long-range FPV

 

Is it possible to engaging them with Arty/ICM? Assuming Russian will change the launch sites frequently, there should be some pattern.

[dan/california]

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

More footage of 22nd Aug incident with Russian jet attack on UKR RHIBs - here you can see how soldier fire at the jet with small-arms and something like cloud of MANPAD explosion in the sky. Russian jet despite this continues own strafes and you can hear BRRRRT at the end and close hits

 

 

This demonstrates two things. Ukrainian special forces are even braver than I thought they were, which is a HIGH bar. The other important fact here though is that the Russians must be truly and desperately short of PGMs for these planes to be engaging with guns. This had to be a max priority mission for the Russian air force, and the best they could do was an incompetent replay of 1953.

Edited August 24, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Is it possible to engaging them with Arty/ICM? Assuming Russian will change the launch sites frequently, there should be some pattern.

Of course, if you have free artillery.  

[hcrof]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This demonstrates two things. Ukrainian special forces are even braver than I thought they were, which is a HIGH bar. The other important fact here though is that the Russians must be truly and desperately short of PGMs for these planes to be engaging with guns. This had to be a max priority mission for the Russian air force, and the best they could do was an incompetent replay of 1953.

Perhaps that plane was doing a CAP with no air to ground weapons when it got re-tasked at short notice? 

Certainly not very competent...

[hcrof]

40 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

More footage of 22nd Aug incident with Russian jet attack on UKR RHIBs - here you can see how soldiers fire at the jet with small-arms and something like cloud of MANPAD explosion in the sky. Russian jet despite this continues own strafes and you can hear BRRRRT at the end and close hits

 

 

Must be scary for those guys!

Was it confirmed that a boat was destroyed or was that just russian make-believe?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

So did Ukraine merely destroy this radar? Which would be fantastic. Or did they temporarily capture the the control centers, have time to disassemble the main electronics and pack them in water proof bags, and depart with a couple of prisoners who happen to be the senior techs that kept the thing working? Because that would be off the charts.

Also isn't this a nearly exact copy of a British raid in 1941 or 1942? Do the Russians even HAVE history books anymore?

Tarkhankut has two sites - radar complexes Nebo-M + radar Kasta-2 and SAM site with own radars and launchers.

Yesterday with a missile strike was destroyed S-400 launcher as claimed. Today press-secreter of MoD made a statement except this several S-300 launchers were damaged  

After landing of GUR special force on the cape now is claiming they eliminated and wounded about 30 Russion soldiers and took out four speed boats. Nothing about destroyed radars - maybe they really attacked the barrack of radar personnel in the village. No details.

Later GUR chief Budanov made a statement that in result of these two days of attacks Russian SAM battatlion was "deactivated for some time". Looks like were damaged/destroyed some radars or command post, except known video with firewok of launcher. 

UKR military jourmnalist Yuriy Butuisov claims yesterday in first time UKR Neptun missile hit ground target and this was 48Ya6-K1 Podlyot extreme-low altitude radar, using in newest S-300 and S-400 complexes. But Butosov is a fan of hype and often gives unverified information. So, it's hard to say - either were more missiles launched at the site, than GUR showed, and except S-400 TEL this radar was hit, or this is just Butusov's wrong interpretation

Maybe later new videos will come.  

Edited August 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Must be scary for those guys!

Was it confirmed that a boat was destroyed or was that just russian make-believe?

If we see this video, more likely all ok with a boat. But there were two episodes as claimed Russians - one near Zmiinyi (known video from Russian jet) and near "Boiko's rig" filmed by UKR drone and by SOF soldiers on boats. In UKR twitter were rumors about sinking of boat near Zmiinyi, but to this time this didn't confirm even on RUMINT level. Maybe later we will know as we have been finding out about our naval ships and boats losses since weeks or even months. 

[Haiduk]

Russians in Tokmak under missile strike

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/prigozhin-plane-wine-crate-bomb-female-crew-member-last-minute-repairs/

A family member of the 39-year-old told the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel that Raspopova said the Embraer jet had been taken away for some kind of “incomprehensible” servicing or repairs ahead of the flight.

 

That was her clue to develop an epic case of digestive distress and immediately declare she was to sick to fly. Sadly she didn't realize it.

Edited August 24, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

In today's interview Budanov revealed some information about UKR maritime drones. 

He told Russians manage to destroy 60 or even 70 % of our drones, but rest of 30 % create problems for them. He also told an example of attack of drones, converted from hydrocycles on Sevastopol harbor. Russian frigate "Admiral Essen" has destroyed one drone, which attacked her, but close explosion - fragments and shock wave damaged sensitive radioelectronic equipment, hydroacoustic sensors and antennas on masts, so frigate was 3,5 months under repair  

Edited August 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the key point (in bold).  Any thoughts of Ukraine retaking Crimea and the Donbas within the next few years without a total Russian military collapse are fantasy.  Pure and simple.  It's one of the only things I disagree with when I hear Ben Hodges speak about the near term.  Russia will NEVER let Crimea go if it has a functioning military.  Even if the rest of Russia is in collapse, they will contest Crimea and make it prohibitively costly for Ukraine to retake it.

The Donbas is different.  Russia would abandon it without a second thought if it needed to divert forces elsewhere EXCEPT that doing so will make it look weak.  Therefore, Russia will not abandon the Donbas unless it has no other choice (i.e. military collapse).

So, any scenario where Ukrainian forces are liberating the pre-2022 Donbas and/or Crimea will mean the Russian military is no longer a cohesive force.  The only thing that would then stand in its way would be the locals.  And here is where I agree 100% with Haiduk.

The Donbas is spent as a military force on its own EVEN IF Russia maintained massive military support.  The DLPR are also economic basket cases and exist only because Russia keeps it subsidized.  There is no way they would either have the will or the means to continuing fighting if direct Russian support evaporated.  What they would likely do is stay militarily active in order to secure some concessions, such as some sort of limited political autonomy.  Whether Ukraine would grant it or not will likely be entirely dependent upon the circumstances at the time.  My point is the people who are still motivated to keep the war going are more likely to run to Russia than continue a futile struggle.  Ukraine has the military force to crush anybody who do continue to fight.

As for Crimea, the bulk of Crimeans supported the takeover by Russia because it literally stated that under its rule the roads would be paved with gold.  The exact opposite happened.  "Carpet baggers" (as we say in the US) came from all over Russia and joined with domestic Crimean mafia (which itself is a Russian enterprise) to rob Crimea blind.  They took over businesses, they took land, they shut down dissent, etc.  This has most certainly disaffected a big chunk of those who initially supported the Russian invasion.  I personally know someone who switched, but also know that his family is still split. 

In the event of Ukrainian forces moving into Crimea the most pro-Russian will leave because they either are Russian or they suspect they won't do so well under Ukrainian rule.  Of the population that remains, it could be split 50/50 between those who at least think Ukraine might treat them better and those who are prepared to not like the change.  But either way, Haiduk is almost certainly correct that none of the latter will raise up arms against Ukrainian forces in any significant way.

Again, this is all predicated on Russian military opposition melting away.  And that will only happen if things get substantially worse for Russia at some point.  Until then, any talk of taking back the pre-2022 Donbas and Crimea is fantasy.

Steve

Compounding this is that the RA not only needs to melt...it needs to stay melted if a military solution is going to work.  If Russia holds grudges or some political extremists uses this as a rallying point, we will be back at this again in a few years.  The odds of a total RA collapse without Russia itself collapsing are very low.  As to resistance...the bar is also extremely low for that these days.  One screw up by "liberating forces" and the situation could go very sideways quickly.

Maybe LNR/DPR roll over but a lot of their people died in this war and I am betting they also know how to hold a grudge.  It is a pipe dream to think the locals in these regions are simply going to shrug their shoulders, especially if Russia continues to make trouble and provide support.  Crimea is even worse, that one has bloody insurgency written all over it. Unless we are talking about ethnically cleansing the area and then we can say "so long" to western support.  We can bat it back and forth all day but I would bet money the UA is already planning for counter-insurgency operations in some areas.

The problem is there really is no other choice right now.  Ukraine has to keep pushing and we all hope there is some sort of off-ramp that pops up.  If Ukraine somehow manages to push Russia all the way back to 2014 borders then 1) the RA will likely regroup and start making trouble in short order because Russia "cannot lose this war" and there is no viable way to destroy its ability to wage war, or 2) Russia will fall apart completely and that has "worse" written all over it.  What we need is 3) Russia accepts defeat just enough, somehow holds it together, regime change and gives the West a window to throw a blanket over Ukraine.

And then as you note - fantasy.  If we are in an era of Denial primacy, then this war could take a very long time and get extremely expensive for all involved.  Western support will start to flag and the damn thing could wind up frozen.  We then lag on reconstruction investment because of risk.  We go back to 2014-2022 era of long conflict while both sides reload, but the backers of one side may have already moved on. 

[Haiduk]

Hmmm.... Next surprise at the end of Independense Day?

Just RUMINT - this VERY UNVERIFIED for now, but allegedly UKR troops already fight inside Novoprokopivka village and engaged Russians on northern ouskirt of Ilchenkove. Also as if Russian troops now pulling back behind "dragon teeth" line in Solodka Balka

The map of Poulet Volant likely for yesterday situation. Solodka Balka - to south from Ilchenkove. It's unseen on the map.

[BlackMoria]

Ah....is that a cracking sound I hear?  It would be fantastic for a break in the russian defences to get things really rolling.

[Seedorf81]

If the Ukrainian Army gets a breakthrough here, does it still have enough forces (close by) to exploit? 

[cesmonkey]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukrainian-pilots-receive-f-16-training-us-2023-08-24/

Quote

WASHINGTON, Aug 24 (Reuters) - The United States will begin flight training for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets in October, the Pentagon announced on Thursday.

The training will begin after the pilots receive English language training next month, Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Pat Ryder said. The flight training will take place in Arizona, Ryder added.

Several pilots and dozens of aircraft maintenance crew will take the training, Ryder added.

 

[fry30]

Very interesting stuff over the last few pages! 

[The_Capt]

20 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

If the Ukrainian Army gets a breakthrough here, does it still have enough forces (close by) to exploit? 

Next question - what is the RA ability to plug a hole right now.  My bet is not so good.  One thing we can all agree on right now is the UA needs to cut that corridor.

[TheVulture]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Next question - what is the RA ability to plug a hole right now.  My bet is not so good.  One thing we can all agree on right now is the UA needs to cut that corridor.

How far do they need to go before the corridor is effectively cut. My layman perspective is to wonder if getting to the H-30 highway (runs SE from Tokmak to Berdiansk) is enough - that would the railway connection and one of the two major roads that run across the land bridge here (assuming the railway is still meaningfully operational E-W here), and leave only the coastal highway, which would be within  roughly 30km of the front line. Within arty range, but I've no idea how effective artillery would be at that distance at impacting supply routes along the coast.

[dan/california]

31 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Next question - what is the RA ability to plug a hole right now.  My bet is not so good.  One thing we can all agree on right now is the UA needs to cut that corridor.

The best case scenario is the the Russians pull so many of the Russians very limited mobile forces towards a developing break thru towards at Tokomak, and then Ukraine breaks thru towards Mariupol as well. All of sudden every Russian in between has some very hard choices to make. And if I can figure that out, I am quite sure the AFU General Staff can. It is quite possible that Russia has just purged everyone on their side with that level of military understanding.

Edited August 24, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

56 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Ah....is that a cracking sound I hear?  It would be fantastic for a break in the russian defences to get things really rolling.

Not so fast. Our TGs write UKR command of advancing brigades concerned with such rapid withdrawal of Russians - this can be a trap with flank strikes and artillery hammering of narrow front from all sides, so UKR troops should to expand own flanks enough in order to not to be cut off and encirlced. I notice, in Novoprokopivka in front of our troops already not Territorial troops mobiks and tired units of 42nd MRD, but fresh VDV units - 108th regimemt and two battalions of 56th regiment of 7th air-assault division. This is serious opponent. 

Western partners say to us "Go, go, go! Winter is coming". I wish to our generals big patience and don't command to our troops in own turn "go, go, go!" like in June...

Edited August 24, 2023 by Haiduk