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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Russian TG VChK-OGPU claims Prigozhyn urgenty left Africa and arrived to Moscow, because he found out that the deputy chief  - chief of special activity department of GU GSh (former GRU)  Andrey Averyanov begins to implement the plan of substitution of PMC Wagner forces in Africa for "African Army Corps" in 20 000 men, which should be enlisted soon and start training. Prigozhyn tried to interfere these plans. Averyanov is known as author of such operations like Solsberry poisoning, explosions on Vrbetitse ammo dump in Czech Republic, poisining of Bulgarian weapon trader Yemelyan Gebriev. 

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Why the hell is Russia focusing on an Afrika Corps right now? Don’t they need soldiers? Is this a ruse to mobilize more men?

Even if best case (for Russia) the conflict is frozen and their economy can support the adventure, it’s not like there isn’t going to be epic Russian hunting and shenanigans by various foreign services in Africa.

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The symbolism is strong with this one. Exactly 2 month ago the wagner group started their rebellion/coup. So with russian fixation on dates I would assume along with videomaterial that cleary hints that this was ordered by the Putin/the Kremlin.

The reports state  that both Utkin and Prigoshin were in the plane and their bodies got identified  after the crash....

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Quote

 

https://www.unian.ua/war/u-krimu-urazheno-beregoviy-raketniy-protikorabelniy-kompleks-bastion-12368946.html

Coastal anti-ship missile complex "Bastion" - Andryushchenko was hit in Crimea

 

Radar stations were also damaged. There were 7 explosions in total.

 

AFU appears to have hit quite a it more than just the S-400.

Edit: a popcorn worthy day indeed!
 

 

Edited by dan/california
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One more of video with engaging of UKR RHIBs and Russian aircraft from the point of view from the boat

Filmed by fighters of "Artan" - volunteer special unit of GUR (Main Intelligence Directorate).

Russian aicraft shells the RHIB with gun and MANPAD launch at Russian jet. Some soldiers on the video speaks on unknown language and probably meaning Budanov surname.

 

Edited by Haiduk
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31 minutes ago, Pete Wenman said:

 

image.png

Also Chekalov, chief of Wagner "counterintelligence". Too many eggs in one basket; if they all travelled together, Prig must have been very sure of himself and his guarantees. Curious if his recent presence at conference with Africans wasn't designed specifically to lure him into more confidence.

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And I was just commenting a few days ago how Wagner was in an odd space,  geopolitically. 

Well, this wraps that up nicely. 

Unfortunately as mentioned by others,  this now locks in Putin /MoD as In Charge. Shakiness in the regime will probably fade and any second attempt at a rebellion will need another avenue and not a military one. 

The way is shut. It was made by those who are Dead, and the Dead keep it, until the time comes. The way is shut.

This killing now redirects social/military pressure out of the realm of armed rebellion and possibly into political resistance...

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2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russian-warlord-who-defied-putin-was-on-passenger-list-of-jet-that-crashed-officials-1.6531330

Hitting mainstream.  If Prig just got slagged...well he should have not been surprised in the least on the way down.  Mafia rules - when you take a shot at the boss, do not miss.

No, if you take a shot at the boss then take the train...

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6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

And I was just commenting a few days ago how Wagner was in an odd space,  geopolitically. 

Well, this wraps that up nicely. 

Unfortunately as mentioned by others,  this now locks in Putin /MoD as In Charge. Shakiness in the regime will probably fade and any second attempt at a rebellion will need another avenue and not a military one. 

The way is shut. It was made by those who are Dead, and the Dead keep it, until the time comes. The way is shut.

This killing now redirects social/military pressure out of the realm of armed rebellion and possibly into political resistance...

Not sure I agree with this one. This tells the people doing the fighting they are stuck with the same incompetent crooks as commanders forever more. Given the amount of pressure the Ukrainians are piling on the could be some unpredictable reactions by front line units. The surrender, or sudden retreat of even a couple of units could move the southern front in a major way.

Edited by dan/california
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7 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Hmm. 

Maybe Putin will take this as the final step before Mobilization, now that the most overt opposition is a smoking hole in western Russia. 

Another mobilization would tell the world that Ukraine is winning the war.   To me it would be a positive sign although nobody wants to see more Russians at the front.   Putin won't lose Crimea without another call up or two.   Good thing Ukraine has lots of cluster munitions to use now.   By the way I've read that Russians are using wood to cover their trenches because of these cluster munitions.   I thought those things were also good against armored vehicles?  Can wood really do anything for protection?   

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10 minutes ago, Jr Buck Private said:

Another mobilization would tell the world that Ukraine is winning the war.   To me it would be a positive sign although nobody wants to see more Russians at the front.   Putin won't lose Crimea without another call up or two.   Good thing Ukraine has lots of cluster munitions to use now.   By the way I've read that Russians are using wood to cover their trenches because of these cluster munitions.   I thought those things were also good against armored vehicles?  Can wood really do anything for protection?   

Maybe it's just meant to make battle damage assessment harder: doesn't help the mobiks, but does make it harder to count how many are left,  which might make the Ukrainians more cautious in the advance. 

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1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

And I was just commenting a few days ago how Wagner was in an odd space,  geopolitically. 

Well, this wraps that up nicely. 

Unfortunately as mentioned by others,  this now locks in Putin /MoD as In Charge. Shakiness in the regime will probably fade and any second attempt at a rebellion will need another avenue and not a military one. 

The way is shut. It was made by those who are Dead, and the Dead keep it, until the time comes. The way is shut.

This killing now redirects social/military pressure out of the realm of armed rebellion and possibly into political resistance...

There are plenty of contingencies in which it could happen again. If Putin is incapacitated in any way, if there are any severe military setbacks, keep an eye on the Rosgvardia especially. 

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28 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There are plenty of contingencies in which it could happen again. If Putin is incapacitated in any way, if there are any severe military setbacks, keep an eye on the Rosgvardia especially. 

Good point,  but I meant more that the fighting units at the front have a data point -  rebellion will be defeated and the leaders killed, even if eventually. 

If Putin is incapacitated then all avenues to leadership change are open,  but while he is compes mentes then military rebellion will need a much higher threshold for people to sign on. The uniqueness of Prigozhin was that he came to rebellion with a ready made group of veteran loyalists, something I noted several times was very dangerous for Putin to allow to exist, and events bore it out. 

But there is no military equivalent anymore,  except in theory the Kadyrovites -  but Putin can provide an infinite supply of goats,  so.. 

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