How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Stockpile of TM-62 AT-mines was hit with a grenade from the drone. Huge shockwave likely damaged Russian light armor in several meters from the mines dump.

 

[Haiduk]

OMG... Again these "anonimous strategists" with own brilliant advices and nagging. This is fifth or more article in US main medias for a week or more about "how Ukraine does everything wrong and why their offensive will fail". I wonder who has paid this campaign?

 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

The main goal of the counteroffensive is to cut off Russian supply lines in southern Ukraine by severing the so-called land bridge between Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula. But instead of focusing on that, Ukrainian commanders have divided troops and firepower roughly equally between the east and the south, the U.S. officials said.

As a result, more Ukrainian forces are near Bakhmut and other cities in the east than are near Melitopol and Zaporizhzhia in the south, both far more strategically significant fronts, officials say.

American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol, Kyiv’s top priority, and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process. [thank you, fu...g bastards! ]

Only with a change of tactics and a dramatic move can the tempo of the counteroffensive change, said one U.S. official, who like the other half a dozen Western officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Edited August 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

OMG... Again these "anonimous strategists" with own brilliant advices and nagging. This is fifth or more article in US main medias about "how Ukraine does everything wrong and why their offensive will fail". I wonder who has paid this campaign?

 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

The main goal of the counteroffensive is to cut off Russian supply lines in southern Ukraine by severing the so-called land bridge between Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula. But instead of focusing on that, Ukrainian commanders have divided troops and firepower roughly equally between the east and the south, the U.S. officials said.

As a result, more Ukrainian forces are near Bakhmut and other cities in the east than are near Melitopol and Zaporizhzhia in the south, both far more strategically significant fronts, officials say.

American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol, Kyiv’s top priority, and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process.

Only with a change of tactics and a dramatic move can the tempo of the counteroffensive change, said one U.S. official, who like the other half a dozen Western officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

The Ukrainian response to all of this "advice" should consist of one sentence. "The U.S. Air Force is welcome to show up any time." 

[billbindc]

47 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

OMG... Again these "anonimous strategists" with own brilliant advices and nagging. This is fifth or more article in US main medias for a week or more about "how Ukraine does everything wrong and why their offensive will fail". I wonder who has paid this campaign?

 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

The main goal of the counteroffensive is to cut off Russian supply lines in southern Ukraine by severing the so-called land bridge between Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula. But instead of focusing on that, Ukrainian commanders have divided troops and firepower roughly equally between the east and the south, the U.S. officials said.

As a result, more Ukrainian forces are near Bakhmut and other cities in the east than are near Melitopol and Zaporizhzhia in the south, both far more strategically significant fronts, officials say.

American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol, Kyiv’s top priority, and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process. [thank you, fu...g bastards! ]

Only with a change of tactics and a dramatic move can the tempo of the counteroffensive change, said one U.S. official, who like the other half a dozen Western officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

While surely irritating, this sort of squabbling and second guessing is both entirely normal in a large cooperative military effort and likely has little effect on the outcome. There are a lot of interests, a lot of money and a lot of people involved. It is only to be expected that some take their gripes to the media. 

And the actual people in power weigh in: 

 

Edited August 22, 2023 by billbindc

[pepeoo7]

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[quakerparrot67]

17 hours ago, Jorge MC said:

 

 yeah..... macgreggor , with a link to michael savage-  now  that's a real indication of truth, quality, and sanity.    my first use of the ignore button, ever. cool

 

cheers,

rob

[Kraft]

New? Uboat Drone Marichka

Quote

According to the authors , the video shows the first footage of testing the Ukrainian underwater drone "Marichka"

The drone is designed to attack warships, boats, submarines (?), coastal fortifications and bridge supports

Length - 6 m, width - 1 m

Range - 1000 km

The price is UAH 16 million

It has the ability to transport cargo of military or civilian purpose instead of explosives, as well as perform a reconnaissance function

https://t.me/c/1314433227/3360

Not sure why this is made public. Hopefully it performs like a little U-47.

Edited August 22, 2023 by Kraft

[Teufel]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Even suggesting Russia compromise on what it wants is akin to asking it to surrender in its mind.  Someone who views the act of negotiation as defeat can not be reasoned with.

Steve

Spot on! I sound like a parrot but once again; Putin and those in high places have been criminals all their lives. They don’t know any other system or way of life. These people grow up in society where there is no law, no respect for human life, and frankly no future other than hustling to survive.

If you do it well in Russia you get no punished for committing crime but rather praise and admiration as successful businessman. Expecting people to understand or less care about rational thinking and collaboration/negotiation with such social norms? Are you kidding me?!

If anybody missed the point before, Russians (and most other East Europeans, including Moi), even outside of war only understand force. Trying to negotiate is perceived as sign of weakness and invites only a big target on your back.

Let me add before any of my fellow Easterns take offense by bunching us with Russians. There is no racial bigotry here, we do not discriminate on basis of race - no stereotypes, we are all equally useless when it comes down to civilized behavior. Understand negotiations we do but only if the counterpart got much bigger stick than our own.

Can’t understand the logic behind any attempts to talk to Russians before giving them proper beating.

Edited August 22, 2023 by Teufel

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

While surely irritating, this sort of squabbling and second guessing is both entirely normal in a large cooperative military effort and likely has little effect on the outcome. There are a lot of interests, a lot of money and a lot of people involved. It is only to be expected that some take their gripes to the media. 

And the actual people in power weigh in: 

 

Agreed. I have to say i must be out of touch though, because I thought the strategy HAS been to cut the landbridge. could these remarks somehow be several weeks out of date? Although the allocation of units themselves could reasonably be a matter of contention:

Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive has struggled to break through entrenched Russian defenses in large part because it has too many troops, including some of its best combat units, in the wrong places, according to several American officials.

Ukrainian commanders have divided their troops roughly equally between the east and the south rather than centering firepower to sever the so-called land bridge between Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula — the stated goal of the offensive.

In a video teleconference this month, top Western military officials urged Ukraine’s most senior military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, to focus on one main front. According to two officials briefed on the call, General Zaluzhnyi agreed. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war.html AHHH, Haiduck beat me to the quote. I’m just catching up chronologically.

Edited August 22, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Vet 0369]

On 8/21/2023 at 3:58 PM, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Yeah, that shot looks like it went to the left of the leading tank. Somewhat inconsiderate if the lead driver had the time to dismount his stricken tank.

The real question is: Where did the previous shot (0:42) from the same offender go? I see no impact in the back of the lead tank, but I struggle to think where else it could have gone. Perhaps over? Regardless, the gunner in that rear tank is a liability.

Either that or he’s a Ukrainian sympathizer. Probably figured that since the column had been creamed, it was “worth a shot” (see what I did there) to get rid of someone.

[Splinty]

22 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Either that or he’s a Ukrainian sympathizer. Probably figured that since the column had been creamed, it was “worth a shot” (see what I did there) to get rid of someone.

Or the Lieutenant was in the tank he shot at. Nothing like a good fragging.

[NamEndedAllen]

15 hours ago, JonS said:

Roosevelt directed his unconditional surrender demand at all three Axis powers in Jan '43, then promptly ignored it 9 months later when Italy surrendered, then it was ignored again 2 years after that when Japan surrendered. Unconditional surrender was never a pristine rose that was utterly inviolate.

I understand that Japan did formally surrender unconditionally, aboard the USS Missouri on September 2, 1945.

” the emperor, who ordered the unconditional surrender of Japan’s armed forces.” https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/13/vj-day-the-dangerous-illusion-of-japans-unconditional-surrender/

Although notice of unconditional surrender was given on August 10, the day after Nagasaki was destroyed. Japan agreed to the Potsdam Conference terms for unconditional surrender. https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/japan-accepts-potsdam-terms-agrees-to-unconditional-surrender

Edited August 22, 2023 by NamEndedAllen
Spelling!

[Vet 0369]

On 8/21/2023 at 7:44 PM, Fenris said:

Example of caustic relations back home - something else to sap morale.

 

Boy, does that sound really familiar! Just like when we came home to the States from Fleet Marine Force, Western Pacific in the 1960s and 1970s. The “good youth, led by Jane Fonda” of L.A. and San Francisco would spit on us and call us “Baby Killers.”

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Agreed. I have to say i must be out of touch though, because I thought the strategy HAS been to cut the landbridge. could these remarks somehow be several weeks out of date? Although the allocation of units themselves could reasonably be a matter of contention:

Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive has struggled to break through entrenched Russian defenses in large part because it has too many troops, including some of its best combat units, in the wrong places, according to several American officials.

Ukrainian commanders have divided their troops roughly equally between the east and the south rather than centering firepower to sever the so-called land bridge between Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula — the stated goal of the offensive.

In a video teleconference this month, top Western military officials urged Ukraine’s most senior military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, to focus on one main front. According to two officials briefed on the call, General Zaluzhnyi agreed. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war.html AHHH, Haiduck beat me to the quote. I’m just catching up chronologically.

I would flat out ignore virtually every anonymous quote you are hearing on this topic. Everything that is being leaked is driven by agendas that cannot be assessed and isolated from any real context. We quite literally don't know who is saying what, why, when or how. It could be Milley talking in the Oval or some Colonel sitting at the Rosslyn Starbucks. We will find out several years from now.

[Vet 0369]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

.

Back to Billbindc's point about perception being more important than reality, it's absolutely true.  Russia believes it has the absolute right to do whatever it wants to do and anybody that so much as questions that is perceived as a threat.  Exhibit A is NATO because it exists explicitly to prevent Russia from militarily expanding its borders.  Since Russia believes expansion is necessary to thrive, in this mentality NATO is oppressing Russia's real potential.  Ergo, in Russia's eyes NATO is an existential threat.

I would advance my “opinion” that in each individual viewpoint, the individual’s perception is the ONLY REALITY for that individual.

[chuckdyke]

12 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

the individual’s perception is the ONLY REALITY for that individual.

Not really he will look for the opinion of others. I really know the difference between subjective reality and objective reality. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

"Russian command for the sake of saving lives of our soildiers was forces to withdraw our trops from several positions near Verbove"

This is an interesting development.  The left flank of Robotyne may be widening.  Looking at a map this could put Ukraine in a position of cutting the road between Tokmak and Polohy.  It also looks like it puts them decidedly behind Russia's first line of defenses.

Indeed, ISW has quite a bit to say about the current state of affairs and even aimed some criticism towards the NYT article (and others) that are second guessing Ukraine's strategy:

Quote

Ukrainian offensive operations in other sectors of the front remain important because they can fix Russian units in place and prevent further lateral reinforcements. Criticisms of continued Ukrainian efforts in other sectors and calls for Ukraine to concentrate all available reserves on a single axis are thus problematic.  Ukrainian offensive operations around Bakhmut have fixed elements of multiple Russian airborne divisions and separate brigades in that area, as ISW has previously noted, rendering them likely unavailable to stiffen Russian resistance in the south.[9]  Ukrainian offensive operations south of Velyka Novosilka proceeding in parallel with operations toward Melitopol present Russian defenders with multiple dilemmas and the need to choose which axis to reinforce. Sound campaign design requires balancing between weighting a decisive main effort and avoiding allowing the enemy to concentrate all reserves on stopping a single obvious thrust.

This is inline with discussions had here.  Bakhmut is too important for Russia to give up easily, so Ukraine is smart to keep pushing there to tie up Russian resources.  This is especially smart because the commitment of new forces there is apparently still minimal.

ISW also gave us some more confirmation that Russia is fighting so hard for its 1st line of defenses because its 2nd line isn't as strong.  More importantly, there's few troops to shore up the 1st line and there's scant information about regular units manning the 2nd line.  Some of the positively ID'd units are those that have been actively engaged in combat for several months without rotation, so their fighting strength is likely significantly degraded.

Quote

The Ukrainian advance in the Robotyne area brings Ukrainian forces closer to launching operations against second lines of defense that may be relatively weaker than the first Russian defensive line in the area. ISW has not observed any new Russian formations or units arrive in western Zaporizhia Oblast beyond the lateral transfer of the elements of the 7th VDV Division and the arrival of “Akhmat-Yug" Battalion elements in August.[10] Elements of the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (19th Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) previously operating near Nesteryanka (12km northwest of Robotyne) have reportedly arrived in the immediate vicinity of Robotyne, likely to reinforce failing Russian defenses in the area.[11] Russian forces deployed to the wider western Zaporizhia Oblast operational direction have been defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives since the start of the counteroffensive without rotation.[12] Russian forces do not appear to have uncommitted regular units in Zaporizhia Oblast. All elements of the Russian grouping in Zaporizhia Oblast that ISW observed in the area in the months leading up to the counteroffensive have since been engaged in defensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast or in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.[13] ISW has since observed additional Russian elements that were likely already in the area only after they started defending against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, however, and it remains possible that some yet unobserved and uncommitted elements may occupy positions at secondary lines of defense.[14]

The lack of observed Russian formations and units at secondary lines of defense in western Zaporizhia Oblast may suggest that elements of units and formations already engaged in fighting may occupy these positions. Russian tactical reporting about counterattacks in the Robotyne area suggests that the 22nd and 45th Spetsnaz Brigades occupy positions behind the first line of defense and possibly at the second.[15] Elements of the 22nd and 45th Spetsnaz Brigades appear to be responsible for launching counterattacks against significant Ukrainian advances in the area and therefore are likely degraded.[16] The likely lack of Russian operational reserves, together with the limited lateral transfers to western Zaporizhia Oblast and observed separate uncommitted units at second lines of defense, suggests that second lines of Russian defense may be significantly less heavily defended. The Russian formations and units currently occupying secondary lines of defense are largely unknown at this time, however, and ISW offers this assessment with low confidence.

 

Steve

[cesmonkey]

 

[Battlefront.com]

More tea leaves about the state of internal politics within Russia from ISW.  Basically, some indications that Russia is prepared to toss out election results before the election is held because their United Russia candidate is predicted to lose.  Interestingly, the candidate is a Ukraine war vet and United Russia touted is war experience heavily in the campaign.  There is some indications, apparently, that this is viewed negatively by voters:

Quote

The Kremlin is reportedly planning to cancel gubernatorial elections in the Republic of Khakassia in order to prevent a Russian veteran’s loss and ensure a United Russia victory, likely demonstrating the Kremlin’s concern over domestic support for the war and the fragility of its veneer of electoral legitimacy. Russian opposition media outlet Meduza reported on August 21 that the United Russia candidate in the gubernatorial race in the Republic of Khakassia, State Duma deputy and veteran of the war in Ukraine Sergei Sokol, is likely to lose to incumbent Valentin Konovalov of the Communist Party.[39] Kremlin-backed United Russia leadership reportedly realized that primarily promoting Sokol as a veteran of the war in Ukraine was causing voters to question his qualifications to head a regional government and is reportedly now presenting Sokol as an “effective lobbyist” who will be able to garner more support for Khakassia from the federal government. Meduza reported that the Kremlin, in preparation for Sokol’s loss, is planning to cancel the election citing “allegations of falsifications.”[40] The Central Election Commission has already criticized the local election commission for misusing administrative resources in July.[41] The Kremlin will reportedly give Sokol a “compensatory post” in the regional or federal government and conduct new elections with a new United Russia candidate.[42] The Kremlin will reportedly only cancel the elections if the results are close; if Konovalev wins by a significant margin, the Kremlin, according to a Meduza source close to the Presidential Administration, may recognize the results “in order not to inflame the situation.”[43] ISW previously reported that United Russia electoral campaigns are not highlighting the war in Ukraine out of concerns about voter support for the war.[44] ISW also previously reported that the Kremlin likely fears its electoral legitimacy in upcoming elections may weaken, possibly presenting United Russia with a greater need to falsify and manipulate election results.[45]

Steve

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW also gave us some more confirmation that Russia is fighting so hard for its 1st line of defenses because its 2nd line isn't as strong.  More importantly, there's few troops to shore up the 1st line and there's scant information about regular units manning the 2nd line.

but OMG there's ditches!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   We are doomed!!!!!!!!!!!!

But seriously, this has been a pet peeve of mine for a while.  Maps showing 'defense lines', which may be defense lines and also might just be...... ditches.  Now we are starting to see evidence they are more ditch than defense w RU burning up its strength in front of these, uh, ditches.

[Carolus]

Another hit in Moscow. When these drone attacks started I was amazed how they managed to take out precise office locations. 

There are also rumors of explosions in two other Russian towns and in Sevastopol. Car traffic on the Kerch Bridge was temporarily suspended.

Even though the Ukrainian attacks are small in size and number, this up and down without knowing when something will hit must also be stress (or dare I say "friction") for the Russian system. 

And with meaningful targets, the impact is actually bigger than Russia flattening another residential block in Ukraine with a ballistic missile. As was discussed here, the latter is purely motivated by apeish sadism, but does not affect Ukrainian military capabilities.

Edited August 23, 2023 by Carolus
Additions

[Carolus]

A text on Elon Musk, Starlink connectivity problems, and his talks with the Pentagon and Kremlin. 

It is cyberpunk dystopia: private companies can influence wars on the globe.

Full text here:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/08/28/elon-musks-shadow-rule

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

Western Crimea, Tarkhankut cape. Olenivka (rus. Yelenovka). No information to this time what's happened.

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian 2S4 heavy SP-mortar was destroyed by FPV drone in Bakhmut