How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[paxromana]

2 hours ago, Jorge MC said:

this war is clearer  will end with the terms that Russia dictates.

Only in Putin's Ruzzian Cloud Cuckoo Land ... 

[Anon052]

A month ago there was  heavy fighting at the Antonovsky Bridgehead.  Since then I  didn't hear any news from there. I am wondering  what  happend there. Am  I correct to assume no news means that the ukrainians retreated?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Anon052 said:

A month ago there was  heavy fighting at the Antonovsky Bridgehead.  Since then I  didn't hear any news from there. I am wondering  what  happend there. Am  I correct to assume no news means that the ukrainians retreated?

No. The Russians have stopped the UKR bridgehead from expanding, but the UKR have stayed on the other side of the Dnieper

[Tenses]

There were a number of situations, where the wording pointed to some kind of breakthrough but in fact it was just a temporary gain. For Robotyne we can read a month back that it was reached and trenches were cleared but still yesterday another photo from the norther outskirts of it, showing that as some new gain.

Generally it is increasingly hard to not only push forward but also to maintain captured positions so everything is going back and forth with artillery doing most of the work, when new enemy positions are identified during subsequent probes. There is also no indication that russians are getting weaker and I worry that this kind of grind will last up to the sea of Azov itself, which would take good part of next year to reach, if no major breakthrough will happen.

From the good side it looks like efficiency of the probes have increased and UAF can utilize smaller forces to achieve enemy detection and following destruction with artillery. Counter battery is also working like a charm for longer than a month now. Artillery clash is THE most important aspect in this war and it has clearly turned in Ukraine favor for good. Slowly starting Western arms production machine is also promising as it is very slow to start but can grow very large and dwarf anything, what ruzzians can produce/obtain.

[Offshoot]

Something going on at the Kerch bridge again, but the Russians are  claiming two missiles shot down.

Quote

Crimean bridge now. It’s not entirely clear if it is the explosions or another smoke screen exercise which take place there from time to time.

/2. The movement of vehicles on the Crimean bridge is temporarily blocked. - Russian sources.
It was also reported about the activity of Russian air defense in Kerch

/3. The Russian-appointed Crimean authorities claim that two missiles were shot down by air defense forces in the area of the Kerch Strait. According to them, the Crimean Bridge is not damaged.

 

 

[Haiduk]

On 8/11/2023 at 12:51 PM, Ts4EVER said:

Not the kind of photos you want for propaganda, considering how easy it is to associate them with child soldiers.

If somebody wants to search black cat in dark room, especially if realy no cat in this room, this is his right. For Eastern European countries, military aspect in their cultures always played important role in upbringing. I think, not a last role in "phenomenon" of fierce Ukrainian resistance played "military culture" memory with an attitude "I have an obligation to be defender of my land", different youth scout and paramilitary organisations, upbringing low-level leaders. Alas, contemporary western culture with it's negative aspects like "life for enjoying and consumption", globalization moods "Nations don't exist, I'm citizen of Universe", leftism, libertarianism etc significantly undermined nation readiness to fight. Now in Ukrainian society more and more we are hearing voices (and this is not only Russian PsyOps): "Why I have to go at the war! Only professionals must to go! I was born to enjoy a life, not to die on minefields! They havn't a right to force me to fight! This is violation of my human rights! If Russians come I will defend my family - we just relocate them to other country, but you closed borders for men, violating my basic human rights to choose a safe place for life!"

When about week ago was published a photos of daughter of marine, fallen in 2020 - three years ago, where she was 10 y.o with a portray of his father and today's photo, where she is 13 y.o with sniper rifle as a cadete of military college, huge number of "snowflakes" and "human right defenders" started to faint "OMG! Little girl with a weapon! It's unacceptable!" Maybe this is a reason why in EU so low level of people, who ready to fight with a wepon for their countries. If education system try to upbrings kids as "snowflakes in rose unicorn kingdom", keeping them from "unwanted stresses, violence, militarism, hard situations" etc. then even usual mountain trip with a tent without a bed and toilet turned out for many of them in dangerous challenge, not speaking of to readiness to engage with a war reality. 

So, I'm for "golden mean clever militarism" in youth upbringing. This is a question of nation health and future stability of countries.
https://brilliantmaps.com/europe-fight-war/

  

Edited August 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Hapless]

Haven't seen one of these for a while. What I'm finding more interesting is the way the Ukrainians are hounding it (assuming that it's the same vehicle being hit, then recovered).

This really speaks to FPV drones as munitions, a 'permissive drone environment' (ie. no obvious countermeasures) and an ISR capability that allows tracking of individual vehicles. I'd love to know the strike mechanics: is there a taxi-rank of FPV drones assigned to an ISR drone waiting for targets or do they launch them individually? Does a single team operate both, or are there separate hunter and killer teams that need to co-locate?

[alison]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

So, I'm for "golden mean clever militarism" in youth upbringing. This is a question of nation health and future stability of countries.
https://brilliantmaps.com/europe-fight-war/

  

This is a fascinating map and a really interesting topic, although perhaps not deeply on-topic for this thread. One thing I would caution is to read too much into the response of people in EU countries saying that they would not fight for their country. While it is true that Europeans might not be inclined to fight for their country specifically, I think that is because many people in the EU associate nationalism with centuries of bloodshed - endless wars and imperialist brutality. This was violence that largely came to an end with the founding of the EU. I think perhaps rephrasing the question to ask if people would fight for "European values" or to preserve freedom and democracy, they would be much more inclined to say yes.

Speaking for myself, as a "citizen of the universe" whose roots are tangled across several European countries plus at least one former colony on the opposite site of the world, I don't think there is any one country in particular for which I would be willing to fight. But you can bet your *** that if democracy is threatened in the place where I live (currently Taiwan, but could just as easily be Germany or the Netherlands or somewhere else), I will support every effort to defend it, and even actively contribute if my skills would be of use. I suspect many other people with similar backgrounds to me feel the same.

[Ts4EVER]

If anything, history has shown that excessive militarism is NOT conducive to peace, and that is the basic assumption most European countries operate under.

[Bulletpoint]

56 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

If somebody wants to search black cat in dark room, especially if realy no cat in this room, this is his right. For Eastern European countries, military aspect in their cultures always played important role in upbringing. I think, not a last role in "phenomenon" of fierce Ukrainian resistance played "military culture" memory with an attitude "I have an obligation to be defender of my land", different youth scout and paramilitary organisations, upbringing low-level leaders. Alas, contemporary western culture with it's negative aspects like "life for enjoying and consumption", globalization moods "Nations don't exists, I'm citizen of Universe", leftism, libertarianism etc significantly undermined nation readiness to fight. Now in Ukrainian society more and more we are hearing voices (and this is not only Russian PsyOps): "Why I have to go at the war! Only professionals must to go! I was born to enjoy a life, not to die on minefields! They havn't a right to force me to fight! This is violation of my human rights! If Russians come I will defend my family - we just relocate them to other country, but you closed borders for men, violating my basic human rights to choose a safe place for life!"

When about week ago was published a photos of daughter of marine, fallen in 2020 - three years ago, where she was 10 y.o with a portray of his father and today's photo, where she is 13 y.o with sniper rifle as a cadete of military college, huge number of "snowflakes" and "human right defenders" started to faint "OMG! Little girl with a weapon! It's unacceptable!" Maybe this is a reason why in EU so low level of people, who ready to fight with a wepon for their countries. If education system try to upbrings kids as "snowflakes in rose unicorn kingdom", keeping them from "unwanted stresses, violence, militarism, hard situations" etc. then even usual mountain trip with a tent without a bed and toilet turned out for many of them in dangerous challenge, not speaking of to readiness to engage with a war reality. 

So, I'm for "golden mean clever militarism" in youth upbringing. This is a question of nation health and future stability of countries.
https://brilliantmaps.com/europe-fight-war/

  

I think the reason is not "leftist education" but that Western European countries took very different lessons from the previous wars.

Ukraine (and Russia) suffered horribly during WW2, but after the war, this was turned into a hero story and a source for national pride. Same with the USA. Fighting the good fight and winning is a lot different from being the bad guys - and losing.

Also, I think a lot depends on what exact question was asked in the survey. "Would you fight to defend your own country against an all out invasion by Russia" is a lot different from "Would you be interested in signing a contract to go to Iraq or Afghanistan".

During the recent decades, this is what many young people in the West thought about when they heard the word "war": Going far away to fight for reasons you don't really understand.

[Ts4EVER]

4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

During the recent decades, this is what many young people in the West thought about when they heard the word "war": Going far away to fight for reasons you don't really understand.

Oh, they understood the reasons all right: Making rich people richer.

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

No. The Russians have stopped the UKR bridgehead from expanding, but the UKR have stayed on the other side of the Dnieper

I would rather say "Russians tired to lost own vehicles and personnel, trying to attack a bridgehead along the road - single possible place for vehicles movement". So now they limited themeselves by artilelry and bomb strikes

Edited August 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Oh, they understood the reasons all right: Making rich people richer.

I didn't want to start going over all the different interpretations of the wars in the Middle East, especially since I know some people here on these forums have been actively fighting there.

But yes, there are many different ways of looking at those wars, and that was my point - when the survey asked "Would you be willing to fight for your country", then Ukrainians and people in Western Europe will think of very different ways of fighting for their country.

[Kraft]

21 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Oh, they understood the reasons all right: Making rich people richer.

Not sure how building and protecting schools in Afghanistan made anyone richer but Im happy for 'em.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

is there a taxi-rank of FPV drones assigned to an ISR drone waiting for targets or do they launch them individually? Does a single team operate both, or are there separate hunter and killer teams that need to co-locate?

Both ways, depending on drone unit. Attack drones can be used not only be special drone teams or "shtat" UCAV companies in brigades, but even usual infantry platoon, where smart guys learned how to care with Mavics with grenade dropping system or with race drones with RPG projectile and then ordered these drones from fundrising. I can say maybe 80-90 % of such drones are "non-shtat" weapon, supplying through fundrising, charity funds, civil volunteers, "Army of drones"/NAFO/United24 initiatives.  

Edited August 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Astrophel]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

If somebody wants to search black cat in dark room, especially if realy no cat in this room, this is his right. For Eastern European countries, military aspect in their cultures always played important role in upbringing. I think, not a last role in "phenomenon" of fierce Ukrainian resistance played "military culture" memory with an attitude "I have an obligation to be defender of my land", different youth scout and paramilitary organisations, upbringing low-level leaders. Alas, contemporary western culture with it's negative aspects like "life for enjoying and consumption", globalization moods "Nations don't exist, I'm citizen of Universe", leftism, libertarianism etc significantly undermined nation readiness to fight. Now in Ukrainian society more and more we are hearing voices (and this is not only Russian PsyOps): "Why I have to go at the war! Only professionals must to go! I was born to enjoy a life, not to die on minefields! They havn't a right to force me to fight! This is violation of my human rights! If Russians come I will defend my family - we just relocate them to other country, but you closed borders for men, violating my basic human rights to choose a safe place for life!"

When about week ago was published a photos of daughter of marine, fallen in 2020 - three years ago, where she was 10 y.o with a portray of his father and today's photo, where she is 13 y.o with sniper rifle as a cadete of military college, huge number of "snowflakes" and "human right defenders" started to faint "OMG! Little girl with a weapon! It's unacceptable!" Maybe this is a reason why in EU so low level of people, who ready to fight with a wepon for their countries. If education system try to upbrings kids as "snowflakes in rose unicorn kingdom", keeping them from "unwanted stresses, violence, militarism, hard situations" etc. then even usual mountain trip with a tent without a bed and toilet turned out for many of them in dangerous challenge, not speaking of to readiness to engage with a war reality. 

So, I'm for "golden mean clever militarism" in youth upbringing. This is a question of nation health and future stability of countries.
https://brilliantmaps.com/europe-fight-war/

  

Very interesting chart, not least because Turkey seems to be the most inclined to fight for nationalist reasons.  However, the willingness to fight for core values cannot be assessed by framing the question in nationalist terms.  

Were you to ask a Dutch person whether they are willing to fight to prevent russians setting up torture chambers in their neighbourhood or having rape fests then I think you would see a different reaction.  And yes we think war is the business of professionals not of "mobiks".

Somewhat reassuring is that so many russians are NOT prepared to fight for their nation.  At the end of the day the russian people have to turn away from genocidal imperialist warfare on behalf of the nation and it seems there might be some fertile ground.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Astrophel

[Aragorn2002]

8 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

Very interesting chart, not least because Turkey seems to be the most inclined to fight for nationalist reasons.  However, the willingness to fight for core values cannot be assessed by framing the question in nationalist terms.  

Were you to ask a Dutch person whether they are willing to fight to prevent russians setting up torture chambers in their neighbourhood or having rape fests then I think you would see a different reaction.  And yes we think war is the business of professionals not of "mobiks".

Somewhat reassuring is that so many russians are NOT prepared to fight for their nation.  At the end of the day the russian people have to turn away from genocidal imperialist warfare on behalf of the nation and it seems there might be some fertile ground.

I agree. I don't think this map is telling us much about the willingness to defend the freedom of a country, when under attack.

[buena]

15 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Not sure how building and protecting schools in Afghanistan made anyone richer but Im happy for 'em.

Easy if you are property developer with the right contacts and lobby power in Washington

[Ts4EVER]

3 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Not sure how building and protecting schools in Afghanistan made anyone richer but Im happy for 'em.

This is offtopic, but a few things:

The main reason for the invasion was hunting terrorists. The whole "democracy" thing was more of a propaganda slogan. It should be noted that there wasn't a single election in Afghanistan without massive manipulation. The Mullahs remained largely in power and were able to forbid newspaper if they didn't conform to islamic ideology. Warlords and criminals were put into high office in the government. Not that this government had much power outside of Kabul, where much of the "aid money" directly went to various warlords. This kind of corruption delegitimized democracy in Afghanistan completely.

BTW according to Human Rights watch only a third of girls actually went to school during the occupation. The USA alone put 1 billion into the country, although only 2% of that actually went to the afghan population, not the US Army, rich Afghans abroad or warlords.

[Haiduk]

24 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

Very interesting chart, not least because Turkey seems to be the most inclined to fight for nationalist reasons.  However, the willingness to fight for core values cannot be assessed by framing the question in nationalist terms.  

Were you to ask a Dutch person whether they are willing to fight to prevent russians setting up torture chambers in their neighbourhood or having rape fests then I think you would see a different reaction.  And yes we think war is the business of professionals not of "mobiks".

Somewhat reassuring is that so many russians are NOT prepared to fight for their nation.  At the end of the day the russian people have to turn away from genocidal imperialist warfare on behalf of the nation and it seems there might be some fertile ground.

The chief of my partner company has been travelling to Netherland each two months to his wife (she is Netherland citizen) and told me how he had a conversation on this theme with some citizens of Breda. On the question "if Russia invaded Netherland, what would you do?", most of them answered either "maybe nothing" or "we would be escape" 

"Small equipped" professional armies of many EU countries are good for peacmaking operations or for low-intensity border conflicts, not for full-scale war. General Zaluzhnyi has good quote: "In case of full-scale invasion, it's repelled initially by professionals, but then teachers and engineers continuing". If European NATO hopes only on own combined small professioanal armies and air superiority in case of war with Russia (or China) I have bad news for them. So I understand "great arming" of Poland an Baltic states. 

 

Edited August 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Astrophel]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The chief of my partner company has been travelling to Netherland each two months to his wife (she is Netherland citizen) and told me how he had a conversation on this theme with some citizens of Breda. On the question "if Russia invaded Netherland, what would you do?", most of them answered either "maybe nothing" or "we would be escape" 

"Small equipped" professional armies of many EU countries are good for peacmaking operations or for low-intensity border conflicts, not for full-scale war. General Zaluzhnyi has good quote: "In case of full-scale invasion, it's repelled initially by professionals, but then teachers and engineers continuing". If European NATO hopes only on own combined small professioanal armies and air superiority in case of war with Russia (or China) I have bad news for them. 

 

@Haiduk.

Your reactions from Breda I can just about imagine later in the evening after lots of drinks and nobody taking the issue too seriously.  The border is close and unguarded.  With our current knowledge of russian behaviour we are resolute, and support Ukraine in several ways.  However, talk costs little and you have to be able to make a difference in such a situation.

European professional armies never imagined fighting such an old-fashioned attritional artillery war with minefields and human wave attacks.  Nato armies are organised around the principle of air superiority.  Without air superiority we would be defeated quickly.  Perhaps we need to reconsider basic military strategy but that is not discussed at least in my circles.

The frustration in the Ukraine war is that, from a Nato perspective, you have one hand tied behind your back and missing a leg - you have no air power!.  

Thanks for your regular reports.  "Sterkte" - as we like to say in Netherlands.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Astrophel

[Haiduk]

This night and day Crimea was under attack not only on Kerch bridge:

Night attack of about 20 drones on Novovfedorivka airbase. The attack lasted more than hour. Russian authorities claimed all drones were shot down or supressed.

 

Drone attacked ammo dump on military range in Feodosia. There were multiple detonations, part of "Tavrida" highway was closed

 

[mosuri]

Scratch one Su-30 and two pilots:

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/08/12/su-30-fighter-jet-crashes-in-russias-kaliningrad-region-entire-crew-dead-en-news

More of this please!

[Splinty]

48 minutes ago, buena said:

Easy if you are property developer with the right contacts and lobby power in Washington

I didn't do 2 tours in Iraq to make somebody rich. I went to fight terrorists. You will find the vast majority of my felllow military members went for the same reason. 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

If somebody wants to search black cat in dark room, especially if realy no cat in this room, this is his right. For Eastern European countries, military aspect in their cultures always played important role in upbringing. I think, not a last role in "phenomenon" of fierce Ukrainian resistance played "military culture" memory with an attitude "I have an obligation to be defender of my land", different youth scout and paramilitary organisations, upbringing low-level leaders. Alas, contemporary western culture with it's negative aspects like "life for enjoying and consumption", globalization moods "Nations don't exist, I'm citizen of Universe", leftism, libertarianism etc significantly undermined nation readiness to fight. Now in Ukrainian society more and more we are hearing voices (and this is not only Russian PsyOps): "Why I have to go at the war! Only professionals must to go! I was born to enjoy a life, not to die on minefields! They havn't a right to force me to fight! This is violation of my human rights! If Russians come I will defend my family - we just relocate them to other country, but you closed borders for men, violating my basic human rights to choose a safe place for life!"

When about week ago was published a photos of daughter of marine, fallen in 2020 - three years ago, where she was 10 y.o with a portray of his father and today's photo, where she is 13 y.o with sniper rifle as a cadete of military college, huge number of "snowflakes" and "human right defenders" started to faint "OMG! Little girl with a weapon! It's unacceptable!" Maybe this is a reason why in EU so low level of people, who ready to fight with a wepon for their countries. If education system try to upbrings kids as "snowflakes in rose unicorn kingdom", keeping them from "unwanted stresses, violence, militarism, hard situations" etc. then even usual mountain trip with a tent without a bed and toilet turned out for many of them in dangerous challenge, not speaking of to readiness to engage with a war reality. 

So, I'm for "golden mean clever militarism" in youth upbringing. This is a question of nation health and future stability of countries.
https://brilliantmaps.com/europe-fight-war/

  

 

As for fighting for my country: That is precisely the point. I couldn't care less about my country. My country is just a bunch of lines on a map. It was totally random that I was born within the confines of these lines and not others. Three centuries ago my country didn't even exist. It was a number of smaller areas on a map with some dudes constantly wanting to redraw those lines because they didn't have a playstation or something similar and were bored. Except for the random nobleman who "owned" that patch of land, nobody cared about those lines on the map and much less would have wanted to fight for them. Enter Napoleon and suddenly people here were told that they were Germans and that this conglomerate of lines on a map is something glorious worth fighting and dying for, instead of... well, living in a country that was actually more civilized but with less noblemen still having their heads attached to their necks.

In the following years, people were told that, since they were born inside these lines on a map, they had to hate people for being born inside the neighbouring lines on the map. After the inevitable war, the then "Germans" could finally become Germans, united under a (suddenly beloved) nobleman who called himself emperor. The emperor was of Prussian origin and thus the Germans were told that a militaristic society is the best. With great "Hurray!" millions went to the next war... because... was it even about lines on a map? Or just because going to war is so awesome? Millions of dead later - who absolutely enjoyed the experience of dying for their country (if nothing else), Germans had a brief experiment with nasty leftist ideas like, actually voting for stuff and such.

That ended quickly, when Germans were told that being randomly born to the right parents, they were better than people who were randomly born to different people. And also that the lines on that map absolutely need to be redrawn because people with the right parents need more space and those people being born to parents to the east in areas surrounded by lines called "Poland", "Russia" or "Ukraine" wouldn't need that space, anyway. Oh, and Germans were of course told that being born within the right set of lines, the absolute best is of course to fight and die for that set of lines.

After the inevitable war with even more dead, some people wondered whether those "leftist" ideas weren't all that bad, after all. Voting, inviolability of human dignity, etc. But alas, the lines on the map called Germany had been split into two sets of lines. Both sides were told that it was absolutely preferable to kill their relatives on the other side to allowing them to redraw the lines. If that didn't help it was absolutely necessary to just convert both Germanies, and if necessary the whole world, into a nuclear wasteland.

See, we are kind of fed up with this nonsense of "dying for our country". In between we found out that human rights, like e.g. not getting randomly imprisoned and shot without trial, kind of made sense and that our neighbours weren't as bad as we were told. Even the French. Especially the French. As others have pointed out, had the question been if we are willing to fight for freedom, democracy, etc. the answer would probably have been different.

And finally, let me be honest with you: I support my government in sending billions in money and materiel to help you defend your lives, your right to decide for yourselves, your freedom and, yes, your human rights and the possibility to enjoy your lives. Not the random lines on the map called Ukraine.