How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

17 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Stupid question, but which Urozhaine are we talking about? Near tokmak?

Not Tokmak/Melitopol direction, but Mariupol direction. East of the Mokri Yali River, south of Welika Novosilka and direct east to Staromajorske, north of Staromlynivka. 

[JonS]

4 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Who-hoo! And f.u. sideways Ottawa Treaty.  I was sure the UKR have been using anti-personnel mines in quantities, it is good they have come clean. I hate sanctimonious, knee-jerk, pseudo-

 

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Maybe incorrect translation. Means MON "claymors" or OZM and some other AP-mines, which have option of remote controlled activation by operator or activation via sensors

Wow. I can’t imagine how disappointed in Ukraine you must be right now. It’s so cruel of them to personally let you down like this.

[hcrof]

50 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Not Tokmak/Melitopol direction, but Mariupol direction. East of the Mokri Yali River, south of Welika Novosilka and direct east to Staromajorske, north of Staromlynivka. 

Thanks, Ukrainian villages all have the same names and it is very confusing when people expect you to know which of the 5 identically named places they are talking about! 

[Fenris]

Long interview with two former US servicemen now in southern Ukraine.  They discuss lots of things, I'm about half way through and so far they've talked about river operations near Kherson, the UKR offensive, building an NCO corps.

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by Fenris

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Wow. I can’t imagine how disappointed in Ukraine you must be right now. It’s so cruel of them to personally let you down like this.

No, they are still good lads in my book. Their enthusiastic use of cluster munitions suffices to keep a special place for AFU in my heart. From time to time they also throw in some extrajudicial killings of Russian propagandists or "no prisoners" policy for some Russian units, and my bloodlust is satisfied.

[dan/california]

28 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Thanks, Ukrainian villages all have the same names and it is very confusing when people expect you to know which of the 5 identically named places they are talking about! 

It almost feels intentional at times, especially when you put the name in maps and it keeps sending you to another town with the same name, in another oblast.

[Vet 0369]

10 hours ago, Kinophile said:

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/08/uk-royal-marines-train-ukrainians-in-complex-amphibious-operations/

Not in any scale that suggests an amphibious assault on Crimea,  (cough air/sea supremacy cough) so likely riverine focussed. 

It’s a matter of scale. Marines, both U.S. and UK, don’t generally conduct “large-scale invasion” types of operations. They generally conduct small-scale raid style operations due to the size Corps. Granted. Since WW II, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, have used the USMC incorrectly as the same as Army Infantry in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.so many who knew only those conflicts have a distorted idea of how Marines in general are used. They have always been associated with landings to secure beachheads for the Army Infantry or in raids to force the enemy to redeploy its own forces. If the Royal or U.S. Marines were training UKR Army infantry (I didn’t read the post, so don’t know who was being trained) then I would begin to suspect an Amphibious assault on Crimea.

[kevinkin]

6 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

those conflicts have a distorted idea of how Marines in general are used.

Same as Seals. Why would Seals operate in mountainous terrain? It comes down to marketing and drawing young people toward a specific service regardless of the name of the service in some instances. In a country the size of the US, we will find those that just want the challenge to be a Seal, a marine, a fighter pilot, a tank leader. It almost makes you think why do all these services exist in the first place given there is so much overlap? Tradition I suppose. Each service is its own kingdom. I like it that way as long as they fight as a well oiled team. 

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, hcrof said:

Thanks, Ukrainian villages all have the same names and it is very confusing when people expect you to know which of the 5 identically named places they are talking about! 

LOL, here in the U.S. we have many towns and cities all over the country that have identical names of others in other States and even in the same state (much more rare). To compound the confusion, we have any that are also in other countries, especially in the Northeastern “New England” region and in the Midwest which have a high proportion of Northern and Eastern European immigrants. Why, in Maine, we even have one of Steve’s favorite names, Moscow.

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, Fenris said:

Long interview with two former US servicemen now in southern Ukraine.  They discuss lots of things, I'm about half way through and so far they've talked about river operations near Kherson, the UKR offensive, building an NCO corps.

 

Thank you very much for this YouTube vid! Very enlightening. I particularly liked the assessment that folks who complain the counteroffensive is moving too slowly are idiots. Also, right near the end, the Marine’s answer to the “funniest” thing they’ve encountered during their training classes when he recounted how one of the three of them who spoke English went right instead of left, and said the easiest thing for that person to do was to learn Ukrainian for “Left.” Just like our previous thread on the languages.

Fortunately, both are diplomatic enough to not reveal how annoyed they might be to be referred to as “Soldiers!”

Edited August 12, 2023 by Vet 0369

[Fenris]

ISW today devotes some time to what they believe are lateral RU troop redeployments to sure up the Rotobyne defenses - hopefully true and further indicating that the boiling of the frog continues.

Quote

Ukrainian counteroffensive operations appear to be forcing the Russian military to laterally redeploy Russian forces defending in western Zaporizhia Oblast, indicating that the Ukrainian effort there may be significantly degrading Russian defenses. Russian milbloggers claimed on August 11 that elements of the 7th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division are involved in heavy fighting near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed on August 10 that elements of the “Vostok Akhmat” Battalion are now defending near Robotyne.[4] Elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army’s 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (Southern Military District) have been the primary Russian formation defending immediately south of Orikhiv since the start of the counteroffensive, with elements of the 22nd and 45th Separate Guards Spetsnaz (Russian General Staff Main Directorate) brigades and the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) supporting Russian defensive operations in the area.[5] The arrival of the 7th VDV Division and the Akhmat elements to the Robotyne area represents the first explicit commitment of new Russian formations and units to the area.

There's 3 or 4 further paragraphs on the topic here

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-11-2023

[chrisl]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

But what we are seeing right now is enough drones with a 1000km range and an at least minimally meaningful warhead to impose massive air defense costs on the other side, and real damage when that air defense fails. This is one of the relatively few times that Russias sheer size is actually working against it. They have spread significant military production facilities, and oil infrastructure out as widely as possible, but now they have to try and provide air defense for all of it.

The thing that's missing is the anti-drone drones.  Along the military aviation timeline, we're in early WWI with pilots tossing small bombs out of the cockpit.  The main differences are that the plane is really cheap, has RF comm so that it can transmit realtime ISR, and the pilot doesn't have to be exposed to return fire (because RF comm).  And we have suicide drones that are closer to small cruise missiles with FP joystick control.  We've seen a tiny bit of sticking anti-drone capability on drones, about the equivalent of WWI pilots carrying sidearms to take potshots at each other.  Once people work out anti-drone drones more effectively, the cost of air defense should come down a lot compared to using air defense designed to deal with jets against 5 kg plastic drones.

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

LOL, here in the U.S. we have many towns and cities all over the country that have identical names of others in other States and even in the same state (much more rare). To compound the confusion, we have any that are also in other countries, especially in the Northeastern “New England” region and in the Midwest which have a high proportion of Northern and Eastern European immigrants. Why, in Maine, we even have one of Steve’s favorite names, Moscow.

there are more places called "Springfield" in the US than there are US states.

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

It’s a matter of scale. Marines, both U.S. and UK, don’t generally conduct “large-scale invasion” types of operations. They generally conduct small-scale raid style operations due to the size Corps. Granted. Since WW II, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, have used the USMC incorrectly as the same as Army Infantry in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.so many who knew only those conflicts have a distorted idea of how Marines in general are used. They have always been associated with landings to secure beachheads for the Army Infantry or in raids to force the enemy to redeploy its own forces. If the Royal or U.S. Marines were training UKR Army infantry (I didn’t read the post, so don’t know who was being trained) then I would begin to suspect an Amphibious assault on Crimea.

It says it in the first paragraph, and second - marines training counterparts, marines.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

ISW today devotes some time to what they believe are lateral RU troop redeployments to sure up the Rotobyne defenses - hopefully true and further indicating that the boiling of the frog continues.

There's 3 or 4 further paragraphs on the topic here

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-11-2023

I was very interested in how that VDV division has been essentially disassembled across the pressure points of the front line. This seems like a purely tactical response using a firefighter unit, exposing them to destruction in isolation of each other and dampening learning/experience and organization within the unit itself. 

And Once they're destroyed, who takes their place? Mobiks?

Edited August 12, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, Fenris said:

Long interview with two former US servicemen now in southern Ukraine.  They discuss lots of things, I'm about half way through and so far they've talked about river operations near Kherson, the UKR offensive, building an NCO corps.

 

A really valid line from this:

"The offensive is going at a sustainable pace"

I have a very strong feeling that "sustained and increasing pressure" is a fundamental concept behind the offensives design.

[Kinophile]

Itsa niiiice,  yes

[Kinophile]

 

https://newlinesmag.com/essays/russias-orwell-problem/

New Lines always has an interesting take or read.

Quote

In a 2017 lecture to the St. Volodymyr Institute in Toronto, Canada, the Ukrainian Orwell scholar Olha Luchuk said that, late in his life, Sevcenko had remarked to her, “With the Putin era, ‘Animal Farm’ begins to be actual [topical] again.”

 

Quote

Here, Orwell describes Winston’s encounter at work with his colleague Syme, who enjoys public executions:

“It was a good hanging,” said Syme reminiscently. “I think it spoils it when they tie their feet together. I like to see them kicking. And above all, at the end, the tongue sticking right out, and blue — a quite bright blue. That’s the detail that appeals to me.”

Here is a tweet from the Russian Embassy U.K. account, dated July 29, 2022:

Azov militants deserve execution, but death not by firing squad but by hanging, because they’re not real soldiers. They deserve a humiliating death.

Here is Winston’s frenetic account of a propaganda film that glories in the murder of refugees, including children:

You saw a lifeboat full of children with a helicopter hovering over it … then the helicopter planted a 20 kilo bomb in among them terrific flash and the boat all went to matchwood. Then there was a wonderful shot of a child’s arm going up up up into the air … there was a lot of applause from the party seats but a woman in the prole part of the house started kicking up a fuss and shouting they didn’t oughter of showed it not in front of kids.

Here is the Russia Today (RT) television presenter Anton Krasovsky, fantasizing gleefully in October 2022 about killing Ukrainian children who favored independence:

Just drown those children, drown them … throw them in a river with a strong undercurrent … . Over there every piece of **** little house, there are masses of awful, monstrous little houses … shove them in those huts and burn them up. [Translation via Russian Media Monitor]

After the segment was widely denounced, RT’s director Margarita Simonyan suspended Krasovsky, but quickly reinstated him, as if to show that there was no cancel culture in Russia.

Never forget what kind of a cultural mindset Ukraine is facing.

1984 was prescient, but for me, contrary to the final hopeful little note at the end of that article, its not preventing much in the current Russia.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Kinophile

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, chrisl said:

The thing that's missing is the anti-drone drones.  Along the military aviation timeline, we're in early WWI with pilots tossing small bombs out of the cockpit.  The main differences are that the plane is really cheap, has RF comm so that it can transmit realtime ISR, and the pilot doesn't have to be exposed to return fire (because RF comm).  And we have suicide drones that are closer to small cruise missiles with FP joystick control.  We've seen a tiny bit of sticking anti-drone capability on drones, about the equivalent of WWI pilots carrying sidearms to take potshots at each other.  Once people work out anti-drone drones more effectively, the cost of air defense should come down a lot compared to using air defense designed to deal with jets against 5 kg plastic drones.

Mmmmm I dunno. What do you do against small autonomous drones that emit no signals? Emit a an EM signal and a drone can go after that. Optical targetting, not great at any useful range. Thermal is similar- at least for a sensor mountable on a small drone. There isn’t any solution that is cheaper than the drone you are trying to shoot down.

I submit that the one near term solution is something I proposed to a friend who was interested in drone perimeter surveillance for his private security company- specifically shrimp farms. Get a larger fixed wing drone to fly a circle of 30km radius and give it decent passive sensors, and then if it detects something it sends a signal have several batteries of el cheapo missiles with less good sensors that can go after whatever is in this area. However, this won’t work against a wave of incoming mini cruise missiles.

The better solution is something described in Neal Stephenson’s Diamond Age many decades ago- micro dones that essentially float in the air and are disposable, and form a perimeter kilometers deep, with detection capability etc. But that’s basically filling the air with your own loitering drones, and hoping your drones can loiter longer than theirs. And it’s pretty scifi.

Oh, and my shrimp buddy and I discussed a drone that lands itself, and recharges periodically. The problem is that current batteries shouldn’t discharge much below 50% if you want to get more than 200 charge cycles out of them.

EDIT: Whoever has a good near term solution will become quite rich. There’s been major interest in defence against small cheap drones for at least a decade, and there’s still nothing good, especially against small autonomous systems that are coming.

Edited August 12, 2023 by kimbosbread

[Jorge MC]

this war is clearer  will end with the terms that Russia dictates.

[Holien]

47 minutes ago, Jorge MC said:

this war is clearer  will end with the terms that Russia dictates.

Hmm have you been reading the same thread as me?

Can you explain further how Russia can dictate terms and bring this war to an end?

Maybe we are missing something that you can explain?

[Artkin]

6 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Same as Seals. Why would Seals operate in mountainous terrain? It comes down to marketing and drawing young people toward a specific service regardless of the name of the service in some instances. In a country the size of the US, we will find those that just want the challenge to be a Seal, a marine, a fighter pilot, a tank leader. It almost makes you think why do all these services exist in the first place given there is so much overlap? Tradition I suppose. Each service is its own kingdom. I like it that way as long as they fight as a well oiled team. 

Almost certainly to maintain a high degree of readiness and combat experience/real training in the ranks. 

[cesmonkey]

Quote

Easterly said the United States had learned as much from Ukraine in terms of dealing with an active cyberwar as Ukraine had learned from America. Zhora said the ability to learn from and train with US and EU infosecurity professionals had been crucial in protecting core systems and ensuring that Ukrainian citizens could live a normal-enough existence without losing the technology that makes civil life function. It has also shown how private companies can work effectively with governments to augment online defenses.

 

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Mmmmm I dunno. What do you do against small autonomous drones that emit no signals? Emit a an EM signal and a drone can go after that. Optical targetting, not great at any useful range. Thermal is similar- at least for a sensor mountable on a small drone. There isn’t any solution that is cheaper than the drone you are trying to shoot down.

I submit that the one near term solution is something I proposed to a friend who was interested in drone perimeter surveillance for his private security company- specifically shrimp farms. Get a larger fixed wing drone to fly a circle of 30km radius and give it decent passive sensors, and then if it detects something it sends a signal have several batteries of el cheapo missiles with less good sensors that can go after whatever is in this area. However, this won’t work against a wave of incoming mini cruise missiles.

The better solution is something described in Neal Stephenson’s Diamond Age many decades ago- micro dones that essentially float in the air and are disposable, and form a perimeter kilometers deep, with detection capability etc. But that’s basically filling the air with your own loitering drones, and hoping your drones can loiter longer than theirs. And it’s pretty scifi.

Oh, and my shrimp buddy and I discussed a drone that lands itself, and recharges periodically. The problem is that current batteries shouldn’t discharge much below 50% if you want to get more than 200 charge cycles out of them.

EDIT: Whoever has a good near term solution will become quite rich. There’s been major interest in defence against small cheap drones for at least a decade, and there’s still nothing good, especially against small autonomous systems that are coming.

That big drone in your second paragraph is the first target of the little drones (or really their owners, who might have some fancier high altitude thing to take it out.)

Sensing has to be distributed, and you aren't necessarily limited to one sensor/drone. It will end up being multiple systems that mesh in various ways.  In the Diamond Age concept you don't have to hope your drones can loiter longer - you just have to make them cheap enough that you can afford to run them in randomized shifts so that they have time to recharge and you still have high enough density of them in the air for defense.  And they don't all have to be in the air - many can be parked, sensing passively, just as radio silent as the attack drones, with other devices producing the signal that they sense off of.  And LiFePO4 are good for *way* more than 200 charge cycles to 100%, but they have lower energy density than Li:ion and Li-Po.  You'd probably go for max energy density, since you may not even expect them to last 200 cycles in action anyway.  Ukraine gets what, a few days per drone?

Whoever has a good near term solution will probably find it classified very quickly, if it wasn't developed in a classified space to start with.  We definitely haven't seen anything that's good for defense yet, and given the speed that the western MIC works at, may spend a lot of money for a while without seeing much progress.  And whatever the first few solutions are, they won't last long once someone has to face them - a military with the flexibility that Ukraine has shown will come up with solutions on the fly.

Edited August 12, 2023 by chrisl

[cesmonkey]