How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Knock it off.

I am sick and tired of this obsession with WMD on both sides.  To dismiss the possibility that Russia isn't stupid or desperate enough to resort to nukes is as reckless as it is ignorant of how autocracies behave in their own death throws.  If Hitler had access to nukes in May 1945 and could only detonate them 100km away from Berlin, that whack-o would have ordered it and enough goons existed to have carried it out despite the rest of the military trying to stop them.

On the other hand, it is pretty clear that Russia doesn't view nukes as an attractive option.  Least of all because China and possibly others (India?) made it clear that they would throw their lot in with the West if they were used.  So while I think it is prudent to delicately approach Russia's stated "red lines", I think the West is either not paying attention to Russia's history of "red lines" (i.e. they are bluff) of they are being used as a convenient excuse.

It really is as simple as that.  Anybody who thinks Russia has no red lines and the West should push on as if that's the case needs to put a sock in it and refrain from speaking on the subject ever again.  Those who think that Russia is trigger happy and shouldn't risk giving Ukraine anything more than pointy sticks because it might risk WW3 need to take the other sock, put it in, and also refrain from speaking on the subject ever again.

For those who are not viewing the world in ridiculously out-of-touch black/white reality, let's not continually go down the f'n nuclear weapons rabbit hole every 10 pages or so.  It is as boring as it is pointless.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

The thing about engineers, and engineering equipment, is the correct quantity is tricky to quantify, although the rules-of-thumb are easy to articulate;

During peacetime the correct quantity is 'a lot less', because boring, expensive, and unsexy.

During wartime the correct quantity is 'a lot more', because useful, and amusing. (Although engineers themselves remain deeply, deeply unsexy)

The transition is tricky, though, because you can't just nip down to IKEA and get a couple of flat pack bailey bridges, or order some more engineers off amazon for express delivery.

Exactly this.  Not only is it expensive and not sexy enough to lead the parades (or even be invited to one), the skill sets necessary to pull off all the roles engineers are expected to perform is massively expensive to retain in peacetime.  At least at scale.  Whether it be something mundane (like sanitation) or involved (mine clearing), engineers are expected to perform them equally well in all circumstances and to do so on an infantry commander's concept of time tables.  "I don't care how you make a road through a swamp, I want it done by 0500 tomorrow!".

Engineers in civilian life strike me as odd ducks, so I expect military ones are even odder.  But I can tell you what, whenever I cross a bridge I am thankful for engineers because I shudder to think what a grunt would have come up with!

Steve

[danfrodo]

Interesting little article about the actual war being fought.  In particular talks about UKR marines -- elite light mech infantry working to fight through the RU defenses and open things up for the big boys.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/8/2185860/-Ukraine-Update-Ukrainian-Marine-Corps-are-on-a-mission-to-lead-right-through-the-Russian-defense

 

[paxromana]

Apropos of nothing much at all except the unsexiness of support types in armies ... a long time ago (1973-74) when I was in the CMF (Citizen Military Forces - now Army Reserve) here in Sydney one of the other nearby CMF units was, I kid you not, a Mobile Bathing Unit! That is, proper Showers and the like ... rather than the makeshift ones we used in the field.

Actually quite important for the maintenance of hygiene and health in the field ... but as unsexy as all hell.

Dunno what  happened to it ... lots of stuff got drawn down post Vietnam ... like the single 105mm Light Gun 'Battery' that was near the school where I taught for many years just a couple of suburbs away.

 

[danfrodo]

On another subject, there's some action upstream from Kherson today, looks like a raid.  I've been wondering what the terrain actually looks like now, after dam removal and at the river's annual lowest couple months.  I wonder what's possible?  Could the raids be scaled up?  Or is there just no way to get across without being unacceptably vulnerable for anything except little raiding parties?

Meanwhile, the big question is whether UKR can ever move forward.  And whether there's anyone in all those trenches.  Seems the trenches lying along a horizontal aren't nearly as bad as the tree line trenches and dugouts.  

And looks like big RU mobilization coming -- that could really be a disaster for UKR, so would force them to try to punch through more quickly & w more casualties than they'd otherwise like.  Hopefully a big mobilization would cause serious protests & civil disobedience -- but yes, that is just wishful thinking as nothing ever seems to quell the russian spirit for violent conquest and control.

Edited August 9, 2023 by danfrodo

[paxromana]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

And looks like big RU mobilization coming -- that could really be a disaster for UKR

Probably not so much. Realistically, what could the Ruzzians do? They don't have the trainers left to do more than a cursory level of prep for a new wave of mobiks ... they don't have the gear to do more than equip them as Light Infantry ... it would probably make the situation at the front even worse than it is now with a lot more, basically untrained, poorly equipped, and likely close to useless troops for the already strained Ruzzian logistics system to try and supply ... and they're not doing all that well in that respect even for the depleted forces they actually have in the field.

They'll end up like that idiot general in Dr Zhivago!

[danfrodo]

14 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Probably not so much. Realistically, what could the Ruzzians do? They don't have the trainers left to do more than a cursory level of prep for a new wave of mobiks ... they don't have the gear to do more than equip them as Light Infantry ... it would probably make the situation at the front even worse than it is now with a lot more, basically untrained, poorly equipped, and likely close to useless troops for the already strained Ruzzian logistics system to try and supply ... and they're not doing all that well in that respect even for the depleted forces they actually have in the field.

They'll end up like that idiot general in Dr Zhivago!

I agree that what you say is likely.  I was thinking about these schmucks having to be dug out of every dang trench & dugout for mile after mile, where the skill set can be low but they are still warm bodies w rifles.  In a battle involving any skill they'd be worthless, but they can cause trouble in the close range trenches + woods fighting we've been seeing.

[kevinkin]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am sick and tired of this obsession with WMD on both sides.

Which sides are you referring too? No one wants them detonated. But lets understand they do equalize an otherwise unequal situation - Russia vs the US. Some have an obsession because WMD are making kingmakers out of pawns. 

[Kinophile]

As a former Architect I second @JonS' note - Engineers are unsexy.

Ironically, good engineering is deeply sexy to Architects.

Oh and that ignore button is mmmmm, delicious....

Edited August 9, 2023 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Which sides are you referring too? No one wants them detonated. But lets understand they do equalize an otherwise unequal situation - Russia vs the US. Some have an obsession because WMD are making kingmakers out of pawns. 

And that is exactly the crap I want to stop see being posted here.  The kings ARE ALREADY MADE!  Russia has nuclear weapons and they can, if they choose to, use the f'n things.  NOBODY is making them something they aren't already right now... a threat to the survival of the Human Race.

None of us have any idea under what circumstances Russia might use nukes, but to suggest there is no scenario that it would is beyond dangerous.  It is so ill informed and blind to reality that I could think of a bunch of very unflattering adjectives to describe it.

At an individual level if I get into a fight with a guy that I KNOW FOR A FACT has a loaded pistol on him, I need to take that into consideration.  To do anything other than that gets me to the use of unflattering adjectives again.

We know Russia has nukes and we should be long since convinced that they disregard life and world order enough to use the f'n things.  So, the question should be how far can we push them without nukes being used, NOT we should push them as if they don't have nukes or the demonstrated disregard for Humanity necessary to use them.  The former is not easy to do, the latter is simple but runs into those adjectives again.

AND I AM SICK OF HAVING THIS STUPID TOPIC BROUGHT UP TIME AND TIME AGAIN WITH ABSOLUTELY NOTHING NEW BEING ADDED TO IT.

Carrying on with this topic is risking a vacation from this Forum.  I know I've made myself clear so I don't need anybody to say "message understood".

Steve

[kevinkin]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And that is exactly the crap

Calm down. Have a lobster roll. 

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Calm down. Have a lobster roll. 

I hate lobster almost as much as I hate having to wade through repeated instances of feather ruffling over something that adds nothing of value to this thread.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Article on Russian Ka-52 helicopter losses since the start of the war.  One tidbit from RUSI is quoted as saying they believe the best pilots were shot down in the early assaults that were soundly defeated:

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20317

Steve

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I hate lobster almost as much as I hate having to wade through repeated instances of feather ruffling over something that adds nothing of value to this thread.

Steve

Normally I don't mind that you don't have a like button for your own posts, but this one needs a like.

I've never understood people's obsession with lobster. If you want to eat melted butter, eat melted butter.  No need to roast up a bland crustacean to do it.

[Kraft]

3 hours ago, paxromana said:

Probably not so much. Realistically, what could the Ruzzians do? They don't have the trainers left to do more than a cursory level of prep for a new wave of mobiks ... they don't have the gear to do more than equip them as Light Infantry ... it would probably make the situation at the front even worse than it is now with a lot more, basically untrained, poorly equipped, and likely close to useless troops for the already strained Ruzzian logistics system to try and supply ... and they're not doing all that well in that respect even for the depleted forces they actually have in the field.

They'll end up like that idiot general in Dr Zhivago!

The current untrained mob of convicts has added enough resistance to prevent any major successes this whole offensive. They may die like flies but even the convicts stay in their trench and fight enough to make advancing terribly costly.

The only major success that can be had follows a collapse of the Russian line. With more mobiks, more lines can be filled. Means no collapse, which means endless grinding through trenchlines like its ww1 with a couple hundred meters here and there per day.

If the Russian public doesnt oust their beloved Tsar, then the manpower advantage swings wildly in the wrong direction - and I have little faith in Russian resistance, the zombies will complain but do as told.

Then the only way to win this is to draw enough Russian blood over years long slaughter that the state collapses before Ukraine does. Putin bets the West will force a negotiation before he gets a bullet in his head.

Assuming Trump winning thats not far fetched. The French and German publics will not carry this war alone for years, the Brits and baltics cant alone. 

Edited August 9, 2023 by Kraft

[dan/california]

 

24 minutes ago, Kraft said:

The current untrained mob of convicts has added enough resistance to prevent any major successes this whole offensive. They may die like flies but even the convicts stay in their trench and fight enough to make advancing terribly costly.

 

The only major success that can be had is a collapse of the Russian line. With more mobiks, more lines can be filled.

Quantity has a quality all it own, until that quantity stops fighting in mass, or figures out its real enemy is in Moscow. That is basically what happened in 1917. Is the Russian army at that point, at this very moment? Sadly no. If three hundred thousand more essentially untrained bodies are fed into the meat grinder, presumably with even worse officers than the last batch got, it could get there. I emphasize could, not will. Of course the right thing to to do would be to call up several hundred thousand, and train them until spring 2024. But that would require someone competent to be in charge, and the Russian economy not to melt between now and then. Remember that the last Russian mobilization resulted in two or three people fleeing the country for every one who actually got conscripted. Putin could close the borders of course, but that would notably increase the potential for discontent he has been worried about from the beginning. He may feel he has no choice.

I would like to bring up two of the underlying assumptions in the strategy gradual attrition leading to a negotiated end to the war that seems to be the Western plan. This assumes that this attrition strategy is the lest likely to result in major instability in Russia, and it assumes the Russian regime is rational enough to quit when it realizes it can't win. The time for a well run autocracy to cut bait, declare victory and go home was May first 2022. Russia just keeps feeding the meat grinder instead. There is a real risk they will keep feeding it until the Russian state loses the capacity to keep itself assembled in more or less its current form. They have already flunked the smart autocracy test, we are now descending into the levels of regime self deception that led Ceausescu to give his standard 3 hour speech of BS to a crowd that was so angry they promptly hung him. There were enough guardrails around Romania, and no nukes, so that it didn't matter much. Does anybody think it would go that well in Russia?

Edited August 9, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

9 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

This being a wargaming forum we mostly focus on the AFU personnel and their heroic deeds. But this is a good moment to remember the heroic work that Ukrainian emergency services personnel have also being doing during the course of this war.

In Ukraine State Emergency Service is actually paramilitary structure, subordinating to Ministry of internal affairs,like police and State Border Guard Service. Since 24th of Feb 78 servicemen of SES were lost

[Hapless]

Meanwhile, in Russia:

That is a chunky, visible, photogenic mushroom cloud.

[Bulletpoint]

15 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Hmmm

I think this woman posts disinformation generally.. If I remember, she was also the one spreading rumours of Russians using chemical weapons recently?

In this case, no other news outlet is saying anything about Russia notifying the UN about imposing martial law.

The only thing I could find is this article from TASS, saying "Amendments are expected to be made to Article 22 of the Law on Martial Law and Article 37 of the Law on the State of Emergency. The content of the amendments has not yet been published, but it may be related to the withdrawal of the Russian Federation from the Council of Europe."

https://tass.ru/politika/18467253

 

So not much to go by at the moment.

[kraze]

11 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Meanwhile, in Russia:

That is a chunky, visible, photogenic mushroom cloud.

Nolan taking notes on practical effects for the next movie in the quantum mechanics cinematic universe.

[Taranis]

Short 47th Mechanized Brigade history :

 

 

[Carolus]

There was the news bit that the Pentagon wanted to buy Starlink Terminals which the Elmo Muppet cannot turn on and off based on his ruble bank account. 

But I guess using this alternative won't hurt either. Too bad the two systems cannot interlink to form a network.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

I love those Darth Putin posts!

That is quite the impressive mushroom cloud.  From an optics factory?  I wonder what sort of chemicals might an optics factory have that would produce such an explosive effect?  That is one heck-of-an explosion, complete with materials being lifted several hundred meters (look to the right side).

Is this a smoking accident or did Ukraine visit Moscow with some drones?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

12 hours ago, paxromana said:

Apropos of nothing much at all except the unsexiness of support types in armies ... a long time ago (1973-74) when I was in the CMF (Citizen Military Forces - now Army Reserve) here in Sydney one of the other nearby CMF units was, I kid you not, a Mobile Bathing Unit! That is, proper Showers and the like ... rather than the makeshift ones we used in the field.

Actually quite important for the maintenance of hygiene and health in the field ... but as unsexy as all hell.

Dunno what  happened to it ... lots of stuff got drawn down post Vietnam ... like the single 105mm Light Gun 'Battery' that was near the school where I taught for many years just a couple of suburbs away.

 

I suspect your MoD did the same thing as our DoD did... outsourced it to private contractors. This arrangement takes the burden off the military, budget and manpower wise, to provide routine services that may not be needed but once and a while.  When they are needed, private contractors are far easier to scale appropriate to the need than from within the military.  There is even a chance that it can be done cheaper than if the military did it on its own when all costs over a long period of time are considered.

Of course, there are many downsides to outsourcing.  Limitations on where and when they can be employed is a big one.  Graft/corruption is one of them and accountability is another.  If a lowly enlisted/conscript performed a job poorly the NCO or officer overseeing the job could remedy the situation very directly, but with outsourcing it involves mounds of paperwork and hurdles (as I understand it).  Sometimes even Congressional Hearings or criminal proceedings, like when Green Beret in Iraq were electrocuted while taking a shower.

Overall, though, I think it makes sense.  I know I'd rather have military engineers training to build bridges, demo fortifications, etc. than routinely building latrines.

Steve