How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

I wonder if it had not been better to use the new Brigades and go after Belgorod, then collapse into Russia with close to no resistance, but Im sure Washington has put in some stern words regarding that.

 

[Haiduk]

55 minutes ago, Sekai said:

How will Ukraine respond?

Due to political reasons it will not answer at all. Putin has a blue dream to involve Belarus in war. We don't need northern front now. 

[Haiduk]

28 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

the Ukrainians were considering the evacuation of Kyiv.

I can't read the article, because subscribe is needed, but it was hypothetical idea of city mayor Klichko if Russians could completely destroy power plants and water supply facilities. Also there were rumors in that time, that Russians prepare mass airstrike on Kyiv with free-falling bombs. This caused some anxiety among some citizens, but all talks about evacuatoin remained on the level of talks. It's indeed uncommon task - to disperse about 3 millions of population. 

Edited August 5, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

To be continuing - seven Tu-95 took off. 

[Vanir Ausf B]

31 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I can't read the article, because subscribe is needed,

Relevant text:

He disclosed that in December Ukrainian authorities had been on the brink of ordering the complete evacuation of Kyiv due to the intensity of Russian airstrikes. “Not many people know this, but Kyiv was on the verge of evacuation,” he said. “There was one battle that, in my opinion, determined the fate of Kyiv and the Russian campaign to destroy our energy sector, when 49 cruise missiles were launched at Kyiv.”

In a desperate 15 minutes on December 16, Ukraine fired dozens of missiles from its Soviet-era S-300, American Nasams and German Iris-T systems to save the city from total blackout in freezing temperatures.

“If we had allowed this strike to succeed, Kyiv would have had to be evacuated. And it is very difficult to evacuate two and a half million people,” the colonel said.
 

[Haiduk]

16 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Relevant text:

He disclosed that in December Ukrainian authorities had been on the brink of ordering the complete evacuation of Kyiv due to the intensity of Russian airstrikes. “Not many people know this, but Kyiv was on the verge of evacuation,” he said. “There was one battle that, in my opinion, determined the fate of Kyiv and the Russian campaign to destroy our energy sector, when 49 cruise missiles were launched at Kyiv.”

In a desperate 15 minutes on December 16, Ukraine fired dozens of missiles from its Soviet-era S-300, American Nasams and German Iris-T systems to save the city from total blackout in freezing temperatures.

“If we had allowed this strike to succeed, Kyiv would have had to be evacuated. And it is very difficult to evacuate two and a half million people,” the colonel said.
 

I remember Dec 16. Likely most of missiles were shot down on approaches to the city, because I heard only five or more explosions and several of them were impacts. Its caused temporary blackout in several districts, but during the day all was repaired. But most heavy situation was two-three weeks before, when we had almost two days without electricity and water, when all nuclear plants were stopped. Though, in that time it wasn't strike exactly on Kyiv. 

Edited August 5, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Media has reported from Starokostiantyniv about multiple broken windows in houses and bus station after over the town dozen heavy explosions were thundered. There is a smoke over the town. Such number of explosions says likely Patriot/Mamba worked (2 missiles per one Kinzhal), but probably several misisiles hit airfield - local TG public issued blurred screenshot with heavy smoke in airfield area. But it can be also a fire from shot down missile. Still no information from AF Command.

Russia can launch in one salvo 6 Kinzhals (it has 6 MiG-31K carriers), if one was presumably intercepted in Kyiv oblast, to Starokostiantyniv could fly five. 

The airfield was under Kinzhal attack about 10 days ago, there was no final official report, but likely two of four Kinzhals were shot down.   

[Haiduk]

Russians hit blood transfusion center with guided bomb in Kupiansk

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

There is a smoke over the town. Such number of explosions says likely Patriot/Mamba worked (2 missiles per one Kinzhal), but probably several misisiles hit airfield - local TG public issued blurred screenshot with heavy smoke in airfield area.  

The interviewed Lt. col. mentioned this recent Russian switch of targets.

The Russians have adapted their tactics to avoid Patriot batteries, he said, focusing on striking cities far from the capital, such as Odesa, which are not yet covered. They are also upgrading old missiles with advanced technology and radar-absorbent skins. In recent weeks Moscow’s focus has been trying to take out the Ukrainian airfields from where British Storm Shadow missiles are launched, hitting command and logistical centres deep inside occupied territory.

“The strikes on airfields are a tribute to Storm Shadow. Thank you very much, UK, because they really proved to be very effective. With Storm Shadow, you launch a trap missile and an anti-radar missile. All at the same time in the same direction. So the Russians, if they try to intercept Storm Shadow, get an anti-radiation missile hit on their radar. Plus traps. Very, very effective stuff.”

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

The Russians have adapted their tactics to avoid Patriot batteries

Because we have have only one PAC-3 battery (other one is German PAC-2), capable to intercept ballistic missiles in 25 km radius, it's easy for Russians to avoid it, because it defends Kyiv %) Since Russians couldn't destroy Patriot launchers around Kyiv, they lost ineterest to the city, because almost all missiles were shooting down by AD. Since a half of June and July we had mostly Shakheds attacks and only several missile strikes, when in May we had night fireworks almost 3-4 days per week.  Now they switched to airfields and Odesa oblast. We critically need at least one more PAC-3/Mamba battery to cover this city, because Russian launch improved Onix and Kh-22 missiles.

Edited August 5, 2023 by Haiduk

[JonS]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is surprising to me that the Lancet is able to bust open a Leo 2 as easily as they seem to be able to do.  The drone is effectively a relatively small, low velocity HEAT round.  A standard NATO 120mm HEAT round has roughly 2x as much mass as the Lancet-3 (which I presume these recent hits are) and has a major kinetic aspect that no drone can duplicate. 

Wait - when did KE become important for HEAT rounds? I thought they were all about chemical energy, making the speed of the round irrelevant to penetration ability? For a tank round the speed still matters for accuracy, of course, but that's not so applicable to drones.

[Haiduk]

11 Tu-95 in air

Shakheds are approaching to Starokostiantyniv airfield

[cesmonkey]

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Quote

There is immediate need for these weapons...would make Crimea untenable for Russia and accelerate UKR counteroffensive.

I'm not sure why he thinks that. Taurus has about the same range as Storm Shadow/SCALP EG,  both of which out range ATACM.

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Due to political reasons it will not answer at all. Putin has a blue dream to involve Belarus in war. We don't need northern front now. 

I realize this is probably the correct answer, but I am not sure it is the right question. I would argue, from a couch in Seattle so feel free to tell me I am full of it, that the right question is whether a northern front hurts Russia worse than Ukraine? Or not? To a first approximation the entire Russian army is strung out from Luhansk to Kherson with virtually nothing in reserve. The Belarusian army appears to barely deserve the name. So there is an argument, maybe not a good argument, but an argument, That Ukraine ought to take advantage of Russia mining most of the current front line into impassability, and go take Minsk. Declare Tsikhanouskaya the rightful president, and start setting up drone launchers within 300k of Moscow. Just a  fun thought. At a minimum Ukraine should try to feint hard enough in this direction to give the Russian MOD one more problem. If it is just Lukashenko being annoying by demanding more Russian troops, that wouldn't be useless.

Edited August 6, 2023 by dan/california

[danfrodo]

Good, thorough look at the war of attrition.  yes, confirmation bias for those of us who believe UKR will prevail.  Though sooner is better for UKR (and the world) since all kinds of non-linear events could change the dynamic (RU extortion via energy, food, etc).  But for now, this feller's math says RU is being heavily degraded while UKR is receiving replacing its loses, at least in vehicle losses.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/5/2184924/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-s-war-of-attrition-can-break-Russia-and-it-won-t-take-years

 

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1687885170693537792?t=NteBvNd5xR_jaOAwyNejdg&s=09

 

[kevinkin]

13 hours ago, danfrodo said:

math

Thanks for the article as it does examine the idea that attrition is another form of maneuver warfare. And I agree that firepower is more important than manpower. The outcome of the math requires accurate numbers which we don't have. We don't know if UA losses are efficient. Separating material losses and manpower losses does not last forever. Especially if the attacking force is on the long term inferior manpower side. That means UA needs firepower now. It needs to increase the RA loss rate in relative terms. There are so many unknowns, distilling this down to math as we would in peace time, may not produce an accurate result. The RA may crush the UA in a month or never. Moral factors play a role as well. That's in the work of phycology.  A concern is that the west may see their UA proxy as obtaining the west's objects short of Ukraine obtaining theirs. That goes beyond the calculus of combat. The article is thought provoking for sure. Glad you posted it. 

PS: The article mentions the western brigades are "crack" which has not been demonstrated on the battlefield. Little training + little combat experience does not equal crack. Better than what they will face? A  high probably, but not as simple as arithmetic in a real horrific war of survival. 

Edited August 6, 2023 by kevinkin

[Aragorn2002]

7 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Part of me wants to see Ukraine able to have long distance weapons, but I fear they not ony will be used against Crimea. The more the Russians continue with their terror attacks on civilian targets, the louder the call of the Ukrainian people will become to strike back at Moscow and other Russian cities. So better not to give Zelensky that option perhaps. Not yet at least. And without F-16s these missiles can't be used anyway. Not sure of that.

Apart from the above little good will come from bombing Moscow, a couple of thousand dead or wounded Russians, some damage, both to buildings and the Ukrainian reputation and a road to escalation. As we know from ww2 it won't have much impact on the Russian will to fight. Not that they have a choice in it. All in all a wise German/US decision. For the moment.

What I often ask myself is what will be the reaction of the West when Putin starts using tactical nukes? What can the West do more than is already happening? More sanctions, arms deliveries to Ukraine and more damage to Russia's reputation won't impress Putin. Any thoughts?

Edited August 6, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Putin starts using tactical nukes?

The technology is here to knock all the internet dependent satellites. Without it international banking transactions and traffic will cease. High tech scorched universe.

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

The technology is here to knock all the internet dependent satellites. Without it international banking transactions and traffic will cease. High tech scorched universe.

Okay, but Putin will find a way to make us pay for that big time. And God knows the bastard is good at that. Nobody will gain from that.

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Okay, but Putin will find a way to make us pay for that big time. And God knows the bastard is good at that. Nobody will gain from that.

I think behind the scenes some talk is going on. We can only guess. They thought the Kaiser was bad after WW1. It is a case of better the devil you know.

[womble]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

The technology is here to knock all the internet dependent satellites. Without it international banking transactions and traffic will cease. High tech scorched universe.

Rubbish. International banking comms isn't reliant on satellites. They'd have to start snipping oceanic cables as well, and that would, I believe, go hard for Russia, and they know it. As, indeed, would taking out communications satellites, but probably to a lesser degree.

[chuckdyke]

20 minutes ago, womble said:

Rubbish.

I got it from an article. It will be chaos, cell phones will be non functional and people won't be able to do their daily shopping with them. 

27. Banks Will Be Overrun
It is clear that one of the biggest things that could likely happen if we lost the internet is that banks would be absolutely overrun on a daily basis. Without the internet, checks will be sent by our employers again as Direct Deposit will not be possible. This means people will need to bring their checks in and likely get money out quite often.

Sadly, cash will be needed and most banks will not have enough to hand out to their customers. Most typically work with digital numbers due to card usage. Obviously, with so much going on most banks will not have enough staff members to handle it all. Instead of hiring, big bank companies will likely shut down smaller banks and re-route staff to their central banks.

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

it won't have much impact on the Russian will to fight.

This will cause economical losses, and rage of vatniks, directed on Putin, who offered them "Kiev for three days", but instead they will get a war at their home. Don't comapre Germans or Soviets of WWII period and modern Russia. Current Russian politicum and nation are a doorway thug. He is strong, fierce, impudent and haughty, but coward. If he pass several painful hits, he retreats. You can recall First Chechen war. West with his "please do not provoke, do not escalate" similar to refery, which force one side to fight only with boxing rules in boxing gloves, when his opponent can fight free even using prohibited technics and knuckles on his fists. Any attempt of one side to respond the enemy, kicking his balls meets a panic reaction "OMG! This is so inhumane! We do not recommend this! What if he become more angry and attack referies and spectators?!" refery and public to this time think they watch a fair sport competition, but indeed is a no-rule fight to the death.