How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

BRIDGE

Lets hope it is fkn gone for good now, especially the rail-line.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said:

It doesn't follow that English would dominate operations and permeate this war at all, given that the majority of people involved are not English speakers. It has been pointed out in many ways by many people here that this is Ukraines war. 

As to your second point:For decades anglophone militaries have been sending people to fight and die in places that don't speak English without bothering to teach them basic phrases used in country to communicate with locals, and you don't see that as a historic and endemic problem?  Countries "putting language barriers to foreign people who want to fight " you mean the simple fact that Ukraine is not an English speaking country? No one is saying people should be fluent Ukrainian speakers either, but this isn't Cincinnati and there isn't a mcdonalds at every highway exit. 

So US C4ISR is highly integrated with UA ops at this point, and has been noted many times is integral in the prosecution of this war…what language do you suppose that is being spoke in?  And the UA training support, I personally know guys doing this and the working language is English.  All this HIMARs, what language do you suppose the manuals are written in?There is no doubt translator support but English is all over this thing as it is the language of the support that is keeping Ukraine in this freakin war.

And as I have pointed out repeatedly…this is not solely Ukraines war.

As to our track record of lack of local language skills - of course it is an issue but what do you suggest?  Adding on a year of language training to already overloaded force generation systems.  “A few simple phrases”?  Which ones?  And then there is context because a few simple phrases can start a gunfight in the wrong context.

My overall point is that if a guy wants to go overseas and fight for Ukrainian freedoms, putting his life on the line everyday; a bunch of armchair generals on this forum getting huffy because his Ukrainian is not “up to snuff” is disrespectful and self-inflated.  It is also ignorant of 1) the extent English is employed in the theatre and 2) the realties of warfare.  Lack of language skills is going to limit the individuals utility and of course it would be great if everyone was fluent, but this is dire straits and harsh times - if he can freakin shoot Russians he is good enough for the job.  

Frankly the level of discourse on this entire forum is sinking if we honestly want to pick apart a volunteers willingness to serve in the cause of greater freedom because of some latent anti-Anglo/US -insecurities.  For all those that think this volunteer is “doing it wrong”.  Well go learn a bunch of Ukrainian and then go over and join the fight…then you might have a leg to stand on.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

His point is that if an individual from the West volunteers to fight in Ukraine, it would be smart to learn some of their language.  The videos of "Cognac" in his MRAP turret shows the usefulness of this where he at least can speak enough Ukrainian to guide a vehicle's direction and speed.

Anyway, the point was raised, it was a good point, and now we're just spinning around in circles. 

To lighten the mood...

I spent 2 weeks in what was Yugoslavia and English was just about never heard by my ears.  So I learned enough Serbo-Croat to do basic polite stuff (greetings, good nights, thanks, etc.), count, find the bathroom (you had to pay for each piece of toilette paper, BTW), get to the bus station, buy food, etc.  I even knew how to ask the ladies if I could buy them a drink   And when my limited Serbo-Croat didn't work, I sometimes could use my basic German.  From what I gathered they didn't like speaking German to Germans/Austrians, but they were OK with me doing it since I was American. 

I suck at languages, but even for a short visit I was able to do this .  As proof I suck at languages, today in my head I tried to formulate something in Spanish and it came out as  "Wo ist euer jeffe de casa?" because I use my rusty German more than my rusty Spanish.  I am fortunate I didn't need to actually say what I thought up.

Steve

 

Fair point, and I am not saying language skills are a bad idea.  It is the self-righteous BS of judging a volunteer in the middle of this war because he does not speak enough Ukrainian for some plug sitting at home at a computer terminal that gets me going.  The guys will pick it up as stuff like “Excuse me I think my legs was just blown off and I need assistance” gets picked up pretty quickly.  

Been on this thread from the start but this is a bit of a low point in my opinion.

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

LOL I'm envisioning the Marine booklet...

Can I buy you a drink

Do you live far from here

etc etc

LOL, actually, the typical Norwegian can speak English better than most native speakers. Fun fact, Norway and Japan require English language classes from the first grade to secondary school for all students. All Airline Pilots and Air Traffic Controllers are required to use English to communicate. France once tried to require pilots in French airspace to use French instead of English. The International Aviation Community put a stop to that attempt real fast!

[chuckdyke]

Like Super Market Dutch is the first step. People who learned English as a 2nd language often spell better than native speakers. How will knocking out internet satellites affect the war in the Ukraine? I see it coming by laser technology. 

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Jiggathebauce said:

It doesn't follow that English would dominate operations and permeate this war at all, given that the majority of people involved are not English speakers. It has been pointed out in many ways by many people here that this is Ukraines war. 

Having a common language between allies is important depending on the level of command. At the tactical level, basic commands and responses will work. As you move up the command level and dealing with NATO, English becomes mandatory. Zeleinsky is not perfect at English but he can address Congress. It does not mean a company commander has to be that proficient. At that level, the warfighter has to be as proficient as to get the job done. If a warrior wants to volunteer to fight on deadly battlefield without knowing what his fellow fighters are saying so be it. "Anglophone" militaries are not sending volunteers. But if NATO put troops on the ground in numbers, one of the considerations in planning joint ops would be communication skills or strong training for a short and specific op where language would not be an issue. I am sure the UA takes knowledge of English into consideration and spreads that knowledge around where it's most important to a point that it is a strategic asset. Small numbers of volunteers need to learn the basics of the local military speak if they so choose, not the other way around. But the default language for regulars will be English.   

This not an unknown issue, but the UA is fighting to survive and first things first. 

https://www.voanews.com/a/armed-with-english-ukraine-soldiers-take-language-lessons/6889881.html

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Fair point, and I am not saying language skills are a bad idea.  It is the self-righteous BS of judging a volunteer in the middle of this war because he does not speak enough Ukrainian for some plug sitting at home at a computer terminal that gets me going.  The guys will pick it up as stuff like “Excuse me I think my legs was just blown off and I need assistance” gets picked up pretty quickly.  

Been on this thread from the start but this is a bit of a low point in my opinion.

Honestly, I think you're jumping at a shadow.  The original post DEFINITELY was about volunteers lacking even the most rudimentary knowledge of Ukrainian for purely practical purposes, just as my example of the gunner knowing enough Ukrainian to perform a fraction of his basic role in the turret.  Not having some means of communicating properly puts that person's life at risk as well as those around them.  It also reduces the military value of the volunteer compared to if language was not a barrier.  The videos of Legion guys not even being able to communicate what direction fire is coming from, not to mention if the fire is friendly or not, is really not good for anybody.

The point you are making, which nobody is challenging, is that it's impractical for militaries (i.e. not volunteers who are specifically drawn to a specific fight) to be ready to speak every possible language that they might encounter while deployed.  And I agree with you that if my country is going to some other country to bail them out of a mess, then they should not be looking a gift horse in the mouth.  Still, whatever mission is being performed would be more effective if language and cultural barriers weren't an issue and therefore it is prudent to at least try to lower those barriers.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Jiggathebauce said:

As to your second point:For decades anglophone militaries have been sending people to fight and die in places that don't speak English without bothering to teach them basic phrases used in country to communicate with locals, and you don't see that as a historic and endemic problem?  Countries "putting language barriers to foreign people who want to fight " you mean the simple fact that Ukraine is not an English speaking country? No one is saying people should be fluent Ukrainian speakers either, but this isn't Cincinnati and there isn't a mcdonalds at every highway exit. 

Obviously part of a military mission is to interact with the locals and how that interaction goes lasts long after the military mission is over.  Ideally it would be great if it was just tourists that left a bad impression, but we don't live in an ideal world.  Western militaries understand this and do try to at least get some basics in the hands of their soldiers (I have a USMC Pashtuns phrase card somewhere), it's just that there's a practical limitation on how much can be done.  The ideal is never, ever going to happen.

If I were the Enlightened Dictator Of The World I would mandate that every citizen be able to speak a newly created, super simple common language on top of whatever else they speak at home.  But I am not in that position and English is the closest we have to a universal language (and it sucks for that), so it is what it is.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

At least the language of your neighbour country could be your third language if you live outside the English-speaking world. Otherwise, your second language. Besides it is fun. 

[Battlefront.com]

Some of The_Capt's compadres are helping train Ukrainian sappers:

Steve

[kevinkin]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

super simple common language

Wait a second, the Matrix already implemented a super simple common language and it's here - Emojis. 

 

No Dictator Of The World needed; humans do this to ourselves. 

Edited August 5, 2023 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

Closeup of a Leopard 2 that, I think, we saw hit by a Lancet the other day.  It's very badly damaged by fire.  Look a the roadwheels for evidence of how bad it was (you need to log in to see this as the account is flagged age restricted):

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1687504028773519361

And if you can see the above, you will want to check out this great shot of the damage to the Kerch bridge taken from a passenger on a Russian train:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1687406312630489088

Steve

[MikeyD]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

His point is that if an individual from the West volunteers to fight in Ukraine, it would be smart to learn some of their language.

Reminds me the story that Brits now use the term 'plonk' for cheap wine because back in WWI British soldiers in France couldn't understand the French when they said 'vin blanc'.

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

 

Rybar stated that this ship, the Sig, was transporting fuel products to Russia's Syrian forces.  No idea if that is true or not, but if it is this once again shows that Ukraine carefully selects its targets to conform to international law.  Sinking a Russian civilian ship transporting civilian cargo would beg a no-no.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Closeup of a Leopard 2 that, I think, we saw hit by a Lancet the other day.  It's very badly damaged by fire.  Look a the roadwheels for evidence of how bad it was (you need to log in to see this as the account is flagged age restricted):

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1687504028773519361

You mean this one?

https://community.battlefront.com/topic/140931-how-hot-is-ukraine-gonna-get/?do=findComment&comment=2004579

Location doesn't match, and that tank was hit on the right side.

I found two other videos of Lancet hits on Leo 2A6s but their locations don't match with Girkin's either.

https://www.reddit.com/r/DestroyedTanks/comments/14601r1/leopard_2a6_abandoned_and_struck_by_lancet_drone/

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/15h9rt2/german_leopard_2a6_tank_taken_out_by_the_lancet/

Edited August 5, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B

[kevinkin]

ISW:

Russian authorities are continuing to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of summer camps.

Has there been any reporting/analysis on the potential of Russia using these kids as barter in negotiations if/when they start? It's a very hard subject to discuss. I would rather not bring up my views on the matter except to say this one issue might prolong the conflict beyond the current kinetic fighting more than any other. Unless these kids are allowed to disappear in the fog of war forever and forgotten. 

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

It could also be infrared sensors on the drone picking up the hot exhaust from the stacks.

Looks like the image sensor is vis/very near IR (like security camera kind of IR) with the gain cranked up high.  The couple of bright objects in the sky early on are probably much smaller than they look because of that.  None of the light sources are actually very bright - the bright spots are maxing out at the whatever the limiting value is for the pixels, but they aren't blooming from having way too much light.  When the drone is close to the ship you can make out some more distinct smaller lights on board that are comparably bright to the two small objects in the sky.  Those aren't very bright.

[Battlefront.com]

50 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

You mean this one?

https://community.battlefront.com/topic/140931-how-hot-is-ukraine-gonna-get/?do=findComment&comment=2004579

Location doesn't match, and that tank was hit on the right side.

I found two other videos of Lancet hits on Leo 2A6s but their locations don't match with Girkin's either.

https://www.reddit.com/r/DestroyedTanks/comments/14601r1/leopard_2a6_abandoned_and_struck_by_lancet_drone/

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/15h9rt2/german_leopard_2a6_tank_taken_out_by_the_lancet/

Yeah, none of those seem to be correct.  However, I think that last link shows the the one I posted.  Check at the very beginning way off to the right, almost out of the frame:

Turret orientation, "slumped" look, turret roof panel missing on right side, burned out vegetation behind it, position next to the road, slight bend in the road, etc. all look consistent.

It is surprising to me that the Lancet is able to bust open a Leo 2 as easily as they seem to be able to do.  The drone is effectively a relatively small, low velocity HEAT round.  A standard NATO 120mm HEAT round has roughly 2x as much mass as the Lancet-3 (which I presume these recent hits are) and has a major kinetic aspect that no drone can duplicate.  Yet consistently when they hit Leo 2s they take them out, unlike when they hit something with ERA (like the Bradley we just saw).

Steve

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Fair point, and I am not saying language skills are a bad idea.  It is the self-righteous BS of judging a volunteer in the middle of this war because he does not speak enough Ukrainian for some plug sitting at home at a computer terminal that gets me going.  The guys will pick it up as stuff like “Excuse me I think my legs was just blown off and I need assistance” gets picked up pretty quickly.  

Been on this thread from the start but this is a bit of a low point in my opinion.

I think you identified a big part of the immediate problem, the best Ukrainian English speakers are in much higher priority jobs than jeep driver. The way the International legion tries to minimize this problem may or may not be ideal, but as you said they have the near infinite bravery to BE there, and they deserve our utmost respect.

The real problem on the forum is that the volume of publicly available information has gone way down, so we are over chewing what we do get. At least a few Russian mil-bloggers are still posting SOMETHING that isn't pablum.

The real answer to the language problem in the long term is probably going to come from software. Indeed I would argue that the more or less automatic translation of online material has been a LARGE benefit to the Ukrainian cause, even if the current generation of stuff is to clunky to help much on the battlefield. 

In terms of military training, you are quite correct that the syllabus is rather overwhelming now. Software has some role to play here as well, though. language training apps have improved a great deal. I certainly wouldn't mandate that soldiers spend much of their free time using them. I would, though, consider moderately significant rewards of one sort or another if they learn enough to pass even the most basic of proficiency tests in in a language that has some chance of being militarily useful. That could be a bit extra in the pay packet, or have it be a formal positive consideration for promotion. It would be worth doing simply because like so many other things it is difficult to fix in a hurry.

 

 

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, none of those seem to be correct.  However, I think that last link shows the the one I posted.  Check at the very beginning way off to the right, almost out of the frame:

Turret orientation, "slumped" look, turret roof panel missing on right side, burned out vegetation behind it, position next to the road, slight bend in the road, etc. all look consistent.

It is surprising to me that the Lancet is able to bust open a Leo 2 as easily as they seem to be able to do.  The drone is effectively a relatively small, low velocity HEAT round.  A standard NATO 120mm HEAT round has roughly 2x as much mass as the Lancet-3 (which I presume these recent hits are) and has a major kinetic aspect that no drone can duplicate.  Yet consistently when they hit Leo 2s they take them out, unlike when they hit something with ERA (like the Bradley we just saw).

Steve

Clearly the fact the ERA really does work needs to be digested by vehicle designers going forward. Of course the other thing that is rather urgent is a real solution for lancet class drones. And if anybody in NATO thinks they have one it needs to get shoved to the Ukrainian front lines soonest.

Edited August 5, 2023 by dan/california

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Rybar stated that this ship, the Sig, was transporting fuel products to Russia's Syrian forces.  No idea if that is true or not, but if it is this once again shows that Ukraine carefully selects its targets to conform to international law.  Sinking a Russian civilian ship transporting civilian cargo would beg a no-no.

Steve

They selected a U.S sanctioned apparently empty cargo ship if the recording is true, seemingly very high standards of target selection. 

can't even have environmentalists decrying spilled fuel over a potential sinking. 

Quote

"SIG" (IMO: 9735335) was sanctioned by the United States in 2019 along with four other vessels, three individuals, and one entity, for participating in a sanctions evasion scheme to facilitate the delivery of jet fuel to Russian forces operating in Syria.

 

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.economist.com/international/2023/08/04/what-ukraines-bloody-battlefield-is-teaching-medics

For its part, Ukraine is in the midst of a transition away from Soviet-style care. Before 2017 it had no professional cadre of combat medics, says Maria Nazarova, an instructor in the country’s armed forces. By 2022 it had trained 650 of them, a drop in the ocean for a notional million-man army. The training centre, short of instructors and facilities, now prepares fewer than 300 people per month for the battlefield, each of whom has had just those four weeks of instruction.

The current counter-offensive, which is forcing Ukrainian troops to cross minefields in the teeth of drone and artillery attacks, is intensifying the burden on medical care. “I have not seen such a spike in the demand for tourniquets since June last year,” says Evgen Vorobiov, a lawyer in Kyiv who works as a volunteer with six different brigades. He adds that chest seals and ultrasound devices are also needed.

 

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/08/04/as-talks-about-possible-peace-talks-start-ukraines-backers-must-hold-firm

 

Ukraines military medical system is infinitely better than Russia's, but also very much a work in progress. It also seems to be a place where some gentle coaching at the higher levels of command could really do some good. They have not fully incorporated the lessons of the last twenty years they could apply in their circumstances. Helicopter evac unfortunately is just not a thing in the Ukrainian environment.

The title of the second article speaks for itself.

 

[Kinophile]

 

Hitting the Sig. 

[dan/california]

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/08/ukraine-western-diplomacy/674920/

 

Quote

 

Western Diplomats Need to Stop Whining About Ukraine

Allies can be exasperating. But try being invaded by your neighbor and lectured by everyone else.

 

Really well said, i thought. The rest of the article is quite good as well.

 

[chuckdyke]

From the Ukraine.