Carolus Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 (edited) Less significant bridge-related thing: Pro-Russian sources claim that the Ukrainians abbandoned the bridgehead near the Antonovsky bridge, on the other side of the Dniepr from Kherson City. I couldn't find any good confirmation on this. Last news in this thread was that the RU is still trying to dislodge the Ukrainian position, if I am not mistaken. I wonder if the crime of Khakhovka dam won't come around to hurt the Russians along the river after all. Edited July 17, 2023 by Carolus 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 (edited) Claimed to be from this morning. All over twitter, probably originally from a telegram channel. One road span collapsed. The oyher road span exists but it looks a wee bit twisted, angled slightly down towards the collapsed part by maybe half a foot at the lowest point. As if it is sagging a bit. Haven seen anything about the railway part yet. Edited July 17, 2023 by Carolus 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Mandatory. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Quote Much goodness in todays ISW report https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-16-2023 Key Takeaways: The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears to be accelerating this effort. Insubordination among commanders appears to be spreading to some of their soldiers. Teplinsky himself set the precedent for the acts of insubordination that are currently plaguing the Russian MoD. The Kremlin’s chronic disregard for the Russian chain of command is likely hindering Shoigu and Gerasimov in their attempts to suppress insubordination and establish full control over the Russian military in Ukraine. The intensifying dynamic of insubordination among Russian commanders in Ukraine may prompt other commanders to oppose the Russian military leadership more overtly. Russian commanders are likely setting information conditions to prevent the Russian MoD from punishing them for their insubordination by promoting narratives among Russian servicemembers along the front and thereby risking widespread demoralization. The Russian veteran and ultranationalist communities appear to be readily defending the commanders’ insubordination by amplifying defeatist discussions that may have direct effects on Russian servicemembers’ morale. The apparent crisis in the Russian chain of command and the corresponding morale effects it may produce will likely degrade Russian capabilities to conduct tactical offensive operations that are critical to the Russian elastic defense in southern Ukraine. The apparent Russian chain of command crisis threatens to demoralize the wider Russian war effort in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and reportedly made limited gains. Kiriyenko’s role in this consolidation is notable given his increasing reach in the Russian federal government and prior connections to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin. The above is just half of the bullet points, there is a vast amount of detail if you want to read it all. The really short version is the Putin's incompetence, combined with the Russian MOD's incompetence, and the echoes of Prig's coup are just about to break the Russian chain of command. People all the way up and down are on the edge of simply refusing orders. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Tendar has a good picture of the bent segment. The BAZA watermark is making it hard to see what's going on in the most interesting part of the pic above (also shown on Tendar): 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kluge Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 36 minutes ago, Carolus said: Haven seen anything about the railway part yet. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jul/17/russia-ukraine-war-live-crimean-bridge-emergency-traffic-stops-explosion?page=with:block-64b4cd408f080a06e3061160#block-64b4cd408f080a06e3061160 Quote Train services across the bridge will resume by 9am local time (0600 GMT), the Russia-installed governor of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, has said, while further updates will be given on ferry services to Kuban, in Krasnodar The railway appears to be at least partially functional. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 18 minutes ago, dan/california said: The above is just half of the bullet points, there is a vast amount of detail if you want to read it all. The really short version is the Putin's incompetence, combined with the Russian MOD's incompetence, and the echoes of Prig's coup are just about to break the Russian chain of command. People all the way up and down are on the edge of simply refusing orders. See, this is what worries me. Russian commanders and troops refusing bad orders is bad for Ukraine. The incompetence of the MoD is a big factor of why the war has been going like it has been going. Dead Russians is the current measuring stick for deoccupation efforts. When Russian soldiers refuse meat assaults, but instead stay on the defense, this makes the Ukrainian job harder, not easier. When Russian soldiers abbandon soviet-style "obey the written letter" military planning, this makes the Ukrainian job harder, not easier. This is not a 1917 situation, with disillusioned, hungry Russian soldiers wanting to get home. It is disillusioned, hungry Russian soldiers beginning to refuse orders so that they can stay in Ukraine longer and kill Ukrainians better. Of course, disruptions of official chain of command is not a net positive for an army. But in this particular case of today's Russian Army, it might not be a net negative either. The most dangerous formations on the Russian side are volunteers who modernise, teach, fundraise, build drones and act with initiative. With the authority of the MoD eroding, these volunteers will gain influence, not lose it. This is the difference between that one Russian throwing a jammed gun away while defending a trench and having a gun that works. And some guys with FPV drones that fly into the Ukrainian attack squad. Yes, most of the Russian platoon is still useless and cowers in the dugout. But it is nonetheless a possibility for accumulated small improvements. To clarify, because that seems to have been the impression from my "paranoid post", I am not saying this will suddenly turn the Russian Army into a vastly improved fighting force and makes them suddenly win the war and parade through Kyiv in 2024. I think this will draw the war out. It moves the needle more towards standstill. It costs more Ukrainian lives - even if the overall outcome down the line is not significantly changed. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Carolus said: To clarify, because that seems to have been the impression from my "paranoid post", I am not saying this will suddenly turn the Russian Army into a vastly improved fighting force and makes them suddenly win the war and parade through Kyiv in 2024. I think this will draw the war out. It moves the needle more towards standstill. It costs more Ukrainian lives - even if the overall outcome down the line is not significantly changed. I think you are reacting in a very one sided way. An army that starts refusing orders undermines the authority of the state. That army doesn't function independent of the state apparatus. It doesn't mobilize troops, it doesn't make economic decisions, it doesn't drive the overall political process nor negotiate with the few allies Russia has. It undermines all that by making the state appear to not have control and therefore authority. Think Xi wants to be in bed with a guy whose own army is in revolt? Who decides who in the army gets resources? Who decides that X artillery brigade supports which corps? Who decides what aviation resources support which sector of the front? Chaos absolutely serves the interest of the UA. With confusion as to who is in charge, the ability to respond to UA advances declines. The RA isn't suddenly going to start fighting smarter, it is simply going to fight even less coordinated than it does now. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, sburke said: I think you are reacting in a very one sided way. Point taken. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sojourner Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Russian Soldiers Held In Pits And Cellars For Refusing To Fight In Ukraine https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-soldiers-punished-refusing-fight-ukraine/32505035.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 https://t.me/milinfolive/103634 Quote Russia's Kalashnikov released a video of Lancet drone production facilities, signaling that so many are made that the drone's chief designer Aleksandr Zaharov "has to use a Segway to go around his enterprise." Quote You may not believe big numbers, but one of the largest producer of drones in Ukraine recently stated that russia is able to produce 45-50K FPV drones per month. We don't produce 10K. Moreover, last year ru government created multi-billion $ UAV program. Lancets & Orlans must be a priority. Is Russia always lying about their accomplishments? Of course they do. Can a pro-Ukraine account be wrong? Of course as well. And they didn't post any sources for the concerns of Ukrainian manufacturers. Too much shrugging can also prevent us from preparing for eventualities. One of the basic aspects of playing CM is that you have to move with the potential enemy positions and their fire in mind. Just like that, we should not forget that Iranian and Chinese shipments to Russia are only limited by how much Iran and China want to hurt the West while accepting bags of inflated rubles. Generally it pays to be careful, is what I want to say. Ukraine pays the price when the West is neglectful. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 I wonder why the rail bridge was not targeted 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxromana Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: I wonder why the rail bridge was not targeted Better protected? More closely watched? Anti-'torpedo' netting? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, paxromana said: Better protected? More closely watched? Anti-'torpedo' netting? Perhaps rail bridges have higher engineering requirements (a loaded goods train has a lot more mass in a small area than any road traffic), meaning that an explosive USV isn't a feasible way to damage the rail bridge reliably, while the road bridge has a high chance of being completely severed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxromana Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, TheVulture said: Perhaps rail bridges have higher engineering requirements (a loaded goods train has a lot more mass in a small area than any road traffic), meaning that an explosive USV isn't a feasible way to damage the rail bridge reliably, while the road bridge has a high chance of being completely severed. Sounds reasonable - it was the fire which ruined the steel that did in the rail sections last time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 (edited) Here's another video. It looks like both road spans are damaged, there's a lot of rebar coming out from the bottom of the right section. The beam holding the sections is probably damaged too. Shame that they didn't manage to also hit the rail bridge. Edited July 17, 2023 by Huba 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 (edited) Reports that train services on the Kerch Bridge have been stopped as well as ferry services. It could just be temporary while they check for damage or assess further risk of course - https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3736626-train-services-stopped-on-kerch-bridge.html If naval drones were the cause, Russia are going to have to figure out how they got through. Edited July 17, 2023 by Offshoot 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 When you get a clear incidence of an act of war you can't wish for it to go away. A dictator will take the go away wishers as weaklings. The plain truth is decent people can't go back to do business with the Kremlin. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, paxromana said: Sounds reasonable - it was the fire which ruined the steel that did in the rail sections last time. Also the rail bridge in this section is much higher above the water than the road part, which almost hugs the surface, making it much harder to damage with the same quantity of explosives. Edited July 17, 2023 by Huba 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Part IV: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Ambush by pro-Ukrainian Chechens on Russian convoy; driver ewidently killed: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teufel Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 3 hours ago, Huba said: Here's another video. It looks like both road spans are damaged, there's a lot of rebar coming out from the bottom of the right section. The beam holding the sections is probably damaged too. Shame that they didn't manage to also hit the rail bridge. Maybe it’s just me but does the paving on the lefthand side appears to be new? At 14-15 seconds there is clear visual difference approximately halfway on the section. Looks new closer to the camera judging by the black color and gray further away. Could be any given reason the section was newly paved but just makes me wonder if the bridge was struck close to previously destroyed sections? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindestens Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 (edited) Russian Su-25 crashed into the water near Yeysk, Krasnodar, Russia. Pilot ejected. Edited July 17, 2023 by Mindestens additional vid 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Well that's one way to beat the Kerch Bridge traffic to the beach. I wonder if the pilot or the picnic basket had priority for the parachute? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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