How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Day of reckoning has come...

 

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1678461755767357442?s=20

[cesmonkey]

Any idea what message Ukraine's MOD is trying to send with this video?
It begins with a timer counting down from 60, shows various quick shots of Ukrainian forces in action, and ends with "The Day of Reckoning Has Come".
 

 

[DesertFox]

After all this Mumbo Jumbo about EU membership, this came through right now:

 

 

https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1678484703060324359?s=20

[TheVulture]

14 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

After all this Mumbo Jumbo about EU membership, this came through right now:

 

 

https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1678484703060324359?s=20

Not really a surprise in the end. There was too much pressure from just about every other NATO member (Hungary excluded) for Sweden to join. It was always about Erdogan holding out for some concessions on other issues, and presumably they've managed to find an acceptable compromise. I'm going to guess that Turkey is out of luck on its desire to have various PKK members in Sweden extradited, but they've probably got some economically beneficial trade-offs.

[DesertFox]

8 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

 It was always about Erdogan holding out for some concessions on other issues, and presumably they've managed to find an acceptable compromise. I'm going to guess that Turkey is out of luck on its desire to have various PKK members in Sweden extradited, but they've probably got some economically beneficial trade-offs.

Yep

NATO - News: Press statement following the meeting between Türkiye, Sweden, and the NATO Secretary General, 10-Jul.-2023

 

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1678492761463353356?s=20

Edited July 10, 2023 by DesertFox

[DesertFox]

LOL!

 

 

[masc]

A new one for the list?

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Bad but definitely not as bad as a month ago. Cannot tell right away that the operation failed or failed to a minefield 

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I think much of eastern Ukraine has some tactical value in the ongoing war, but sadly little economic value for years. This is especially true of the more urbanized areas. 

Who wants to bet that Russia deliberately mines the most productive wheat and other agricultural areas to deny their use to Ukraine after the war?

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[DesertFox]

Not bad, not bad at all.

 

 

[sburke]

considering Turkey's relationship to Russia DESPITE being a NATO member, wonder why they didn't just decide to form the Baltic Treaty Organization with US, UK, Poland, Lithuania. Latvia, Estonia, Finland and Sweden with a formal invite to Ukraine pending the end of the war.

[Beleg85]

Reportedly Ukrainians are slowly crawling again north toward Soledar...they have circa 1km left.

Meanwhile there are rumours Russians are concentrating big forces on northern front; meanwhiel,thry are trying to push in several places in for example Kreminna. Mashovets made a post several days ago about size of their reserve, made from 1st Tank Army and 6 Army, but cannot see it now for some reason (lost track of his account in fb somewhere). Worth to remember about this space, while we all look at Zaporizhia and Bakhmut. Russian would love to make offensive on Kupyansk if only allowed to.

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Russian would love to make offensive anywhere if only allowed to.

Fixed that for ya

[cesmonkey]

22 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Reportedly Ukrainians are slowly crawling again north toward Soledar...they have circa 1km left.

Meanwhile there are rumours Russians are concentrating big forces on northern front; meanwhiel,thry are trying to push in several places in for example Kreminna. Mashovets made a post several days ago about size of their reserve, made from 1st Tank Army and 6 Army, but cannot see it now for some reason (lost track of his account in fb somewhere). Worth to remember about this space, while we all look at Zaporizhia and Bakhmut. Russian would love to make offensive on Kupyansk if only allowed to.

This is his telegram account:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu

[chuckdyke]

10 hours ago, Tux said:

Really?

Yes it was discussed or it was fair to shoot airborne while on their parachutes? That was in the country where I was born. The army was told to surrender while 90% had not fired a shot. The place where they had actually stopped the German army the soldiers were crying. Yes the army was not able to stop the Luftwaffe from bombing cities was the deciding factor. The land forces were not beaten at all Kurt Student the commander of the German Airborne was captured. The surgeon took actually the bullet out of his skull. Good old Kurt carried on afterwards. Using cluster munitions is now next. Ukraine has all the right to use them Imo. Somebody gave the right analogy like dropping a ton of wood on a forest fire in the Donbas. If it saves the life of only one Ukrainian soldier it is worth it. I trust that the Ukrainian army knows what they are doing. It is not by playing CM BS. 

[kevinkin]

This war is heading toward sticks and stones or a game of whack a mole:

War Zone:

Is Ukraine Using Old S-200 SAMs In The Land-Attack Role?
Russia claims Ukrainian S-200 SAMs were launched against ground targets as video emerged supposedly showing one of the strikes.

However, I bet on the UA being better at getting the most out what they have. Perhaps the RA is so reliant on arty that shortages will affect them more.   

 

 

[chuckdyke]

Good news.

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

This is his telegram account:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu

Yes, I mean his account on Facebook, there was one that published longer analysis every several days on average but lost it somewhere. Saw translation of his post on polish twitter and searched for original, where there were detailed units, numbers and positions of this Russian grouping, reportedly 45+k soldiers. I deleted my TG account some time ago too, phone started to behave in strange way. God only knows who is watching on this, after all, Russian-created media site.

 

Must also wholy concur with @Haiduk's opinion about Russian mainstream liberal opposition. They never stop to dissapoint...now Navalny team cries that cartoon dogs are spoofing their potentiall electorate. Volkov is and always was a walking joke, but I respected Maria Pevchik slightly more...well, I guess was wrong.

https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1678027419502903297

Edited July 11, 2023 by Beleg85

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Fixed that for ya

True, but I would not exclude they may indeed want to conduct larger offensive operations- their doctrine always favoured offense + political pressure may be growing again. They certainly do not lay only low on northern front, licking their wounds, but actively try to push in some places. According to Mashovets post (via earlier-mentioned Twitter) this force around 1 Tank Army theoretically can have:

- personel - 49978

- tanks - do 417

- APCs and IFV- 648

-Artillery(100 mm and larger) - 342

-MLRS - 125

They loom for some time already somewhere visa-a-vis Kupyannsk and Kreminna. I think this may be one of reasons why Ukrainians did commited so few of their brigades in the south. Even if they are half-trained and numbers are overestimated, this is still force to be reckon with.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

True, but I would not exclude they may indeed want to conduct larger offensive operations- their doctrine always favoured offense + political pressure may be growing again. They certainly do not lay only low on northern front, licking their wounds, but actively try to push in some places. According to Mashovets post (via earlier-mentioned Twitter) this force around 1 Tank Army theoretically can have:

- personel - 49978

- tanks - do 417

- APCs and IFV- 648

-Artillery(100 mm and larger) - 342

-MLRS - 125

They loom for some time already somewhere visa-a-vis Kupyannsk and Kreminna. I think this may be one of reasons why Ukrainians did commited so few of their brigades in the south. Even if they are half-trained and numbers are overestimated, this is still force to be reckon with.

I was being a bit tongue in cheek however I think the UA would love these guys to try an offensive, much easier to kill them.  The days of fearing a Russian offensive capability are long gone.

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Yes, I mean his account on Facebook, there was one that published longer analysis every several days on average but lost it somewhere. Saw translation of his post on polish twitter and searched for original, where there were detailed units, numbers and positions of this Russian grouping, reportedly 45+k soldiers. I deleted my TG account some time ago too, phone started to behave in strange way. God only knows who is watching on this, after all, Russian-created media site.

 

Must also wholy concur with @Haiduk's opinion about Russian mainstream liberal opposition. They never stop to dissapoint...now Navalny team cries that cartoon dogs are spoofing their potentiall electorate. Volkov is and always was a walking joke, but I respected Maria Pevchik slightly more...well, I guess was wrong.

https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1678027419502903297

On his telegram channel, he provides a link to his Facebook account:
https://www.facebook.com/pashtetof

It appears he shares the same posts on both Facebook and his telegram account.

I don't have a telegram account. I just view the site in my browser on my Linux PC.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

True, but I would not exclude they may indeed want to conduct larger offensive operations- their doctrine always favoured offense + political pressure may be growing again. They certainly do not lay only low on northern front, licking their wounds, but actively try to push in some places. According to Mashovets post (via earlier-mentioned Twitter) this force around 1 Tank Army theoretically can have:

- personel - 49978

- tanks - do 417

- APCs and IFV- 648

-Artillery(100 mm and larger) - 342

-MLRS - 125

They loom for some time already somewhere visa-a-vis Kupyannsk and Kreminna. I think this may be one of reasons why Ukrainians did commited so few of their brigades in the south. Even if they are half-trained and numbers are overestimated, this is still force to be reckon with.

This supposed Russian offensive has been rumored for some time now.  At least a month.  In fact, we wondered if it had already started because of the uptick in attacks.  With Russia it is hard to know for sure because their big offensives kinda look a lot like a bunch of unsuccessful local attacks.

1st Tank Army has been destroyed twice already.  Whatever its theoretical headcount is, I bet it isn't more than maybe 1/3rd of that.  Equipment could be even worse, maybe 1/4 overall, with the counts being higher for tanks (maybe) and artillery.  Speculation, but isn't everything these days?

As for Russia's plans, there's two reasons for them attacking in Luhansk.  First, Russia's primary political goal appears to remain taking over Luhansk and Donetsk.  Retaking significant ground in Luhansk would also have a very nice feel to it considering Ukraine took so much of it  back last year.  Second, just like Ukraine benefits from distracting Russian forces, Russia benefits from distracting Ukrainian forces.  An attack from the far opposite side of the front is a logical move.

The problem with both of these aims is that the first is so unlikely to happen that just thinking about it makes me giggle   Sure, it is possible that Russia might retake a bit of Luhansk if they invest enough into it, but really... how likely is it they will take anything significant?  Very unlikely.  As for the second goal, for sure a large scale Russian offensive would divert at least some of Ukraine's attention.  However, if it goes as well as any of their other offensives, it won't divert that much.

Steve

[Joe982]

Regarding the supposed upcoming Russian offensive, large troop movements would be picked up by satellite.

As we have no access to  data from these satellites, so we cannot know but the Ukranians would know.

.

 

[dan/california]

Quote

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/07/lockheed-martin-takes-next-step-toward-pac-3-mse-integration-with-aegis/

PAC-3 MSE’s unmatched Hit-to-Kill capabilities defends against advanced threats including tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and aircraft. Currently, the PAC-3 MSE program is ramping up to 550 MSEs a year, with plans to continue growing. In 2022, Lockheed Martin opened a new 85,000-square-foot building expansion at the Camden, Arkansas, facility to support increased production capacity for PAC-3 MSE.

 

More is definitely better, but I suspect the Chinese make ship killing missiles rather faster than this. 

Quote

https://www.ft.com/content/e04398d7-b4d4-4951-963c-6bd33665ff8e

BAE Systems secures UK order to boost output of battlefield munitions

 

Britain actually, finally, putting out a contract to install a new line and increase 155 artillery production by a factor of eight. If they had done this a year ago they might have a leg to stand on regarding objecting DPICM to Ukraine. I mean we have only been having the problem since WW1.

Quote

 

https://today-in-wwi.tumblr.com/post/118965449323/exposé-on-shell-shortage-appears-in-the-times-of

Sir John gave Repington a large trove of (edited) correspondence between GHQ and the War Office on munitions, and on May 12 sent his secretary and aide-de-camp to London with the same information to meet with Bonar Law (the opposition leader) and Lloyd George (Asquith’s rival in the Cabinet). On May 14, Repington’s article was published in The Times, with headline "NEED FOR SHELLS: BRITISH ATTACK CHECKED: LIMITED SUPPLIES THE CAUSE.” He blamed the defeat at Aubers Ridge solely on the lack of high explosive shells and heavy artillery to fire them, which could have destroyed the strong German positions. Repington backed this up with information clearly from official sources. 

 

And yet every time, in the first week of the war, shell/munition usage numbers go up the chain to higher command. Every time Pentagon/MOD people faint with shock.