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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

As always, primary sort stuff from Tatarigami. Analysis of Russian document regarding their AFU tactics. Russians clearly doctrinally try to catch up with developments, curious how this war will influence their military theories taught at academies in long run.

Also folks, if you don't wanna sign a blood pact with Elon, remember of this useful and simple tool: https://nitter.net/

 

Interesting read and I presume reasonably accurate.  Certainly looks similar to the infamous 47th Mech Brigade's attack that went sideways.

I was very interested to read what the Russian's propose for countering all of this.  I think they based it on their response to the 47th as this was, as far as we know, the most successful engagement thus far.  Before I finished reading I thought it doesn't seem very practical.  As Tatarigami posted, this presumes Russian forces have a rather wide array of capable forces available to defend a fairly small sector of frontage AND that they have complex C2 established to coordinate their actions in the heat of battle.  That's a lot of things that need to be in place for these tactics to work.  Hence, largely impractical.

The manual doesn't talk about Ukraine's shift to breaching with a more heavily dismounted infantry force.  Much of what was outlined in the booklet doesn't seem applicable to that sort of a situation.

Steve

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27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

More Russians in pure black clothing. Curious.

Steve

Aren't a lot of Rosgvardia uniforms mostly black? They could either be desperate enough to send a bunch more of them to the front? Or maybe they just had a stack of the uniforms that were handiest thing to hand out?

 

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16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting read and I presume reasonably accurate.  Certainly looks similar to the infamous 47th Mech Brigade's attack that went sideways.

I was very interested to read what the Russian's propose for countering all of this.  I think they based it on their response to the 47th as this was, as far as we know, the most successful engagement thus far.  Before I finished reading I thought it doesn't seem very practical.  As Tatarigami posted, this presumes Russian forces have a rather wide array of capable forces available to defend a fairly small sector of frontage AND that they have complex C2 established to coordinate their actions in the heat of battle.  That's a lot of things that need to be in place for these tactics to work.  Hence, largely impractical.

The manual doesn't talk about Ukraine's shift to breaching with a more heavily dismounted infantry force.  Much of what was outlined in the booklet doesn't seem applicable to that sort of a situation.

Steve

My read on it was that it's the kind of thing that a fairly well trained and and highly motivated force could do effectively (i.e. Ukraine's army) but I can't see how it wouldn't break down in a force of mixed capabilities with uneven training, bad motivation and endemic distrust between formation commands. I would be very surprised to find out that this was being adopted on any scale and even more surprised to find out it was actually accomplished. 

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6 hours ago, DesertFox said:

From another tweet with the same clip

 

Quote

As said, the use of the captured Russian TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" by the Ukrainian military against Russian positions a few days ago

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1677774741145370625

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Watch this space. As I've argued elsewhere, it's quite likely that Prigozhin was representative of a large faction and that rather than that faction wanting to have a full bore coup, they wanted to renegotiate the terms of Putin's power. Without extraordinary krisha, there is no universe in which Prigozhin in not dead, Wagner is not dispersed/disarmed and MoD/Rosgvardia are not being purged. And yet. 

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We have something unique here. A Jump from Tyranny straight to Anarchy without Democracy in between. Socrates would be puzzled watching Russia today. Churchill also had a good analogy about the Kremlin. To put it in US English like watching two Pitbull's fighting underneath the carpet. Lift the carpet up after the growling and gnashing stops to find out who won. 

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44 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

We have something unique here. A Jump from Tyranny straight to Anarchy without Democracy in between. Socrates would be puzzled watching Russia today. Churchill also had a good analogy about the Kremlin. To put it in US English like watching two Pitbull's fighting underneath the carpet. Lift the carpet up after the growling and gnashing stops to find out who won. 

Actually that has happened any number of times, the Chinese are particularly adept at it. 

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1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Watch this space. As I've argued elsewhere, it's quite likely that Prigozhin was representative of a large faction and that rather than that faction wanting to have a full bore coup, they wanted to renegotiate the terms of Putin's power. Without extraordinary krisha, there is no universe in which Prigozhin in not dead, Wagner is not dispersed/disarmed and MoD/Rosgvardia are not being purged. And yet. 

So this brings us to the next question, can whatever faction that is sort of in charge be convinced to get out of Ukraine? Or are they going to keep the meat grinder running until Russia doesn't have enough state capacity left to keep itself together? Because those seem to be the two most likely outcomes.

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18 hours ago, danfrodo said:

RU is sowing the entire front, hundreds of kms, w thousands and thousands of mines yet not a peep from anyone.

This sentiment has been repeated a number of times recently - I really don’t understand what incisive point is supposedly being made.

I mean, is it that the Russians are the bad guys? Well, sure? They’ve been the bad guys for a while now. And in other breaking developments; water remains wet.

One expects the bad guys to do the bad things. That is, after all, why they are considered to be the bad guys, and in that respect it’s barely noteworthy. One does not expect the good guys to do the bad things, so when they do it is noteworthy in a way that it isn’t for the Russians. Think “dog bites man” vs. “man bites dog.”

Would it help if I edited my sig strap line to include a proforma “… and of course the Russians continue to do bad things!”? That way every post would include a peep from someone, and maybe then this particular strawman can be retired.

Edited by JonS
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9 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Good lord where in the sweet seven hells did this stupid sand/hourglass crap come from?  Yes, I expect they are going to be doing saturation as well.  Going to be interesting to see if it works.

 I have another one for you: Putin has become entangled in his relationship with Prigozhin and resembles a king at chess who moves across the field with only two pawns left. He can no longer win and his time is running out

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The problem with "being concerned with giving Ukraine cluster munitions" is that the reason they are getting it is that we (the West) are running out of the non-cluster munitions that are possible to give. We should have built more factories, we should have had more stockpiles, we should have given Ukraine more sooner so the Russians didn't have time to dig in, whatever - but now there's a shortage and the dual purpose rounds are the one way to plug it short term we have.

The alternative to giving Ukraine cluster munitions is not giving them different, non-cluster munitions. The alternative is that they get nothing, more Ukrainians will die needlessly and Ukraine will possibly lose, sentencing anyone on the occupied territories to Russian terror and genocide, not to mention all the international repercussions of showing the West as weak and rules-based world order as a farce.

Would it be better to give Ukraine the same amount of ammo in non-cluster versions? Yes. But it seems we can't do that (for reasons that should be fixed for sure, but likely can't be fixed in the short term). So it's either dual purpose or nothing.

I say dual purpose.

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Cluster munitions are not nice, they are not meant to be nice. What is also not nice is clearing trenches in which you see your mates killed. I understand a cluster load can clear a football area of trenches. It is what the Ukraine needs to get rid of the Russians. Tell me if I am wrong. Russia, the Ukraine and the US never signed or were part of an agreement to outlaw cluster munitions. Just the way I see it.

Edited by chuckdyke
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Quote

On a hilltop near the occupied southern Ukrainian town of Polohy, Russian forces set up an observation point that can spot Ukrainian soldiers more than 6 miles away. Four times, Ukrainian forces destroyed the Murom-M surveillance system, said Lt. Col. Oleksiy Telehin, of Ukraine's 108 th Territorial Defense brigade.

 

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Ukraine will switch to a contract army after the end of the war, there will be no conscription - Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov.

 

"The entire Soviet heritage, which is still now in the Ukrainian military commissions, needs to be fundamentally changed, a different approach should be taken, maximum digitization should be done. We need to cancel the call, make a clear layer-by-layer reserve register in the event of a full-scale war. This means that our main capital is people, and with this needs to be worked on," –– the minister said

 

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1677975749133844480?t=PbQJJn53Ei6ZhI_Oe6UZGQ&s=19

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2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Cluster munitions are not nice, they are not meant to be nice. What is also not nice is clearing trenches in which you see your mates killed. I understand a cluster load can clear a football area of trenches. It is what the Ukraine needs to get rid of the Russians. Tell me if I am wrong. Russia, the Ukraine and the US never signed or were part of an agreement to outlaw cluster munitions. Just the way I see it.

I think the point is that cluster munitions are not much good at clearing trenches. However their supply may allow Ukraine to avoid firing what may be scarce standard artillery rounds at targets caught in the open (which cluster munitions are better suited for).

 As regards potential damage to the western alliance, I think the fact that many friendly nations have signed the treaty means they have committed not to encourage, aid or be any part of cluster munition use. That’s why we see allies of Ukraine currently struggling to properly condemn this move and avoid being part of the supply chain while maintaining support for Ukraine generally. For what it’s worth I think this is also why the Ukrainian Defence Ministry are releasing statements acknowledging the concerns of most/many of their allies and articulating what they’re going to do about it. 

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21 minutes ago, Tux said:

I think the point is that cluster munitions are not much good at clearing trenches.

Still, DPICM would be very effective against the entrenched Russian formations arrayed in depth that the Ukrainians are trying to overcome, Shoffner said.  Because these munitions cover such a wide area, they also require less precise targeting information than Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems.

All of the article. They need to breach the Russian trench system.

Why the US is considering giving Ukraine cluster munitions (taskandpurpose.com)

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