How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

Pie in the sky, but I wonder if this type of comms set up could be use in terrestrial combat of the the future. There is understandable concern that HQs and communications are too easily found and disrupted. The key would be the middle man remote ground vehicle which is in constant movement transmitting from the front to decision makers. Maybe this reminds me of something already in development. Anyway, I find this story inspiring:

https://mars.nasa.gov/news/9430/nasas-ingenuity-mars-helicopter-phones-home/?utm_source=iContact&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nasas-mars-public-engagement-team&utm_content=20230705MarsNewsletter

Edited July 8, 2023 by kevinkin

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes, it all depends on what's going on behind the scenes. I can only speculate. But I still wonder if Russia would be able to take such serious losses without the frontline moving more than it does.

Also, I wonder if most of Russian losses are nothing but cheap and expendable manpower. It is probably much cheaper to replace a Russian soldier than to eliminate him. And I think Russia might have mobilised many more troops than the official numbers indicate.

Again, just speculation. But based on the only thing we can be reasonably sure of: The frontlines have not moved very much for a month now.

One has to remember that military systems are highly redundant and over-engineered (yes, even Russian ones).  So if the UA is effectively eroding the RA system of defence we are going to be seeing different indicators of this. Also we need to be watching for stuff we are not seeing but should be.  So stuff like:

- Russian logistics and artillery losses that lead to observable shortfalls

- Lack or shortfalls in RA c-moves.  Or RA c-moves that look like scrambles or dyke plugging (these lateral shift cause enormous disruptions)

- continued denial and loss of AirPower assets.

- RA loss of high profile and high value systems - EW, ISR and Engr

- Indicators that RA morale is flagging - desertions and surrenders.

- shortfalls in the RA medical support system

All this (and more) need to add up over time in order for the RA system to buckle.  Once it fails though it has to fall into a lower energy state in order to sustain and avoid a cascade failure.  We normally call these fall-back positions.  

Corrosive warfare is not just attrition warfare.  Attrition warfare is a grinding of the front end of a system until exhaustion sets in.  Corrosive warfare needs ISR and precision to hit the entire operational system at key nodes of capability - you are essentially de-constructing their operational system.  You need to do this at a rate that those nodes cannot be re-built or shifted.  It takes time do this and compared to rapid manoeuvre and annihilation seems like it may be going nowhere.  However, compared to real attrition warfare which can take years it appears it may happen much faster in the contemporary context. (ie months)

[Haiduk]

17 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Clip from reportedly Russian atillery doing pre-planned mission, but in fact it looks like Russians made their own "death-trench" rigged with explosives to lure Ukrainian soldiers into. They unfortunatelly succeeded.

 

This happened on northern outskirt of Zherebyanky village - next toward west from Pyatykhatky. Acording to Russian TG the village was taken by UKR troops yesterday, but no more information about this from both sides. 

According to one of soldiers, this was really mined trench. In result of explosions 2 KIA, 10 WIA. If this was really position of BARS-32 named after Sudoplatov as it says logo on the video (this is local Zaporizhzhia oblast collaborators battalion, established in Melitopol), then they have good chances not to be captured...

Edited July 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

There are days…

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-condemns-use-of-cluster-munitions-following-u-s-decision-to-send-weapon-to-ukraine-1.6471584

So my read is poopy faces and preaching.  But I seriously doubt we are going to cut aid as that would be an incredibly politically provocative thing to take on.  

[FancyCat]

The RU bloggers are going to be pissed….clearly Ukraine is attempting to further internal divisions in Russia and Turkey seems happy to assist. 

[cesmonkey]

11 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

The RU bloggers are going to be pissed….clearly Ukraine is attempting to further internal divisions in Russia and Turkey seems happy to assist. 

WarGonzo speculates it's posturing with respect to the grain deal:
 

Quote

WarGonzo

️Important️War criminals return to Ukraine️

The commanders of the Azov banned in the Russian Federation and the 36th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine returned to Ukraine from Turkey, who, according to the initial agreement of the parties, were to be visiting the Turkish authorities until the end of the NMD.

Perhaps this is Turkey's response to the termination of the grain deal, the extension of which may or may not take place in less than a few weeks. Turkish partners may know about the decision of the Russian governments to abolish the grain corridor, and with this gesture they want to hint at their awareness.

But all this is just speculation. Whether we are right or not, we will find out very soon, after the official statements of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Government of Russia.

 

[pintere]

37 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

There are days…

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-condemns-use-of-cluster-munitions-following-u-s-decision-to-send-weapon-to-ukraine-1.6471584

So my read is poopy faces and preaching.  But I seriously doubt we are going to cut aid as that would be an incredibly politically provocative thing to take on.  

Maybe they can propose a counteroffer that would involve turning over all their Leo tanks to Ukraine.

[A Canadian Cat]

1 hour ago, IanL said:

On 7/6/2023 at 12:39 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1676645500781469711.html

Ooops looks like this is it. Cool

Sigh, seemed good but I cannot get it to work. Ah well.

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

WarGonzo speculates it's posturing with respect to the grain deal:
 

 

Well, for sure Turkey isn't doing this for the fun of it.  And saying Turkey would welcome Ukraine into NATO is also not being done without a big reason.  That's two major things out of Turkey in as many days.  What this means, I don't know, but it certainly means something or somethings.

I think WarGonzo's speculation is as good as any right now.  "Russia, you think you can change deals whenever you want?  Well, two can play that game".

As for the Ukraine/NATO comment, that could be something entirely different or it could be related.  Turkey is not my area of expertise so I can't speculate beyond that.

Steve

[chris talpas]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

There are days…

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-condemns-use-of-cluster-munitions-following-u-s-decision-to-send-weapon-to-ukraine-1.6471584

So my read is poopy faces and preaching.  But I seriously doubt we are going to cut aid as that would be an incredibly politically provocative thing to take on.  

Oh if only an election were around the corner.  Fits into his M.O. of vacuous moral high ground platitudes.

[chris talpas]

28 minutes ago, pintere said:

Maybe they can propose a counteroffer that would involve turning over all their Leo tanks to Ukraine.

But that would mean he might need to spend more than 1.4% GDP to replace them.  Thank God McKenzie King was made of sterner stuff than Justin.  (WW2 reference for our non-Canuckistan members)

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Also, I wonder if most of Russian losses are nothing but cheap and expendable manpower. It is probably much cheaper to replace a Russian soldier than to eliminate him.

Yeah, except it's pretty clear that Russia is losing a lot of artillery systems.  I haven't seen an artillery loss graph over time in a while, but from various sources (including Oryx) the numbers are very large and constant relative to any other period of this war.

This is significant because artillery is the primary means of covering the minefields.  Without artillery minefields are reduced to a dangerous annoyance rather than a deadly barrier.

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

And I think Russia might have mobilised many more troops than the official numbers indicate.

Officially mobilized?  No, those numbers are not in dispute.  Russia called up what it called up and it was over a long time ago.  What ISW calls the "stealth mobilization", however, is certainly still cranking along with volunteers and prisoners.  The numbers are significant, but insufficient for them to build up reserves of any size.  They are mostly being used as replacements and cannon fodder.

Steve

[danfrodo]

Cluster munitions are terrible.  And UKR needs them.  These are contradictions and are both true.  What else can ya say?  RU is causing way more deaths every week than errant cluster munitions will over the entire future.  And like has been pointed out here already, RU is sowing the entire front, hundreds of kms, w thousands and thousands of mines yet not a peep from anyone.

Meanwhile, I suspect NATO & UKR are doing everything they can to find ways to overcome mines.  HOpefully there's a lot of gear being sent that we're not hearing about.

Edited July 8, 2023 by danfrodo

[sburke]

‘Russia is a bizarre country’: Historian Nina Khruscheva on a strange few weeks in Moscow (yahoo.com)

[pintere]

20 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

But that would mean he might need to spend more than 1.4% GDP to replace them.  Thank God McKenzie King was made of sterner stuff than Justin.  (WW2 reference for our non-Canuckistan members)

Or not. We need them for what again? Now that Denmark has shipped off all their Caesars to Ukraine I think we can assume that they’re pretty toothless in the event of any more arctic territorial disputes.

And if the USA ever decides it wants to launch its own special military operation then our remaining ~80 Leopard 2s won’t save us.

[Battlefront.com]

A reminder why it is proper to be critical of free market economics in times like these:

Quote

U.S. companies in Russia were the largest tax contributors to the Russian government among corporations based in any other country last year as Moscow’s war in Ukraine progressed, according to a new report. 

The report from B4Ukraine, a coalition of civil society groups working to cut off Russia’s ability to continue the war, and the Kyiv School of Economics found American firms paid $712 million in taxes in Russia in 2022, having brought in the largest total revenue of any foreign country.

...

German firms were the second-largest tax contributors to Russia, paying $402 million in taxes on profits last year. 

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4086790-us-businesses-were-largest-tax-contributors-to-russia-among-international-companies-in-2022-report/

Here is the report itself:

https://b4ukraine.org/what-we-do/business-of-staying

Grr.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, pintere said:

Or not. We need them for what again? Now that Denmark has shipped off all their Caesars to Ukraine I think we can assume that they’re pretty toothless in the event of any more arctic territorial disputes.

Never underestimate the Danes!  They are a tricky and cagey bunch.  I should know, I'm 25% Dane

3 minutes ago, pintere said:

And if the USA ever decides it wants to launch its own special military operation then our remaining ~80 Leopard 2s won’t save us.

Ironically the forest fires might.  Why invade a place only to have it burn itself down?

Steve

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's two major things out of Turkey in as many days.  What this means, I don't know, but it certainly means something or somethings.

Likely some business preferences in Ukrainian Crimea, maybe something related with future of Crimean Tatars role in Crimea... who knows... 

PS. Russian TG version:

A source close to Roman Abramovich told unpleasant news: Turkey made decision to drift toward collective West because of Putin doesn't keep promises, given through Abramovich. And because of this Erdogan has announced a visit of president [Putin] to Turkey in August. Today's meeting of Abramovich [with MoD and FSB], directed to give a message to Russian establishment, that if we continue the war, that our last ally will turn away of us. Sending Azov commander to home this is first gesture of Erdogan, showing that jokes with him are bad.  

 

Edited July 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

About cluster munitions - Soviet Union had wide nomenclature of such ammo for all artillery assets, but among videos I didn't see wide usage of this ammuntion type neither from Russian side, nor from Ukrainian. DPCIM munition widely uses only by MLRS now maybe only by Russians, because probably all of UKR cluster ammunition for MLRS was destroyed in 2016-2017 in explosions on main arsenals and remains were quickly exhausted during first months of war)

Maybe DPCIM was more technologically hard and expensive for manufacturing, so number of artillery cluster munition was realtively small in comparison with traditional HE and HEFRAG ammo.

 

Edited July 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

One guy's opinion on the futility of war against a determined/enslaved/threatened/nothing to lose enemy:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/07/i-fired-cluster-munitions-in-combat-they-wont-win-the-war-in-ukraine/

What conditions will have to be met before Ukraine commits to using those western brigades? They are their ace in the hole to guard the bulk of the country. What a brave decision it will be. 

 

 

[Haiduk]

Today we have 500 days of full-scale war and a birthday - 50 years of Valeriy Zaluzhnyi

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, IanL said:

Sigh, seemed good but I cannot get it to work. Ah well.

Go to the home site, https://threadreaderapp.com/

and type in, e.g., DefMon3 or Tatarigami. It should search out a list of threads. Click on the author's name (black, not the blue link, that will just take you to the Twitter login) once you've found the correct one and the next page should open a link containing his threads in reverse chron, but it won't show the rest of his feed (individual tweets and RTs).

... This method may not give all the latest threads either, but it's the best way I know of.

Edited July 8, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[A Canadian Cat]

20 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Go to the home site, https://threadreaderapp.com/

and type in, e.g., DefMon3 or Tatarigami. It should search out a list of threads

Ah sweet. Thanks. I tried the procedure to request an unroll on a twitter thread and it never did anything. Searching like this will be helpful.

[Haiduk]

Destroyed Russian column near Chervonopopivka, Luhansk oblast, northern flank of Kreminna direction.

According to some our servicemen claims Kreminna direction now is more hot than Zaporizhzhia, because Russians are desperately attacking and situation is very dynamic. Especially in forestry area on southern flank, where positions can change owner several times along days or even hours.  

Russians activated attacks on Kreminna, Svatove and Kupiansk directions, also they  significantly increased shellings of border areas of Sumy oblast and attemts of recon-diversion groups infiltrating. All this doing to attract reserves from southern front.  

Edited July 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[billbindc]