How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, JonS said:

Dum dums. Chemical. Biological. Carpet bombing Moscow. Go for it. It's all on the table.

Do you spend a *lot* of time looking into the abyss?

Supposedly the US doesn't possess either chemical or biological weapons, and as far as I know dum-dum small arms rounds (which is what I think you are referring to) don't exist in the military supply chain either.  Defacto means they aren't on the table any more than sharks with f'n laser beams on their heads are.

Steve

[DesertFox]

16 minutes ago, JonS said:

Dum dums. Chemical. Biological. Carpet bombing Moscow. Go for it. It's all on the table.

Do you spend a *lot* of time looking into the abyss?

Yep, thats my hobby 

[dan/california]

Russian artillerists demonstrated an excellent case of friendly fire on Orikhiv direction. These are interceptions of Russian conversations while it happened. I've made a translation for you.

 

I wonder if this is the usual Russian incompetence? Or if Ukraine is starting take advantage of Russia's abysmal coms situation and feeding in bad orders. It would be rather special if the battery was talking to someone it thought was Granite, and he was calmly saying repeat mission, your killing them. Of course who them is is rather important.

[NamEndedAllen]

In the latest example of 'unconventional' improvised Ukrainian weapons, we now have video of the contraption made of half a dozen AK-74 assault rifles in action. This follows footage released two days ago which showed the same weapon, but did not depict it firing. It is now one of a variety of improvised small arms solutions — some more relevant than others — that have been pressed into service as counter-drone weapons by Ukrainian forces.  
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/watch-six-ak-74s-strapped-together-as-a-ukrainian-anti-drone-gun-in-action

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

We are really seeing the changed accounting in effect. 

That is ridiculously large amount of hardware for 800million...

The one that caught my eye was the 31x 155 Howitzers.  That's quite a significant number in one go.  IIRC we haven't seen that sort of thing since last year, though I could be wrong.

A battalion's worth of Strykers and another of Brads is also nice to see.

This is yet another stick in the eye of the Russian production doomsayers.  In one go at one time the US and its allies can ship Ukraine a full year's worth of pre-war production.  Even more fun is to consider that Russia is losing its vehicles at a faster rate than Ukraine is, which means Ukraine is closing the numbers gap.  In fact, some OSINT source I saw yesterday claimed that Ukraine now has more tanks in service than Russia does.  Hard to know if it's true, but it certainly doesn't bode well for Russia if we're not absolutely sure that's wrong.

BTW, when poking around for something I discovered (or was reminded of?) Ukraine destroyed a BMP-T "Terminator" last February:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/09/the-ukrainian-army-just-blew-up-one-of-russias-10-terminator-fighting-vehicles/?sh=651fd39b14ee

Steve

[DesertFox]

 

[Fenris]

Be nice if ATACMS were hiding in the HIMARS ammo line item.

It's a good list of gear, thr 155's will help a lot. I wonder how many grenades UKR is going through.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Fenris

[JonS]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

some OSINT source I saw yesterday claimed that Ukraine now has more tanks in service than Russia does.

To paraphrase; from second largest army in the world, to second largest army in Ukraine.

Edited July 7, 2023 by JonS

[DesertFox]

I know some folks seem to have a short attention span, therefore a reminder what the Orcs did last year (14/03/2022) in Kharkiv with cluster ammo.

 https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1503498324132966401?s=20

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

To paraphrase; from second largest army in the world, to second largest Army in Ukraine.

And it's also the second best

Steve

[cesmonkey]

Enjoy this Russian response to the supplying of DPICM to Urkaine:

https://t.me/SolovievLive/193716
 

Quote

️The US plans to supply not bombs, but cluster munitions for 155mm howitzers. Including, for the deplorable M-777. From a technical point of view, this is a very interesting ammunition. It has 72 striking elements. Each of them is capable of penetrating 70 mm of armor. Range - 27-28 kilometers. This is serious.

Kirill Fedorov, military expert, live on Solovyov LIVE

 

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And it's also the second best

Steve

and second best in Russia right?  

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

And I was thinking UKR was doomed because lost ~6 brads.  Oh, wait, I guess not. 

We haven't seen any strykers yet in action, have we?  I saw where AMX10s were being criticized for low armor but I always thought of AMX10s as simply a stryker-type vehicle w a big gun, so I am not understanding why folks are criticizing it for not being a tank.  If UKR can get a good breakthough somewhere it will have some really good mobile forces for exploitation.

Meanwhile, we hear of progress in Bakhmut.  Other than attrition does anyone see any kind of operational level success that can be had in the Bakhmut region?  Maybe cut off some RU troops, which is more attrition, of course, but what can really happen in that sector that would change things in a big way?

 

[DesertFox]

 

Whole text of Reznikovs clarification:

1. Ukraine will use these munitions only for the de-occupation of our internationally recognised territories. These munitions will not be used on the officially recognized territory of russia.

2. We will not be using cluster munitions in urban areas (cities) to avoid the risks for the civilian populations - these are our people, they are Ukrainians we have a duty to protect. Cluster munitions will be used only in the fields where there is a concentration of russian military. They will be used to break through the enemy defence lines with minimum risk for the lives of our soldiers. Saving the lives of our troops, even during extremely difficult offensive operations, remains our top priority.

3. Ukraine will keep a strict record of the use of these weapons and the local zones where they will be used.

4. Based on these records, after the de-occupation of our territories and our victory these territories will be prioritised for the purposes of de-mining. This will enable us to eradicate the risk from the unexploded elements of cluster munitions. The Minister of Defence of Ukraine is by law acting as the Head of the national de-mining agency. In this capacity I will ensure the implementation of the relevant legal framework for the de-mining process after our victory.

5. We will report to our partners about the use of these munitions, and about their efficiency to ensure the appropriate standard of transparent reporting and control.

https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1677410470108471298?s=20

Edited July 7, 2023 by DesertFox

[DesertFox]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

We haven't seen any strykers yet in action, have we?

Not a single one. CV90 vids a few, but none localized.

 

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1677366855810392072?s=20

[kluge]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

We haven't seen any strykers yet in action, have we?

Oryx counts 0 Stryker losses.

As a comparison, Oryx counts 36 M113 losses.

[DesertFox]

Sorokyne / Luhansk. Possibly Stormshadow

 

 

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1677414660256018432?s=20

 

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by DesertFox

[The_MonkeyKing]

Let's hope the DPICMs headed to Ukraine pack a punch that was sorely missing in CMCW. 

[Tux]

15 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

Whole text of Reznikovs clarification:

1. Ukraine will use these munitions only for the de-occupation of our internationally recognised territories. These munitions will not be used on the officially recognized territory of russia.

2. We will not be using cluster munitions in urban areas (cities) to avoid the risks for the civilian populations - these are our people, they are Ukrainians we have a duty to protect. Cluster munitions will be used only in the fields where there is a concentration of russian military. They will be used to break through the enemy defence lines with minimum risk for the lives of our soldiers. Saving the lives of our troops, even during extremely difficult offensive operations, remains our top priority.

3. Ukraine will keep a strict record of the use of these weapons and the local zones where they will be used.

4. Based on these records, after the de-occupation of our territories and our victory these territories will be prioritised for the purposes of de-mining. This will enable us to eradicate the risk from the unexploded elements of cluster munitions. The Minister of Defence of Ukraine is by law acting as the Head of the national de-mining agency. In this capacity I will ensure the implementation of the relevant legal framework for the de-mining process after our victory.

5. We will report to our partners about the use of these munitions, and about their efficiency to ensure the appropriate standard of transparent reporting and control.

https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1677410470108471298?s=20

Now this is a comment from someone who understands the risks of using DPICM but, rather than take offence when people point them out, coolly articulates how the weapons’ use shall be controlled in order to mitigate those risks.

Never expected anything different but still, this is satisfying to read.

[Tenses]

Were AIM-7 supplied before? I haven't noticed that in previous packages.

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Let's hope the DPICMs headed to Ukraine pack a punch that was sorely missing in CMCW. 

Forgive them Lord, for they know not what they are talking about.  

But seriously can we not jump on the “THIS WILL SWEEP THE RUSSIANS FROM THE EARTH!!!” band wagon again.  And then when they do not result in immediate Ukrainian victory over a weekend we don’t have to do the “OMG Ukraine is DOOOMED because my favourite weapon/system/vehicle of the week is not chasing the Russians back to Moscow!!”

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Forgive them Lord, for they know not what they are talking about.  

But seriously can we not jump on the “THIS WILL SWEEP THE RUSSIANS FROM THE EARTH!!!” band wagon again.  And then when they do not result in immediate Ukrainian victory over a weekend we don’t have to do the “OMG Ukraine is DOOOMED because my favourite weapon/system/vehicle of the week is not chasing the Russians back to Moscow!!”

Indeed.

I just couldn't resist making that joke on CMCW

[cesmonkey]

16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Forgive them Lord, for they know not what they are talking about.  

But seriously can we not jump on the “THIS WILL SWEEP THE RUSSIANS FROM THE EARTH!!!” band wagon again.  And then when they do not result in immediate Ukrainian victory over a weekend we don’t have to do the “OMG Ukraine is DOOOMED because my favourite weapon/system/vehicle of the week is not chasing the Russians back to Moscow!!”

So then ... is this correct interpretation of their significance?
 

 

[Beleg85]

Clip from reportedly Russian atillery doing pre-planned mission, but in fact it looks like Russians made their own "death-trench" rigged with explosives to lure Ukrainian soldiers into. They unfortunatelly succeeded.

 

[FancyCat]

Biden has stated Ukraine is running out of ammo.

Quote

"It took me a while to be convinced to do it," President Biden tells @FareedZakaria about his decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine as its ammunition supply runs low.